Is Bitcoin FINALLY Ready For The Parabolic Phase Of The Cycle?
Summary
TLDRThis video script explores whether Bitcoin is poised for a parabolic market phase. It analyzes Bitcoin's current downtrending channel, its recovery, and the need for a weekly candle close above the channel top to signal a breakout. The script discusses the importance of the channel bottom as a support level, the potential resistance at 71k, and the historical patterns suggesting a breakout 150-160 days post-harvest. It also touches on the significance of the 21-week EMA as a bullish indicator and the possibility of a reaccumulation phase before a true breakout.
Takeaways
- đ Bitcoin is currently in a downtrending channel on the weekly time frame, with recent price action showing signs of recovery towards the channel's top.
- đ Historical channel bottom rebounds suggest it takes on average 2 to 4 weeks for Bitcoin's price to move from the channel bottom to the top.
- đ For a sustainable breakout to new highs, Bitcoin needs a weekly candle close above the channel top, which has not happened in the channel's life cycle.
- đ The channel bottom is significant as it represents the old all-time high resistance, now acting as a new all-time high support for the past six months.
- đ On the monthly time frame, the channel bottom shows as a point of rejection, with Bitcoin holding and retesting this level as strong support.
- đ A breakout from the current channel would face the next resistance at 71k, which is historically a crucial level before a major price movement.
- đ Sideways price action and downside wicks are common in the reaccumulation phase post the 'harvest' event, typically followed by a breakout after 150 to 160 days.
- đ A weekly close above 6,600 is seen as a key level to reclaim support and end the downside deviation bargain buying period, solidifying Bitcoin's return into the range.
- đ The 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) is a bull market indicator; deviations below it in a bull market present bargain buying opportunities.
- âł Bitcoin is not quite ready for a parabolic phase yet, but it is setting the stage with key price actions and consolidation within the reaccumulation range.
- đ Historical patterns suggest a breakout is likely around late September, approximately 150 to 160 days post 'harvest', aligning with the current cycle's trajectory.
Q & A
What is the current trend of Bitcoin according to the video script?
-The script suggests that Bitcoin is in a downtrending channel on the weekly time frame and has been trying to find support to enable price expansion above the channel bottom.
What does the script indicate about the recovery of Bitcoin's price?
-The script indicates a fantastic recovery of Bitcoin's price after deviating below the channel, suggesting a potential uptrend from the bottom to the top of the channel.
How long does it typically take for Bitcoin's price to move from the channel bottom to the channel top according to the script?
-On average, it takes two weeks for Bitcoin's price to move from the channel bottom to the top, with a maximum of four weeks, including periods of consolidation.
What is the significance of a weekly candle close above the channel top for Bitcoin?
-A weekly candle close above the channel top would indicate a breakout to new highs in a sustainable fashion, ending the series of lower highs and suggesting bullish momentum.
Why is the channel bottom considered important in the script?
-The channel bottom is important because it represents the old all-time high resistance, which is now acting as a new all-time high support for the past six months.
What is the significance of the 71k resistance level mentioned in the script?
-The 71k level is the high resistance of the overall reaccumulation range historically seen around the halving event, and breaking this resistance is crucial for Bitcoin to move towards new all-time highs.
How does the script describe the sideways price action and downside wicks seen in the cycle?
-The script describes sideways price action and downside wicks as part of the reaccumulation phase post-halving, which is a period of consolidation before a potential breakout.
What is the significance of a weekly close above 6,600 for Bitcoin according to the script?
-A weekly close above 6,600 signifies that the reaccumulation range low has been reclaimed as support, ending the downside deviation bargain buying period and solidifying Bitcoin's return into the range.
What does the script suggest about the timing of Bitcoin's potential breakout?
-The script suggests that historically, Bitcoin tends to breakout 150 to 160 days after the halving, indicating that the breakout is a month away based on the current timeline.
What is the role of the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) in the script's analysis?
-The 21-week EMA is considered a bull market EMA, and deviations below it in a bull market represent bargain buying opportunities, with the script noting that reclaiming this EMA is part of the process for a potential breakout.
How does the script view the current state of Bitcoin in relation to the parabolic phase of its cycle?
