Tesla Is Already Losing the Robotaxi Wars

Summary

The video discusses the future of autonomous vehicle robo-taxis, comparing Tesla’s ambitious yet untested plans with the current market leaders, Cruise (owned by GM) and Waymo (owned by Alphabet). These companies already have operational robo-taxis in several U.S. cities and are expanding rapidly, while Tesla lags behind with no fully autonomous vehicles in testing. The video emphasizes that Cruise and Waymo are safer, proven, and more practical investment options compared to Tesla, which faces regulatory challenges and delayed progress in the robo-taxi industry.

Takeaways

• 🚕 Tesla is expected to announce an autonomous Robo taxi product on October 10th, but competitors are already ahead in the market.
• 🤖 Uber has partnerships with Cruise (a GM subsidiary) and Waymo (owned by Alphabet), both of which have operational autonomous vehicles today.
• 🌍 Waymo has the most autonomous miles driven and is operational in cities like Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Austin.
• 🛣️ Waymo's autonomous service covers a large area in Phoenix, including 315 square miles of the metro area, and is expanding in other major cities.
• 🚗 Cruise, owned by General Motors, is also operational with modified Chevy Bolt vehicles and is expanding to more cities like Phoenix, Dallas, and Houston.
• 🛠️ Tesla’s autonomous driving system (FSD) is only at Level 2, while competitors are deploying higher-level systems that don’t require drivers.
• 🚨 Cruise faced setbacks in San Francisco due to an incident in 2023, but it’s relaunching and testing safety measures in key cities.
• 📱 Both Waymo and Cruise have partnerships with Uber, allowing customers to book rides through the Uber app in cities where they operate.
• ⏳ Tesla has not begun testing fully autonomous driving systems in key states like California and Texas, which means they are years behind competitors.
• 💡 Investors might find better opportunities in General Motors (Cruise) and Alphabet (Waymo) compared to Tesla, as those companies are further along in the Robo taxi business.

Q & A

What is Tesla expected to announce on October 10th?

Tesla is expected to announce a Robo-taxi product, which is an autonomous vehicle concept, on October 10th.

How are competitors like Cruise and Waymo ahead of Tesla in the Robo-taxi market?

Cruise and Waymo are already deploying fully autonomous vehicles (Robo-taxis) in multiple cities in the U.S., while Tesla's autonomous driving technology is still in development and hasn't been tested in public markets at the same level.

What level of autonomous driving is Tesla currently working on?

Tesla is attempting to move from a Level 2 autonomous driving system (which requires driver supervision) to a Level 5 system, which would be fully autonomous and capable of driving anywhere without human intervention.

Which companies are currently partnering with Uber for Robo-taxi services?

Uber is partnering with both Cruise (owned by General Motors) and Waymo (owned by Alphabet) to provide autonomous vehicle services on their platform.

What cities are Waymo’s Robo-taxis currently operational in?

Waymo's Robo-taxis are operational in Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Austin.

Why is Cruise considered a strong competitor in the Robo-taxi space?

Cruise is owned by General Motors and is actively deploying autonomous vehicles in multiple cities. They have partnered with Uber, which expands their potential customer base significantly.

What challenges is Tesla facing in its Robo-taxi development?

Tesla is not currently testing fully autonomous vehicles in key states like California and Texas, which are critical for deploying its Robo-taxi network. Tesla also faces regulatory hurdles and hasn't yet proven its 'vision-only' autonomous driving model.

What incident caused Cruise to temporarily pull its vehicles off the road?

In October 2023, an incident in San Francisco led Cruise to temporarily halt its autonomous vehicle operations to reassess safety protocols and ensure compliance with regulations.

What is the regulatory status of Tesla's autonomous vehicle testing?

Tesla is not testing fully autonomous vehicles (Level 3, 4, or 5) in key U.S. states like California or Texas, where other companies like Waymo and Cruise are actively testing and deploying their Robo-taxis.

Why might Waymo and Cruise be better investments than Tesla in the autonomous vehicle space?

Waymo and Cruise are already operational, collecting data, and scaling their autonomous vehicle networks in major U.S. cities. Tesla, meanwhile, is years away from deploying a fully autonomous Robo-taxi service, making Waymo and Cruise less risky and more proven options.

Outlines

00:00

🚗 Tesla Faces Robo-Taxi Competition

Tesla is expected to announce a Robo-taxi product soon, but competitors like Cruz (owned by General Motors) and Whmo (owned by Alphabet) are already ahead, deploying autonomous vehicles today. These companies are scaling their Robo-taxi businesses across multiple U.S. cities, including Phoenix, Los Angeles, and Austin. While Tesla aims to jump from a level two to level five autonomous system, they are not actively testing these systems in areas where they plan to operate. The speaker, Travis, explains why Cruz and Whmo are more reliable bets in the autonomous vehicle space due to their proven records and real-world deployments.

