CRYPTO ALERT: THIS IS UNPRECEDENTED

Summary

In this market update, the speaker anticipates significant Bitcoin price movements in the next 12 months, aligning with historical Bitcoin cycle patterns. Emphasizing the importance of consistency and fundamentals over short-term price fluctuations, the discussion highlights the inevitability of stimulus and its impact on inflation and asset prices. The speaker suggests that Bitcoin offers a hedge against currency debasement and is poised for substantial returns, urging investors to consider its potential amidst ongoing economic stimulus and deficits.

Takeaways

• 📈 The next 12 months could see significant bull market moves for Bitcoin, aligning with historical patterns in the Bitcoin cycle.
• 🔍 Consistency in investment approach is crucial, as Bitcoin often experiences periods of stagnation or sideways movement, known as 'chop' or 'solid dates'.
• 📊 Over the long term, focusing on fundamental analysis rather than short-term price fluctuations is recommended for Bitcoin investments.
• 🏛️ The outcome of the election and subsequent policy changes could positively impact Bitcoin, regardless of who wins, due to anticipated stimulus measures.
• 📉 The Federal Reserve's rate cutting cycle is expected and largely priced into the market, making it an untradeable event.
• 💵 Persistent inflation targeting by the Fed at around 2% is driven by their control over inflation metrics and the need to manage the debt-based system.
• 🚀 Bitcoin offers an alternative asset class for those unable to take on debt, providing a hedge against currency debasement.
• 🌐 Global M2 money supply is increasing, which can influence Bitcoin's value as it makes other assets, including Bitcoin, appear more expensive in fiat terms.
• 📊 The current U.S. GDP growth is heavily reliant on government stimulus, indicating an ongoing recession that is being masked by deficit spending.
• 🔮 The video suggests that Bitcoin is a strategic asset in the current economic climate, with potential for significant returns and as a hedge against traditional financial instability.

Q & A

What is the main theme of the video regarding Bitcoin's market outlook?

The main theme of the video is that the next 12 months may bring significant market movements for Bitcoin, and the speaker emphasizes the importance of consistency and focusing on fundamental analysis over short-term price action.

What does the speaker suggest about Bitcoin's price action for the majority of the time?

The speaker suggests that for the majority of the time, Bitcoin doesn't experience significant price movements but rather moves sideways or consolidates, which is referred to as 'chop' or 'solid dates' by Checkmate.

What is the speaker's view on the impact of the upcoming U.S. election on Bitcoin's price?

The speaker believes that the outcome of the U.S. election will not significantly affect Bitcoin's price because regardless of who wins, more stimulus is expected, which is positive for BTC.

What does the speaker think about the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy in the context of the Bitcoin market?

The speaker considers the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts to be irrelevant and already priced into the market. They expect rates to be lowered to around 2.5% to control inflation, which is seen as a continuation of the current economic policy rather than a new development.

How does the speaker link the concept of 'deficit spending' to the Bitcoin market?

The speaker links deficit spending to the Bitcoin market by arguing that continuous stimulus and deficit spending are necessary to maintain positive GDP and inflation, which in turn leads to currency debasement and higher asset prices, including Bitcoin.

What is the speaker's opinion on the current economic state and the role of stimulus?

The speaker opines that the current economic state is already in a recession, propped up by stimulus. They argue that without the ongoing stimulus, the GDP would be negative, and the system would collapse.

What is the speaker's stance on the potential for a future recession?

The speaker believes that calling for a future recession is unnecessary because the economy is already in one, supported by continuous stimulus. They suggest that the focus should be on asset acquisition, such as Bitcoin, to benefit from the ongoing economic policies.

What does the speaker suggest about the role of Bitcoin in the current economic climate?

The speaker suggests that Bitcoin is a hedge against the current economic climate, allowing those who cannot take on debt to gain a real asset and providing an opportunity for those who can take on debt to leverage it to acquire BTC.

What is the speaker's outlook for Bitcoin's price in the next few years based on the script?

The speaker's outlook for Bitcoin's price is positive, suggesting that the market is set for another year or so of positive price action, potentially leading to a significant increase in value before the next bear market cycle.

