Mark Moss: Get Ready for an Inflationary Crash in Markets - Bitcoin, Real Estate, Stocks
Summary
TLDRIn this episode of Coin Stories, Natalie Brunell interviews Mark Moss, discussing the macro outlook on Bitcoin and the financial markets. Moss emphasizes the importance of looking at the big picture, predicting that despite current market slumps, a rate cut is imminent, leading to a global easing cycle that will boost equity markets. He also touches on Bitcoin's correlation with liquidity, suggesting it's on track to rise significantly as global liquidity increases. The conversation covers the impact of the U.S. presidential election on Bitcoin, with Moss suggesting a Trump win could be a catalyst for Bitcoin's integration into strategic reserves, potentially sending its value soaring.
Takeaways
- đ Mark Moss emphasizes the importance of taking a macro perspective on investments, advising against focusing too closely on daily market fluctuations.
- đ Moss explains that the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle, which began in November 2021, was anticipated to eventually shift back to an easing cycle, which is now occurring.
- đ He discusses the coordinated actions of major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, ECB, BOJ, and PBOC, and their impact on global liquidity and markets.
- đ Moss points out that despite the market volatility, Bitcoin has shown significant gains over the past year, outperforming traditional markets like the S&P 500.
- đĄ He suggests that Bitcoin's price movements are closely tied to global liquidity, and as liquidity increases, so should Bitcoin's value, with historical cycles indicating a six-month lag.
- đ Moss speculates on the potential impact of the US presidential election on Bitcoin, with different administrations having varying levels of support for cryptocurrencies.
- đ The conversation touches on the concept of 'crash up' versus 'crash down', with Moss predicting a possible inflationary crash where asset prices rise rapidly, affecting the standard of living.
- đŠ Moss highlights the influence of financial institutions and lobby groups on policy-making regarding Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
- đ He anticipates that Bitcoin will continue to gain mainstream adoption and will integrate into various aspects of finance and technology, potentially becoming a standard feature rather than a niche investment.
- đ Moss leaves the audience with a long-term perspective on Bitcoin investment, advocating for holding Bitcoin as an asset and focusing on the 'zoom out' thesis for wealth building.
Q & A
What does Mark Moss suggest people do when they're too focused on short-term market fluctuations?
-Mark Moss suggests that people should 'zoom out' and not get caught up in daily, weekly, or even monthly fluctuations as it can drive them crazy. He emphasizes the importance of looking at the bigger picture and long-term trends rather than getting overwhelmed by short-term market noise.
What is the significance of the Federal Reserve's actions on the economy according to Mark Moss?
-Mark Moss explains that the Federal Reserve's actions, particularly its tightening and easing cycles, have significant impacts on the economy. He mentions that the Fed's decision to tighten since November 2021 was expected to eventually lead to a lowering of rates, which is a part of a debt-based monetary system's need to expand over time.
How does Mark Moss view the current unemployment and inflation trends in relation to economic policy?
-Mark Moss observes that unemployment has started to tick up and inflation has begun to cool down, signaling a shift towards easing policies. He believes these trends are part of a coordinated global response, with central banks around the world preparing to ease in unison, which he anticipates will lead to a resurgence in global equity markets.
What is Mark Moss's perspective on Bitcoin's price not reaching six figures yet?
-Mark Moss is not surprised that Bitcoin has not reached six figures yet, as he believes the current price reflects the actual data and global liquidity trends. He points out that Bitcoin's price is influenced by global liquidity, which did not increase as quickly as he initially expected, leading to the current price levels.
How does Mark Moss analyze the correlation between Bitcoin and global liquidity?
-Mark Moss analyzes the correlation by looking at historical cycles and data. He notes that Bitcoin's price has a high sensitivity to liquidity changes, with an approximate 8.95 times multiplier effect compared to a 10% increase in liquidity. This means that Bitcoin's price moves more dramatically in response to changes in the monetary base than other assets.
What does Mark Moss predict regarding the upcoming U.S. presidential election's impact on Bitcoin?
-Mark Moss predicts that if Trump wins the election, there is a high likelihood that he will follow through on his stated plans to put Bitcoin on strategic reserves, which could lead to a significant increase in Bitcoin's price. Conversely, if Biden wins, he anticipates a more conservative price projection for Bitcoin, due to the current administration's less favorable stance towards cryptocurrencies.
What is Mark Moss's outlook on the potential for a market crash?
-Mark Moss does not predict a traditional market crash. Instead, he foresees a potential 'reverse crash' or inflationary crash, where asset prices increase so rapidly that the standard of living decreases for many people, despite the nominal prices not dropping.
How does Mark Moss view the future of Bitcoin in the context of government control and surveillance?
-Mark Moss believes that Bitcoin is too entrenched in the global financial system to be effectively controlled or stopped by governments. He suggests that while there may be regional variations in regulation, the decentralized nature of Bitcoin will ensure its continued use, especially in areas where it offers unique capabilities that traditional currencies cannot match.