-The script views Bitcoin as not quite ready for the parabolic phase but setting the stage for it by solidifying the range low as support and preparing for a future breakout.
Outlines
đ Bitcoin's Downtrend Channel and Recovery Analysis
The first paragraph discusses Bitcoin's current market situation, focusing on a downtrending channel observed on the weekly time frame. It details the recent price deviations and recovery attempts, suggesting that Bitcoin is trying to find support to push above the channel's bottom. The paragraph also examines historical channel rebounds and estimates the time it takes for price to move from the channel bottom to the top, typically one to four weeks. The importance of the channel bottom as a former all-time high resistance turned support is highlighted, with the monthly time frame providing a clearer picture of this support level's strength. The potential for a breakout to new highs is predicated on a weekly candle closing above the channel top, which would signify the end of a series of lower highs and a move towards a more bullish market trend.
đ Preparing for a Breakout: Key Resistance Levels and EMA Analysis
The second paragraph delves into the prerequisites for Bitcoin to achieve a sustainable breakout and new highs. It emphasizes the need for a weekly close above 67,500 to break the reaccumulation range high and discusses the significance of closing above the channel bottom at 58,700 and subsequently above 61,500 to solidify the ascent. The paragraph outlines the importance of establishing a strong base at the bottom of the reaccumulation range and the necessity of breaking the series of lower highs since mid-March. It also touches on the historical tendency for breakouts to occur 150 to 160 days after the 'harvest' or market peak, suggesting a potential breakout is about a month away. The discussion includes the role of the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) as a bullish indicator and the opportunities for bargain buying during deviations below this EMA.
đ Assessing Readiness for a Parabolic Phase in Bitcoin's Cycle
The final paragraph assesses whether Bitcoin is ready for a parabolic phase in its market cycle. It concludes that while Bitcoin is not quite ready, it is setting the stage for a future breakout. The paragraph outlines the steps needed for Bitcoin to solidify its position, including reclaiming the 21-week EMA, breaking the lower highs, and revisiting the reaccumulation range high with a weekly close above 71,500. It also discusses the historical context of breakouts occurring approximately 150 to 160 days post-harvest, indicating a potential breakout in late September. The paragraph wraps up by noting that Bitcoin is nearing the end of the post-harvest reaccumulation phase and is aligning more closely with traditional market cycles.
Mindmap
Keywords
đĄBitcoin
đĄParabolic phase
đĄMarket cycle
đĄDowntrending channel
đĄSupport and resistance
đĄEMA (Exponential Moving Average)
đĄReaccumulation range
đĄWeekly candle close
đĄBreakout
đĄHistorical price tendencies
đĄBull market
Highlights
Bitcoin is forming a downtrending channel on a weekly time frame.
Price has been deviating below the channel for the past four weeks, seeking support for an uptrend.
Previous channel bottom rebounds indicate a pattern of price movement from the channel bottom to the top.
The average time for an uptrend from the channel bottom to the top is two to four weeks.
A potential price target for the uptrend is 67K, with the possibility of exceeding the channel top.
For a sustainable breakout to new highs, a weekly candle close above the channel top is necessary.
The channel bottom represents the old all-time high resistance, now acting as new support.
Monthly time frame shows a strong support at the channel bottom, crucial for Bitcoin's stability.
A breakout from the weekly channel would face the next resistance at 71K.
Historically, sideways price action and downside wicks are common post-harvest events.
A weekly close above 6600 would signal the end of the downside deviation and solidify Bitcoin's return to the range.
A weekly close above 67500 is needed to break the series of lower highs and indicate bullish momentum.
Bitcoin needs to close above the channel bottom at 58700 for a strong weekly ascent.
The 21-week EMA is a key indicator for potential bargain buying opportunities in a bull market.
Deviations below the 21-week EMA have historically represented good buying opportunities.
Bitcoin is not quite ready for a parabolic phase but is setting the stage for a future breakout.
Historical patterns suggest a breakout 150 to 160 days post-harvest, which is about a month away.
Bitcoin's price action needs to appreciate quickly to the top of the channel within the next month for a potential breakout.
