Is The Bottom In? đ How Fed Could Ignite A Rally! đ
Summary
TLDRIn this dynamic presentation, the speaker confidently declares that the market bottom has been reached, not based on a gut feeling, but backed by extensive data analysis. The discussion navigates through a wealth of information, focusing on Bitcoin's position and potential, scrutinizing Federal Reserve actions, and dissecting the impact of ETF flows and GBTC dynamics. With a bullish outlook, the speaker forecasts a promising future for Bitcoin, underpinned by strong data points and market trends, suggesting an imminent rise despite current volatilities. The talk is enriched with insights into macroeconomic factors, investor behaviors, and strategic market movements, making a compelling case for Bitcoin's upward trajectory.
Takeaways
- đ The presenter is bullish on Bitcoin, citing comprehensive data analysis as the basis for their confidence.
- đ Discussion includes detailed examination of Bitcoin's current status, predictions, and the influence of external factors like the Federal Reserve's decisions.
- đž Highlights the importance of ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) in Bitcoin's market dynamics, especially in relation to recent developments and demand.
- đŽ Emphasizes the impact of the GBTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust) sell-off on the market, but suggests new ETFs are absorbing the impact positively.
- đ„ Shares optimism about Bitcoin's future, referencing a prediction of significant price increase within 12-24 months.
- đ€ Raises concerns about misconceptions surrounding ETF demand and attempts to debunk myths with data.
- đ§ Addresses the 'stealth QE' (Quantitative Easing) actions by the Federal Reserve and their implications on the market.
- đ Discusses the potential for the tokenization of financial assets as a future step in the evolution of digital currencies and blockchain technology.
- đ Analyzes Bitcoin's order book to argue that a thin market depth could lead to rapid price increases under certain conditions.
- đș Offers insights into the strategic moves by large Bitcoin holders and institutions, highlighting their influence on the market's direction.
Q & A
What is the main reason given for the presenter's belief that the bottom of the market has been reached?
-The presenter believes the bottom of the market has been reached due to data analysis, not just a personal feeling. They emphasize that their review of various data points suggests this conclusion.
What is the 'Bitcoin playlist' mentioned in the script?
-The 'Bitcoin playlist' refers to a collection of content specifically focused on Bitcoin, which the presenter mentions as being available for those interested in Bitcoin-only information.
What is the presenter's view on the Federal Reserve's actions and its impact on markets?
-The presenter is critical of the Federal Reserve, suggesting they don't always tell the truth and engage in 'stealth quantitative easing.' They believe the Fed's actions and decisions, such as keeping a lid on markets, contribute to market volatility and uncertainty.
How does the presenter interpret the relationship between ETF demand for Bitcoin and market sentiment?
-The presenter refutes the idea that ETF demand for Bitcoin is waning, arguing instead that the demand remains strong. They present data and analysis to support the view that ETF interest in Bitcoin is not decreasing significantly.
What was the significance of the four-week timeframe mentioned in the script?
-The four-week timeframe is highlighted as a critical period leading up to a significant event, likely related to the Bitcoin market. The presenter uses this to underscore the urgency and importance of the current market situation.
Can you explain the presenter's mention of 'stealth QE' and its implications?
-'Stealth QE' refers to stealth quantitative easing, which implies the Federal Reserve is indirectly injecting liquidity into the economy without openly admitting to it. The presenter suggests that this hidden activity impacts markets and is not aligned with the Fed's public statements.
What is the 'gutsy call' made by the presenter at the beginning of the script?
-The presenter's 'gutsy call' is their assertion that the bottom of the market is in, based on their analysis of various data points. This suggests a confidence in a market turnaround or stabilization.
What does the mention of UK inflation beating expectations indicate in the context of the script?
-The presenter references UK inflation beating expectations as a positive macroeconomic sign, contrasting it with the U.S. They speculate whether the UK's management of inflation is better or different compared to the U.S.
How does the presenter view the current state of the Bitcoin bull market?
-The presenter believes that the Bitcoin bull market is still in its early stages, referencing a prediction that Bitcoin could reach a $200,000 target. They suggest that the market is not yet experiencing a bubble or excessive frothiness.
What implications does the script suggest regarding the tokenization of financial assets?
