The Deciding Factor, Who'll Break First - Offensive Goals Become Clearer - Ukraine Map & News Update

Summary

В видео-скрипте обсуждается текущая военная обстановка на украинско-российском фронте, сосредоточившись на расходах и приобретениях территории, а также на тактиках и возможностях обеих сторон. Рассматриваются случаи использования запрещенных химических веществ, захваты россиянами украинских пленников и обмены пленных. Также затрагивается использование современного военного оборудования, включая танков и бомбардировщиков, а также анализируется геополитическая ситуация и возможные последствия действий обеих сторон.

Takeaways

• 📊 В настоящее время происходит рассмотрение множества ударов, использования различных видов техники и падения самолетов, а также анализ карты в северной, восточной и южной частях для оценки происходящего.
• 🏁 Возникает гонка между Украиной и Россией, связанная с тем, кто сначала будет вынужден распределить свои резервы, чтобы укрепить оборону и остановить продвижение фронта.
• 🚨 В видео от Роба Ли, члены специального подразделения Украины в Нью-Йорке используют к51-средство для управления беспорядками, что вызывает обеспокоенность, так как оно запрещено Конвенцией о химических оружиях.
• 🔍 Существует обсуждение о том, как обстоят дела с обменом пленными, особенно с пограничными охранниками и призывными, которые могут быть обменяны на более опытных бойцов.
• 🎥 Появилось несколько видеозаписей с пленными российскими солдатами, которые сдались украинским силам, что подчеркивает эффективность украинских операций на восточных фронтах.
• 🔥 Украинская армия захватила контроль над некоторыми населенными пунктами и стремится укрепить свои позиции, в то время как российские войска продолжают наступление в других регионах.
• 🚀 Подтверждено уничтожение российской системы 'HIMARS', что является значимым успехом украинских войск и показывает эффективность их действий.
• 🛩️ Есть сообщения о том, что российский генерал-майор Николаич погиб, возможно, в результате катастрофы на Су-35, что подчеркивает риски, связанные с военными действиями.
• 🤔 Существует спекуляции о том, что британский танк 'Чалленджер 2' был использован на фронте в Курской области, что может указывать на более широкую поддержку со стороны Запада.
• 💥 Появилось видео происшествия с российским бомбардировщиком Ту-22М, который потерпел катастрофу из-за технической неисправности, что подчеркивает риски, связанные с использованием старых самолетов.
• 📉 По мере того как операции на фронте замедляются, украинские войска осознают, что их успех начинает уходить, и им необходимо укрепиться на занятом пространстве, особенно перед зимой, когда маневренность снижается.

Q & A

Какой инициативу в Севере Украины держит в настоящее время Украина?

В Севере Украины инициативу держит Украина, пытаясь удержать преимущество и заставить Россию переместить войска из восточных или южных регионов для укрепления обороны и остановить движение фронта.

Что означает термин 'переdeployment forces' в контексте конфликта?

Переdeployment forces означает процесс перемещения войск или подразделений с одного фронта на другой для укрепления обороны или поддержания инициативы в определенном направлении.

Какие факторы могут привести к переdeployment российских войск?

Россия может быть вынуждена переdeploy войск из-за удержания инициативы Украиной на севере, что потребует усиления обороны в этом регионе, или из-за необходимости поддержания натиска на восточных и южных фронтах.

Какое оборудование было захвачено в ходе операции на востоке Украины?

В ходе операции на востоке Украины были захвачены российские ПС (пленные солдат), в том числе консипты и границные охранники, а также высокотехнологичные танки, такие как Challenger 2.

Что может обозначать использование к51-справок в боевых действиях?

К51-справки, или дымовые гранаты, могут быть использованы для контроля беспорядков, но их использование против людей является нарушением химической конвенции, несмотря на то, что они содержат химически активные вещества, такие как хлоропикрин.

Какие последствия могут быть для России после захвата пункта поддержки газопровода?

Захват пункта поддержки газопровода может дать Украине важную карту для переговоров с европейскими альянсами о предоставлении новых военного оборудования и экономической помощи, так как Россия потеряет значительную часть своих доходов от экспорта газа.

Какие российские войска могут быть переdeployed из Донецкой области?

Возможно, что будут переdeployed небольшие группы из нерегулярных подразделений, такие как спецназ или дроны, которые могут быть перемещены из Донецкой области на украинский фронт.