05:01

🚖 Whmo and Cruz's Autonomous Operations

Whmo, owned by Alphabet, has the most autonomous miles driven and is operational in Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Austin. Their Robo-taxi service covers large areas such as 315 square miles in Phoenix. They offer a real product that customers can access through their app or Uber. Cruz, owned by General Motors, uses modified Chevy Bolts for their Robo-taxi service. They are operational in cities like Phoenix, Dallas, and Houston but faced setbacks in 2023. After reorganizing, they are back on the road and expanding through a partnership with Uber, allowing customers to book Cruz vehicles via the Uber app.

Keywords

💡Robo taxi

A Robo taxi refers to an autonomous vehicle that operates as a taxi without the need for a human driver. In the video, it is discussed in the context of companies like Tesla, Cruise, and Waymo (referred to as 'whmo'), which are competing to deploy fully autonomous Robo taxis. The video argues that while Tesla is expected to announce such a product, competitors like Waymo and Cruise already have functioning Robo taxis on the road in several U.S. cities.

💡Autonomous vehicle

An autonomous vehicle is a self-driving car that operates without human intervention, relying on sensors, cameras, and AI to navigate. In the video, the speaker highlights that companies like Waymo and Cruise are actively deploying autonomous vehicles, whereas Tesla has yet to test its fully autonomous systems in key markets. Autonomous vehicles are the core technology enabling the Robo taxi business model.

💡Level 5 autonomous system

Level 5 refers to full automation, where a vehicle can drive anywhere under any conditions without human input. Tesla's goal is to reach this level, but the video notes that Tesla is currently only at Level 2, which still requires driver supervision. The video contrasts this with Waymo and Cruise, which are further along in deploying higher-level autonomous vehicles, potentially putting Tesla at a competitive disadvantage.

💡Waymo

Waymo (referred to as 'whmo' in the video) is an autonomous driving technology company owned by Alphabet (Google's parent company). Waymo is leading the Robo taxi market, with operational autonomous taxis in cities like Phoenix, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. The video emphasizes Waymo’s extensive testing and the fact that it has the most autonomous miles driven, positioning it as a frontrunner over Tesla in this industry.

💡Cruise

Cruise is a subsidiary of General Motors that is also involved in the deployment of autonomous vehicles. The video highlights Cruise’s operational Robo taxis in cities such as Phoenix, Dallas, and Houston. The company faced a setback in 2023 due to a safety incident in San Francisco but is now regaining momentum, especially through its partnership with Uber to scale its autonomous taxi business.

💡Tesla

Tesla is mentioned as a major player in the autonomous vehicle market, although the video critiques Tesla’s slow progress compared to Waymo and Cruise. Tesla aims to build a Level 5 autonomous system but is still at Level 2, and its vehicles are not being tested in key markets like California or Texas. The video questions Tesla's ability to catch up with competitors already operating Robo taxis.

💡Uber

Uber is a ride-hailing company that has partnered with both Waymo and Cruise to integrate autonomous vehicles into its platform. The video discusses how Uber benefits from these partnerships, as it can offer autonomous ride-hailing services without developing its own autonomous technology. This partnership is described as a 'win-win,' helping Uber compete in the evolving transportation market.

💡FSD (Full Self-Driving)

Full Self-Driving (FSD) is Tesla’s advanced driver-assistance system, which is currently only at a Level 2 stage, meaning drivers must still supervise and be ready to take control. The video points out that Tesla has rebranded its FSD system as 'supervised FSD' in its documentation, indicating it is not yet fully autonomous. This rebranding suggests that Tesla is far from delivering a true Robo taxi solution.

💡Partnership

Partnership refers to the collaborations between companies to achieve business goals. In the video, partnerships are crucial in the autonomous vehicle industry. Uber's partnerships with Waymo and Cruise are examples of how companies are leveraging each other’s strengths. These partnerships allow Uber to introduce autonomous ride-hailing services, while Waymo and Cruise benefit from Uber's large customer base.

💡Safety

Safety is a central concern in the deployment of autonomous vehicles. The video notes that Cruise faced safety issues in 2023, leading to a temporary suspension of its operations in San Francisco. Tesla’s autonomous systems are also critiqued for not being fully tested in states like California or Texas, raising questions about the readiness of its technology. Companies must prioritize safety to gain regulatory approval and customer trust in the Robo taxi market.

Highlights

Tesla is expected to announce an autonomous Robo taxi product on October 10th, but competitors are already ahead in the market.

Uber has partnerships with autonomous vehicle companies like Cruise (owned by General Motors) and Waymo (owned by Alphabet).