What advice does the speaker give to those interested in trading or investing in Bitcoin?

The speaker advises those interested in Bitcoin to focus on the long-term fundamentals, consider the ongoing stimulus and deficit spending, and to view Bitcoin as a strategic asset in the current economic environment.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Bitcoin Market Predictions and Consistency

The speaker begins by discussing the potential for significant Bitcoin market movements in the next 12 months, which aligns with the typical Bitcoin cycle's pattern of large bull markets. They emphasize the importance of consistency in trading or investing, highlighting that Bitcoin often experiences periods of inactivity or sideways movement. The speaker suggests focusing on fundamental analysis over short-term price fluctuations, especially for long-term investors or traders. They also touch on the current market situation, describing it as a prolonged period of consolidation with no significant breakouts, and hint at the potential for policy changes post-election to drive market movement. The speaker is optimistic about Bitcoin's prospects regardless of the election outcome due to anticipated stimulus measures.

05:02

💵 Understanding the Role of Stimulus in the Economy

In the second paragraph, the speaker delves into the role of stimulus in the economy, explaining how it is necessary to maintain positive GDP and inflation rates. They discuss the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle, suggesting that it is a predictable and irrelevant factor in the market since it is already priced in. The speaker argues that the real driver of market movement is the unsustainable level of debt and the need for continuous stimulus to maintain the currency's value and ensure debt repayment over time. They also mention the potential for Bitcoin to serve as a hedge against inflation and the importance of investing in assets that can outpace the devaluation of currency.

10:03

🌐 Global Economic Trends and Bitcoin's Place

The final paragraph addresses global economic trends, with a focus on the continuous need for stimulus to prevent economic collapse. The speaker points out that the current state of the economy is reliant on deficit spending, and any reduction in stimulus would lead to a significant downturn. They argue that Bitcoin offers an opportunity to leverage the current economic system by providing a hedge against currency devaluation. The speaker also discusses the regular cycles of Bitcoin's price, suggesting that the market is due for another period of positive price action. They conclude with a mention of technical indicators that suggest a potential upcoming bullish phase for Bitcoin, and they reiterate the importance of Bitcoin as a strategic asset in the current economic climate.

Keywords

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency, without a central bank or single administrator, that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer Bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. In the video, Bitcoin is discussed as a potential asset to gain from the current economic climate, with the speaker suggesting that it is a 'sweet spot trade' and could become one of the world's biggest assets.

💡Bull Market

A bull market is a financial market in which prices are rising or are expected to rise, typically characterized by optimism and investor confidence. The video suggests that the next 12 months could see significant bull market moves in the Bitcoin cycle, indicating a period of potential growth and increased value for Bitcoin.

💡Deficit Spending

Deficit spending refers to a government's fiscal policy where its expenditures exceed its revenues, resulting in a budget deficit. The video discusses how the U.S. government's deficit spending is a key factor in maintaining GDP growth and inflation, and how it's necessary for the economy, with the speaker arguing that without it, the economy would be in a recession.

💡Stimulus

In economics, stimulus refers to government actions intended to boost economic activity, such as increasing government spending or cutting taxes. The video highlights that stimulus is being used to maintain positive GDP and inflation, and that more stimulus is expected regardless of political outcomes, which is seen as positive for Bitcoin.

💡Inflation

Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, the purchasing power of currency is falling. The video discusses how the Federal Reserve aims to control inflation around 2% and how stimulus measures are designed to achieve this level of inflation, which is a key part of the economic narrative.

💡Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve, often referred to as the Fed, is the central banking system of the United States. It plays a crucial role in setting monetary policy, including interest rates. The video mentions the Fed's role in cutting interest rates and its control over inflation metrics, which are central to the economic discussion.

💡Debt

Debt refers to an obligation that arises when one party receives credit based on a promise to repay an amount borrowed. In the video, the concept of debt is discussed in the context of government fiscal policy, where the speaker argues that the current economic system is based on a debt model that requires constant stimulus to service and debase the debt.

💡Asset Prices

Asset prices refer to the value of financial instruments, real estate, or other tangible assets. The video suggests that with continued stimulus and deficit spending, asset prices, including Bitcoin, property, and stocks, are likely to rise, potentially leading to wealth inequality as those who own assets benefit disproportionately.

