🚨 THIS is YOUR September Warning: THIS data is CRAZY! Get your CASH READY TO BUY! #marketcrash

Summary

Caric with Money discusses September's market seasonality, noting a tendency for downturns in the last weeks of the month. He analyzes historical S&P 500 data since 1979, highlighting average and median returns, and identifies weeks three and four as typically volatile. The video also covers market valuations, the fear-greed index, and economic indicators like personal income and PCE. Caric shares his investment strategies, including options trading and dollar-cost averaging, and provides insights on the Russell 2000 and Nvidia's potential. He emphasizes the importance of remaining cautious and planning trades based on market conditions rather than hopes.

Takeaways

• 📈 The speaker, Caric, provides an update on market trends, focusing on September seasonality and historical market behavior during specific weeks of the month.
• 📊 Discusses the current market situation, noting that large-cap growth stocks have outperformed but other market sectors like staples, utilities, energy, and financials are gaining momentum.
• 📉 Highlights that the market tends to experience drawdowns in the latter weeks of September, with historical data showing a higher likelihood of negative returns in weeks three and four.
• 💹 Mentions that as of August 29th, 2024, large-cap growth stocks are considered overvalued by 5.2% according to Morningstar's valuation.
• 📊 Shares that the Fear and Greed Index is in the greed zone, suggesting a potentially overextended market.
• 📈 Points out that personal income and PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) numbers are growing, aligning with the Fed's inflation target.
• 📊 Delves into historical S&P 500 weekly returns since 1979, indicating a pattern of market stability early in September followed by a downturn in the latter half.
• 💼 Discusses the potential impact of the US dollar's strength on equity markets, noting an inverse correlation where a strong dollar often corresponds with a weaker S&P 500.
• 💹 Talks about the performance of the S&P 500 following interest rate cuts, suggesting that markets typically perform well 12 months after such economic measures.
• 📈 Shares an optimistic outlook for Nvidia's growth, suggesting it could become a $1 trillion company, and discusses the author's personal investment strategy in the stock.

Q & A

What is the main focus of Caric's video update?

The main focus of Caric's video update is to discuss the market's seasonality in September, highlighting specific weeks where market downturns are typically observed, and providing an analysis of market data and trends.

What discount is mentioned in the video, and what is the deadline to take advantage of it?

A 16% annual discount for Patreon is mentioned, and the deadline to take advantage of it is midnight on August 31st.

What is the significance of the date August 31st in the context of the video?

August 31st is significant because it is the last day to take advantage of the Patreon discount and it marks the end of August, leading into the month of September which is the main focus of the market analysis.

How does the performance of large cap growth stocks compare to other parts of the market as of the video's recording?

As of the video's recording, large cap growth stocks have seen a lot of outperformance relative to other parts of the market. However, sectors like Staples, Utilities, Energy, and Financials have been gaining momentum since July 10th.

What is the current valuation of large cap growth according to Morning Star as of August 29th, 2024?

According to Morning Star, large cap growth is considered overvalued by 5.2% as of August 29th, 2024.

What is the fear and greed index indicating according to CNN's data mentioned in the video?

The fear and greed index is indicating a state of 'greed' as it is back over 60, suggesting a bullish market sentiment.

What is the historical trend for the S&P 500's performance in the month of September as discussed in the video?

Historically, the S&P 500 tends to experience selling pressure and market downturns in the last two weeks of September, with the most significant drawdowns occurring in weeks three and four.

What is the correlation between the US dollar index and the S&P 500 according to the video?

There is a significant inverse correlation between the US dollar index and the S&P 500, where a stronger US dollar is associated with weaker equity market performance, and vice versa.

What is the Bank of America's forecast for the US dollar index by July 2025?

Bank of America forecasts the US dollar index to continue to decline, expecting it to be just a little under 100 by July 2025.

What is the Money Vest Index indicating about the current market conditions as of the video's recording?

The Money Vest Index is indicating overbought conditions in the market, with over 91% of stocks trading above their 20-day simple moving average, suggesting potential caution is needed due to the high index value.