What advice does Mark Moss give to those interested in Bitcoin as an investment?
-Mark Moss advises to 'zoom out' and focus on the long-term trends rather than short-term price fluctuations. He suggests viewing Bitcoin as a long-term asset to hold rather than something to be traded frequently. He also promotes the idea of earning in fiat currency and consistently investing in assets like Bitcoin for the long term.
How does Mark Moss think the role of Bitcoin will evolve in the next 5 to 10 years?
-Mark Moss envisions Bitcoin integrating into the financial system to the point where it becomes a normal part of society, rather than a separate asset class. He anticipates that Bitcoin will be used for transactions where it has unique advantages, such as micropayments and in regions with heavy government censorship, while traditional currencies will continue to be used for everyday transactions due to network effects and tax implications.
Outlines
đ Macro Outlook and Market Slump
Mark Moss discusses the importance of taking a macroeconomic perspective when analyzing market trends, emphasizing the need to avoid focusing too closely on daily or even monthly fluctuations. He suggests that the market is following a predictable pattern as central banks around the world, including the Federal Reserve, are transitioning from a tightening cycle to an easing cycle. Moss points out that despite unemployment rising and inflation cooling, the financial system, being debt-based, is designed to expand, which is evident in the central banks' actions. He also notes that other central banks have already begun easing monetary policy, and with the Federal Reserve signaling a rate cut, a global easing cycle is anticipated, which could boost equity markets. Moss also addresses the underperformance of Bitcoin compared to other assets and suggests that its current value is appropriate given the global liquidity situation.
đč Global Liquidity and Bitcoin Correlation
The conversation shifts to the correlation between global liquidity and Bitcoin's price movements. Moss explains that while liquidity has not increased as rapidly as expected, it has started to rise again after a period of decline. He draws a parallel between the choppiness in Bitcoin's price and the broader global equity market, suggesting that Bitcoin often follows a six-month lag behind liquidity trends. Moss also discusses the role of major central banks in driving liquidity and how their policies can influence Bitcoin's price. Additionally, he touches on the potential impact of the US election on Bitcoin, with different presidential candidates holding varying stances on cryptocurrency, which could either accelerate or hinder its adoption and price trajectory.
đŠ Central Banks and Monetary Policy
Mark Moss delves deeper into the role of central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, and their influence on global financial markets. He outlines the expectation that central banks will continue to ease monetary policy in unison, which is likely to boost equity markets. Moss also discusses the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs if the Federal Reserve and other central banks proceed with rate cuts and increase liquidity. He contrasts this with the possibility of a more conservative price trajectory for Bitcoin should the election results lead to a less crypto-friendly administration. Moss also addresses the concept of 'sound money' and how Bitcoin fits into the broader financial landscape, suggesting that despite regulatory challenges, Bitcoin's role as a store of value and medium of exchange is likely to endure.
đ Bitcoin's Future and Market Cycles
The discussion turns to the future of Bitcoin and how market cycles influence its adoption and price. Moss reflects on past bull runs and the current state of the market, suggesting that while there may be periods of decline or stagnation, Bitcoin has historically recovered and reached new heights. He considers the impact of increased mainstream adoption and how it could lead to Bitcoin becoming a more integrated part of the financial system, rather than a speculative asset. Moss also contemplates the potential for future market cycles to differ from past experiences, as Bitcoin matures and becomes more established.
đ Global Perspectives on Bitcoin
Mark Moss explores the global implications of Bitcoin's growth and adoption, considering how different countries and regions might respond to its increasing popularity. He discusses the potential for Bitcoin to become a more significant part of the financial system, particularly in countries with less stable currencies or more restrictive governments. Moss also considers the role of Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and the possibility that it could become a more widely accepted store of value, even as regulatory environments evolve.
đŒ Bitcoin and the Game of Money
In the final part of the discussion, Moss focuses on the strategic approach to investing in Bitcoin, framing it as a long-term 'game of money' where the goal is to accumulate and hold assets that appreciate over time. He advocates for a mindset of earning in fiat currency and converting it into appreciating assets like Bitcoin, which should be held indefinitely rather than sold for fiat. Moss suggests that this approach can help investors maintain a more strategic and less emotionally reactive relationship with market fluctuations.
Mindmap
Keywords
đĄMacro Outlook
đĄZooming Out
đĄTightening Cycle
đĄDebt-Based Monetary System
đĄLiquidity
đĄVolatility
đĄInflation
đĄBitcoin
đĄElection Cycle
đĄGame Theory
đĄGresham's Law
Highlights
Mark Moss emphasizes the importance of taking a macro perspective on financial markets rather than focusing on daily or weekly fluctuations.
Since the Fed announced tightening in November 2021, the market anticipated a future shift towards easing and rate cuts.
Global liquidity, driven by major central banks, is a significant factor influencing Bitcoin's price.
Unemployment rates and inflation trends are used as indicators for central banks' policy decisions.
Bitcoin has not reached six figures yet, aligning with global liquidity patterns and macroeconomic trends.
