Will the war in Ukraine worsen global food shortages? | Inside Story

Summary

The war in Ukraine has caused a dramatic increase in global food and fuel prices, affecting 1.7 billion people, particularly in developing countries. Russia and Ukraine are key suppliers of wheat, barley, and sunflower oil, and the conflict has disrupted these supplies. The UN warns of a 'perfect storm' of crises, including food, energy, and finance, exacerbating existing challenges from climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic. The situation could lead to social unrest and calls for collective global action to address the crisis.

Takeaways

• 🌏 The war in Ukraine is exacerbating global crises, particularly affecting developing countries due to the disruption in food and fuel supplies.
• 📈 Russia and Ukraine are significant suppliers of wheat, barley, maize, and sunflower oil, and the war has driven up prices for these staples to record highs.
• 🚜 Disruptions in fertilizer exports from Russia and Belarus, who account for about one-fifth of global exports, have more than doubled their prices.
• 🌾 Eastern Africa, for instance, sources approximately 90% of its wheat from Ukraine and Russia, making it vulnerable to price shocks and supply uncertainties.
• 📊 Food prices are up by 34% compared to last year, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, impacting billions of people worldwide.
• 📈 Crude oil prices have risen by 60% compared to last year, further straining economies and increasing costs for developing countries.
• 🌐 The conflict is causing a three-dimensional crisis involving food, energy, and finance, which is hitting vulnerable populations and economies hard.
• 🌿 Climate change is also a significant factor contributing to the food crisis, with droughts and floods affecting food production in many regions.
• 💸 The economic impact of the war is delaying global recovery from the pandemic, with inflationary pressures expected to worsen.
• 🌱 The uncertainty in the global food supply and rising fertilizer prices threaten food production, potentially leading to food shortages and increased hunger.
• 🏦 The crisis could lead to social unrest, as high food prices were a trigger for past conflicts and can force people into negative coping mechanisms.

Q & A

What is being referred to as a 'perfect storm of crises' for developing countries?

The war in Ukraine is creating a 'perfect storm of crises' for developing countries by driving up global food and fuel prices, which could potentially lead to hunger for 1.7 billion people.

Why are Russia and Ukraine significant in the global food supply?

Russia and Ukraine are major food suppliers, producing about 30% of the world's wheat and barley. They also grow significant amounts of maize and sunflower oil that developing nations depend on.

How have food prices been affected since the beginning of the war in Ukraine?

Food prices have reached record highs since the war began in February, with prices for staple items like wheat increasing by 34% compared to the previous year.

What is the impact of the conflict and western sanctions on fertilizer exports?

The conflict and western sanctions have disrupted fertilizer exports from Russia and Belarus, causing their prices to more than double.

How does the war in Ukraine affect global oil and gas prices?

Global oil and gas prices have increased due to the war, as countries limit transactions with Russia, leading to a 40% increase in oil prices this year.

What challenges are developing countries already facing that are exacerbated by the war in Ukraine?

Developing countries are already struggling with challenges such as climate change, which has caused droughts and floods in regions like Eastern Africa, leading to a hunger crisis.

What is the potential economic impact of the war in Ukraine on the global economy?

The war could delay the global economic recovery from the pandemic, increase inflationary pressures, and lead to a potential global recession, especially if Russian gas supplies to Europe are disrupted.

How might the war in Ukraine affect investment in emerging markets?

Investors may become more wary of investing in emerging markets due to the increased uncertainty and potential for economic disruption caused by the war.

What is the concern regarding the potential for social unrest due to the current crises?

There is a concern that the rising food prices and economic hardships could lead to social unrest, as has been seen in the past with events like the Arab Spring, which were triggered by food price increases.

What measures are suggested to address the crises caused by the war in Ukraine?

Collective measures by all countries, including Russia, are needed to ensure uninterrupted food supplies to developing countries. Additionally, addressing the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine and supporting the Ukrainian people is crucial.

How long might it take for global food supply and prices to return to pre-pandemic levels after the war ends?

It is unlikely that global food supply and prices will return to pre-pandemic levels anytime soon, as the war has caused long-lasting disruptions to supply routes and trade dynamics.

