Best NVDA Price to Buy. Earnings, Forecast Analysis & a Stock to Short | Nvidia Inc | Martin Shkreli

Summary

The video script discusses NVIDIA's quarterly results, highlighting the company's revenue and market expectations. It suggests that while NVIDIA's reported numbers were not as high as anticipated, the guidance provided was conservative but still strong. The speaker speculates on the stock's potential reaction, suggesting it might be a good buying opportunity after an initial dip. The script also touches on NVIDIA's future prospects in AI, robotics, and automotive sectors, and briefly mentions a short position on Cassava Sciences.

Takeaways

• 📈 Nvidia's Q2 earnings report shows an 8% revenue miss, with actual revenue at $26.3 billion against a market expectation of $30 billion.
• 📉 The market reacted negatively to the earnings report, causing Nvidia's stock to drop by 10%, which the speaker believes is an overreaction.
• 💡 Nvidia's guidance for the next quarter is $32 billion, which is below the street's high-end estimate of $34 billion, indicating a potential shortfall.
• 🌐 Taiwan Semiconductor is highlighted as a key partner for Nvidia, where a significant portion of Nvidia's capital expenditure is directed.
• 🚀 The speaker anticipates Nvidia's potential growth in areas like advanced AI, robotics, and automotive industries, suggesting a possible path to becoming a $1 trillion company.
• 🤔 Despite the negative short-term market reaction, the speaker considers the long-term prospects for Nvidia to be positive, but acknowledges the stock's high market cap and the risks involved.
• 💭 The speaker mentions the conservative nature of Nvidia's guidance, suggesting that the company typically beats its forecasts by a significant margin.
• 📊 Nvidia's financials are discussed, with a focus on the company's revenue, net income, and cash flow, indicating a strong financial performance.
• 🔍 The speaker plans to listen to Nvidia's conference call to gain a deeper understanding of the company's performance and future plans.
• 📉 The speaker also discusses another company, Cassava Sciences, suggesting it is a potential short opportunity due to its weak clinical data and recent legal troubles.
• 🆕 The speaker introduces a new product, 'godell', which aims to compete with Bloomberg by offering comprehensive financial data and tools at a lower price point.

Q & A

What is the speaker's initial reaction to Nvidia's quarterly results?

The speaker initially reacts negatively to Nvidia's quarterly results, predicting a market downturn of around 10% due to the revenue missing expectations and the guidance being lower than anticipated.

What does the speaker consider a 'good number' for Nvidia's revenue in this quarter?

The speaker considers a revenue number of $30 billion to be 'maybe barely enough' but not as high as they expected, which was $31 billion.

What is the speaker's opinion on Nvidia's guidance for the next quarter?

The speaker believes that Nvidia's guidance for the next quarter, which is $32 billion, is not exciting enough for a hypergrowth stock and is a conservative estimate that could be improved.

What does the speaker think about Nvidia's stock price movement after the earnings call?

The speaker anticipates that Nvidia's stock price will drop, but not as much as the initial market reaction suggests, proposing that a 5% drop might be more appropriate.

What is the speaker's stance on buying Nvidia's stock after the earnings release?

Despite the initial negative reaction, the speaker considers Nvidia's stock a potential buy if it drops further, suggesting that a drop of 8% or 10% could present a good buying opportunity.

What does the speaker refer to when mentioning 'Taiwan semiconductor'?

The speaker refers to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) when mentioning 'Taiwan semiconductor,' which is a key partner for Nvidia's chip production.

What is the speaker's view on Nvidia's future prospects in the technology industry?

The speaker is optimistic about Nvidia's future, citing its potential in areas like advanced AI (AGI), robotics, and automotive technologies, which could drive significant growth for the company.

What is the speaker's prediction for Nvidia's market cap in the long term?

The speaker predicts that Nvidia could become a $1 trillion company, although this would likely take over a decade and is contingent on the company's success in key technology areas.

What is the speaker's opinion on the risks associated with investing in Nvidia?

The speaker acknowledges the risks of investing in Nvidia, including the possibility of a recession, production delays, and market volatility, advising caution and a long-term perspective.

What is the 'godell' system mentioned by the speaker and how does it relate to the discussion?

The 'godell' system is a financial data platform that the speaker is promoting as an alternative to Bloomberg. It offers real-time market data, news, and analysis, and the speaker offers to analyze stocks for users who join the platform.

What is the speaker's advice on trading Nvidia's stock after the earnings release?

The speaker suggests that Nvidia's stock might be overdone at a drop of around 10% and considers it a potential buying opportunity, with a trade idea of a bounce back to around $125.