Waymo has the most autonomous miles on the road and is currently operational in cities like Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Austin.

Cruise is deploying modified Chevy Bolts as Robo taxis and is operational in cities like Phoenix, Dallas, and Houston.

Waymo's Phoenix network covers 315 square miles, including the airport and major areas like Scottsdale and Chandler.

Both Cruise and Waymo are available through Uber, enhancing Uber's autonomous ride-sharing options.

Tesla is still in the early stages, working on a Level 2 vision-only system and is not yet testing fully autonomous vehicles on U.S. roads.

Waymo plans to release a custom Robo taxi vehicle, expected next year, that could further increase its market dominance.

Cruise's plans for a custom Robo taxi without a steering wheel are delayed due to regulatory issues, and it will continue using modified Chevy Bolts.

Cruise faced a setback in San Francisco in October 2023 but has resumed operations with improved safety measures and partnerships with first responders.

Tesla has not yet received permits for fully autonomous vehicle testing in key states like California and Texas.

Waymo and Cruise are currently the only companies with deployment permits for fully driverless operations in various U.S. cities.

Tesla's Full-Self Driving (FSD) system has been rebranded as 'Supervised FSD,' indicating the need for driver supervision, unlike the fully autonomous systems from competitors.

Investors are advised to consider General Motors (Cruise) and Alphabet (Waymo) as better options for autonomous vehicle investments over Tesla.

Both Cruise and Waymo are expected to have thousands of Robo taxis operational before Tesla is able to fully enter the market with autonomous vehicles.

Transcripts

Tesla is expected to announce some sort

of autonomous vehicle Robo taxi product

on the 10th of October but the reality

is the market is already moving forward

without Tesla Uber already has

Partnerships with Cruz a subsidiary of

General Motors and whmo a company that

is owned by alphabet both of these

companies are deploying autonomous

vehicles today or Robo taxies so no

driver and they're scaling these

business businesses across a number of

cities across the United States now of

course the vision for Tesla is very

different they are attempting to go from

a level two autonomous driving system

that is Vision only to basically a level

five autonomous system that can take you

essentially anywhere in the country or

around the world what Tesla is not doing

is testing any of those systems in the

states where they would be theoretically

operating so I want to go through what

we know today and why I think Cruz and

weo are actually the better bets in the

robo taxi business than Tesla because

they're actually on the road we have

data behind them and we're not talking

about a theoretical product we're

talking about something that's proven

and safe today my name's Travis ham

thanks for watching asymmetric investing

Please Subscribe here on YouTube for all

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10 stocks to buy right now so let's get