Outlines

00:00

🌎 Global Impact of the Ukraine War

The paragraph discusses the profound effects of the war in Ukraine on the global scale, particularly on developing countries. It highlights the 'perfect storm' of crises caused by the conflict, including increased food and fuel prices, which could potentially lead to hunger for 1.7 billion people. The conversation emphasizes the importance of Russia and Ukraine as major suppliers of food and energy, with the war disrupting their exports and causing prices for staples like wheat, barley, maize, and sunflower oil to soar. The U.N. warns of a three-dimensional crisis involving food, energy, and finance, exacerbating existing struggles in developing nations. The guests include experts in food markets, development, and humanitarian aid, who discuss the immediate and long-term implications of the crisis.

05:02

📉 Economic Ramifications and Food Insecurity

This section delves into the economic repercussions of the war, with a focus on how it has worsened global food insecurity. The discussion points out that the global economy was already fragile due to the pandemic, and the war has only added to these pressures, delaying recovery. The conflict's impact on energy prices is noted, with a 40% increase in oil prices due to potential disruptions in Russian gas supplies. The conversation also addresses the significant rise in wheat prices, the importance of the planting season in Russia and Ukraine, and the potential for minimal exports from Ukraine, leading to global shortages. The panelists express concern about the long-term effects on food inflation and the global economy.

10:03

🌾 Disruptions in Agriculture and Fertilizer Markets

The paragraph focuses on the agricultural implications of the war in Ukraine, especially the disruption in the global fertilizer market. Russia's role as a major exporter of fertilizers is highlighted, and the potential impacts of trade disruptions and rising gas prices on fertilizer production are discussed. The conversation underscores the uncertainty surrounding supply and the need for importing countries to find alternative sources or face high prices. The panelists also discuss the broader geopolitical issues, infrastructure damage in Ukraine, and the challenges of predicting grain exports to the world market. The potential for social unrest due to food price increases is also mentioned, drawing parallels to past events like the Arab Spring.

15:03

💸 Struggles of Developing Economies and Debt

This section addresses the challenges faced by developing economies in the context of the war in Ukraine, particularly regarding debt financing. The discussion notes that many developing countries are already struggling with debt related to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the economic outlook is grim. The potential for debt default, as seen with Russia and Sri Lanka, is highlighted as a concern for investors, leading to a more conservative stance and reluctance to invest in developing economies. The panelists emphasize the need for a collective approach to address the crises and the importance of ensuring uninterrupted food supplies for developing countries.

20:04

🌱 Sustainable Food Systems and Global Interconnectedness

The final paragraph discusses the need for sustainable food systems and the importance of global interconnectedness in addressing the crises. The conversation recognizes that while the Ukraine crisis has a significant global impact, other crises such as those in Yemen, Afghanistan, and South Sudan also demand attention. The panelists discuss the multiplier effects of economic shocks on food systems and the need to learn from these crises to build more resilient mechanisms. The conversation also touches on the potential for social unrest due to food price increases and the importance of considering the global ripple effects of such crises.

Keywords

💡Perfect storm

A 'perfect storm' refers to a rare combination of circumstances that leads to an extremely powerful and disastrous outcome. In the context of the video, it is used to describe the convergence of multiple crises such as the war in Ukraine, climate change, and the COVID-19 pandemic, which are exacerbating global food and fuel shortages and potentially leading to widespread hunger and economic instability.

💡Developing countries

Developing countries are nations with lower income per capita and less advanced technological infrastructure relative to developed countries. The video discusses how these countries are disproportionately affected by the war in Ukraine because they heavily rely on imports of food and fuel, which have become scarce and expensive due to the conflict.

💡Food and fuel prices

Food and fuel prices are critical indicators of economic stability and accessibility. The script highlights that these prices have surged due to the war in Ukraine, which is a major producer of both commodities. The increase in prices is causing a strain on the budgets of developing countries and individuals, potentially leading to hunger and social unrest.

💡Sanctions

Sanctions are measures imposed on countries to coerce certain changes in behavior. The video discusses how Western sanctions on Russia in response to the invasion of Ukraine have disrupted global trade, particularly affecting the export of fertilizers from Russia and Belarus, leading to a rise in global food prices.

💡Climate change

Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns. It is mentioned in the script as a contributing factor to the food crisis in developing countries, with examples such as droughts in Eastern Africa, which are exacerbating food shortages and driving up prices.