-The script suggests that the future of financial markets could involve the widespread tokenization of assets like stocks, bonds, and real estate. The presenter views this trend as being underpinned by cryptocurrency technologies, indicating a significant shift in how financial assets are handled.
Outlines
đ Optimistic Analysis of Bitcoin's Future
The speaker begins by asserting confidence in Bitcoin reaching its bottom, based not on a hunch but on extensive data analysis. They express gratitude to their audience and mention notable community members, highlighting the importance of the collective insight into Bitcoin's trajectory. The narrative quickly dives into detailed discussions about the current state of Bitcoin, including its volatility, the impact of the Federal Reserve's decisions, and the debunking of rumors about declining ETF demand. Additionally, the speaker criticizes the Federal Reserve's monetary policies, implying they indirectly support the market through 'stealth QE.' Amidst macroeconomic analyses, including UK's inflation control, the speaker suggests Bitcoin's potential growth, underpinned by the continued interest in Bitcoin ETFs, contrary to the rumors of waning demand.
đ Deep Dive into ETF Dynamics and Market Movements
The narrative delves into the specifics of ETF activity and market dynamics, pointing out a discrepancy in the speaker's volume model but emphasizing the overall bullish sentiment for Bitcoin. The detailed analysis counters the notion that ETF interest is diminishing by showcasing significant Bitcoin purchases by ETFs, excluding GBTC. The speaker addresses the retail financial advisors' slow but growing interest in Bitcoin, predicting a substantial impact on the market. Despite GBTC's sell-off, the analysis suggests this may offer a unique opportunity for new ETFs to absorb Bitcoin, fostering a positive market outlook. The speaker also touches on tax implications affecting GBTC investors' decisions, contributing to a nuanced understanding of the market's complexities.
đĄ Turning Points and Market Resilience
Focusing on critical market indicators and events, the speaker highlights the anticipated end to GBTC's market impact and Grayscale's adaptation to market pressures by reducing fees. This section outlines a broader market analysis, predicting the imminent cessation of GBTC's negative influence. It presents a detailed account of Bitcoin's resilience, evidenced by stable ownership and the anticipation of a price increase to entice long-term holders to sell. The speaker also cites significant figures and trends, such as institutional interest in Bitcoin and the tokenization of assets as the future of finance, positioning Bitcoin at the center of a transformative financial landscape.
đ Bitcoin's Journey Amid ETFs and Global Perspectives
This part of the script provides an analytical perspective on the ETF market's influence on Bitcoin's price and the strategic moves of major players in the space. The discussion extends to global financial dynamics, including Qatar's credit rating and its implications for Bitcoin. The speaker further examines the ETF inflows and outflows, comparing them to GBTC's sell-off, and presents a calculated optimism for Bitcoin's future price based on the balance of market activities. The narrative reinforces the belief in Bitcoin's bullish trend, supported by solid data and the strategic positioning of ETFs.
đ Market Dynamics and the Path Forward
The final segment wraps up the analysis with a focus on market dynamics, emphasizing the thinness of the Bitcoin order book and its implications for rapid price movements. The speaker underscores the significant potential for Bitcoin's price increase if not for GBTC's continued sell-off, painting a picture of a market on the brink of a substantial upward trajectory. Concluding with encouragement for the audience to stay informed and engaged, the speaker hints at the exciting developments ahead for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market, reinforcing a message of optimism and forward-looking enthusiasm.
Mindmap
Keywords
đĄBitcoin bottom
đĄETF (Exchange-Traded Fund)
đĄGBTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust) dump
đĄFederal Reserve (FED)
đĄQuantitative Easing (QE)
đĄInflation control
đĄBear market
đĄTokenization
đĄMarket depth
đĄBull market
Highlights
Announcement that the bottom is in for Bitcoin, based on extensive data analysis.
Discussion on the successful track record of data-driven investment calls over the last couple of years.
A comprehensive review of Bitcoin, promising the most detailed analysis available.
Introduction of a four-week bullish timeframe for Bitcoin.
Analysis of current Bitcoin volatility and price movements, including a rebound from a dip.
Debunking rumors about waning ETF demand for Bitcoin, backed by data.
