NVDA Stock - Whats Next With NVIDIA?

Summary

In this Nvidia daily update, the presenter dives into the current performance of Nvidia stock, analyzing its potential for a correction after a significant rally. The presenter discusses technical indicators, including the nine EMA and MACD, pointing out that the stock has lost momentum, suggesting a potential short-term pullback. They highlight the importance of seasonality and the historical tendency for market corrections during this period. Despite the potential for a dip, the presenter believes Nvidia could rebound, especially if it retests key levels around $150. The video concludes with a look at options flow and the outlook for the coming weeks.

Takeaways

• 😀 Nvidia stock has seen an impressive rally recently, nearly doubling in value over 100 days, leading to concerns about a potential correction.
• 📉 The stock has experienced a 2.5% drop, closing at $167, raising the question of whether this marks the beginning of a correction after a significant rally.
• 🔄 For the first time in months, Nvidia has closed below its 9 exponential moving average (EMA), signaling a possible shift in momentum.
• 📊 Although there is a loss of bullish momentum, this doesn’t necessarily indicate an immediate crash, but rather a potential short-term correction.
• 💥 The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator is showing signs of weakness, suggesting that momentum may continue to fade in the coming days.
• 📅 Seasonally, the market has historically shown weakness around the end of July and the first few weeks of August, which aligns with the current trend.
• 🔍 A potential pullback could occur in the short-term, with a possible move toward the 21 EMA at around $160, or even a deeper correction to $150.
• 💼 The video discusses the concept of market cycles, with Nvidia potentially entering a weaker phase similar to past years' trends, offering a reloading opportunity for investors.
• 📉 If Nvidia continues to drop below key levels, including today's low of $164, it could trigger further declines, with targets at $150-$145.
• 💡 On the weekly chart, a bearish engulfing candle pattern below $165 would signal a more significant correction, with potential for rapid downside movement.

Q & A

What is the primary focus of this Nvidia daily update video?

The primary focus of the video is a technical analysis of Nvidia's stock performance, discussing its recent rally, potential pullback, and important technical indicators like the 9 EMA and MACD.

What does the speaker suggest about Nvidia's recent stock performance?

The speaker notes that Nvidia has experienced a significant rally, nearly doubling in value from its lows. However, the stock showed signs of weakness, with a 2.5% decline on the day the video was recorded, raising the possibility of a short-term correction.

What is the significance of Nvidia losing the 9 EMA?

The loss of the 9 EMA is seen as a key signal of fading bullish momentum. It is the first time since the rally began that Nvidia closed below this moving average, suggesting that the stock may be entering a period of weakness.

What role does the MACD play in this analysis?

The MACD is a momentum indicator, and its elevated levels are seen as a warning sign. The speaker is particularly watching for a potential bearish crossover, which would signal that the bullish momentum is fading and could indicate a short-term correction.

How does seasonality impact the analysis of Nvidia's stock?

Seasonality factors are discussed, with historical data showing that the market tends to experience a bearish phase from late July to early August. This pattern suggests that Nvidia may face a small pullback during this period, although such pullbacks have historically led to significant recoveries.

What are the key price levels the speaker is watching for Nvidia?

The speaker is closely monitoring the $160 level as a potential support zone. If the stock falls further, the $150-$145 range is seen as a key area for a deeper correction or a potential buying opportunity.

What does the speaker say about the importance of the $150-$145 range?

The $150-$145 range is significant because it represents important support levels based on previous resistance and breakout points. If Nvidia revisits this range, it may present an opportunity for a rebound and further bullish movement.

What does the speaker mean by a 'bullish retracement'?

A bullish retracement refers to a temporary pullback in an overall uptrend, where the stock consolidates or corrects slightly before continuing its upward movement. This is contrasted with a bearish retracement, which could signal a longer-term downtrend.

What would be the implication of a bearish engulfing weekly candle?

A bearish engulfing weekly candle, if Nvidia closes below $165 by the end of the week, would be a strong bearish signal. This pattern could indicate a sharp sell-off and a faster decline towards the $150-$145 support range.

What is the speaker's outlook for Nvidia in the coming weeks?

The speaker is cautious about Nvidia's short-term outlook, expecting potential pullbacks or corrections. However, they remain overall bullish on the stock, particularly if it finds support at key levels like $150-$145, which could set the stage for a continued upward trend into the end of the year.