IMPORTANT: Final *BEAR TRAP* Before Bitcoin Runs Too $100k Plus! Market In Good Health! BIG DATA INC

Summary

In this cryptocurrency market update, the host discusses the volatile week in the market, attributing it to the unwinding of the Japanese Yen carry trade. Despite the turbulence, the economy and markets are believed to be in good health, with the recent dip seen as a potential 'bull trap' setting the stage for a significant bullish move. The video delves into technical analysis, suggesting Bitcoin could reach $100,000, and touches on macroeconomic factors, including the Federal Reserve's policies and their impact on global liquidity, which are expected to favor risk-on assets like crypto.

Takeaways

• 😀 The cryptocurrency market has experienced a volatile week, with the most significant fluctuations since 2020, attributed to the unwinding of the Japanese Yen carry trade.
• 📊 Despite the volatility, the speaker believes the market and economy are in good health and that the downturn was a necessary step back to move forward more significantly.
• 📈 The video discusses the possibility of a 'bull trap' in the market, suggesting that the recent dip might be a precursor to a significant upward movement.
• 💰 Bitcoin is highlighted as being in a potential bull flag pattern, with a broadening structure that could lead to a price surge towards $100,000 or more.
• 📉 The speaker notes a lack of volume during Bitcoin's pullback, suggesting a consolidation phase before a possible breakout.
• 🌐 The video mentions positive institutional and retail interest in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, despite the market's recent turmoil.
• 💡 The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding market phases and capitalizing on them rather than attempting to trade every short-term fluctuation.
• 🚀 Anticipated macroeconomic factors, such as potential easing of U.S. interest rates, are expected to have a positive impact on the market and cryptocurrencies.
• 📅 Upcoming economic indicators, such as PPIs and CPIs, are highlighted as crucial for market direction, with the Federal Reserve's actions on interest rates being a key focus.
• 📊 The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, is discussed, with its decline often signaling an improvement in market conditions.
• 🌐 The speaker suggests that a weakening of the U.S. dollar, driven by potential Federal Reserve actions, could lead to a positive environment for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Q & A

What is the main focus of the video update?

The main focus of the video update is to discuss the recent volatility in the cryptocurrency market, analyze the potential for a bull flag in Bitcoin's price action, and provide insights into the broader market trends and upcoming economic indicators.

What does the speaker believe about the recent market volatility?

The speaker believes that the recent market volatility, which was the most since March 2020, was a one-step back for the market to take multiple steps forward and that it was a potential bear trap.

What is the speaker's view on the economy's health?

The speaker believes that the economy is in pretty good health, contrary to some negative perceptions, and that the market is poised for a positive movement.

What is the potential price target for Bitcoin mentioned in the script?

The potential price targets for Bitcoin mentioned in the script are around $100,000 and potentially above $150,000, based on the broader pattern being observed.

What does the speaker think about the retail involvement in the cryptocurrency market?

The speaker thinks that retail involvement in the cryptocurrency market is still very low and that retail investors have not yet fully entered the market, which is why institutionally chosen coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum have done well.

What is the significance of the VIX in the context of the market update?

The VIX, which measures market volatility, is mentioned to highlight the recent spike in volatility being compared to the levels seen in March 2020. The speaker suggests that a collapse in the VIX could indicate an upcoming uptrend in the markets.

What upcoming economic indicators are mentioned in the script?

The upcoming economic indicators mentioned in the script include PPIs, CPIs, and the potential actions of the Federal Reserve, which are expected to influence the direction of the markets.

How does the speaker view the role of institutional investors in the current market situation?

The speaker views institutional investors as having a significant role in the current market situation, noting that they have been buying the dip and positioning themselves, which could lead to a bullish trend.

What is the speaker's opinion on trading versus holding in the current market?

The speaker believes that holding and being in the right tokens could potentially be more profitable than actively trading in the current market, as trying to time the market can be burdensome and difficult to master.

What is the speaker's stance on the future performance of crypto assets?