Over the last year, Bitcoin has seen a 130% increase, outperforming traditional markets like the S&P 500.
Global liquidity has been fluctuating, affecting Bitcoin's stability and growth.
The potential for coordinated global easing by major central banks could positively impact markets and Bitcoin.
Bitcoin's sensitivity to liquidity is significantly higher compared to traditional assets like gold.
Mark Moss discusses the potential impact of the US presidential election on Bitcoin's future.
A potential Biden administration could maintain aggressive stances against cryptocurrencies.
In contrast, Trump and RFK have shown a more pro-Bitcoin stance, which could influence global Bitcoin adoption.
Game theory suggests that if the US adopts Bitcoin more widely, other nations may follow suit.
Mark Moss predicts that Bitcoin could reach $400,000 if Trump wins the election and follows through on pro-Bitcoin policies.
Inflationary crash risks are a concern, where rapid price increases could reduce living standards.
Real estate prices are expected to continue rising with inflation, differing from past market crashes.
Bitcoin's role in the future may shift from a speculative asset to a more integrated part of the financial system.
Mark Moss suggests holding Bitcoin as a long-term strategy rather than focusing on short-term price fluctuations.
Transcripts
[Music]
hey everyone back in the hot seat is the
one and only Mark Moss Mark thanks for
joining me it's been a while so I'm
excited to catch up with you yeah it's
been so so long now since I've been on
the show so thanks for having me and I
always love talking to you like I said
we have a lot to talk about but uh yeah
let's let's get into this all right well
there's a lot to cover a lot happening
we seem to be in a little bit of a
September slump they're about to cut
rates so I just want to start with maybe
zooming out and getting your macro
Outlook what's happening right now well
I love that you said start by zooming
out because that's exactly what you have
to do uh people will drive themselves
crazy when they're too zoomed in and so
you do have to zoom out if if you're
looking at your portfolio on a daily
weekly even monthly basis you're going
to go crazy when you're looking at every
single piece of news trying to figure
out uh what what what's tradable I think
it'll drive yourself crazy so if we zoom
out I would say things are going right
as planned right as we all think they
would and what what I mean by that is uh
since the FED announced they were going
to start tightening in November of
2021 um people thought they would break
the market um we knew at some point
they're going to have to lower rates if
you understand the financial system as a
debt-based monetary system you
understand it always has to expand now
not always in a perfect straight line so
there are Peaks and valleys but we know
what's going to happen so uh they went
on the tightening cycle zooming into
kind of where we're at right now they
start projecting that they were going to
to uh start lowering rates or regime
shift from a tightening cycle to an
easing cycle and we s we could start to
see it in the data and so we could start
to see beginning of this year um
unemployment started ticking up uh
inflation started cooling down um they
started pivoting towards that all right
now Bitcoin hasn't been moving based off
of this but we know that they were going
to do this Jerome pal has just been
trying to hold this off as long as
possible but the sort of the proverbial
rock in a hard place has been um
tightening on him because we've started
to see the cracks as I said unemployment
Etc uh but also other governments other
central banks around the world so other
central banks have already started
easing but there's really four major
central banks and we'll get into
liquidity because that's the big driver
but when I when I think about it there's
really four major central banks that we
want to pay attention to in the Federal
Reserve obviously uh the ECB the boj and
the pboc and the you know in Europe they
already started easing but Japan and
China have been waiting they're waiting
for the us because it needs to be
somewhat coordinated of course we saw uh
was it about a month ago Japan tried to
move in advance without the without the
fed and uh that wreak disaster for the
markets and so they said okay hang on
we'll wait for the FED we'll wait for
the fed and so now that the FED has
signaled that they're going to shift
we're expecting rate Cuts you know
coming anytime now it's 100% the CME uh
group watch group is 100% chance that
they're going to lower rates the
question is how far um now China and the
pboc I'm sorry the the boj can now start
easing so the whole world will start
easing in unison and we'll see that
Global Equity start taking off again so
this is all working out sort of to plan
um we also know that typically the
summer is is is a bad time for markets
September is historically a bad time for
markets we have a hotly contested uh uh
election cycle coming up as well and so
I think the volatility we've been seeing
is sort of to be expected uh but just as
planned the liquidity Cycles are about
to pick back up and uh I think we'll get
right back on
track are you surprised at all that
Bitcoin hasn't hit six figures yet and
then that when it did reach its new
all-time high that we haven't been able
to really stay in that range we fell
back down to levels that some people
really didn't
expect uh no I'm not I'm not really
surprised and the reason why I'm not
surprised is because I look at the data
now if I would have if you would have
asked me a year ago where I think things
would have been I might have said they
should be at 100,000 but if you
understand why would Bitcoin get to
100,000 what's the driver of that and
then you look at that instead of just
this assumption I had made a year ago I
would say no so if you asked me a year
ago I would have said yes but when I
look at the data behind it I would say
no this is where we should be and and
just to remind everybody here again zoom
out over the last year since September
of 2023 we're up
130% in one year like come on guys like
the S&P 500 is doing 8% like get get out