💡Food security

Food security means having consistent access to enough food for an active, healthy life. The video emphasizes the threat to food security in developing countries due to the war in Ukraine, which has disrupted the supply of staple foods like wheat and barley, leading to concerns about hunger and malnutrition.

💡Fertilizer

Fertilizer is a substance added to soil to promote plant growth. The script discusses how Russia and Belarus are significant exporters of fertilizers, and the war has disrupted these exports, leading to a spike in fertilizer prices and potentially affecting global food production.

💡Global economy

The global economy encompasses all economic activities and interactions worldwide. The video script mentions that the global economy was already fragile due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine has added further stress, causing delays in economic recovery and increasing inflationary pressures.

💡Inflation

Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, purchasing power is falling. The script connects the war in Ukraine to increased inflation, as the conflict has led to higher prices for essential commodities like food and fuel, affecting the cost of living.

💡Investment

Investment refers to the commitment of money or capital with the expectation of financial returns. The video discusses how the uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine is making investors more cautious about investing in emerging markets, which could lead to a reduction in capital available for development in these regions.

💡Debt servicing

Debt servicing is the process of paying interest and repaying principal on loans. The script highlights that many developing countries are struggling with high levels of debt servicing, which takes up a significant portion of their revenues, leaving less money available for addressing crises like food shortages and economic recovery.

Highlights

The war in Ukraine is creating a 'perfect storm of crises' for developing countries, according to the U.N.

Global food and fuel prices have risen dramatically due to the conflict.

1.7 billion people could face hunger as a result of the war's impact on food supplies.

Russia and Ukraine are major suppliers of wheat, barley, maize, and sunflower oil.

Food prices have reached record highs since the war began in February.

Western sanctions have disrupted fertilizer exports from Russia and Belarus.

The war is exacerbating a three-dimensional crisis involving food, energy, and finance.

Developing countries are struggling with challenges not of their own making.

Russia and Ukraine produce about 30% of the world's wheat and barley.

At least 36 nations get the majority of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine.

Food prices are up 34% compared to last year, the highest levels ever recorded.

Crude oil prices have risen 60% compared to last year.

Russia and Belarus exported roughly one-fifth of the world's fertilizers.

Fertilizer prices have more than doubled.

The situation is dire and becoming more so, with 30 million people facing a hunger crisis in Eastern Africa alone.

Approximately 90% of wheat in Eastern Africa is sourced from Ukraine and Russia.

Food prices in Eastern Africa have increased by over 20% in recent months.

The global economy was already fragile due to the pandemic before the war in Ukraine.

The conflict will delay global economic recovery and increase inflationary pressures.

Energy prices are directly impacted by the conflict, with a 40% increase in oil prices this year.

The planting season in Ukraine is directly in the conflict zone, which could lead to minimal exports and shortages.

Fertilizer prices are rising due to input prices of gas and energy, impacting global food production.

Investors are becoming more wary of investing in emerging markets due to the crisis.

Developing countries are struggling with debt financing related to the coronavirus pandemic.

Even if the war were to end tomorrow, it would take time for global food supply and prices to recover.

The crisis hasn't even begun, and the real crisis is still to come.

The international community needs to look at the ripple effects of crises and support developing countries.

The situation threatens to turn into social unrest due to the perfect storm of variables.

Transcripts

the war in ukraine is creating what the

u.n calls a perfect storm of crises for

developing countries

fighting has driven up global food and

fuel prices 1.7 billion people could go

hungry so what are the solutions

this is inside story

[Music]

[Music]