The video discusses the importance of reaccumulation and consolidation in preparing for a future parabolic rally.
Transcripts
is Bitcoin finally ready for the
parabolic phase in its Market cycle
let's dive right into it subscribe to
the channel for more videos like this in
the future like this video If you
enjoyed content like this going forward
and let's dive right into it so Bitcoin
is forming this downtrending channel on
the weekly time frame and over the past
3 weeks actually four weeks now we were
deviating below the channel trying to
find a support in order to enable price
expansion above the bottom of this
Channel and we're seeing a fantastic
recovery here and if you look at recent
previous channel bottom rebounds whether
after deviations or not you can see that
it takes price from the channel bottom
to the channel top it can take one two
weeks right if we go back down to the
channel and then back up to it it takes
two weeks as well so here as well one
week two weeks and then maybe four weeks
hold in here in total so a 4 we uptrend
really from the bottom to the top it
takes 2 weeks on average four weeks at
most where most of this was actually
just consolidating at the highs here
again two to three weeks of price action
going up towards the upside and this is
the first week so at soonest next week
we'll be back at
67 K with potential for upside wicking
Beyond
this channel top and for Bitcoin to
really be ready for a breakout to new
highs in a sustainable fashion because
these upside Wicks are unsustainable
price action it is representing extreme
price action so the extremities of price
action where fomo buyers are foming in
here but the sell pressure is just too
strong so for price to really be ready
to break out to much higher levels than
just this channel top at 67
68k it would need to weekly candle close
above here and once we get a weekly
candle close for the first time in the
entire life cycle of this weekly Channel
weekly close Beyond here would be
fantastic it would be bullish it would
mean that we're ending this series of
lower highs which is representing the
channel top but a weekly close Beyond
here wouldn't be sufficient and I'll
tell you about that in just a moment
moment because first of all we have to
understand why this channel bottom is so
important and the fact is that it
represents the old all-time high
resistance which is now acting as a new
all-time high support for the past six
months and on the monthly time frame
this is even better shown because this
was a point of rejection this was a
point of rejection and for the past 6
months we've been holding here really
holding nicely here but of course
producing those downside Wicks as part
of volatile retesting of this old
resistance into new support and that's
phenomenal to see because this is
definitely not only a crucial support
but a very strong one at the same time
and once we break out from that Weekly
Channel you can notice that there will
be another resistance that's going to be
the absolute bus it will be the final
bus that Bitcoin needs to break and
that's
71k this range high resistance of the
overall reaccumulation range that we
tend to see historically Across Time
Around the Haring event and especially
after the harving event we've seen it in
2020 we've seen it in
2016 and we're seeing it now in
2024 we tend to see sideways price
action for multiple months and we tend
to also produce downside deviation
moments via downside wicks for the most
part we've seen that a lot throughout
the cycle but in this reaccumulation
range we've seen downside wicking and
even downside deviations via candle
bodied uh candles here so a weekly close
above 6,600 that's going to register the
fact that this reaccumulation range low
has been reclaimed as support especially
if we are to dip into the bottom of that
reaccumulation range low retest it
successfully and then enable a move
towards the upside that can also be a
possibility but a weekly close above
6,600 that's going to end this downside
deviation bargain buying period and
solidify Bitcoin points return into the
range and for price to Rally towards the
top of this reaccumulation range it will
need to Simply break the channel top
here it will need to break this series
of lower highs that's been persisting
since March mid-march of this year
that's why we need a weekly candle close
above here to give us Credence and
strength that this sells side pressure
at this channel top here at these lower
highs is dissipating and the blls are
regaining control weekly close above
67,500 and we will manage to break to
the reaccumulation Range High of
71,000 and of course before then we need
to Simply weekly close above the channel
bottom which is
58700 which is pretty much really well
positioned for a weekly close like that
at least it needs to close above
61,500 to further solidify this Ascent
across the channel so we need a few key
weekly closes and Bitcoin is really well
positioned for that for me I just like
price to weekly close above 6,600
because that's going to position price
for a consolidation across the range and
across the channel of course but are we
ready for this parabolic phase in the
cycle of course the answer is that we