The speaker is bullish on the future performance of crypto assets, particularly Bitcoin, and believes that they are set to outperform in a risk-on environment as global liquidity conditions improve.

What macro factors does the speaker believe are driving the market?

The speaker believes that macro factors such as the strength of the US dollar (Dixie), global liquidity, and the potential easing of interest rates by central banks are the main drivers of the market.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Crypto Market Update and Potential Bull Trap Analysis

The speaker begins by greeting the audience and setting the stage for a comprehensive daily cryptocurrency market update. They reflect on the week's events, highlighting the Japanese Yen carry trade unwinding and the market's volatility, which was the most significant since the March 2020 pandemic. Despite the turbulence, the speaker maintains a positive outlook, suggesting that the economy and markets are fundamentally healthy and that the downturn could be a precursor to significant growth. The video starts with a clip from Yahoo Finance discussing the possibility of a 'bull trap', a situation where the market drops sharply but then recovers, indicating a false bearish signal. The speaker agrees with this perspective and provides technical analysis, suggesting that Bitcoin is in a broadening structure that could lead to a price surge towards $100,000, with a potential to exceed $150,000 based on broader patterns. The speaker also discusses upcoming economic indicators such as PPIs and CPIs, which are crucial for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, and how these could positively impact the markets and risk assets.

05:01

🤔 Retail Involvement and Market Cycle Dynamics

In this paragraph, the speaker delves into the current state of retail involvement in the cryptocurrency market, suggesting that it is relatively low. They argue that institutionally favored coins like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana have performed well due to significant institutional investment, while retail investors have yet to fully enter the market. The speaker uses their YouTube channel's viewership as a barometer for retail interest, noting that despite high viewership for certain topics, the overall audience is still small compared to the global population, indicating vast potential for growth. They also discuss market cycles, emphasizing the importance of understanding the market's phase and the broader trend rather than focusing on short-term fluctuations. The speaker believes that holding and being in the right tokens will yield better results than active trading in the upcoming market phase, which they predict will be bullish.

10:01

📊 Market Volatility, VIX Analysis, and Upcoming Economic Indicators

The speaker continues by discussing the market's volatility, referencing the VIX index, which spiked significantly in the past week, making it one of the most volatile weeks since the 2020 pandemic. They analyze the VIX's historical behavior, noting that when it spikes, markets tend to fall, and when it retreats, markets rise. The speaker anticipates a collapse in the VIX, suggesting an upcoming uptrend in the market. They also touch on the potential weakening of the US Dollar, which they believe will be beneficial for risk-on environments and cryptocurrencies. The speaker provides a macroeconomic perspective, discussing global liquidity and its drivers, particularly the strength of the US Dollar and its implications for risk assets. They predict that upcoming economic data, including PPIs and CPIs, will be positive and that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates, which will further support the market and cryptocurrency growth. The speaker concludes by summarizing the market's current state and expressing optimism for the future performance of cryptocurrencies.

Keywords

💡Cryptocurrency Market Update

A 'Cryptocurrency Market Update' refers to a current analysis or summary of the state of the cryptocurrency market, including price movements, trends, and significant events. In the video's context, the host provides a comprehensive overview of the week's activities in the cryptocurrency space, highlighting volatility and market health, which is central to the video's theme of market analysis.

💡Japanese Yen Carry Trade

The 'Japanese Yen Carry Trade' is a financial strategy where investors borrow in Japanese Yen at low-interest rates and then invest in higher-yielding assets. In the script, it is mentioned as a significant factor contributing to market volatility, indicating that unwinding of such trades can impact the broader financial markets, including cryptocurrencies.

💡Volatility

Volatility in finance refers to the degree of variation of a trading price series over time. The video discusses the most volatile day/week since 2020, emphasizing the extreme fluctuations in the market. The term is crucial as it sets the stage for the discussion on market dynamics and the potential for a rebound or 'bull trap' scenario.

💡Bull Trap

A 'Bull Trap' is a false signal indicating that a security's price is on the rise, which may lure investors into buying before the price actually falls. The script mentions a clip from Yahoo Finance discussing the possibility of the recent price drop being a bull trap, suggesting a deceptive market condition that could lead to a reversal of the upward trend.