hello and welcome to the program i'm

muhammad zhum russia's invasion of

ukraine has upended the flow of food

fuel and money around the world the u.n

warns the conflict's cascading effects

could have an impact on nearly 1.7

billion people that's because russia and

ukraine are major food and energy

suppliers

they grow much of the wheat barley maize

and sunflower oil that developing

nations depend on

prices for these staple items have

reached record highs since february when

the war began

the conflict and western sanctions have

also disrupted fertilizer exports from

russia and belarus global oil and gas

prices are up as well as countries limit

transactions with russia

the war is supercharging a

three-dimensional crisis food energy and

finance

that is pummeling some of the world's

most vulnerable people countries and

economies

and all these comes at a time when

developing countries are already

struggling

with the slate of challenges not of

their making

russia and ukraine produce about 30

percent of the world's wheat and barley

the u.n says at least 36 nations

including some of the poorest get the

majority of their wheat from them

food prices are up 34 compared to last

year the highest levels ever recorded by

the u.n food and agriculture

organization

crude oil prices have risen 60 compared

to last year

russia and belarus also exported roughly

one-fifth of the world's fertilizers and

their prices have more than doubled

all right let's go ahead and bring in

our guests in asergi italy abdulreza

abbasian a senior food market analyst

and a former senior economist with the

u.n food and agriculture organization

in johannesburg parven nagala a

development and humanitarian specialist

and a regional director at oxfam for

horn east and central africa

in london chris wiefer a specialist in

emerging markets and chief executive

officer of macro advisory a strategic

consultancy focused on russia and

eurasia a warm welcome to you all and

thanks so much for joining us today on

inside story parvin let me start with

you today oxfam published a report this

week saying over a quarter of a billion

more people could crash into extreme

levels of poverty in 2022 because of

covet 19 rising global inequality and

the shock of food price rises

supercharged by the war in ukraine just

how much more dire could this situation

get

the situation as we see it um

really indeed is becoming more dire and

what i can reference and i really want

to appreciate the opportunity to be able

to reflect on this especially coming

from the horn eastern central africa

region in eastern africa at the moment

we have approximately

30 million people who are

facing a hunger crisis because of

various factors one of which is the

climate change crisis

that cuts across the region and in this

case we are seeing it manifested in the

form of drought in certain countries

such as ethiopia somalia uh kenya but

also you know other climate uh change

manifestations in the form of

floods in south sudan so this has a

multiplier effect for us on the

continent in terms of how it's bearing

and featuring in terms of the hunger

crisis and as we talk about the ukraine

crisis we are seeing it reflected in the

form of the food prices as a quick uh

reference what we do note in eastern

africa region is at the moment

approximately 90 percent of the wheat is

sourced from

ukraine and russia and over the last

couple of months and we know that

there's going to be more we've seen

increases in terms of food prices to

over 20 percent and that is a major

concern for us because not only are we

seeing climate change the drought you

know uh floods resulting in a hunger

crisis but also the the the prices you

know mean that there are even more

people who will not have access to the

food that they they they need the other

one you have mentioned indeed is about

conflict you know we've had a

conflict in various parts of the

continent and that becomes a compounding

factor for us not to mention how much

the ukraine crisis also plays into the

dynamics

chris the world economy was already in a

pretty tough state due to the pandemic

how much worse has the war in ukraine

made things

yeah as you say the the global economy

was pretty fragile at the start this

year starting a recovery uh from two

years to pandemic uh and then there's

absolutely no doubt that this conflict

and the consequences of this conflict uh

will add to those pressures and will

delay the recovery and uh previous

speakers already talked about the

inflationary pressures and it looks it

absolutely that those pressures will get

worse uh as we go through uh this year

and probably into into next year um so

and that would have an impact on the

global economy so if we look at

energy prices of course that are

directly impacted by by the conflict uh

the potential that there could be a

reduction in say russian oil or gas

supplies that's already led to a 40

percent increase in the oil price

this year and and looks like the

sanctions may even press that price

higher but the real impact i think of

the global economy will be in the area

of food so

again we've already mentioned wheat that

price of wheat is up 45 since beginning

this year uh this is now planting season

uh in russia ukraine uh there's no

reason to assume any disruption in

russia planting because it's well away

from the conflict zone but the ukraine

uh planting area is directly in the

conflict zone so if that planting season

does not go ahead and right now it looks

like it is not then you're we're likely

to have uh minimal exports from ukraine

in terms of wheat and other critical

grains at the end of this year and

therefore you're likely to have

shortages uh particularly of wheat

therefore leading to flour um as well as

some other other

products later this year and then the

other area of course in terms of global

food is of course

russia ukraine belarus this area is a

big supplier of fertilizers of potash

which is used around the world in in

asia in india and africa uh they source

a lot of population fertilizer from

russia belarus ukraine and the prices of

those product because of the input

prices of gas and energy will also rise

so no matter how you look at it we've

had a bad start of the year in terms of

food inflation it very much looks like

it's going to get worse uh over the rest

of this year and coming into 2023.