need to continue solidifying a base at
the bottom of this re accumulation range
low solidifying at a base as a base
retesting it as support solidifying
those weekly closes above 6,600 to
position us for a price move across the
range and also across this Channel and
to do that we need to get these weekly
closes in the books and after doing so
we'd need to break those lower highs of
course as we spoke about and then
revisit these reaccumulation range highs
and that's when we'll need a weekly
close above here 71 A2 K so $71,500
that's what we need to weekly close
above because as you can see here upside
wicking if we zoom in here upside
wicking and upside Wicks into the top of
that re accumulation range even here
maybe short falling a bit short but
weekly closing above this red
reaccumulation Range High of 71,500
would be sufficient to enable a breakout
into a parabolic rally for Bitcoin to
new alltime highs and into price
Discovery the question is however is it
time for that and historically speaking
we tend to break out 150 days after the
harving that is exactly what 2016 is
suggesting because it took 150 days for
Bitcoin to break out from its 2016 post
having reaccumulation range and 2020 for
example well we saw a 160 day breakout
after the harving so 2020 is suggesting
160 days 2016 is suggesting missing 150
days roughly speaking so anything
between
150 160 days is when we should be
breaking out and that
is a month away roughly speaking so we
need to gain ground within this range
and we have a whole month to do that and
if we see price action appreciate very
quickly to the top of this Channel and
we still have a month 20 days until the
historically recurring uh moment for a
breakout from the reaccumulation range
is occurring then maybe we have a time
for another rejection from this channel
bottom it really depends how quickly
will bitcoin's price action go towards
the upside but the really important
thing here is that we're currently in
the process of potentially reclaiming
the 21 we exponential moving average
this is a bull market EMA and the fact
that we lose it sometimes and sometimes
reclaim
well that is simply what happens with
EMAs we oscillate around them below them
above them whenever we deviate below
them in Bull markets those tend to
represent fantastic bargain buying
opportunities and we can see that not
only from from of course this period in
the market but also this period where we
deviated below that 21 we EMA that bull
market EMA we downside Wicked below it
here briefly downside Wicked below it
briefly here as well and of course we
were here in a bare market so downside
deviations over the ball Trend below the
28 21 we EMA those are fantastic bargain
buying opportunities and that simply is
the case even in this 2021 cycle where
we deviated below the green 21 we moving
average and that was a fantastic bargain
buying opportunity and also here as well
I understand that 500 days after the
Haring is when we tend to lose this 21
we moving average for a long time to
enter a bare market so that's a thing to
mention that once we're 500 days after
Hing and lose the green moving average
the 21 we EMA that is dangerous
territory because that's probably going
to be entering a bar Trend and we're
nowhere close to 500 days after the
Haring we are only
13330 days after the harving so we still
have a tremendous amount of time because
we haven't even entered the post Haring
parabolic upside phase yet we're still
finishing up the post Haring
reaccumulation phase and we still have a
month for that to continue for that
consolidation to continue so there is
still time before we break out late
September is when this breakout is
scheduled according to historical price
Tendencies where Bitcoin tends to break
out 160 days after the Haring or 15 50
days or so after the Haring so those are
really things to watch out going forward
is Bitcoin ready for a parabolic upside
in its cycle right now no it's not quite
ready but it's really Paving the way
setting the right things in action and
in motion to really prepare itself for
that breakout in the future it just
needs to solidify this range low as
support it will do that in the next few
days it will need to break these lower
highs in the future and depending on
when that happens we'll know whether we
have one last rejection left in the tank
for Bitcoin and then of course it needs
to revisit the reaccumulation Range High
and weekly close above
715,000 for Bitcoin it has a few hurdles
still to jump through but we're now
getting in the clear finishing up this
bargain buying downside deviation Zone
and getting in the clear to
resynchronizing with this range and also
getting very close to resynchronizing
with traditional Haring Cycles because
we know that we were slightly
accelerating in the cycle and this
consolidation period has reduced that
rate of acceleration by a considerable
amount I talk about that in this video
in the previous video so check it out
but in any case that's about it for
today's video subscribe to the channel
for more videos like this in the future
like this video if you enjoy content
like this going forward I'm re cap and
I'll speak to you in the next one speak
to in
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