Какие изменения произошли на южном фронте в районе поов?

На южном фронте в районе поов российские войска продолжают наступление и тактический окружной обхват украинских войск к юго-востоку от поов, при этом не существует отчетов о том, что российское командование пере调动 большие и лучше подготовленные подразделения из Донецкой области на этот фронт.

Какие возможные цели украинской операции на севере России?

Цели украинской операции на севере России могут быть ограниченными и включать в себя захват стратегических объектов, таких как газодуковой пункт или город Суджа, для улучшения позиций в переговорах и получения новых возможностей для дальнейших операций.

Какие последствия может иметь операция Украиной на севере России для других регионов Украины?

Операция на севере может привести к переdeployment российских войск из других регионов, усиливая натиск на восток Украины и замедляя украинские успехи в Донецкой области, где Россия продолжает ведение войны за изношение.

Outlines

00:00

🔍 Анализ военного положения и расследование использования химических веществ

В первом параграфе обсуждается текущее военное положение, сосредоточившись на рассмотрении ударов, захваченных транспортных средств и падения самолетов. Также авторы анализируют карты событий на севере, востоке и юге, предоставляя свою оценку происходящего. Особое внимание уделяется расследованию использования химических веществ в ходе конфликта, включая обсуждение роли PWS (полицейских войсковых частей) и их значимости в обменах военнопленными.

05:02

📊 Разбор обмена военнопленными и анализ потерь

Второй параграф посвящён обсуждению обмена военнопленными, включая вопрос о том, насколько ценными являются различные категории военнослужащих при таких обменах. Также рассматривается видеоматериал о захвате российских военнослужащих и их содержании в складских помещениях, а также обсуждается потеря системы 'Хигас' в Сумах и уничтожение Challenger 2, предположительно британского производства.

10:03

🚀 Изучение потерь техники и стратегических целей украинских действий

Третий параграф анализирует потерю техники, включая российский бомбардировщик Tu22M и британский танк Challenger 2, а также обсуждается стратегический выбор украинских войск на севере и востоке Украины. Авторы обсуждают, насколько войска Украины могут удерживать инициативу на севере и заставить российские войска пересмотреть свои расстановку сил на востоке и юге.

15:03

🌍 Геополитический анализ и оценка боевых действий

В четвёртом параграфе авторы освещают геополитические аспекты конфликта, включая российские боевые действия в Донецкой области и украинские успехи на севере. Обсуждается также вопрос о том, будут ли российские войска продолжать наступление на востоке, несмотря на украинские действия на севере, и наоборот, может ли Украина удерживать свои позиции, заставив российские силы пересмотреть свои стратегические планы.

20:04

🛣️ Обзор успехов украинских войск и их дальнейших стратегических целей

Пятый параграф фокусируется на успехах украинских войск на севере, включая захват территорий и стремление к созданию буферной зоны вокруг города Суджа. Также обсуждается экономическая и стратегическая значимость захваченных объектов, а также возможные дальнейшие шаги украинских войск и их влияние на общую ситуацию на фронте.

25:05

⏳ Прогноз развития событий и оценка влияния на боевые действия в других регионах

В шестом параграфе авторы предоставляют прогноз по дальнейшим развитию событий на военном фронте, включая возможные реакции России и Украины на текущую военную ситуацию. Также обсуждается, насколько действия на севере могут влиять на боевые действия в других регионах, в частности на востоке и юге Украины.

Keywords

💡Химическое оружие

Химическое оружие - это любое оружие, использующее химическую энергию для нанесения ущерба. В контексте видео это связано с обсуждением использования К51 - сражения химических гранат, которые, как утверждается, нарушают Конвенцию о химических оружиях, несмотря на то, что содержат химически активные вещества для контроля беспорядков.

💡Пленные войска

Пленные войска - это солдаты, которые были взяты в плен во время войны. В видео говорится о том, что Украина захватила много российских пленников, что может быть использовано для обмена, и обсуждается, насколько они ценны для обеих сторон конфликта.

💡Переговоры обмена

Переговоры обмена - это процесс, при котором стороны конфликта соглашаются взаимно освободить своих пленников. В видео упоминается, что обмен пленными может быть сложным из-за разницы в ценности между консценсами и добровольцами.