of your own way here 13% year year what
about two years since September of 2022
we're up 242 per. so again you're going
to drive yourself crazy looking at a
monthly basis uh year-over Year we're
doing amazing no other asset in the
world is doing that but uh so no I'm not
surprised now again what is the driver
of this why does Bitcoin go up and and
there's a lot of factors but a large
piece of that is is This Global
liquidity and so uh I had expected the
liquidity to go up a little bit faster
but it didn't so what we saw is that
Global liquidity which is basically the
amount of money in the system actually
started going down so we saw right now
we're breaking new all-time Highs but it
ended in 2023 at about 171 trillion but
it hit its low in April and it basically
stayed from April all the way till about
July at that low period before it
started turning back up so when you look
at Bitcoin sort of that uh you know the
choppiness that we've had and sort of in
this range bound it's been over the last
six months which is the same period of
time that Global Equity hit that low and
has remained in that range now it's
turning back up and if we look at past
historical Cycles we see that Bitcoin
sort of sits on about a six-month lag so
it needs to gain that energy before that
next um you know next burst takes off
which puts us right into you know early
next year and again right back on track
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pioneering the future today yeah I saw
one of your recent videos and it piqued
my interest because Sam uh Callahan is
actually looking into this data of just
how correlated Bitcoin has been to
liquidity to the supply um M2 money
supply and you showed sort of these
cycles and these waves and it has been
this indicator um a little bit early
once it starts to take up you know that
bitcoin's going to follow what does that
tell us I mean for people whether
they're in investors in Bitcoin already
or thinking about it what should we draw
from the fact that as liquidity goes up
Bitcoin goes up yeah well there's a
couple things to keep in mind so one I
made a video it hasn't been released yet
but talking about the presidential
election cycle and who's going to win
Obama Obama who's gonna win Cala or
basically Obama uh Kamala or Trump right
and U what's gonna happen to the markets
and I haven't released this video yet
but basically I showed that it doesn't
matter if we go back through history and
look from Clinton we look at Obama we or
bush we look at Trump we look at U Etc
every president in the first three years
eight months of every single election
cycle the markets the S&P 500 are up by
about
50% every single president now there's
there's certainly lots of social issues
and lots of other issues but in regards
to markets the first three years and
eight months from January when they take
office to September the first three
years and eight months they're up about
50% so it doesn't really matter why is
that and that's going back to being on a
debt-based monetary syst system that
constantly has to expand and it's the
rising amount of liquidity in the system
now the thing that understand is that if
you look at a lot of people on Twitter
lately have been you know Bitcoin real
estate Bitcoin real estate and there's a
lot of people saying that real estate is
in a bubble and real estate is way
bigger of a bubble today than it was in
2008 well when you look at it in nominal
terms in US dollar terms it looks that
way when you look at it adjusted for
inflation which is CPI it looks that way
but when you adjust it for the rate of
debasement or just the even us M2 you'll
see we're nowhere even close to where we
were in 2008 prices and so you start to
see things differently and so what you
see is when the monetary system expands
true definition of inflation where the
liquidity goes up it's pushing all these
asset prices up because it's not a
bubble in real estate or the S&P 500 or
Bitcoin it's a bubble in the denominator
it's a bubble in the amount of money or
liquidity in the system now the
important thing to understand taking it
back Bitcoin is that different assets so
so the rising Tide Rises all boats so to
speak but different boats move at
different rates so what we see is
there's different assets that have
different sensitivities to the liquidity
so the S&P 500 is sort of like a perfect
proxy in Us Media and real estate as
well they move about at the same rate um
but if we look at Bitcoin it's much more
sensitive so it moves at about an
8.95 times
sensitivity whereas gold moves at about
a 1 4 five times sensitivity which means
for every 10% increase in liquidity gold
would go up by about 14% And Bitcoin
would go up by
90% now if we look at that what does
that tell us where we're now and where
does it tell us about where we're going
well luckily the US government the CBO
projects where that debt will be going
and what we can see is that for the
since 2019 the US monetary base has been
expanding by 10% per year
right and it's scheduled to continue
that I believe it'll accelerate so if
we're going up by 10% a year bitcoin's
going up at about 90% of that which is
why again we're right on track yeah and
this is why the volatility is actually a
feature not a bug all roads lead to the
money printer I agree with you I think
no matter who wins this election they're
just going to have to print um so let me
ask you just a little bit more about the
election because we had the presidential
debate recently I'm always hoping that
someone will bring up Bitcoin it never
happens I had this hope that maybe Trump
would talk about the Strategic Bitcoin
stock pile it didn't happen they
actually didn't even cover the economy
that much and what their plans were or
address the debt um so do you think that
if if the election goes one way or
another it could be more of a headwin
versus Tailwind for Bitcoin especially
because we know how closed off the Biden
Administration has been to this industry
100% um you know when you're looking at
projection and you're looking at numbers
into the future um if the numbers are
too far off it almost seems like the
analysis is sort of worthless but in
this in this regard because we have such