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency, without a central bank or single administrator, that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. In the video, Bitcoin is highlighted as a key player in the market, with discussions around its price predictions and potential movements, which are central to the video's analysis of market trends.

💡Bull Flag

A 'Bull Flag' is a continuation pattern used in technical analysis that indicates a possible upward price movement following a consolidation period. The script discusses the potential for Bitcoin to be in a bull flag pattern, suggesting a sideways momentum that may lead to a significant price increase, which is integral to the video's theme of market prediction.

💡Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve, often referred to as 'the Fed,' is the central banking system of the United States. It plays a crucial role in setting monetary policy, including interest rates. The video mentions the Fed's potential actions regarding quantitative easing or interest rate adjustments, which are pivotal to understanding broader economic implications for the cryptocurrency market.

💡CPI (Consumer Price Index)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. In the script, upcoming CPI data is highlighted as a significant economic indicator that could influence the Fed's decisions and, by extension, the cryptocurrency market.

💡Retail Involvement

Retail involvement refers to the participation of individual, non-professional investors in financial markets. The video discusses the current low level of retail involvement in cryptocurrency, suggesting that institutional investors are leading the market, which is an important consideration for understanding market dynamics and potential future growth.

💡VIX

The VIX, or Volatility Index, is a measure of market expectations for near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 index options. The video script mentions the VIX to illustrate the recent market volatility compared to historical periods, such as the 2020 events, providing context for the current market conditions and investor sentiment.

💡Dixie

The term 'Dixie' in the script refers to the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. The video discusses the potential weakening of the dollar as a positive factor for risk-on environments and cryptocurrencies, indicating a broader economic trend that could influence market behavior.

Highlights

The cryptocurrency market experienced its most volatile week since 2020, with the Japanese Yen carry trade unwinding.

Markets and economy are believed to be in good health despite the volatility, suggesting a potential for growth.

Discussion of a potential bull trap in the market, with the belief that the recent downturn could lead to significant upward movement.

Bitcoin is analyzed within a broadening structure, suggesting a bull flag that may lead to a price increase.

Price predictions for Bitcoin suggest a potential run towards the $100,000 mark, with a possibility of exceeding $150,000.

News from Morgan Stanley regarding market volatility and the VIX is mentioned, indicating market stability.

Upcoming economic indicators such as PPIs and CPIs are discussed, with expectations that they will influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

The potential positive ramifications of easing the dollar for the markets and risk assets are highlighted.

A belief that the current market phase is leading to an uptrend, particularly for altcoins, which are yet to see significant growth.

A clip from Yahoo Finance suggests that the recent price drop in Bitcoin may have been a bear trap, costing traders.

Fund flows analysis indicates institutional and retail interest in Bitcoin and Ether, despite market turmoil.

The importance of understanding market phases and capitalizing on them is emphasized over attempting to trade every fluctuation.

A detailed Bitcoin price analysis predicts a significant upward move, potentially breaking the $100K mark.

Macroeconomic factors are discussed, suggesting that the economy is not as bad as some suggest, with potential for a market uptrend.

The VIX is analyzed to show market volatility and its inverse relationship with market performance.

The potential weakening of the Dollar and its implications for global liquidity and risk-on environments are discussed.

Expectations for positive CPI data and its impact on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are highlighted.

Crypto is positioned as potentially the best-performing asset in the upcoming market conditions.

Reports of institutional buying during the dip suggest confidence in the market's recovery.

A summary of the video's content, emphasizing the potential for significant market movements and the importance of staying informed.