💡Interest Rates

Interest rates are the cost of borrowing money and the return on savings and investments. The video discusses how the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates to around 2.5%, which is seen as a predictable move that has already been priced into the market and is not expected to cause significant market reactions.

💡Recession

A recession is a business cycle downturn that lasts for at least two consecutive quarters, characterized by a decline in economic activity. The video argues that the current economic situation is already in a recession, as it is being propped up by stimulus and deficit spending, and that without these measures, the economy would be in a much worse state.

💡Wealth Inequality

Wealth inequality refers to the unequal distribution of assets among different social classes or individuals within a society. The video suggests that as asset prices rise faster than wages due to stimulus and deficit spending, wealth inequality is increasing, as those who own assets see their wealth grow while others fall behind.

Highlights

The next 12 months may see significant bull market moves in the Bitcoin cycle.

Bitcoin's price often remains stagnant for the majority of the time, with occasional big moves.

Consistency in investment is key, focusing on long-term fundamentals over short-term price action.

The current price range of Bitcoin has been stable for an extended period, indicating a consolidation phase.

Policy changes post-election could trigger market movements, potentially positive for BTC.

Stimulus packages are expected regardless of election outcomes, which could be beneficial for Bitcoin.

The Federal Reserve's rate cutting cycle is anticipated and largely priced into the market.

Inflation control measures are expected to maintain a 2% target, influencing interest rates.

Unemployment rates and their impact on interest rates are closely watched for market signals.

Long-term investment strategies should focus on asset quality rather than short-term market fluctuations.

Bitcoin offers an alternative asset class for those unable to take on debt.

The current economic situation is characterized by significant deficits and stimulus measures.

The necessity of continued deficit spending is highlighted, as it supports GDP and prevents economic collapse.

Wealth inequality is increasing as asset prices rise faster than wages, making it crucial to invest in assets like Bitcoin.

The Bitcoin cycle suggests a potential positive price action for another year, following historical patterns.

Technical indicators for Bitcoin are suggesting a possible price bounce, setting up for a positive 2025.

The reliance on stimulus to maintain positive GDP growth is a significant issue, as it indicates the economy's fragility.

Bitcoin is positioned as the trade of the generation, offering a hedge against currency debasement and inflation.

Transcripts

hey guys this market update the next 12

months or so may be pretty wild for BTC

this is usually when we get really big

bull market moves in the Bitcoin cycle

so I want to talk about that in this

video but for right now being consistent

is the main thing if you look at this

data it shows that for the vast majority

of time Bitcoin actually doesn't do

anything it kind of sideways moves chop

solid dates as Checkmate calls it right

most of the time there's just no moves

so you have to actually not look at the

current price action you have to look at

what you think the fundamentals are

going to be over over that 12- month

period if you're trading for 12 months

or if you're just investing your dollar

cost averaging right but trading for 12

months what's the Outlook I want to go

through that in this video still in this

range unbelievable it's been like 30

weeks it's insane right 30 weeks of just

this downward chop solidation

distribution we're not breaking out of

it you can see there yeah we did Bounce

from here but we just still in this into

the election and then when they actually

start moving policy when policy changes

a little bit we're going to get some

action and I I think that's pretty

positive for BTC whoever wins it doesn't

matter because more stimulus is coming

whoever wins and so positive for BTC and

I want to explain that in this video If

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Via that link we're going into a Fed