💡СУ-35

СУ-35 - это российский многоцелевое истребителе четвертого поколения. В видео упоминается смерть генерала Николича, который, по предположению, происходила на борту СУ-35, что подчеркивает серьезность потери для России.

💡Чанлер 2

Чанлер 2 - это британский основной танк, который упоминается в видео как один из видов техники, возможно используемой Украиной. Обсуждается, была ли эта техника введена в бой и насколько это показывает Украинское приверженность операции на фронте.

💡ТУ-22М

ТУ-22М - это советский дальний бомбардировщик, который упоминается в видео в связи с инцидентом технической неисправности, при которой самолет потерпел крушение. Это подчеркивает риски, связанные с использованием старой техники в боевых условиях.

💡Геополитические цели

Геополитические цели - это стратегические интересы государства, которые могут включать в себя экономические, военные или политические преимущества. В видео говорится о том, что Украина может использовать свои успехи на фронте для улучшения своих позиций в переговорах с европейскими союзниками.

💡Логистические возможности

Логистические возможности - это способность армии поддерживать свои действия на фронте, включая передовую базу и логистику. В видео упоминается, что Украина стремится создать важную логистическую точку в Суже для поддержания своего наступления.

💡Борьба за привилегированные позиции

Борьба за привилегированные позиции - это конфликтная ситуация, когда стороны стремятся занять стратегически важные высоты или позиции. В видео говорится о том, что Украина и Россия борются за контроль над высокими землями к северу от Сужи.

💡Аттракционная война

Аттракционная война - это тактика, при которой одна сторона привлекает вражеские силы к определенному району, чтобы ослабить их на другом фронте. В видео предполагается, что Украина может использовать наступление на российскую территорию для привлечения российских войск от других районов.

Highlights

Analysis of the ongoing race between Ukraine and Russia for strategic advantage in different frontlines.

Concerns raised over the use of K51 riot control grenades, which may violate the Chemical Weapons Convention.

Discussion on the potential implications of the use of chemical weapons by both Russia and Ukraine in the conflict.

Reports of a surge in the capture of Russian prisoners of war (POWs) and their potential use in swaps.

Footage analysis of Russian soldiers being taken prisoner and the uncertainty surrounding the exact location and circumstances.

Questioning the exchange rate for troops and the value of conscripts versus more experienced soldiers.

Footage of a highas system being struck and the subsequent explosion, indicating successful Ukrainian counter-battery fire.

Reports of a Russian Tu22M supersonic bomber aircraft crashing due to a technical malfunction.

Analysis of the potential strategic objectives behind Ukraine's incursion into Russian territory.

Discussion on the importance of the Sudas gas meeting station and its potential role in future negotiations.

Assessment of the Ukrainian Army's control over new territories and the challenges of maintaining momentum.

Reports of the Russian military maintaining a high offensive tempo in Donetsk Oblast despite Ukrainian pressure.

Analysis of the potential redeployment of Russian forces from unspecified areas to counter the Ukrainian incursion.

Speculation on the commitment of Ukraine to the Kherson offensive and the strategic use of high-tech assets.

Discussion on the potential impact of the conflict on other areas within Ukraine, particularly the Donbass region.

Predictions on the future of the conflict, including the potential for a stalemate and the importance of logistics and entrenchment.

Conclusion on the ongoing nature of the conflict and the commitment to continue reporting on developments.