Critique of the Federal Reserve's policies and their impact on market perceptions and Bitcoin.
UK inflation control contrasted with the US, suggesting possible outcomes for Bitcoin.
Prediction of a significant Bitcoin price increase in the next 12 to 24 months, targeting $200,000.
Explanation of ETFs' role in Bitcoin investment and the inaccuracy of reports on their declining demand.
Insight into Grayscale's GBTC selling pressure on Bitcoin's price and the potential for recovery.
Analysis of long-term holding trends in Bitcoin, indicating a strong belief in future price appreciation.
Impact of new Bitcoin ETFs on market dynamics and price support.
Discussion on the potential of Bitcoin and blockchain for the tokenization of all financial assets.
Final thoughts on the inevitability of higher Bitcoin prices due to market mechanics and investment flows.
Transcripts
hey everybody Welcome in as usual I make
gutsy calls today my call is the bottom
is in and guess why not because I feel
it's in but because all the data I look
at tell me it's in so thank you all for
coming uh and again I'm Human After all
but the data has been extremely good to
us over the last couple of years and uh
let's walk through a ton of data and
let's walk through as well the most
comprehensive view of Bitcoin on the
face of the planet so thank you all for
coming thank you to the mods in the chat
as well and I just missed something here
from chiku chiku thank you for coming
too and master of coin all the fun
people here and we have a new KPM shout
out the watch Goose I wish I would
joined patreon earlier
well never too late but uh bare
Market billions are made in the bear but
don't worry we're still finding Alpha
like yesterday yesterday we picked clean
Spork and it went to 20% in a day so
it's pretty good anyway let's go uh
Bitcoin playlist uh remember this is
here if you want Bitcoin only content
playlist is added here and we only have
four weeks to go okay this is this is
Point number one as to why I'm very
bullish four weeks four weeks is not a
lot of time it'll go so fast so fast
indeed in addition there's a lot of
concern about the FED I just wrote this
half an hour ago I spoke about how
Bitcoin yes it's been volatile yes it
dipped to 61k they rebounded to 64k in a
few hours and now it's about 63k so it's
a little bit all over the place there is
a dump there is a gbtc dump we'll talk
about that in detail and uh there's a
lot of rumors as well going around that
the ETF demand is waning it's not there
I'll prove that that's wrong everybody's
always worried about the fed and we
don't need to talk more about the FED
except for the fact that when the FED is
going to make a decision it puts a lid
on markets people get very nervous
because they don't want a nasty surprise
but this fed doesn't surprise to the
nasty but they also don't quite tell the
truth they jaw bone a lot they try keep
a lid on things and they say well we
have this magical unicorn 2% inflation
goal and we're doing quantitive
tightening when really they're not okay
I've been talking about Stealth QE
stealth quanti of using for ever since
the btfp program came out and this is
from Chris McAllister shout out to sanj
as well for sharing how has anyone
forgot about this it bleeds out via the
Deferred asset account every month and
is certainly the reason why the FED
funds is broken okay the FED is broken
fed funds is broken rates are broken
every day that goes by with the FED
paying IB RRP btfp Etc right as those
Securities roll off it is fiscal
expansion it is QE it is stealth QE so
do not kid yourselves government is
printing like there's no freaking
tomorrow you just don't see it in your
pocket yet so Stern words there now we
always have to look at the macro when we
look at Bitcoin so I'm going to start
off some y Ming boring macro news but
this is good news out of the UK hello
everybody to team UK out there hope
you're all doing well well this is
interesting uh UK inflation is under
control so the US had some nasty CPI PPI
surprises but the UK actually beat
expectations so either the UK government
is better at cooking the inflation books
than the us and we know the US is really
bad at that or they actually have
inflation licked we'll see but I do know
that the central banks coordinate with
each other and they also talk about this
miraculous unicorn 2% and the US seeing
the UK in this situation will be a
positive sign now time for some exciting
news shout out to Danto he comes out
with this just six hours ago Amir 3x
over 12 to 24 months is what he expects
for Bitcoin that is a $200,000 Target
the bull market is just in its third
inning now everybody's talking about
Innings all of a sudden I think there
are nine in total so we're third the way
into the bull market which is I actually
very much agree with and he's not
feeling a bubul or froth right now he's
at an event in London blockworks event