rate cutting cycle this is completely

irrelevant it's not going to change

anything everyone knows it's coming

everyone knows they're going to come

down to around 2 and a half% right

that's because they want they control

inflation their fake measures of

inflation like pce going to be around 2%

and that's what they want it to be so

interest rates at 5% are ridiculous when

real inflation for their metrics their

fake metrics are around 2 and a half% so

they're going to bring it down to 2 and

a half% and then if it starts to go a

little bit lower they're going to cut

interest rates below that to be about 1

and a half 1.8 something like that to

stimulate it up we know that they want

to control that to 2% and so that's

where it's going to be they can control

that because all the metrics are fake

and all of the stimulus they pour in is

essentially designed to get this 2%

inflation so we know that it's not

exactly like a big news flash that

they're going to cut rates to 2 and

half% so the Market's priced it

absolutely irrelevant at this point it's

untradeable the real trade the real

trade I'll get on to in a second which

is completely unaffordable debt spending

stimulus must pour into markets to

create this 2% inflation change in fed

fund rates against the SEL trigger this

is kind of an unemployment trigger if

unemployment spikes above a little bit

um usually what happens to interest

rates they're coming lower everyone

knows everyone knows are coming lower

they're going to come to 2 and a half%

so it's not a surprise nothing's going

to happen along that it's the surprise

that we get with a high unemployment

print or something like that that

doesn't seem to be happening you can't

invest for that you can't invest for

this tiny little narrow window where you

may get some panic in the market you

have to invest over the longer term and

buy the best assets this is the CPI

index Trend as well you can see CPI a

lot higher above the trend of the last

expansion CPI is higher but if you go

back to well the 1990s you can see that

we actually had a period of low

inflation now remember how much stimulus

they pulled in and currency the basement

that had to happen to keep inflation

higher remember they want inflation they

require inflation because they require

to debase the debt that was previously

taken out that's the only way that the

fat currency debt based system works we

benefit from it as well by having

cheaper debt over time on the debt that

we take out so it's not just them versus

us it's all of us together in this debt

based system knowing that we have to

debase it and so if you can take debt

out at cheap levels great if you can't

then you're at a disadvantage because

you're not taking advantage of

essentially this currency the basement

and so Bitcoin is a way for people that

can't take debt to actually gain a real

asset and it's a way for people that can

take debt to maybe leverage that debt to

buy BTC like Michael saor does I don't

recommend that just buy BTC and hold it

and wait because the uh returns are

insane right 40% a year right now but

stimulus will always occur to to base

the currency to make sure that the debt

is remaining payable over time you can

see this here this is the federal budget

surplus and deficit insane deficits

insane deficits right now so when they

say the economy is strong because GDP is

positive look at the stimulus look at

the deficit that is required to keep it

there so I can't really look forward and

say wow I'm so worried about a recession

we're literally in it now we're living

in it right because without this we

would be minus 10% GDP right without

this stimulus GDP would absolutely be

negative and the whole system would

collapse on itself the debt based system

so we know that it's happening now the

stimulus is happening now we're in the

recession now they are debating the

currency now in order to keep things

positive so I'm not worried about a

recession in the future because they're

doing it right now and so they're going

to continue to do it because we know

they need GDP to remain positive and

they need uh inflation to remain

positive to the base of the debt they're

in it now so how are we going to

collapse further if it collapses further

guess what even more stimulus this is

the stimulus and this is the deficit you

can see the net interest right here is

one of the largest outlays in the

federal uh deficit right so this is

important because this is actually

changing over time as well this has been

like the second largest outlay in some

months this is the deficit for August

take this deficit away if the economy is

doing well take it away remove the

deficit what do you get you would

literally get a complete entire system

collaps so I cannot call for a recession

we're literally in it now without the

deficit you'd get minus GDP and the

system will collapse so the trade is to

know that this deficit must continue and

it is just the rate at which this

deficit occurs is it larger or smaller

but it is a deficit and that means

stimulus currency de basement asset

prices go higher and affordability of

those assets also becomes more

unaffordable for people that don't have

them so that is wealth inequality

happening you have to get into asset

and Bitcoin is a great uh you know

savior from this in my opinion but of

course there are others as well that

work but Bitcoin is the trade of Our

Generation it's a sweet spot trade young

still got a lot of uh returns in it but

potentially growing into one of the

biggest Assets in the world so deficit

spending will continue absolutely no

matter who gets in power and calling for

recession is ridiculous because without

this deficit we'd be one and so the

deficit is there forever and always and

that is the trade getting out of that

currency using that uh debt based system