Transcripts

getto Legends I hope that you're having

a fantastic day a fantastic friday

leading into an even better weekend now

today as always we do have a lot to

speak about we're going to look at a

number of strikes a number of vehicles

being used and planes coming down as

well of course we'll look at the maps in

the north the East and the South and

give our assessment of what is happening

there and have a look at where things

are moving but I think that there is a

race Happening Here of course Ukraine

has the initiative in the North in K

Russia has the initiative in the

direction of poov I think the race that

we're seeing occur is who has to deploy

reserves from one of these Frontline

elements first can Ukraine hold the

initiative in the north and force Russia

to move troops away from areas in the

East or the South to bolster the

defenses there to stop then that front

line moving or can Russia continue

pushing in areas the East and in the

South and then Force Ukraine to pull

troops away from KK to redeploy

defensive works there and I think that

is the race the race to see who can

force the other side to redeploy their

forces but we'll talk about more of that

in a second and we'll talk about a lot

of PWS being taken and the advantage of

having PWS in swaps as well so I was

just scrolling Twitter as I do and this

video came up shared from Mr Rob Lee

here a video of members of the Ukraine's

SSO eth regiment fighting in New York

now this is the opening scene one second

in I see this and this is something very

concerning so this was the first opening

scene this to my eye is a

k51 riot control grenade something we

have seen used throughout this war but

is of course against chemical weapon

convention now does it matter that it's

chloropicrin is the active ingredient

riot control or not not to the treaty

and I've spoken at length about this we

see both Russia and Ukraine dropping

these of this top one Russia this bottom

one Ukraine and where Russia and Ukraine

have signed and ratified the chemical

weapons convention and these are clearly

banned under that and to even get a

better idea of that I spoke with a

combat engineer of course with cbrn

chemical biological radiological

training as well as an international

criminal lawyer just to see if I was

correct or not and to clear up some

things about the use of drones

surrendering chemical weapons and all of

this if you want to watch that I will

link all of this then below but let's

bring this up to have a look here and

then we see a number of Articles over

the past months too of Ukraine then

really against Russia's use of these and

of course one being used somewhere does

not mean it's right somewhere else so

Russia uses uh chemical ammo against

Ukrainian Defenders a k51 air assault

grenade this under the chemical weapons

convention and Geneva protocol despite

prohibition the Russians have used these

grenades many times photo above is a k51

canister we can see the bottom then here

I'll bring up a better photograph of it

here Ukraine's general staff report

surge in Russian's use of chemical

weapons in Conflict you're asking me

happy to be incorrect happy to be

correct corrected and I'll correct

myself looking like the same thing to me

I probably wouldn't put that in my

opening scene of my video so before we

look at the other strikes challenges

High Mars I also then want to talk about

these PS Now what we have seen

throughout Ukraine's incursion the

offensive actions into KK is a lot of

Russian PS being taken and a lot of

these are border guards conscripts and

then surrendering and Ukraine's getting

a lot of people to then swap back so

let's have a look at some of the footage

that has came out over then the past say

12 to 16 hours so we see a lot of the

these prisoners held then in this like

storage shed here and it's around 100 by

the footage we can see some Drone

footage here as we zoom out the amount

of these guys then on the ground these

Russian soldiers here let's zoom out

further so guys being taken then

prisoner and back inside the storage

shed now one thing which is being asked

about this footage is is this footage

from Ukraine has rolled into this area

and then taken 100 guys 100 guys have

surrendered at that point or is this a

collection point a rendevu point for PS

from other areas maybe even over past

days now that isn't clear from the

footage one way or the other was this

all in one hit the 100 guys in one hit

at surrended or is it a collection point

they RV here and then taken back across

to Ukraine as well so again not 100%

sure on this but I'll show you and show

you where both sides are talking about

this too something else being questioned

I've been questioning this a lot and I

will just say I don't know is what is

the exchange rate for troops is it one

conscript for one volunteer highly

motivated troop because a lot of the

time when we see PW exchanges we don't

see equal numbers we'll see 30 for 50 or

we see WNBA for the Lord of War but with

soldiers we do see a difference in that

an officer or a pilot is going to be

significantly different to a conscript

too so it will be interesting to see and

we'll probably get a better idea of this

down the line too but conscripts they

hold a lot of value too because of of

course the conscript has not volunteered

to be there their families know that

their son hasn't volunteered to be there

and this can cause a lot of Rift within

a society to when conscripts are being

killed or captured particularly then on

your own territory also so a lot there

for Ukraine to swap back at some point

and they'll be looking to get more

experienced guys back I am sure so we do

have the clearest footage of a highas

