Why the world population won’t exceed 11 billion | Hans Rosling | TGS.ORG

Summary

The speaker discusses historical population growth, highlighting a shift from high child mortality rates to increased survival due to advancements like industrial soap, piped water, and medical interventions. They explain the 'population explosion' as a natural response to children surviving, not an exponential growth, and predict a continued increase to 11 billion people. The speaker advocates for access to contraceptives and education, rather than forced family planning, emphasizing the importance of voluntary, informed choices for sustainable population control.

Takeaways

• 🌱 Historically, the average number of children per couple was six, but due to high child mortality rates, the population did not grow exponentially until the advent of modern medicine and sanitation.
• 🌟 It took 5,000 years for the human population to reach 1 billion, highlighting the slow growth before the Industrial Revolution.
• 🚿 The Industrial Revolution brought significant changes like industrially produced soap, piped water, and medical advancements, which drastically reduced child mortality and led to population growth.
• 🌱 The population growth was not exponential after 1960; it has been linear, indicating a falling growth rate each year.
• 🌐 The current global population is expected to reach 11 billion not because of an increase in the number of children born, but due to the aging population and increased life expectancy.
• 🔄 The balance between population and nature has shifted from one controlled by death rates to one controlled by family planning and the ability to separate sexuality from reproduction.
• 📊 The population structure, or 'population pyramid,' shows a base of children that will not increase in number, but the total population will grow as these children age.
• 🌱 Africa is expected to have the most significant population growth due to higher birth rates, while Asia's growth is slowing as birth rates decrease.
• 🌐 The movement of the global population towards Africa is a concern as it correlates with regions of poverty where birth rates tend to be higher.
• 🌱 Family planning and access to contraceptives are key to managing population growth, but they must be provided voluntarily, not forced, to be effective.

Q & A

What was the average number of children per family before the Industrial Revolution?

Before the Industrial Revolution, on average, two parents had six children.

Why did the population not grow significantly in the past despite having large families?

In the past, despite having large families, the population did not grow significantly due to high and tragic death rates among children and young people.

How long did it take for the human population to grow from 10 million to 1 billion after the start of agriculture?

It took 5,000 years for the human population to grow from 10 million to 1 billion after the start of agriculture.

What were the key factors that caused the population growth after the Industrial Revolution?

The key factors that caused the population growth after the Industrial Revolution were the availability of industrially produced soap, piped water, and medical advancements, which led to a decrease in child mortality.

What is the term used to describe the rapid increase in population after the Industrial Revolution, and what has been the actual growth pattern since 1960?

The term often used is 'exponential growth,' but since 1960, the growth has been linear, meaning the rate of increase has not been accelerating.

Why did people not apply Family Planning until their children started surviving?

People did not apply Family Planning until they saw their children surviving because the death rate had to fall before the birth rate would decrease.

How does the speaker explain the inevitable growth to 11 billion people despite stabilizing birth rates?

The speaker explains that even with stabilizing birth rates, the population will grow to 11 billion due to the aging of the current population and the natural process of people moving through age groups without an increase in the number of children or life expectancy.

What is the current global life expectancy, and how does it affect the population growth?

The current global life expectancy is 71 years, which contributes to population growth as people live longer and the number of children per family remains stable.

Why does the speaker argue against forcing family planning measures on people?

The speaker argues against forcing family planning measures because it can backfire and is not ethically acceptable. Instead, he suggests providing access to contraceptives and improving living conditions as a way to encourage voluntary family planning.

How does the speaker describe the shift in population growth from Asia to Africa?

The speaker describes the shift in population growth from Asia to Africa by explaining that while the number of children in Asia has stopped increasing, in Africa it continues to grow, leading to a net increase in the global population as children conceptually move from regions with lower birth rates to those with higher birth rates.