and people aren't going crazy but the
future is very bright so shout out to
Dan nice work uh now the other piece of
fake narrative that's floating around
that is everybody very nervous is the
ETF demand is waning it's in the toilet
it's like nobody's interest this Bitcoin
ETF stuff before anymore well no that's
not true if you look at ibit here and
the volume that they're doing it is
insane yes there was a little bit of a
weird thing happening yesterday normally
I have my volume model
indicator and when there's a certain
amount of volume I can calculate what
the inflow will be that was off
yesterday and it's the first time it's
been off by a lot so Maya Cula here the
model is broken but the times are also a
little bit different some weird stuff
going on all over the place the t+ one
and all these different types of things
I can't quite get a handle on but when
you look at this chart here shout out to
hle 15
the ETFs are selling is incorrect it is
BS and look at the bottom row the ETFs
excluding gbtc bought nearly 10,000
Bitcoin over the last two days so the
data says no no no this is not slowing
down not by any manner of means and
remember as well the retail financial
advisers are only just beginning to have
the so-called penny drop in their brains
to help their customers allocate towards
Bitcoin it's a lengthy process and we'll
start seeing the juice of that squeeze
come out now over the next 90 days it's
begun to hit and remember when people
start Auto allocating a percentage of
their retirement fund paycheck 401K Isa
whatever fund it is around the world
super annuation in Australia then we'll
see that constant bid kick in okay now
another view of the ETFs not selling not
one of the nine new ETFs are selling
shout out to Bel chunis pretty wild that
one that none of the nine newborn
ETFs after Bitcoin being down for nearly
a week all right and a 13 11% drop
depending on where you measure it from
the they are still adding to their
Bitcoin bags okay yes of course G gbtc
we'll talk about it in great detail in a
minute has been very very dumpy
craziness like we thought that that you
know what was flushed but no it's still
there but let's talk about ibit for a
second and I'll break down a lot of
numbers as well with some charts in a
minute some new exciting charts too ibit
has the number two
ETF in year-to-date flows on the face of
planet Earth ladies and gentlemen that
is massive now if you had asked anybody
would this be the case 47 days in and
remember we missed the first 12 days
that ibit would be the number two
biggest ETF on the
planet you'd say you're crazy okay so
these things aren't slowing down get rid
of that fud now gbtc however is selling
and according to Arkham uh they did pump
some more Bitcoin to coinbase again I
mean the drainage of this stuff actually
has me surprised I thought it was
slowing down there about 10 15 days ago
it continues to accelerate and here
another 5001 Bitcoin is being pumped
over about 238 million dollar worth and
that will be sold later today the
question is can the new ETFs gobble it
up and I think yes because I'll share
data and I'll average it out across
Fidelity ibit and the average dumpage
and how even just with black rock alone
they are more than absorbing everything
from gbtc but there's more this is one
of the gbtc charts it shows you the
dumpage it wasn't the worst dumpage day
yesterday but was pretty bad the day
before was the worst dumpage day uh but
still a ton is hitting the market and
again if this wasn't happening it would
be a different kettle of fish all right
so and remember as well I'll State this
very clearly the
money in Bitcoin in gbtc is not going
into the 9u ETFs the 9u ETFs are buying
this so it's actually almost like a
blessing in disguise that these 9u ETFs
have access to bitcoin because if it
wasn't for great scale there would be no
access and I'll explain that with some
charts as well towards the end of the
show I'll prove it to you this is crazy
absolutely crazy but hey there's more
now the question is will gbtc go to zero
I get this question all the time and the
thought is no there's always some people
trapped with uh long-term capital gains
uh very low cost basis and they're not
going to incur 20% hit or even higher
depending on where they are by selling
their gbtc so some portion of it will
what stuns me is nearly half of it is
all done by speculators the Genesis the
dcgs the ftxs ETC they are the ones in
there but from Bob here this is exactly
my situation I have sold some shares of
gbtc but I can't sell them for ibit
because the tax liability would be too
high so I just take the gbt tax tax of
1.5% a year instead okay that's the
logic here and for from Rip Van Winkle
right I figure at least 40% of the BDC
in the fund is deep in profit and that
fund will not go to
zero interesting Rip Van Winkle said 40%
because that's exactly how much has been