system being taken out in Sumi so just

before we watch this I'll show you

exactly where it is this is actually

where it is struck not where it is in

the beginning of the footage but we see

suia blast kers blast suja which is

confirmed to be completely under

Ukrainian control today so then right in

here now let's then watch the footage so

we see it fire off some missiles in the

beginning here this is being tracked by

a Russian drone in the

air once it's fir these Salvo of

missiles we then see it driving back

again if you want to watch this fall

thing go and watch it on my telegram if

you'd

like driving back pulls into then this

area and then we see a Russian i scander

m then strike

this and then we do see the subsequent a

cook off of this no this is not a decoy

so then we say it or if it is a decoy

it's just as expensive as a real one how

good is a decoy till it is just real and

I'm joking anyway so we see this cook

off here then we see another vehicle

then rushing to the

aid and of this Burning vehicle or maybe

straight on pass so very interesting to

see that we have seen very limited

footage of himars being struck of course

a lot of claims as well just randomly I

saw this this isn't the right footage

this one here this is a Ukrainian tank

operating in the Sumi ablast here and

firing and then it is actually struck as

well by said to be a Russian Ice scander

now we can actually tell this is in it

might not be the directly same spot but

you can tell by the tree line the

environment around here this is very

very similar area so we see this is

where the high Mars was struck and if

you compare the two bits of footage

compare the pair no one other than

Australians will get this you can see it

is definitely in the same area so there

is of course a lot of ISR assets as

these drones overhead and having

successful hits on Ukrainian assets

there too but we can see this is me

trying to balance to show if he strikes

on one on the other so people don't you

only show this there has been a pil

killed confirmed by fighter bomber P and

snip Major General nikolich has died now

I believe you can correct me if from

wrong but I believe this is a S35

aircraft back here so if there are any

recent claims of su 35s going down we

can then line this up and go this is

likely what then has occurred but I want

to talk about this Challenger 2 as this

has caused a lot of stir online whether

it is or is not a British made

Challenger 2 operate ating in the k

oblast then inside of Russia now we see

the opening footage here and then we

skip through the footage and we can see

there are some hard Cuts in this going

to different areas and then it is struck

said to be by a Lancet subsequent

Cookoff and destruction of the vehicle

now many will say and this is we see

this in a lot of Russian footage it's

really bloody annoying is like a hard

cut goto a complete area or a massive

zoom out now there is a hard cut in this

but what I will say is if you look at

the light in this image this is like

golden hour either in the morning or in

the afternoon and the lighting is

actually very similar in the beginning

and the end you can see the sun is low

on the horizon and really gold so we

know at least this footage was taken

around the same time and by the tree

lines it is looking like very similar

areas to of course it's still somewhat

unclear by this footage so I'll just

show you here the screenshot of the

beginning of this footage this is where

people pointing at is chal 2 of course

turret very large gun sits well off the

front of a chal 2 but this isn't

completely clear from here we get a

little bit more this is the aftermath of

that strike and you can see where the

targeting system is and the

Capa as well that it is lining up fairly

closely to a chal 2 we have an overlay

of one here and it is looking again

fairly close I don't think anything here

is you know million per that but again

looking fairly close to my eye and we do

have a lot of more mainstream media

talking that there has been the

deployment of British Challenger 2 tanks

in then this incursion so I think it's

likely that it is and this is only the

second time we have actually really seen

Challis being used and the reason I

bring this up and I believe that this is

important isn't the vehicle itself being

taken out being used that that's that's

not the important part of this but we

have confirmation there being used and

we have been hearing for a while now

that the Challenger 2os would be

strictly used for breakthroughs so maybe

we are seeing that maybe we're seeing a

lot more thrown in we we have questioned

how committed to the K offensive is

Ukraine isn't it offensive across get

some areas pull out open somewhere else

we're not sure but seeing Vehicles like

this that we know Ukraine doesn't have

in large numbers they are fairly rare we

don't see them deployed that much could

it be a further commitment of willing to

uh put in assets there as you know

you're going to lose these Assets Now

this is similar to like when we saw the

Abrams popping up around ad Diva if

Ukraine is deploying these limited

high-tech tanks into areas where they

there is a risk of then losing them then

we can say that this is likely a very

high priority Mission uh being conducted

so it may tell us about the commitment

to this you put in your best kit where

you're willing to lose it but where you

can get a lot of gains also so let's

talk about planes now this is a

tu22m supersonic bomber aircraft sort of

like the wish.com of a tu60 I believe at

least by looks but then we do see

footage of one of these said to have

then a technical

malfunction and is on

fire and then comes to the ground in an