to leverage real assets which is what

Michael sailor is doing but obviously I

don't recommend any leverage but this is

the trade right without this deficit

we're literally going minus GDP minus

10% 12% huge spon employment so they

don't let it happen without this deficit

we're in a recession and so recession

isn't coming it's here and so we need to

get out of it and the way we will become

poorer is the assets going way up in

price faster than our wages and that's

happening with Bitcoin and property and

the stock market pretty much at alltime

highs can we get a collapse yes we can

get a collapse if they want to take this

deficit away or if they want to shock us

and give themselves cover to print even

more money but the fact is the deficit

is necessary the spending is out of

control and the net interest is getting

larger and larger and larger over time

which is why they need these Cycles

where they can actually drop interest

rates refinance and kick the can down

the road yet again if we get a normal

Bitcoin cycle we've got around another

year or so left of positive price action

you can see that the Cycles are quite

regular so you have three positive years

and then a a big draw down three

positive years and a draw down three

positive years and a draw down so we've

got 2023 here which was a very good year

this year I would suggest that 43% is

not really an amazing performance this

year but of course we've got you know a

few months left and typically the winter

is a pretty good time for the Bitcoin

price um you know risk taking and

obviously you've got the election out of

the way and so people can start to price

things in and be more confident in you

know what's going to happen and so

there's a lot of change that could

happen over the next few months 43% is

still the best performing large scale

asset gold very good as well maybe

trying to price in a lot more inflation

but what's going to be happening right

rate cuts a potential easing cycle and

what does that do well that Sparks

inflation 12 to 18 months ahead of time

now risk assets priced that in early and

what happened happens when there's

inflation again well you get the next

draw down cycle and so that's the next

bare market for BTC and that will price

that in right so it looks like we are

just going through these Cycles over and

over and over again like I like I

suggested they need the Cycles to happen

to make sure everyone is looking the

other way while they print money and

then that inflation rears its head 12 to

18 months later everyone gets worried

the central bank has to do something

again so these Cycles seem to be

persisting and so it seems like we're

just going through the normal Cycles

decent performance last year decent

performance this year maybe decent

performance next year and then you have

to worry about the bare Market maybe

2026 or so if you look at a lot of

technicals here as well uh I'll just

show the poster on this one uh this is

the Bitcoin price here if you look at a

lot of technicals you have fear and

greed index down near Max fear you have

uh stochastic very very uh low right

here RSI also potentially breaking out

here you have Global liquidity which has

already broken out and you have the gold

price breaking out so a lot of these are

suggesting that you know we are in a

good setup for the price of BTC where

you you've got this kind of draw down or

a lot of risk taking has come out the

market people are looking the other way

not really interested in crypto right

now but a lot of these are suggesting

that potentially we get that bounce and

that would see us into 2025 which is

usually for the Bitcoin cycle pretty

good now what you can see here as well

is that this suggests that the reason

why GDP is positive in the states is

only because of stimulus this is a big

problem because the US continues to grow

the deficit at roughly 8% of GDP as can

be seen both track quite well over time

it's hard to ignore that nearly all of

our current GDP growth is coming from

government spending right so like I said

why should you worry about a recession

when we're in one now and the only thing

keeping us positive with GDP and

inflation is stimulus so do you think

they're going to take that stimulus away

suddenly and if they do that would

create a Monumental crash Bitcoin would

go down 80% and then they would have to

print unlimited amounts of money to bail

it out again they always bail it out

because we want it bailed out we don't

want everything to crash we want

everything to the base at 5 to 10% a

year to give us uh the opportunity to

actually Escape that this is the game

and the only game in town Bitcoin is the

way to play that and it's the best way

to play that in my opinion we can end

with some hopium as well this is from R

pal here so this is the global M2 chart

in Black Bitcoin as well Global M2 is

breaking out there is some stimulus

occurring you've seen a lot of

deflationary pressures out of China as

well and they're obviously stimulating

at different rates that stimulative that

debate currency makes asset prices look

more expensive remember it's not really

about making money in Bitcoin and

selling it into that F currency that

will always the base it makes Bitcoin

appear more expensive in that fat

currency but the real way to Value

Bitcoin is in goods and services and

commodities because they're the things

you actually want to consume you don't

want to consume fear currency so we can

see this as well this is the uh GMI

total liquidity index versus BTC that's

some hopium for the end of this video If

you trade crypto check out buybit 30,000

uh dollar deposit bonus and the crypto

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that link down below as well I'm James

my G chers for watching and I'll see you

in the next one