a pivotal moment happening uh we sort of
look at this so what I would say is 100%
so we have Camala you know the Biden
Administration Kamala Administration has
been overly aggressive against Bitcoin
and just cryptocurrency in general from
you know what's happened with Katon
lon's Bank custodia you know the FED
denying Bank Charters um all the way
down to attacking on and off ramp Etc um
as well as just taking an aggressive
stance to it overall including you know
Elizabeth Warren passing all types of
bills that could make it even illegal to
potentially mine Bitcoin or transfer
Bitcoin on a self- custody basis so very
very aggressive on that level um on the
other side we have you know RFK and and
Trump both sort of taking this Pro
Bitcoin stance and now of course they've
come together in that regard and so we
certainly have this very Stark
difference but here's really where it
gets really interesting for me anyway is
that you know when we think about
Bitcoin adoption we think about Game
Theory and so who's going to move first
and in the world of investing or just in
the world period it's a competitive
World business is competitive but in the
world of investing it's competitive and
so if a fund is outperforming me because
they've added gold well I should
probably add gold if a fund outperforms
me because they've added Bitcoin I
should probably add Bitcoin as well but
what about when a nation adds Bitcoin
and so we saw El Salvador do that now El
Salvador is one of the poorest nations
in the world so they're not a big
influencer the world however they've
done so well with it that now president
buk has been meeting with other leaders
of other nations small Nations UAE Omar
things like that and we've seen them now
starting to take a pro pro Bitcoin uh
policy starting to mine Bitcoin Etc but
what happens if the United States with
the dollar Reserve System what happens
if they move on to a Bitcoin standard
not a Bitcoin standard necessarily but
let's say put Bitcoin on the reserves
which is what basically Trump and RFK
have said they would do what happens
then well Game Theory would tell us
competitive World investment World tells
us that every nation will have to
respond to that every single one and so
this is why this is a really big outlier
the way that I look at it
is in Trump's first term he did he did a
lot of what he said he would do for
example he said that for every one new
regulation I put into place will remove
three and actually if you look at his
term he removed five for every one that
he put in so for the mo you know he said
he drain the swamp I mean that's a very
broad term you know we can debate that
but the point is is that I believe sort
of his word if he says that he would put
Bitcoin on the Strategic reserves and he
has rfk's platform and Cynthia lus who's
already put the bill forward I think
that probably has a very high likelihood
of going through now right now the
markets are pricing in about a 65%
chance of winning for from the Electoral
College for Trump right now so he has
about a 65% chance of winning
and if he wins there's probably a 90%
chance that he actually does follow
through with that and puts it on the
reserves and if he does that then all
the other nations have to move and put
Bitcoin on their books so if that
happens when we look at where Bitcoin
could be by next year I mean we could be
certainly at the top end of that range
maybe in the sounds insane could be at
the three $400,000
levels now if Cala wins on the other
hand then obviously all of that I just
talked about is off of the table but
that doesn't mean that Bitcoin dies
Bitcoin is a global asset regardless of
what the US does Bitcoin is going to
continue going up Bitcoin is there as a
relief foul for the money Printing and
as we've both laid out already that's
not going to stop no matter who the
president is that's going to continue so
I think if Cala wins we're on the much
more probably conservative side of the
projection which might be in the hundred
you know $100,000 range by next year
maybe a little higher 150,000 but if
Trump wins I think we could be at the
top end of that range which again would
be you know somewhere in that $400,000
range wow it's so crazy to think about
those two very uh Divergent paths and
obviously we can hope that bitcoin's
going to do very well in the near term
but I can totally understand why some
people have felt very bearish in the in
in the short run wondering where it's
going to go and some analysts that I've
had on my show where I follow on Twitter
some of them are predicting a massive
crash where Bitcoin actually tanks
everything across the board goes down
we've already seen um things like real
estate decline in prices in in various
states are you are you one of the people
that are predicting a crash then money
printer or sort of this like choppy
sideways as they start to increase
liquidity um and coordinate with the
central banks around the world um so I'm
not one of the doomers predicting a
crash as a matter of fact I've been the
opposite so uh back to Global liquidity
if you look back to October of 2022 I
put a video on my channel said there is
no Market crash coming and here's why in
January I made another video said that
there's no crash coming I said here um
here's the feds pivoting here's the data
I made another video said it's time to
buy I'm buying now in in August of 2023
I made a video that the bare Market's
been cancelled and I've been making
videos saying that uh what we're really
expecting or what I'm expecting is a is
a crash I'm expecting a massive crash
and I'm expecting a really really bad
crash but it's a much different crash
than most people expect you see a crash
if you think about a crash what's
everybody afraid of a recession a market
crash what does that mean well if things
crash let's say what most people think
my my retirement portfolio drops my real
estate my home drops my I lose my job I
get a lower paying job my business
doesn't do as well I I don't make as
much money that that's what most people
think of but what does that mean what
all that means is that the quality of my
life would go down the standard of my
living goes down I don't have as much