impressive Fireball and we have more

footage of this of of course burnt up on

the ground now where did this take place

well this took place way out here in Utz

which is a hell of a long way away from

Ukraine around Mongolia so there's no

weapon system that Ukraine has that

could go this far to strike a bomber

like this so most likely is a mechanical

malfunction I've spoken about fighter

aircraft before bomber aircraft these

are not your Toyota Camry these are more

like a Formula 1 car they can have a lot

of technical malfunctions especially

these older planes now these are very

long in the tooth now being used more

and more to drop bombs now for you know

into their third year of war that they

could see a lot of maintenance issues

mechanical problems popping up like this

now F bomber did say the main thing is

that we are alive confirming the Downing

of this saying that the crew was alive

and interesting part with this is these

ejection seats actually get launched at

the bottom of the plane so you hear

about pilots who say they're an inch

shorter after after ejecting upwards I

wonder if maybe you can get an inch

taller from coming out the bottom but

that is an interesting bit of footage

and we have spoken about with the

increased intensity of the air campaign

will we see an increase in maintenance

issues on these planes that has been

spoken about for a long time so let's

push then up into the North and see

where things are changing of course here

is Ukrainian Center is the capital of ke

the red areas occupied since 22 the

purple since 14 the blue areas new

territory uh taken by Ukraine or

recovered by Ukraine within two weeks so

we come up into the K oblast here this

map is not the best map for this but

just to show you we can see there has

been an increase of Gray Zone and Blue

Zone then today but just to then this

amount so just a smaller amount today

than we have seen in previous days and

this is shown as well if we jump onto

the Noel reports map who's doing uh he's

doing a lot more of the maing of this

area then a deep State you can see so

these are some of the large Slots of

land taken on the 13th the 14th the eth

we can see this is the only change on

the 15th so there is just a much smaller

change compared to previous days we have

been hearing in here that there is

rotation of Ukrainian elements in here

both for fatigue and casualties as well

and this could really slow down

advancements for a few days as well as

now that Russian reinforcements are

starting to arrive and that Russia is

starting to dig in in areas we could see

this slow down particularly from what we

saw at least in those initial days and

last week also so we'll just keep an eye

on what is happening in here too but I

spoke about this redeployment of forces

so let's look at this this is from the

isw Russian forces are maintaining their

relatively High offensive Tempo in dones

oblas demonstrating the Russian military

command continues to prioritize advances

in eastern Ukraine even as Ukraine is

pressuring Russian forces within K obas

the Russian forces are continuing to

pursue a tactical encirclement of

Ukrainian forces southeast of poov so in

poov this is what we spoke about in the

beginning that I believe there's a race

on to see who sort of uh has to give in

first and then pull forces so we see

yesterday was a good map to see this we

can see the amount of ground being taken

out around towards poov over the last

week that the Russian advancement is

still then occurring here we'll look at

the maps of this specific area in a bit

the Ukrainian uh this group forces

spokesman Captain demitro lovi stated on

August 15 that there have also been no

significant changes to the Russian Force

grouping in southern Ukraine and the

Russian forces are not decreasing their

offensive operations in the area the

maps tend to show this Russia has begun

moving certain elements from Ukraine to

respond to the situation in KK oblast

but the types of units that they are

redeploying and where they redeploying

from is a strong indicator the Russian

military command is still prioritizing

ongoing offensive operations in eastern

Ukraine so we have spoken about this

could be the best action in defense is

the best uh defense offense that if

Russia just go Balls to Wall down in the

East that Ukraine may need to pull

troops away from Cur to bolster that and

therefore it's going to be easier to

recover ground than in the East but is

Ukraine doing the same thing that you

find a weak spot in Russia's border you

push through and they may have to red

employe

forces uh San said two US officials

stated the Russian military command has

redeployed multiple Brigade sized

elements of of up oh my God up of at

least a thousand Personnel each from

unspecified areas to the KK oblast two

sources familiar with West intelligence

reportedly stated the Russian military

command is not moving larger and better

trained elements from unspecified areas

of Ukraine to K obas so unspecified

areas this could be is it just somewhere

in the rear is it somewhere on the front

but we are seeing that front continuing

to move isw has not observed reports in

the open source that the Russian

military command is redeploying entire

brigades from Ukraine to K oblast but

has observed reports of elements of

Russian regiments redeploying to that

area the isw continues to assess that

Russian military command is pulling

select elements of Russian irregular

units from dones oblas to address

Ukrainian incursion into K ablast but

will likely be extremely averse to

pulling Russian military units engaged

in combat from Priority sectors in Don

oblas out of concerns about slowing the

tempo of Russian operations in these