abdul reza um you heard there parvin and

chris both speak about the fact that

even before the war global food prices

were already spiking um there were

several factors that caused that uh some

of them include the coronavirus pandemic

as well as climate change there's other

factors as well how much has the war in

ukraine exacerbated all of this

well it's very difficult to put a sort

of a tag or a price tag or something

beyond that but uh obviously it has

raised the premium risk

quite substantially

markets were tight already and the there

was no expectation that in the current

kind of a climate that we were before

that is prices rising almost every month

for the past 12 months for the previous

12 months before the war started that we

would get ourselves into this sort of a

problem and not just anywhere but where

a lot of a lot of the world grain is uh

is sourced uh if you take for example

wfp alone it takes a lot of its grain

from ukraine and now it has to look to

the resources or pay high prices so

basically what we have what we have

today is that um

uh there is a there is

it added to the uncertainty about the

supply

both short term and near term and also

it um it brought back again a lot of a

lot of issues with geopolitics um about

the the shipment uh not to mention the

infrastructure damage uh especially uh

or primarily in ukraine

which makes it almost impossible to

predict when and how much of the ukraine

grain is going to make it to the world

market so all of that means that uh for

if you are an importing country uh you

you would need to source uh somewhere

else you need to go for plan b

and that means you know you have to rely

on uh good weather this year if the

harvests

will start soon uh hopefully at least

for wheat uh right now current

indications are not so bad the rest of

the world

but you know we are in the

climate change

situation year after year so nothing can

be certain before it's actually been

harvested

can i also follow up with you about

something that chris mentioned he was

talking about the issue when it comes to

fertilizer now i mean it's not just

wheat we have to talk about fertilizer

prices that are also spiking what kind

of overall impact is that going to have

well huge uh in fact the the fertilizer

issue uh

he already made headlines uh going back

to last june so it's not a new problem

now you have an addition uh additional

issue with fertilizer which is that

russia is the big exporter of it so

obviously we have to see how how trade

and fertilizer would be affected

and then is the issue of the gas which

you need to import to produce the

fertilizer and that again is a huge

issue now um it definitely adds to the

cost now if you are a very efficient

producer and you could somehow also

benefit from these high prices

you will make sure that your margins are

still very healthy you would pay for

those high prices assuming even if you

find it because as i said there is also

issue of this supply so it's just a one

huge new added uncertainty on top of all

the other things that we had to worry

about uh parven i saw you nodding along

to what abdelreza was saying so i'm

going to let you jump in because i want

to get your take on this as well i mean

the more that fertilizer prices rise the

harder it's going to be to farm right

yes it's true and i think there's two

points that i would highlight with

regards to that one is the issue of

price when we look at uh the african

farmers you know more often than not for

instance in the eastern africa region

we're talking about smallholder farmers

many of whom are women now um if that's

the case when you're talking about price

who is going to be most impacted and

then it also becomes my second point

what are the mechanisms in terms of

being able to support this smallholder

farmers to be able to both sustain

themselves but also look at what is

their future so it has that multiplier

effect uh like we call it on one hand in

terms of immediate needs but also means

on the long term if they don't have

access to the to the fertilizer it has

an impact on uh their production and

subsequently impacts their livelihood so

the price element is just one part of it

but also looking at the type of

communities that you're talking about

many of whom are small-scale farmers

that don't have uh really good coping

mechanisms and as such we would have to

look at what are the mechanisms that

might need to be put in place to support

them both on the long term but also on

accessing

fertilizer chris um what kind of effect

is all of this having on investors are

they now more wary

about the possibility of investing in

emerging markets is that one of the

effects here

yeah it is uh i mean we talked about the

the impact of people people's lives and

and living in emerging markets and the

rising cost of food but you know the

development of any emerging market

requires capital it requires investment

and essentially requires the movement of

capital from developed economies

into developing economies and you know

we saw that slowing down because of

coronavirus uh investors in in the big

developed economies start to become more

risk averse which means that they would

put their money somewhere safe you know

largely in dollar based assets in

developed economies uh and not taking

risks in developing uh economies and now

this uh situation uh will exacerbate

that i think the the global concern you

talked about and more far

we really have no idea in terms of what

happens next uh critically for example

you asked earlier about the impact of

global economy we talked about food but