money so I have to now eat hamburger
meat instead of steak so really what
they're saying is a crash means my
standard of living goes down but you see
prices don't have to drop for that to
happen prices could go up so fast that
my pay doesn't keep up and my standard
of living also goes down so it's a
reverse crash and while everybody's
expecting a deflationary crash I'm
expecting an inflationary crash now the
results are the same we both have a
standard of living that's been reduced
however I think a reverse crash and
inflationary crash is actually much
worse and the reason why it's much worse
is because on a deflationary crash
at least the markets reset and people
get a chance to get back in right my
kids could eventually buy a house but in
an inflationary crash you never get
another chance it's just too late and so
I think that's where we're going um now
will there be crashes I mean what is
your definition of that of course
there's going to be massive volatility
along the way uh but I don't expect any
long sustained depression you know maybe
we see some sort of flash crashes sort
of like we saw in 2020 that probably
last half the time something like that
not tradable events U because it's going
to be volatile along the way I mean if
you look at the chart of the Yar
inflation hyperinflation and you I'm
sure you've seen it right with the red
lines overlaid the volatility was insane
and so we'll have that uh but I'm
expecting the crash up it's time for a
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show that's really interesting I haven't
heard that concept before but you're
right I mean thinking about how they're
going to have to print in order to
sustain the debt and and keep everything
liquid I I figured that yeah real estate
prices asset prices they're just going
to continue to go up even if they
temporarily maybe crash fash in the
short run they have to go up over the
long run that'll be great for Bitcoin
but if you're trying to buy a house it's
not like it's going to be this situation
that we had in 089 where suddenly real
estate is cut like in half and you can
finally get your house uh it feels very
very different this time around and
you've been in let's let's talk about
that for a second just just for
everybody listening so um you mentioned
that there are some markets where real
estate has gone down but on a US
national median basis real estate is not
down it's up and that's because as I
made the case it's a perfect proxy for
this inflation so the US has been
increasing M2 by about 10% since 2019
and they're scheduled to continue to do
that so in five years from now where is
real estate it's up
50% it's up 50% now not every single
house if you you have to understand
there's no such thing as a real estate
market there's thousands of markets so
even take Miami yeah Miami is up 8%
year-over-year
but there's condos in Miami that are
down 50% but wait you said Miami was up
yes as a whole but that doesn't mean
that some condos along the water that
were overbuilt aren't still down 50% um
in Austin it was the best performing
market for 20 years overall it's down
about 20% Austin right now but there's
still some areas of Austin that are way
up and so you have to understand it's
very pocketed but I think overall it's
going to be moving up at the rate of
inflation we know that's going to be at
least 10% per year and that puts assets
up at least 50% in 5 years from now and
I think people need to be prepared for
that and taking action today for that
yeah you know you've been in more Cycles
than I have you've seen more bull runs
I'm I'm still pretty new and and that
bull run that we experienced when I
really launched this podcast like
2021 um that was unlike anything I've
ever experienced with just how much
attention was on this space Bitcoin
everyone wanting the content everyone
thinking that it's going to 100 and
150,00 000 and it's been so long since
that feeling has been in the industry
and in the community that I wonder if
future Cycles will be different um or if
the attention has kind of permanently
moved away can I get your take on that
since you have seen multiple bull runs
and you've been producing content in the
space like eventually do people all of a
sudden turn around and say oh my God the
price is up now it's at six figures I
have to dive in I have to learn about it
because it just feels like there's this
big lull and everyone's either paying
attention to the election in politics or
Ai and other Tech sectors that's a great
question Natalie so you're right I have
been through uh a bunch of Cycles in
Bitcoin but I've also been in a bunch of
Cycles so I started my career buying
real estate um in Southern California at
the bottom of a big crash so from ' 89
to ' 92 the markets had crashed I
started buying real estate in 1995 so at
the bottom of that crash and I and I and
then I was investing in Internet stock
so my roommate had quit his job we're
day trading these things called internet
stocks we were talking about these weird
names that nobody knew anything about in
like in like 98 99 um yeah and the the
reason why I bring that part up and then
obviously Doom crash but the reason why
I bring that part up Natalie is because
we were trading these things called
internet stocks and people thought we
were crazy talking about these internet
stocks but today there's no such thing
as Internet stocks they're just
companies mhm and the reason why I bring
that up is because we'll come fast
forward so now uh I started I started
looking at Bitcoin at in around 2013
when the price started running up and I
was going to buy I'm like oh my gosh I
don't know what this thing is but it's
going up then it spectac spectacularly
crashed I didn't buy it I started buying
in 2015 around 300 bucks and I saw it
run from 2015 to 2017 got up to
$2,000 and I was writing a
cryptocurrency newsletter every once in
a while someone on Twitter wants to call
me out oh look this guy used to be
crypto yeah I talk about it all the time
I wrote a crypto newsletter and I
personally turn I I personally turned
about 100 Grand and over $5 million in
that time period um and uh we we made
some amazing calls but the reason why I