areas so regular units you might be

talking SF units you might be talking

drone units that's the two that come to

mind so maybe redeploy some irregular

units here we have seen just because on

a piece of Ukrainian or Russian Drone

footage it has then the Brigade there

from that doesn't mean that entire

Brigade is there it just may mean that

attached drone team has then moved and

we spoke say about 4 days ago about how

that can be part of the information

campaign too to try and show that where

units may or may not be moving from and

I believe there is a bit of force to try

and get Ukrainian forces or Russian

forces to redeploy and make it easier to

have offensive or defensive actions in a

specific area now we have a lot of

surric write up about what is happening

in the north so let's jump back on this

we'll compare the pair we'll compare the

maps we'll have a look at then this

movement here so we can see similar then

directions out on the East here it can

be a bit difficult to see but where

Russia has made ground and that suja has

come under complete control in the last

48 hours Ukraine Army were able to drive

Russian army out of the eastern part of

suja and take control of the suburbs of

these the Ukrainian presence in the

locality of mikova uh could also be

confirmed reports in the last days in

addition Ukrainian forces recaptured

these and several kilometers to the

south on the other hand Russian forces

counterattacked and regained control of

these localities down in this region in

here too so areas that were out and in

control again very liquid around here

Ukraine still gaining some ground after

a week of the Ukrainian offensive on

Russian territory the Ukraine Army has

taken control or established presence in

58 localities including the town of suja

reaching 680 km of Russian so depending

where you listen to Ukraine will say

around more of a 100 localities and a

bit around 1,000 square km too again can

be very difficult to know exactly what

is happening here due to Pres and

control being different things the

Ukrainian offensive has had an initial

success in penetrating poorly defended

sector of the border with shortage of

detection and electronic warfare means

as well as few military personnel

supported by American European

intelligence the Ukrainian Armed Forces

launched a series of deep attacks on

Russian saw with armored troops and

small reconnaissance groups that cause

Panic amongst Russian troops many of

whom were recruits with little combat

experience and could be seen in the

videos on the first days what is the

purpose of such

operation now far from the stupid

statements of those who claim Ukraine's

want to get to Moscow we are dealing

with an operation that has very limited

objectives at least in the long term

again I don't believe the actual

objectives here are clear could it have

been to try and have some Blitz Craig

effort to curse that is what I was told

at one point could it been the nuclear

power plant I have never really believed

that because of the Fallout PR wise

around the world of trying to then

occupy a power plant like Russia does

down in zap oblast 2 we don't really

know the goals could it just be to draw

troops away could it be to show the West

that hey we can make background you need

to give us more equipment and show

Regular Russians and in the Kremlin hey

we will attack back in also you know

these objectives are strategic and not

Territorial and revolve around a small

area of the Russian Ukraine Russian

border we're talking about the sudas gas

meeting station and the town of the same

time sorry left out one thing there as

well people talking about a swap back of

kilometer for kilometer territory if

there is negot iations in alone the

first of these is economic importance at

the Eurasian level and runs through the

this pipeline one of Russia's main

natural gas export pipelines brings in

about $6 billion a year for Russia the

capture of the station won't pose an e

economic problem for Russia which could

cut off the gas supplies to Europe but

would have a negative impact on these

states that have not reduced their

dependence on Moscow this would allow ke

to have an important trump card in

future negotiations with its European

allies for the delivery of new military

material and economic aid which could be

intensified after this military success

so you know we can turn this back on we

can get it going back through but we

need more stuff puts pressure on

countries which may be a little bit iffy

maybe Slovakia Hungary countries like

this to further Ukrainian Aid the second

strategic area of the town is suja along

the suburbs as it is the first large

town to be taken by Ukrainian troops and

would mean the creation of a very

important logistical point for Ukraine

in the continuation of this offensive

thus compensate for the greater

logistical capacity of the Russian

troops thanks to the presence of such

cities as these larger ones and of

course KK uh for this reason what is

happening now seems to be the creation

of a buffer zone around suja where the

Ukrainian Army is expected to entrench

itself in the city and the highlands

near the border in contrast the Russians

west of suja uh meanwhile fighting on

the Northern Highlands will continue the

following days deciding whether the

operation continues northwards or stalls

so looking at where these major other

areas are and could Su work as a

logistical Hub so Els come into suja and

then are distributed outwards of here

this is what Russia's trying to do down

in poov very similar but different front

so of course IND suja the entrenching

systems of Russia and where The High

Ground is where Ukraine will try and

