Stocks for the week: August 4th Week | 2024 | Vijay Thakkar

Vijay Thakkar

17 Aug 202416:37

Summary

TLDRThe video script by Vijay Thakkar discusses market trends and sectors, focusing on a potential investment in an IT sector stock, Tech Mahindra. He outlines technical and fundamental reasons for the investment, including the stock's performance, market cap, and promoter holdings. Thakkar also speculates on the impact of US market interest rates on IT stocks and shares his personal views and calculations on the stock's potential for a breakout, emphasizing the importance of viewer's own analysis before investing.

Takeaways

📈 The speaker, Vijay Thakur, discusses the market trends and sectors, indicating a positive movement in the market last week due to a rally in the US market.
📊 The Nifty index and Bank Nifty are analyzed, with the speaker noting that Bank Nifty seems to be lagging slightly behind Nifty on a monthly basis.
📉 The speaker mentions a major resistance level at 243504.686, which is crucial for the market's short-term direction.
📚 The importance of watching the overall market high level is emphasized, as it could indicate the market's next move.
📊 The speaker provides a technical analysis of the market, suggesting that if the market doesn't open well and goes down, it might cross a bad phase.
🚗 The auto sector is highlighted as having performed well, with a significant breakout from its 2017 levels, trading around 27000, showing a 126% return post-breakout.
💻 The IT sector is discussed as having made a new high in 2022 and is currently attempting to break its all-time high, with the speaker considering investing in an IT stock.
💹 The speaker shares a personal investment idea based on the US market's interest rates, suggesting that if rates cut, IT stocks could rally.
📈 The potential for a 70-80% gain in the next 1.5 years is mentioned if the investment thesis is correct, but also acknowledges the risk of a 10-12% loss.
📉 The speaker advises that if the stock goes weak below 4700, it might be time to withdraw the investment.
📝 The speaker concludes by emphasizing that the shared information is personal view and encourages viewers to do their analysis before investing.

Q & A

What is the main topic discussed in the video by Vijay Thakur?
-The main topic discussed in the video is the analysis of the stock market, sectors, and a particular stock that the speaker considers for his next investment.
What was the market trend observed in the last week according to the video?
-The market had a sideways movement with a positive bias in the last week, influenced by the US market rally, which led to a gap-up opening and a good close on Friday.
What is the significance of the gap-up opening mentioned in the video?
-The gap-up opening is significant as it indicates strong buying interest, which was influenced by a good rally in the US market.
Which sectors performed well and which did not, as discussed in the video?
-IT, Realty, Auto Sector, and Services Sector performed well, while PSU Banks, Media, and CPSI Indices were among the sectors that did not perform well.
What is the technical and fundamental reasoning behind the speaker's investment choice in the IT sector stock?
-The speaker's technical reasoning includes the stock's all-time high level, trend line breaks, and recent range attempts. Fundamentally, the company has a good market cap, promoter holding, and consistent profit growth.
What is the potential upside and risk involved in the IT sector stock mentioned by the speaker?
-The potential upside is significant, with the stock possibly reaching up to 70% or more gains in the next 1.5 years. The risk involves a 10-12% loss if the investment thesis is incorrect.
What is the speaker's view on the US market's interest rates and its potential impact on IT stocks?
-The speaker expects a cut in interest rates in the September-October months, which could lead to a rally in IT stocks, both in the US and potentially in India.
What is the speaker's strategy if the stock breaks its all-time high?
-If the stock breaks its all-time high, the speaker plans to pyramid, or increase his investment, as the stock would become even stronger technically.
What disclaimer does the speaker provide regarding his personal views and investment decisions?
-The speaker clarifies that his views are personal, and while he shares his analysis and reasoning, he may be wrong. He advises viewers to do their own analysis before making any investment decisions.
What additional service does the speaker offer for those interested in learning more about investments and trading?
-The speaker offers a one-year program where he discusses various aspects of investments, sectors to focus on, and why certain sectors like Auto might not be the focus at the moment.
How can viewers stay updated with the speaker's content and potentially subscribe to his program?
-Viewers can like, share, and subscribe to the speaker's channel. The link to subscribe to the program is provided in the video description.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Stock Market Discussion and Investment Strategy

The speaker, Vijay Thakkar, welcomes viewers to a new video discussing the stock market sectors and shares his insights on a potential investment in a specific stock. He plans to explain his technical and fundamental reasons for investing in this stock, which he considers for his next investment. The summary of the market's performance last week is given, highlighting the gap-up opening influenced by the US market rally and the subsequent good closing on Friday. The speaker emphasizes the importance of checking indices like Nifty and Bank Nifty and mentions the market's attempt to break the range, which failed but ended positively on Friday. He also discusses the importance of the all-time high level and provides a detailed analysis of the market's technical aspects, including trend lines and resistance levels.

05:02

📊 Sector Performance Review and Stock Selection

This paragraph focuses on the performance of various sectors in the stock market over the last week, identifying which sectors performed well and which did not. The speaker mentions that IT, Realty, Services, Auto, and Banking sectors had a good performance, while PSU Bank, Media, and CPSE indices struggled. He also revisits a previous video where he discussed the potential of the Auto sector and provides a chart analysis of the sector's performance since 2017, indicating a significant breakout. The speaker then selects a stock from the IT sector, Tech Mahindra, for detailed discussion, highlighting its performance and potential based on technical analysis and market trends.

10:03

💹 Technical Analysis and Investment Potential of a Tech Stock

The speaker provides an in-depth technical analysis of a Tech stock, discussing its recent performance and potential for a breakout. He mentions the stock's recent formation of a 'jo lom' (a technical pattern) around the 4200 level and its attempt to break the range between 4295 and 5260. The speaker calculates the stock's potential upside if it breaks the resistance level of 5270, suggesting a possible target of around 9000. He also considers the company's fundamentals, such as market cap, promoter holding, and financial performance, to justify his investment thesis. The speaker shares his personal view on the investment opportunity and the potential impact of US market interest rates on the IT sector.