to who these two competitors are the

first that I want to highlight is wh

whmo is owned by alphabet they have the

most autonomous miles on the road of any

company today and they are currently

launching wh 1 this is their Robo taxi

product they're actually going to make a

custom vehicle that Zer is going to make

that should be out potentially next year

but they are operational in Phoenix San

Francisco Los Angeles and Austin if you

just look at their map in the Phoenix

area you can see that this covers a

tremendous amount of space 315 square

miles in Metro Phoenix so basically

everywhere you want to go from the

airport all the way up through Scottdale

and down to Chandler in Los Angeles

there's obviously a lot more space to

expand to but they're going all the way

from Santa Monica up to West Hollywood

so a huge amount of area that weo is

operating and this is something that you

can see on the road today there are

hundreds of vehicles in operation so

this is a real Robo taxi that you can

call through the weo app or you can get

a wh Mo through Uber as well I'll cover

that in just a second the other company

deploying Robo taxis today is crw this

is a Chevy bolt so a modified Chevy bolt

what Cru is going to be doing they are

owned by General Motors but what they're

going to be doing is next year they're

going to be launching a Chevy bolt that

will be custom made for cruise they

originally wanted to do this kind of

Mini Bus design that had doors that

opened a little bit like a bus you could

fit four people in there would be very

custom made for specifically a robo taxi

but that's not technically legal to

drive on the road without a steering

wheel right now so what they're going to

do is they're going to leverage their

new bolt bring a little bit more scale

to that business and modify that so it

will look a little bit better

theoretically but Cruz is now doing what

they call manual driving and supervised

driving in Phoenix Dallas and Houston

I'll go over where I think they have

some operations in Austin as well but

there are at least those three cities

where they are bringing their vehicles

back to the road if you're familiar with

Cru there was an incident in San

Francisco area in October 2023 that

actually pulled the company's vehicles

from the road their CEO left they kind

of reconfigured everything that they're

doing and they're kind of starting from

scratch from a robo taxi deployment

perspective so making sure that all

their safety measures are in order

they're working with First Responders

all that kind of background stuff that

isn't sexy but you have to do if you're

going to build a big Robo taxi business

so Cruz has been doing that over the

last almost a year now and they are now

back on the road the big item for Cru

recently was they announced a partner

ship with Uber where you're going to be

able to call for a vehicle in Uber and

then get a cruise in the cities where

they're available this is basically the

exact same partnership that weo has so

for cruise it builds out your ride

sharing Network or the demand side of

what you're building you could go

through the cruise app just like you

could go through the whmo app but Uber

has an established customer base so I

think that's a great way to get into the

market and for Uber it brings autonomous

vehicles to their platform with ever

without ever having to develop or build

build those autonomous vehicles

themselves so probably a win-win for

both of these companies but when I say

Cruz and wh are way ahead of Tesla in

Robo taxis what I mean is that Tesla is

not even testing these products in the

market this is from the state of

California they're autonomous vehicle

testing permit holders you can see that

there are a ton of companies that have a

permit to test autonomous vehicles this

is with a safety driver so Apple has one

of these Cruz is here Mercedes-Benz

mobile eye Tesla is on this list but

then if you go down here to permit

holders for driverless testing the

number of permits Falls dramatically weo

is here and they have a ton of cities

where they they're able to operate and

Cruz actually left the California area

so it doesn't appear that they're going

to be launching in California at least

in the near future so we'll see what

happens over the next few months and

then if you go to deployment without a

driver there are only three companies on

this list Mercedes-Benz that may

surprise you but they actually have a

level three autonomous driving system

there is nuro nuro this is a relatively

small company and then wh wh can operate

not just in all of these cities they

actually have some areas where they are

able to operate on the highway that I

don't believe is available to customers

yet but employees are using it so that

is the next step is not just to be able

to go on public roads but also on

highways at speeds of 60 70 M an hour so

that that's a huge step forward for wh

the other big state to watch from an

autonomous driving perspective is Texas

this is where Tesla is headquartered so

you would think if Tesla is going to be

testing anything they're going to be

doing that in Texas but let's look at

some of the operators and what I want to

look at here is these little car symbols

so this is up in the Dallas area you can

see that Cruz is operating in Dallas

here's another one here for Cruz if you

go down to Austin you you have whmo

Volkswagen actually has some testing

going on that would be likely through

mobile ey zuk which is owned by Amazon

AV ride and then Cru again if you go

down to Houston this is another one of

those areas that Cruz has said that

they're going to be expanding who do you

not see on this list you don't see Tesla

on this list because they are not

testing any level three level four or

level five autonomous driving in the

states of California and Texas thanks to

our friends at the mle fool for

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the top 10 stocks to buy right now so

what we know today is that Uber Cru and

wh are all working together in one form

or another to launch autonomous vehicles

to launch Robo taxis into the market to

actually have real people riding in

those Robo taxis the one company that

does not have any of those products is

Tesla and even from a regulatory

perspective testing autonomous driving

features Tesla is not on this list that

means that it's likely going to be 2 3 4

years before Tesla will be allowed to

drive fully autonomously on the road

without some sort of a safety driver

there is nowhere in the US today that

you're able to get a permit to have a

completely autonomous vehicle without

doing any sort of testing so we need to

go through that phase completely before

Tesla would ever have some sort of

robotaxi on the road and we don't know

exactly what the business model for T

Tesla is going to be even if they figure

out autonomous driving which they

haven't done with the current versions

of FSD you may have noticed that they

have now replaced FSD with supervised

FSD with FSD supervised in all of their

documentation that means that they're

really saying so after a number of

lawsuits they are explicitly saying that

this is a pro product that has to be

supervised they have not gotten to the

point where you're able to go completely

hands-free now musk has said in the past

that they're going to at least build

some sort of Fleet themselves to start

this Robo taxi business that may not be

for a couple of years by that time will

likely have thousands maybe even tens of

thousands of wio and cruise vehicles on

the road building this autonomous

vehicle Network this Robo taxi Network

they will be potentially years ahead of

Tesla and that's if Tesla ever gets to

the road with a vision only Robo taxi I

am skeptical that they were will ever be

able to do that I'm certainly willing to

be proven wrong but I haven't seen any

data to show that they will be able to

drive Tesla vehicles with only only

Vision Without a driver and do that

safely so I think if you're interested

in autonomous driving two companies to

watch is actually General Motors trading

about five times earnings you basically

get Cru for free and wh so alphabet so

you get the search engine all of that

and you get the upside from whmo don't

think you're paying a lot for that

either I think those are much better

risk reward benefits from an investor

perspective than Tesla is today but let

me know what you think in the comment

section below don't forget to subscribe

to asymmetric investing thanks for

watching everybody see you next time