Transcripts

happy Sunday ladies and gentlemen all in

crypto here and welcome back guys what

is going to be nothing short of another

jam-packed daily cryptocurrency market

update with yours truly what a week it

has been and we've been sure to be

overly zealous in regards to actually

doubling up our daily Market updates

certainly on Monday and Tuesday and

covering exactly what took place there

was a lot of the Japanese Yen carry

trade unwinding going on and the market

saw the most volatile day slash week

since 2020 obviously the March 2020

events um and actually the markets are

still in pretty good health and we think

the economy also is so we truly believe

that this was just one step back in

order to go multiple steps forward we're

going to be looking at that from a

technical point of view we're going to

be starting the video off with a clip I

believe from Yahoo finance that talk

about the possibilities of this being a

bll trap which we've very much just

believe it is uh we'll be looking at

Bitcoin looking at the potential for

this being a bull flag Bitcoin very much

in a kind of broadening structure very

kind of bull flages we'll be giving you

some price predictions on the back end

of this Bitcoin may be setting up and

this sideways momentum may be setting up

just a pullback that is ultimately going

to lead to a run to around about the

$100,000 Mark now we have a price brick

of 151,000 I do think potentially it's

going to go above and beyond that based

on a broader pattern that we've been um

watching but we'll put all that into to

context and then we're going to be

looking at a little bit of news we've

got news from Morgan Stanley we'll talk

about the market volatility um and we'll

look at the vix we'll look at the sort

of standing of the markets and then

we're going to be getting into the week

ahead because it's going to be a very

interesting week ahead it's a very

interesting week that we're coming off

the back end of um but in the week ahead

we've got things like ppis and of course

we've got cpis which is of course one of

the fed's main mandates the Federal

Reserve are on the cusp of going for

um sort of quantitive easing or

certainly lowering interest rates easing

those interest rates and just like we

saw the strengthening of a currency like

the Yen have a ramification a negative

ramification on the markets we think

there's going to be a positive

ramification for the markets with the

easing of the dollar uh certainly uh the

implications that has for the dixing and

the implications that has for risk

assets broadly we think it's an amazing

sort of uh time that we have ahead of us

ladies and gentlemen I truly do believe

that my money is well and truly where my

mouth is and I want everybody to know

about that that's what this Channel and

these daily Market updates are all about

helping you guys navigate what is a

treacherous market and it's well and

truly my belief that last week was a

great example of why I believe people

shouldn't try and trade this Market they

should just understand where the

market's at in regards to its phase and

what's to come uh and capitalize off of

that and we think there's a kind of

phase two uh uptrend ahead of us for the

space generally and altcoins really are

yet to hear that starting pistol if you

will so

without further Ado let's dive into

everything let's start things off with a

clip from Yahoo finance that are calling

this a bear trap we'll look at it

contextually a Bitcoin chart then we'll

get into everything we've got to be

getting into with you guys I'm going to

go ahead and mute my mic let's dive into

the well Bitcoin is up more than 5% as

investors look to regain some ground

from this week's selloff some Traders

believe the quick reversal suggests the

recent price drop may have been a bear

trap Yahoo finance markets and data

editor Jared blicky is tracking those

recent swings Jared Brad Bitcoin is a is

a uh basically a trap let's check out

the price action this week uh it's been

very volatile this is actually a

three-month look and uh you can see we

just had this dip uh all the way down to

about 48,000 there and for me 60,000 has

been the important level to watch and

I'm going to zoom out here I'm going to

put a year- to-day chart on here and

here's the 60,000 level we've below it

once twice and this is a third time each

time going a little bit below but then

climbing back above 60,000 these are all

false breakdowns you can call them bear

traps um and it costs Traders a a lot of

money and peace of mind but nevertheless

that's what's happening but another way

to look at it it's just in a little bit

of a flag here from a sustained up move

that's a one-year look and it's even

more apparent on the 5year so this is

just a tiny little flag here in the

grand scheme of things but it's painful

on a day-to-day basis now when I was

watching I've been following fund flows

as well we have all these new Bitcoin

spot Bitcoin ETFs and not only Bitcoin

but ether and we've seen some really

positive movements this week I think

overall the sector was uh lost about 250

million uh dollars or 250 billion