say that is because then 2018 happened
and the market crashed and then 2019 and
it seemed to drag on forever and I did
get to the point Natalie where I'm like
this will probably never C come back why
didn't I sell I'm such an idiot I should
have sold it's never coming back that
pit of despair you've all seen that like
Wall Street psychology thing uh the pit
of despair was like it's never coming
back what's going to happen but it did
and every time it crashes we start
asking ourselves if it's ever going to
come back and it does every time now
back to will the second part of the
question that you asked is will people
eventually get much more interested in
it and the reason why I gave you the
story about the internet is because I
think as it's making more mainstream
adoption as it's m making more
mainstream headlines as Black Rock has
now added to their ETF and Larry Finks
talking about it on TV I think it just
it disappears into the social construct
and it's not this new crazy thing that
people don't know about anymore so I
would think that just like internet
stocks are basically gone today I think
cryptocurrency will be gone as well and
Bitcoin will just sort of Fade Into the
the mainstream and it won't be all these
people wanting to know what it is most
people already know what it is at this
point so uh to your point one yes the
Cycles tell us that it will come back we
always believe it won't but it will but
number two I think collectively people
will probably you know be more
interested in other subjects or maybe
more interested about how Bitcoin
changes other things so I've often said
you know so I'm a I'm a partner in the
Bitcoin opportunity fund so we're
investing into companies that are
building on and around the Bitcoin
ecosystem and I say we don't need more
Bitcoin products we need Bitcoin in more
products yeah it needs to go in and and
and so back to the content I think the
same way we don't need more Bitcoin
content we need Bitcoin to find its way
way through all the content where it
just sort of now fits into the culture
fits into society so I think that's how
it's going to change I think it already
yeah I like that the idea that Bitcoin
is going to integrate into everything so
much that you don't really talk about it
as its own individual thing um well that
actually makes me think of one of my
final questions for you which is just
the the question of what Bitcoin will be
in 5 to 10 years with the opposing
forces of you know control and and
governments wanting to surveil and
monitor and extract as many resources
and um extract the taxes as much as they
can what do you think Bitcoin will be
because there are so many people who
want to see it as Freedom money as a
truly peer-to-peer Network as a digital
cash there are others that seem to be
okay with it being more of that store of
value that is within the framework of
all the other stores of value and
equities and gold and all of that how
how do you see this playing out do you
think that we'll be able to freely
transact or we're going to have to go
through these Gatekeepers that are all
regulated and essentially monitor what
you're doing no I don't think there's
going to be The Gatekeepers that are
going to moderate now obviously country
by country region by region those things
can change I mean the United States
could pass some Bill where they say
We'll Kill You On Site if we catch you I
mean that could theoretically happen
it's a it's what we call a possibility
but not a probability there's really not
a probable chance that would happen it's
possible sure um I don't think that the
US would take that stance as of right
now I think the US has uh We've
entrenched ourself the bitcoiners have
entrenched themselves into the system
too much at this point meaning there's
uh several dozen high ranking members of
government Congressman Senators Etc that
are bitcoiners Patrick McKenry who led
the financial services committee hangs
the Bitcoin white paper in his office we
have you know um Senators like lumus um
putting bills in place uh states have
been um putting into their state
constitutions guaranteed rights for it
um so I think it's just it's just way
too entrenched in that standpoint but
also the laws aren't really made by our
lawmakers the people we elect to go make
laws the laws are really made by the
lobby groups and then they're given to
lawmakers just to co-sign right and so
the lobby groups if you think about who
they are pharmaceutical at the top but
the financial services committee is is
pretty high up there and when you look
at Black Rock and Fidelity and these
financial institutions who have spent
probably billions of dollars to build
Bitcoin products I don't think they're
going to be real happy if the government
tries to make them illegal so I think we
have them on our side as well now to the
I think kind of the question you asked
could they say well you can buy through
an ETF but you can't really own it you
can't self- custody it well as I said
some states have already enshrined that
rights in their constitution so that's
going to be a battle but ultimately I
think it fails because uh how's that
worked with drugs and drugs are physical
drugs have to be grown cultivated packet
ship process smuggled and then
distributed and when they tell us not to
do drugs it doesn't make us want to do
drugs right we don't have it doesn't
incentivize us to do that but how do
they stop something completely digital
obviously they can't but when they tell
us that that we can't store our wealth
or transact in a way that we can't uh or
that they can't steal from us it sort of
makes us want to do that like gun cells
go through the roof when they talk about
banning guns or or cracking down on guns
but then we have to think globally so
even if the US were to do that against
everything I've said I mean what about
the rest of the world and then I would
say on top of that so so that being said
I I I want to make the statement that
governments can't stop but I don't think
the US can stop it I don't think even if
the US did the other nations can't stop
it but I do want to throw this out there
because this is going to change it a
little bit we're talking about in the