15:04

🚀 Personal Investment Insight and Channel Update

In the final paragraph, the speaker shares his personal investment decision related to the discussed stock, stating that he may invest in it based on its potential to break out and the overall positive outlook for the IT sector. He also mentions the possibility of pyramiding his investment if the stock breaks its all-time high. The speaker provides a disclaimer that his views are personal and should not be taken as advice, urging viewers to do their analysis before investing. He promotes his one-year program for more in-depth knowledge on investment strategies and sector focus. The speaker concludes by encouraging viewers to like, share, and subscribe to his channel, highlighting the channel's growth and approaching milestone of 300,000 subscribers.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Investment

Investment refers to the allocation of funds with the expectation of generating income or profit. In the video's context, the speaker discusses his next investment in a particular stock, highlighting the technical and fundamental reasons for his choice. For example, the speaker mentions 'my next investment' and explains his 'technical reasoning' and 'fundamental reasoning' for investing in the stock.

💡Stock Market

The stock market is a platform where shares of publicly traded companies are issued and traded. The script discusses the performance of the market, mentioning a 'sideways to positive move' and the influence of the US market on the local market's 'gap up.' The speaker also refers to market sectors and their performance, indicating the stock market's central role in the video's theme.

💡Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is the study of historical market data, primarily price and volume, to predict future market trends. The speaker in the video uses technical analysis to justify his investment decision, mentioning 'technical reasoning' and discussing 'trend lines' and 'support and resistance levels' in the context of stock charts.

💡Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis involves evaluating a company's financial health and performance to determine its underlying value. The script refers to 'fundamental reasoning' and discusses the company's 'market cap,' 'price to earnings ratio,' and 'promoter holding,' which are all part of fundamental analysis to assess the investment potential of the stock.

💡Sector Performance

Sector performance refers to the collective performance of companies within a specific industry or market segment. The video script mentions the performance of various sectors such as 'IT,' 'reality,' 'auto sector,' and 'connection,' indicating which sectors did well or poorly in the previous week, thus providing insight into market trends.

💡Breakout

A breakout in stock trading occurs when the price of a stock moves sharply above its previous price range. The speaker discusses a potential 'breakout' for a stock, indicating a possible upward movement if certain 'support levels' are breached, which is a key concept in the video's discussion of stock selection and market analysis.

💡Support and Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels are price points in a stock's price movement that tend to have a higher concentration of buying or selling interest. The script refers to these levels, mentioning 'major resistance' and 'support levels,' which are crucial for understanding the stock's potential direction and the speaker's investment strategy.

💡Promoter Holding

Promoter holding refers to the percentage of a company's shares owned by its promoters or founding members. In the script, the speaker mentions 'promoter holding' as part of the fundamental analysis, indicating a significant factor in assessing the company's stability and growth prospects.

💡Sales Growth

Sales growth is the rate at which a company's sales increase over a specific period. The video script discusses the company's 'sales growth' over the past three years, using it as an indicator of the company's performance and potential for future growth.

💡Interest Rates

Interest rates are the percentage at which interest is paid by borrowers and paid to depositors. The speaker in the video speculates on the potential decrease in US market interest rates and its impact on IT stocks, showing how macroeconomic factors can influence investment decisions in the stock market.

💡Risk Management

Risk management involves the identification, evaluation, and prioritization of risks followed by coordinated efforts to minimize, monitor, and control the probability or impact of unfortunate events. The script mentions the speaker's personal view on risk, stating that if the investment goes wrong, there could be a '10 to 12% loss,' but if right, a '70 to 80% gain' is possible, illustrating the importance of risk assessment in investment decisions.

Highlights

Introduction to a new stock for the week with a detailed explanation of the investment rationale.

Market discussion about the last week's sidewise movement to positive due to US market rallies.

Technical analysis of Nifty and Bank Nifty charts, including monthly and weekly timeframes.

Discussion on the market's reaction to Independence Day and the overall normal market behavior.

Analysis of the gap-up opening and closing of the market on Friday, influenced by the US market.

Prediction of a potential good opening for the market on Monday based on the previous week's performance.

Identification of major resistance levels at 243504 and 686, and the all-time high level for the market.

Comparison of Bank Nifty's chart with Nifty, noting a slightly weak appearance on a monthly timeframe.

Importance of the trendline in Bank Nifty and its potential impact on the uptrend if broken.

Review of the market's performance over the last two weeks, focusing on the range and attempts to break out.

Analysis of the sectors that performed well last week, including IT, Realty, Auto, and Services.

Performance comparison of the Pharma sector on a monthly basis and its position in the top five sectors.

Historical context provided for the Auto sector's potential for good performance based on past trends.

Introduction of an IT sector stock, Tech Mahindra, as a potential investment with a detailed technical and fundamental analysis.

Discussion on the IT sector's performance in 2022 and its recent breakout attempts.

Technical expectations for the selected stock, including potential breakout levels and resistance levels.

Fundamental analysis of the company, including market cap, P/E ratio, promoter holding, and sales growth.

Risk assessment and potential gains or losses based on the investment in the selected stock.

Personal investment thesis based on the US market and interest rates, with potential impacts on the IT sector.

Disclaimer about the personal view of the presenter and advice for viewers to conduct their analysis before investing.

Invitation to join the presenter's one-year program for further insights into investment strategies and sector focus.

Call to action for likes, shares, and subscriptions for the channel, highlighting the approach to 300k subscribers.