dumped out of it so that means maximum
20% left to go if rip is right and I
think he's going to be very ballpark
right so
again the last of the the flush is is
nearly there that's why I say the
Bottom's in for many other reasons and
guess who's capitulating Mr Sunny Boy
capitulates gray scale to lower ETF fees
as outflows keep
climbing they lost half their bag 12
billion outflows since January and now
this like okay we're not going to be
able to rip our customers for one and a
half% anymore we've got to capitulate
which is good news too and that will
also stem the bleed then
what happens next what do the 9 ETS do
where are they going to find the Bitcoin
they can't can't knock on the hey coin
base can I get some more of that gbtc
stuff uh they'll say um sorry um they're
not selling anymore anyway this is the
evolution of exactly what happened shout
out to rational rout you can see here
black is ibit that's all you need to
know they have more than consumed all of
the dump from grayscale now at the
beginning of the year gray scale had
640,000 Bitcoin now they got a lot less
we'll share those numbers in a second
too another cool piece of news getting
off the grayscale bandwagon for a minute
here uh this is from Larry Fink the
fster he said he did talk H about how
Bitcoin ETF was the first step to what
he thinks is the biggest step of all the
next step is the tokenization of all
Financial assets that means every stock
every Bond every piece of real estate
etc etc will all be tokenized in his
vision of the future crypto is the
underpinning of exactly
that all right this is the biggest money
runner on the face of the planet and
he's telling you the tokenization of
everything is coming and he told you the
Bitcoin ETF is coming this guy does not
fool around and he does not make
mistakes so when he speaks listen up
carefully now what's really interesting
about this is is what's Elizabeth Warren
going to do when this guy wants to
tokenize everything with crypto she is s
so as they say in the old world now
other breaking news wed Capital says
retraces are normal this current 18%
133% 15% whatever Bitcoin preh having
Trace is very close to equaling the
minus 19% preh having retrace in 2020
and remember for those of you who don't
remember 2020 was a very very bumpy time
because of
c19 we are basically the same and again
if it was not for the gbdc dumpage we'd
already be on the moon so make sure you
have your moon boots handy I tell you
that's a simple fact of life and I'll
prove it to you as well coming up now
first of all before we get to the fun
charts micro strategy has more more
Bitcoin than China who has China
government has
194,000 confiscated Bitcoin and the US
government has 210,000 confiscated
Bitcoin combined 400,000 and they're
huddling which is kind of interesting
and uh yeah we know Michael saor bought
again yesterday now in other fun news we
have different parts of the world Kar
has been upgraded to doublea from AA
minus by fit lifting the gasr country's
credit rating above that of France and
the United Kingdom we're talking about
the United Kingdom twice today wow now
I'm thinking out loud here it's like the
many rumors and where there's smoke
there is fire always always always I
know somewhere somehow katar are
allocating to bitcoin question is how
much do they have have they started how
much they have planned to allocate and
just imagine for a second what
allocating to bitcoin will do for the
credit rating of a country Madness by
the way since I started Bitcoin shot up
700 bucks woohoo good Juju on the
channel here now let's talk about the
Bitcoin black hole day 47 raw
numbers big thing to take away here
another nasty red but the nastiest red
ever was yesterday Tuesday and when I'm
talking about the nastiest red ever this
is the biggest dip that we've had net
from the flow so the flow into Fidelity
was low 39.6 million the flow into black
rock ibit was only 75.2 million and I
ran the numbers I calculated every
single average for every single fund you
can't make this up the average flow into
Fidelity every day into the Bitcoin ETF
is $150 million the average flow into
ibit every single day is $276 million a
day okay the other seven ETFs average 15
million in a day split between them so I
don't really analyze them too much
because they're crumbs and there's no
point in doing that but that is still
substantial when you add the nine
together they are pulling in on average
$440 million per day for 40 7 days
straight on average now the fun part the
gbtc dump average per day is 273 million
which is 3 million less than Black Rock
alone and fun comment for the kids on
the show watching what is 440 million
minus 273 million well that's the net
flow so drop a comment below if you got
your kids watching I always like to make
them do some homework while we're here
now ETF macro update what looks like