question you asked me would we be using
it for spending could they take that
away from us in five years would be
using as a medium of exchange right and
I think the answer is no Natalie and the
reason why is gresham's law or or the
reverse of gresham's law which basically
means that bad money drives out good or
good money drives out bad right the
reverse of that and so let me just give
you a practical example of that um maybe
a lot of your listeners already know
this but
pre-1965 quarters and dimes were pure
silver in 1965 they took the silver away
and now they're basically junk medals
now a
1964 quarter will still get you about a
gallon a gallon it was a gallon of gas
back then and today it's still a gallon
of gas it's worth about three bucks but
the point I have is that you will not
find anybody using a pre-65 dime quarter
why no one's going to spend that di why
would you spend it so they take those
dimes out of circulation and they spend
the post 60 5 quarters in dimes no one's
spending those dimes right and so that
is the thing that we have going on as of
right now the dollar is an amazing
payment network if I think of it that
way and so we'll continue to use it and
we're going to continue to hold Bitcoin
now there's also the tax implications
that's another another topic that we
could bring up in the United States
doesn't pertain to the rest of the world
necessarily but I think until we get to
a Tipping Point which I don't think is
in 5 years it's probably further out
we're going to continue to use the bad
money the post 65 quarters we're going
to continue to hoard the good money the
pre-65 quarters and that's the Bitcoin
that's a good analogy that's an interest
interesting way of putting it I think it
does differ depending on where you are
because sometimes Bitcoin is I I mean
it's it's different than the dollars and
you you're going to want to maybe spend
your Bitcoin and I don't
know I I think it depends a little bit
about it certainly brings uh up a good
point Natalie and and this is actually a
very good point I'm glad you brought it
up so there are things that Bitcoin can
do that nothing else can do so for
example Bitcoin can do micro payments
right you can't send 35 cents on the
internet anywhere in the world so
Bitcoin can do that so in those
instances where we need to do micro
payments which is going to be massive
with AI we didn't even get a chance to
get into that but Bitcoin is person
meaning you don't have to be a person to
get a bank account and so now with the
rise of AI and robots they could have
their own Bitcoin accounts and they
could do micro payments and so Bitcoin
will start moving into that range it'll
do what dollars can't do so micro
payments number one number two um heavy
authoritarian regimes that have heavy
censorship North Korea Afghanistan uh
you know n in Canada with the trucker
rally in times where the government's
trying to crack down on censorship of
payments then Bitcoin can be used as
well so Bitcoin will certainly get
adoption in those areas where it can do
things that the traditional payment
system can't do unfortunately I'm not
happy about this but unfortunately I
believe that uh governments get more
authoritarian in the near future than
less and so there will be an increased
demand and and I typically think of the
demand drivers for Bitcoin being two
things uh
one will governments print more or less
money in the future right more and
number two will governments become more
authoritarian in the future and I think
both of those are main drivers and so
Bitcoin will be used in those areas
where we can't use traditional fiat
currency and that's why I said it it
will happen I just think it's further
out than five years great points um all
right well I know we're short on time I
could talk to you for an hour but
anything you want to leave the audience
with um any final
thoughts uh boy I would just say that I
think again as we started out just
saying zoom out and ultimately what I
want to say we we didn't really get a
chance to get into this but I have a
free ebook on my website and it's just
how to retire off Bitcoin taxfree um and
and I and I frame up what's called the
money game the game of money and in the
game of money people have to understand
this and I start off with a quote saying
when people ask me at what price will I
sell my Bitcoin I look at them and just
say you have no idea what game we're
playing and and the reason why I just
want to end with this is because of the
zoom out thesis right so the goal in the
game of money which is certainly not our
highest calling in life but in the game
of Building Wealth is to earn in fiat
currency and buy assets and those assets
should be building month after month and
I should my goal should be to die with
more assets than I was born with than I
have now and so I want to earn in Fiat
and buy assets and hold those assets
forever the goal is not to sell assets
for Fiat and when you start to think
about it in those terms it helps you
zoom out like I don't care what the
price of Bitcoin is going to be in a in
a week or a month or in six months from
now because my goal is to hold it
forever as as sailor would say right
forever yeah um and so I think you have
to think of it in those terms we want to
be earning always be earning in Fiat
saving in an asset like Bitcoin and it's
forever and it's longterm and I think if
people take that Viewpoint I think
they're going to be uh much more calm
they'll sleep better at night and
they're going to be much more successful
than most people I love it you've
already made me feel more bullish
because I've been feeling the
bearishness in this whole market so Mark
Moss thank you so much I'm going to have
all of his info in the show notes make
sure to check out his book on Communist
Manifesto uh his show on YouTube I watch
the videos they're fantastic so Mark
hope to see you again soon thanks thanks
Natalie thank you so much for checking
out this episode of coin stories this
show is for entertainment and
educational purposes only nothing should
constitute as official investment advice
and you should always do your own
research my inbox is open if you want to
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