dollars but when you take into

consideration that a lot of that was out

of the grayscale entities uh you really

you get a positive netflow for Bitcoin

so I think it's positive that we have in

the midst of all this terminal turmoil

we still have a lot of institutional and

Retail interest in these funds

guys so I really don't think retail

largely is here very low retail

involvement I think in in in in crypto

generally that's why we've seen the

coins that we have seen Bitcoin ethereum

salana do well because they're very

institutionally Chosen and we've seen

lots of flows in regards to etps retail

is still really yet to come and this is

how Market Cycles typically work retail

doesn't get in until uh institutions

have positioned yes retail like me and

you and I am retail don't trade with

hundreds of millions um retail like me

and you might be in and and speculating

on what's to come but the the general

population you know we've spoke about

our own uh kind of um barometer as a

popular crypto YouTube channel you know

on certain topics like hbar ICP for

example we get some of the most watched

content frequently we're really at the

Forefront of content in regards to those

alt coins and many others out there uh

even things like salana

um 10 to 20,000 people in the grand

scheme of YouTube's 2. .1 billion users

monthly or the 8 to9 billion people that

exist on the

planet there's there's an amazing kind

of um infinite growth that is still to

be had in regards to um users population

and and and speculators we also uh heard

there that we'll talk about from a chart

point of view in just a second but he

also talks um about how it was a very

volatile week it was indeed and actually

when you look at crypto on a more zoomed

out approach which is what we to do

we're not interested in capturing

shortterm upside or downside we're

interested in the broader Trend so we

don't want to get people out when the

market is selling off um because we

think it's going to be you're going to

put a burden on yourself that I don't

think many people can master and that is

getting out getting back in getting out

getting back in I actually think you're

going to make more money than traders in

what's to come just by sitting in the

move and being smart and in the right

tokens that's my honest um belief and I

think the markets are in great standing

and I think given the fact that it was

one of the most volatile weeks and we'll

talk about that in just a second we'll

look at the vix and a number of other

things the markets are generally in good

standing it had everything to do with

the Y carry trade you know this is a

pullback for Bitcoin on this pullback

one nice thing to note is the lack of

volume you're seeing a declining volume

into this this is very much just flages

now we have that $151 Target for Bitcoin

Bitcoin is going to be the tide that

rides and sinks All Ships we yet to see

Bitcoin dominance role there's a

beautiful picture that's being painted

um now if you want to draw this as a

bull flag and we're going to take the

bull flag from here to here we're going

to ignore this just here depending on

how you measure your bull flag some

people like to measure it from the uh

last touch on the lower band of support

some like to measure on the breakout and

we're yet still to break out so this is

rough you could potentially if we go off

the last touch here be looking at

$130,000 Bitcoin there's a number of

ways you could draw this bull flag so

let's put them all on here but I do

think you're looking at a push towards

that 100K if you wanted to just take it

from down

here you could do I think taking it from

where we've took it from is just fine

you know there's going to be a number of

predictions that you're going to get

this one's getting you to 100K I

honestly think that once you break this

you are very much marching your way

forward to that 100K Mark and then

eventually that 150k Mark and

potentially above and uh Beyond it so I

think that that is to come the stage is

very much set we know on a macro point

of view I think we're in good standing

the economy is not doing as bad at all

as what many people are saying it is I

know there's a lot of turbulence going

on in the

world certainly here in the UK and I

dare not say anything about it through

fear of imprisonment um literally um

it's a very be careful Allin uh

interesting situation that is taking

place here in the UK uh and I have got a

lot to say on it but I'll hold my tongue

for now I think a lot of people have a

lot to say on it in all in all honesty

um but we are very much I believe

looking at a pretty pretty spectacular

move whether you want to use this as

your kind of flag pole or whether you

want to use this shorter one as your

flag pole I think this was the last sort

of serious dip which also coincides with

our right shoulder for our head and

shoulders you know you are looking I

believe at a a pretty significant move

and let's put these Targets on now to um

the upside for Bitcoin and it's just

waiting to sort of break out uh and and

and complete what is very much I believe

a a bare trap and if we look at the