gain that and what is being questioned

is Will Russia entrench outside of this

and for I guess forgo some land but then

Force Ukraine to occupy a large area and

a large front line drawing troops away

long term will Ukraine continue on be

able to have those Logistics and

rotation of elements these are unknown

yet or will Russia try and recapture all

of this potentially with a lot of forces

in here and may need to draw forces from

other areas of the front to do this the

Ukrainian Army is aware that the

momentum of its success is beginning to

run out after the arrival of significant

quantities of Russian weapons and

experienced troops to the Frontline area

which have begun to slow down the

advance in some areas once the front

line stabilizes which is still several

days away the Russian Armed Forces will

begin to intensify bombardment of

Ukrainian troops in the era which will

suffer significant losses if they do not

dig in K's objective will then to be H

out until winter arrives and wait for

the outcome of the US elections in

November when a negotiation process

could begin and where maintaining a

strip of Russian territory under its

control could benefit in a hypothetical

agreement that would end the war Ukraine

need to dig in if they want to hold

these areas particularly going into

winter where maneuver Warfare is limited

and that Russia will be dropping things

like those Fabs and that artillery here

as well on the other hand Ukrainian

operation has not managed to have an

impact on other areas inside Ukraine in

fact the risky move of using experienced

troops that were defending the Eastern

Front is taking its toll on the forces

defending the positions in the dbass

where Russian forces are making

consecutive uh so consecutive advances

on a daily basis in reality it has not

been necessary to convert many resour

resources to the kurk front from there

but these were sent from the rear guard

and from bellarus we did see elements

cross from bellus as well and this is

similar to what like the isw was saying

in short curs cooperations will not

change the general trend of the war the

initial Ukrainian Victory will be slowed

reversed while the Russian army continue

its War of Attrition in Ukraine and on

its way to taking over the whole dbass

the war sadly continues so how how much

effect has this had on other areas so

far we haven't seen much of that effect

if not actually an acceleration of other

areas that where Russia are pushing very

hard to particularly poov a divka as isw

we spoke about and as I'm about to show

you now so let's come down into ABD now

we don't see any change on this map of

red what we do say see sorry is a change

of Gray Zone indicating there some has

been maybe some advancement down to the

South out from zeleni here of course

this is getting closer and closer to

then poov now we have in a Surak M map

here too situation paulov Russian army

took control of the localities of these

um South raway in addition some advances

were made by Russian forces at the

Southeastern outskirts of hodka where

clashes with Ukrainian Army are taking

place so out in the North in honka and

down in the South here too so this is

showing it's pushing a little bit

further down to the South but similar to

where we saw then the gray Zone shift

here so we may see some red movement on

this map maybe tomorrow we then have a

Noel reports map here as well so let's

Zoom down now this is today of his and

what he is showing is this Russian

advancement more in line with what

suriak is showing of this mava shown in

Gray Zone here then coming into Red Zone

by his map so we can say there probably

been most likely some advancement along

this sector here continuing that grind

force of attritional warfare here and

like I've said multiple times in this

video will there become a point where

there's a Tipping Point that Ukraine

have to send forces back to here or that

Russia has to send forces up to here to

stabilize now come into then New York

front in here now we don't have any uh

other Surak Map update today but then we

can see from the Noel reports map that

he showing further control out in this

area more control than the Deep state is

showing we did see yesterday that Russia

had been expanding its control in this

particular sector but let's look at

where this map has actually shown some

changes today so we come down we just

see in crer hika that more of crer hika

is coming under Rush control after this

very slow grind through here we watched

on this channel the Breakin from the

initial Breakin through to the Grind

Street by Street they back and forward

in here but it has been having some

success over the past days in here I

thought it would show more than that we

can see where it has had some initial

success and getting sliver by sliver in

then this front up to then today now

zoom out a little bit and the only other

change we see is up then on this pasani

front here we do see a Russian

advancement towards of course this

oscill river that runs through here

which we believe Russia's trying to get

to this as a natural barrier to split

the North and the South now this is an

area which has been coming under russan

control over the past few days and weeks

if we push forward we can see an

advancement through then better

stove wait need to get back there we go

so we do see this advancement up through

better stove

here and then further pushing up to then

today near Panic so is initiative and

taking ground here too so where the

future of the all this holds I don't

know but what I do know is that we will

be here reporting on what then occurs

anyway Legends I hope that you have a

fantastic day and I'll speak to you

tomorrow thank you bye-bye