you know the the critical uh supply

is is gas uh

much of europe is is is critically

dependent on russian gas and no matter

about what the political sentiment is

the reality is that europe simply cannot

get that gas from anywhere else and it

certainly would not even have a chance

of getting that gas from anywhere else

uh for about five or six years minimum

and with huge investments so

that's if that gas were to be disrupted

you would have industrial uh disruption

in europe you would have a recession in

some european countries and therefore

you'd have a global recession and the

reason i mentioned that is because it's

a huge uncertainty that investors are

aware of and therefore it certainly does

lead to a reluctance by big investment

funds to start taking risks so long as

there is this uncertainty over the

global economy uh they tend to be more

conservative about where they put their

money and unfortunately that means it

usually leads to a reduction in the

amount of money that's available for

developing economies and that makes

their situation even worse so i'm afraid

it is something of a perfect storm right

that we're now looking at which started

with coronavirus and has been

exacerbated with the uncertainty that's

now hanging over the ukraine russia

conflict and uh yeah so yeah the

situation does not look good if i could

just follow up with you as well um when

it comes to the developing economies

these developing countries that are

already struggling with debt financing

related to the coronavirus pandemic i

mean the economic outlook for these

countries

really couldn't be looking much worse

right now could they

no uh it looks pretty bad uh there's

unfortunately if you're an investment

strategist looking at a case for

investing in in most developing

economies it's very hard to see

as an asset class it simply isn't there

right now and then one other factor of

course is we're now talking about debt

default possibility from russia uh for

technical reasons but it doesn't matter

once you start getting a technic a debt

default and we had one last week from

sri lanka that also adds to

uh the more conservative stance by by

investors and they become a lot more

wary of uh of particularly of developing

economy risk uh uh and and therefore

adds to reluctance to to to to invest so

yeah i mean unfortunately it's very

difficult to look at the developing

economy as a class right now and say

this is a good time to invest everything

sensible tells you not to uh and to wait

and unfortunately that waiting is going

to make the situation uh significantly

worse for a lot of developing economies

that need capital at this stage and they

won't get it

i guess one of the well something else

that's really concerning people is even

if the war were to end tomorrow

and there's no telling how much longer

this war will go on but even if it were

to come to a sudden end it would still

take quite a long time for things to get

back to

pre-pandemic levels when it comes to

global food supply and prices right

frankly i think we will never go back to

the pre-pandemic level um

or let me correct me

in terms of overall supply you may but

the supplies probably the supply routes

will will be very different

i think we need to give market time to

to channel to find new new routes i

would say because uh obviously this is

not just a war between russia and

ukraine it's it's a unfortunately

something like a drawing line uh quite a

quite an extensive uh division of our

planet i guess so we're going to get

we're going to get a little bit of what

we used to have uh during the cold war

in a sense so uh are we going to have

different type of countries one side or

another friends and foes and so forth so

i think that uh

eventually trade will sort it all out

but as uh um the other colleague was

saying in terms of we needed the time

for for

uh you know the changes in europe

to adjust to the new new new world with

gas not coming from russia or what else

uh also for food flows we're going to

wait a couple of years i think before we

settle down with this new world order

and this is most unfortunate especially

for the poorest uh countries and the

developing countries which are

struggling um frankly i i don't know

what sort of solution uh could be

presented there uh but my wish is that

the the richer world would just uh you

know try to not just think about itself

as it did in the case of kobe which is

very shameful but that when it comes to

food uh they would really start coming

up with solid proposals that would at

least cushion the poorer countries for

for the very bumpy years that is going

to definitely be ahead of us to me the

crisis that you're talking about today

hasn't even begun so the real crisis is

still has to come

and

i mean

do you have any idea on what it would

take to solve any of these crises like

what could be done

well had i or would anybody at this

point i think this is this more than

anything else requires a collective

measure by the by all the countries by

all the leaders including

russia

i i think that i've been in this

business for 30 years and i have not

seen a situation like this

confronting at least the food sector

where there are also other crisis going

on at the same time so uh we do need

some exceptional um i guess uh measures

in this in this in this case and i think

that uh

when it comes to food

you would expect

especially countries like china like

russia to come along with the rest of

the world and at least for developing

countries make no excuses that there

will be no interruption in their