markets generally it was the uh most

volatile week since the uh something

outbreak which of course took place in

March 2020 you can see this is the vix

so let's zoom out on the vix let's get

rid of the 30 weekly moving average

because it's not really needed here this

was March

2020 and look at the volatility you saw

on the back end of this so typically vix

down markets up it was more volatile

than uh obviously what took place with

the reverse repo that caused easing

initially you know and and further back

from that you know we're getting to sort

of

2008 levels and I believe the

market certainly if we throw the S&P on

which is going to come up in a nice

Bitcoin

orange is going to do very well on the

back end of this so when the vix spikes

the markets go down when it starts to

come down the market start to go up and

we're seeing a real collapse in the vix

after aggressive Spike um all again I

believe caused on the Japanese uh Nicki

or sorry Yen trade certainly the Nicki

bearing the brunt of that um but there's

more contagion for markets and I think

the Nick I did a video yesterday where I

talked about my macro reasons and we're

looking at technically what we're

looking at here just for Bitcoin but we

could do it with the altcoin market we

could do it with the small stock market

as well we did it briefly yesterday we

covered in yesterday's video do go and

watch that our macro reason for be being

bullish based on global liquidity a main

driver of that being the Dixie and its

strength uh and we looked at the fact

that actually Monday was a great

educational day because it really showed

us the effects of strength in the Forex

market and the ramifications that has on

risk and we're about to get a weakening

I believe of the Dixie which is the main

driver I think of global liquidity and

that's ultimately going to be a good

time for risk on environments and crypto

I believe is very much in an up Trend

against those risk on environments we've

looked at that a lot previously um and

he's going to really start to outperform

it's going to coincide with this sort of

next run out of this bull flag this kind

of broadening Channel that I think

you're very much setting up to do

talking about volatility you know if you

look at something like the S&P for

example this I believe is just a

pullback in what is a broader uptrend

you've still got to close this Gap we

could see that coming on the back end of

next week on the topic of next week it's

going to be an interesting week we've

got UK data that's going to be an

interesting one to watch we've got us

ppis expectations are for this to come

down

slightly um lower than the previous one

I think the previous one was 0.2 this is

coming out

0.1 and then the big one for me of

course is um us CPI and of course you

got UK CPI now if you look at true

inflationary stats these are essentially

where the fed and uh the UK government

want them we know the UK has already

started to lower interest rates um the

US is about to follow that's going to

ease the Dixie we've got targets for the

pound against the dollar the Euro

against the dollar and potentially the

Japanese Yen against the dollar um which

all point in the same direction along

with collapsing yields and and forward

guidance but the expectations for cpis

are 2.9 that's positive data I think

really for me I'm interested in just

getting round to next month and seeing

what unemployment comes out because once

that scares out the way of you know I

think and that growth scare as Tom Lee

said I think the markets are really

setting up for a real significant move

and the probabilities now are that the

FED cut rates in September by 25 basis

points quar perc and potentially it's

it's about even with a 50 basis points

and the FED

typically cut rates at rather an

aggressive manner in my own personal uh

experience or if certainly when you look

at the charts and know a pivot doesn't

always result in a crash it in 2000s and

2008 2000s it was already crashing when

they pivoted 2008 you know obviously the

housing issue we don't have those issues

now and I think generally data support

a good time ahead of us and I think

crypto is going to be the best

performing asset within that so that's

it for me ladies and gentlemen just a

short sweet compact one um interesting

clip to start the video off one that we

thought was worth sharing because we

very much agree with it um we saw from

JP Morgan and Gman Sachs they both

reported that um institutions bought the

dip very crypto kind of phrase uh we

also saw from Richard Tang the binance

CEO that we saw I think it was 1.4 1.2

billion doar worth of inflows in cash

into binance suggesting they bought the

dip it's going to be very interesting to

look and we will look at it tomorrow at

coin shares report and of course report

on that for you on a magical Monday so

that's it from me ladies and gentlemen

I'm going to love and leave you on that

note if you've enjoyed the content like

us appreciate so as a comment see each

and every one of you in the next YouTube

video thanks a lot for watching guys see

you in the next one