over 47 days you can see black rock had
a very weak day the weakest day they've
had for 20 days which is kind of
interesting Fidelity also a nothing
burger and we know after a quiet day
they have a busy day now the volumes
yesterday did not speak to the craziness
but now I know that everybody is buying
the dip retail are snagging these
$63,000 $62,000 $61,500 Bitcoin and I
know because I have firsthand experience
people have their limited orders I
bought the dip yesterday in a proxy but
here we are
gbtc will slow and the other 9 ETFs will
accelerate okay so worst case scenario
worst
case there's $120,000 $10,000 Bitcoin
needs to leave gbtc over the next three
or four months that's it when that
happens there is nothing left on the
Shelf unless of course long-term holders
sell now this is the money flow you can
see it wasn't a good day uh but still
not too bad uh now we did have I have
this red line that shows you the
aggregate money flow into the ETFs we
had the biggest dip ever in the history
of these ETFs so you can see those two
big negative dips that is the worst
we've ever had especially two days in a
row but you know what happens after two
bad days you get good days and that's
just how this thing works at least over
the last 47 days now we still have 24
billion into the nine new ETFs which is
stunning and 44,000 Bitcoin into these
nine new ETFs that cannot be sniffed at
and how many went back into the system
yesterday
5,269 Bitcoin uh and the day before is
2,228 all thanks to massive dumpage from
grayscale and a tiny slowdown in the
buying from the ETFs the question is
what's going to happen next let's look
at a couple of charts that will tell you
exactly what what's going to happen next
and this is why I believe the bottom is
in at
61k which I also telegraphed yesterday
too now this is from Bitcoin Munger and
what he did with his beautiful his
finger painting is almost as good as
mine no we're both terrible at this but
we've got different skills you can see
here this is the one-year huddle wave
okay and what
happens when the one-year hudle wave
does not
dip the answer is the price goes much
higher and basically we will likely need
to see much higher prices to entice the
long-term holders I.E the oneyear plus
holders to part with their Bitcoin it's
not happening they're not letting go
it's like that old guy from the NRA
Pride for my cold dead fingers you're
not going to get you're not going to get
it from these long-term holders and
proof of that is this chart from glass
Noe with Bitcoin up over 130% in the
past year yet dipping 133% in the recent
week an impressive 68% of all Bitcoin
has not been traded for over a year and
should history repeat itself these
Bitcoins might only change hands at
significantly higher prices we're
talking Dan tapier 200k plus levels and
the high percentage of dormant coins
even now suggests that Bitcoin is just
beginning its bull market Journey this
is history this is data bottom is in
we're going higher now how high and how
fast can we go is this final chart which
is very eye opening and it's a bit of an
eye chart so I'm going to walk through
it pretty slowly so you all get it now
we have here uh how to interpret this
this is the order book and basically the
takeaway is the Bitcoin order book is
thin all right this is where people
represent like the the left hand side is
shades of blue are the bids where people
want to buy Bitcoin and the stuff in
pink are the sell orders people that
want to sell at certain prices now if
you look at the amount of buy orders P
the green blue it's more than the pink
but the real scary thing is if you look
at as the price goes up which are the
sell orders these are the prices again
at which sellers are willing to sell
their Bitcoin and the size of how much
they're willing to sell and you can see
here there's not much available for sale
up to
75,000 okay and this is described as a
very thin order book where again there
are not many buy or sell orders close to
the market price which means that there
is less Market depth which means there
is a large large if a large transaction
came in looking to buy a lot of Bitcoin
and if gbtc wasn't dumping we would be
at $75,000 in minutes literally that's
just the math of how markets work
there's not much available for sale if
gbtc wants not dumping we'd be above 75k
already and we're going there it's just
a matter of how many weeks left again
four weeks to the
having one month to go it's going to be
a fun time thank you all for coming
don't forget to hit the like subscribe
to the Bitcoin only if this is what you
like if you want to get smarter you will
not find Bitcoin content like this
anywhere on the planet not my words
that's what people say uh but thank you
all for coming thank you to the mods in
the chat too have a great day and I'll
see you all later
[Music]
bye-bye
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