supplies and i think that uh one has to

again not forget the disaster that is

happening in humanitarian disasters

happening in ukraine that problem has to

be resolved quickly and ukrainians have

to be looked after first and by most

they're not just any people

they're hard-working people and

basically we live on believe on their

hard work the whole world is is it

depends on them so this is not just a

one little war somewhere going on this

is really likelihood of the planet parva

and i saw you reacting to some of what

abdulraza was saying did you want to

jump in

yeah um i think one of the things i just

want to recognize and maybe you know

working with oxfam and being involved in

very many crises across the the world

what we've been

uh talking about the fact that it's not

an either or in terms of the attention

of the crisis in the world you know that

it is actually about end you know we uh

do recognize at the moment the ukraine

crisis has a significant impact across

the globe but we do also have other

crises on the on the on the continent

we're talking about yemen we have

afghanistan we've got south sudan you

know what i'm talking about in the

region in the eastern africa region uh

in terms of the hunger crisis western

africa you know we've got um

as a health food crisis so in a sense

it's about also uh the international

community looking at the issues on the

globe in terms of how they do have a

ripple effect if there's anything i

think all of us learned from the covered

uh 19 pandemic it was that we are

interconnected so what does that mean

really for us on one hand and maybe just

picking up on a point that was being

talked about around date you know on the

african continent in the eastern africa

region at the moment in terms of

servicing debt because many of our

countries you know had to look for

resources to to address you know the to

respond to the corporate pandemic but

also to look at what the

recovery efforts could look like in

terms of

percentages over 35 percent of the tax

revenues are going towards debt

servicing we've had a drop even before

the ukraine crisis we had a drop of gdp

by over 2.7 percent so all of that you

know when you're talking about

multiplier effects is really feeding

into more and more uh crisis and some of

which get reflected in the form of

in the form of conflict you know so my

point around that actually is that we

need to be able to look at it in a

systems uh systems way right what does

it mean what are the lessons we're

learning for example on food production

the food supply chain yes there's um

been a mechanism where we have

had a working you know a food supply uh

system but clearly there's a certain

inconsistency in it which mean if we

have a trigger or a shock on one part as

a seemingly small part it has a

you know humongous effect so it's really

challenging us also to look again at our

mechanisms and that's why i made the

emphasis with on the beat around

what are we doing especially on

sustainable food systems how we're

working especially with small-scale

smallholder farmers that you know could

close a loop in immediate regional uh

markets because we do recognize that

the way we've got right now in terms of

the food system while it can very well

sustain itself small economic shocks big

economic shocks have a ripple effect

parvan i want to pick up on something

you just mentioned in your answer you

were talking about multiplying effects

and you also mentioned the word conflict

and that brings me to my next question

we just have about a minute and a half

left but i'm curious to get your

perspective how concerned are you that

that this this perfect storm of

variables that the world is dealing with

now which includes climate change covet

19 pandemic and now the war in ukraine

driving up all these prices um how

concerned are you that this all

threatens to turn into social unrest

well in terms of social unrest you know

there is that likelihood you know we do

know of countries uh many of the what

was called the al arab spring a couple

of years was based on

indications such as the prices of food

you know if you remember what was

happening in tunisia what was happening

in in sudan those were the triggers for

many of our communities and you know we

always say

how can i put food how can i put bread

on my table those form triggers for many

of the conflicts that that we have and

so in that sense even now people

questioning what is the increase in

terms of

of prices for me to be able to feed my

family what does that mean in terms of

looking at options what are the options

if there are no options then people take

you know what we call negative

coping mechanisms and you know while on

one hand you know you might call it

conflict it is reflected in the form of

conflict but there are other things

people who are missing meals uh we've

got examples of families opting to marry

off their young daughters because they

want to have less marks to feed get some

income so there are negative coping

mechanisms that people then adopt you

know which include conflict

unfortunately and with resources whether

it is food whether it is water you know

uh gas being the sort of uh centers of

the conflict all right well we have run

out of time so we're going to have to

leave the conversation there thank you

so much to all of our guests abdulreza

abbasian parvin nagala and chris weifer

and thank you two for watching you can

see the program again anytime by

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muhammad jim jim the whole team here in

doha bye for now

you