Japan *JUST* Crashed the *GLOBAL* Stock Market.
Summary
TLDRIn this video, the host discusses the potential reasons behind the market collapse, focusing on the Japanese carry trade and its impact on global markets. The carry trade involves borrowing in Japan at low interest rates to invest in higher-yielding assets abroad. However, recent changes in Japanese monetary policy and the appreciation of the yen have led to significant losses for investors, contributing to market instability. The video also touches on geopolitical tensions and recession fears, adding to the uncertainty in financial markets.
Takeaways
- π The markets are experiencing a significant downturn, with the Japanese stock market and bond market hitting circuit breakers, indicating a temporary halt in trading due to extreme volatility.
- πΎ The Japanese carry trade is a significant factor in the current market situation. It involves borrowing money in Japan at low interest rates and investing in higher-yielding assets elsewhere, such as U.S. Treasuries or stocks.
- π The script suggests that the Japanese carry trade could be contributing to the global market instability, as it has led to a large-scale movement of capital and currency fluctuations.
- π The Japanese Yen has typically been on a downward trend, making the carry trade profitable for investors who benefit from the depreciation of the Yen against other currencies.
- π« However, the situation can reverse if Japan decides to raise interest rates, making its bonds more attractive and causing a flight to safety, which can lead to a rapid appreciation of the Yen.
- πΈ The potential for a margin call and subsequent liquidation of positions can exacerbate market downturns, as investors scramble to cover their positions when asset prices fall and currencies appreciate.
- π The script mentions that the scale of the carry trade could be substantial, with estimates suggesting it could represent up to 10% of the U.S. stock market, indicating a broad impact on risk assets.
- π‘ The speaker highlights the uncertainty in the market due to geopolitical tensions, such as the potential for an Iranian attack on Israel, and the possibility of a U.S. recession.
- π¦ Japanese banks are particularly vulnerable to the effects of the carry trade unwinding, as they may face losses on loans and a decline in their stock valuations.
- π The script also discusses the impact on individual stocks and cryptocurrencies, noting significant declines in major companies like Tesla and Bitcoin.
- π€ The speaker speculates on the potential actions of central banks, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may prioritize combating inflation over avoiding a recession, implying limited intervention in the markets.
Q & A
What is the Japanese carry trade mentioned in the video script?
-The Japanese carry trade refers to a financial strategy where investors borrow money in Japan at low or negative interest rates and then invest that money in higher-yielding assets, such as U.S. Treasuries or stocks, in other countries. This is done to profit from the difference in interest rates between Japan and other countries.
Why has the Japanese stock market been performing poorly recently?
-The script suggests that the Japanese stock market has been underperforming due to a combination of factors, including the impact of the carry trade, potential geopolitical tensions, and fears of a recession. Additionally, the market has experienced circuit breakers being triggered, indicating high volatility and significant drops in stock prices.
What is the potential impact of the Japanese carry trade on global markets?
-The carry trade can lead to increased volatility in global markets. If the Japanese Yen appreciates in value, it can make it more expensive for investors to repay their loans, leading to forced selling of assets and potential market crashes. The script suggests that this trade could involve up to 10% of the U.S. stock market, indicating its significant influence on global financial markets.
How does the script explain the potential for a market crash due to the Japanese carry trade?
-The script outlines a scenario where if the Japanese Yen appreciates significantly due to changes in interest rates or other factors, investors who have borrowed in Yen to invest in higher-yielding assets may face margin calls and be forced to sell their assets to repay their loans. This selling pressure can exacerbate market declines and potentially lead to a crash.
What is the role of interest rates in the Japanese carry trade?
-Interest rates play a crucial role in the carry trade. Investors are attracted to borrow in Japan due to its historically low or negative interest rates. When these rates rise, as mentioned in the script, it can make the carry trade less attractive and lead to a reversal of capital flows, impacting global markets.
What does the script suggest about the current state of the U.S. bond market?
-The script indicates that the U.S. bond market is currently attractive due to higher yields compared to Japanese bonds. However, it also suggests that the situation could change if Japan raises its interest rates, which could make Japanese bonds more attractive and lead to capital outflows from the U.S. bond market.
How does the script discuss the potential for a recession in the U.S.?
-The script mentions recession fears in America as one of the factors contributing to market uncertainty. It suggests that the Federal Reserve may prioritize fighting inflation over avoiding a recession, implying that aggressive monetary policy actions to combat inflation could potentially lead to a recession.
What is the significance of the Japanese Yen's value in the carry trade?
-The value of the Japanese Yen is significant because a weaker Yen makes the carry trade more profitable, as it reduces the cost of repaying loans taken out in Yen. However, if the Yen appreciates, it can increase the cost of repaying these loans, leading to potential losses for investors engaged in the carry trade.
What does the script imply about the role of the Federal Reserve in a potential market downturn?
-The script implies that the Federal Reserve may not intervene to prevent a market downturn due to its focus on controlling inflation. It suggests that the Fed may prioritize long-term economic stability over short-term market stability, potentially allowing a recession to occur if it helps to curb inflation.
What is the script's view on the potential for a conflict involving Iran and Israel impacting markets?
-The script suggests that an imminent threat of an attack by Iran and Hezbollah against Israel could contribute to market instability. Geopolitical tensions and the potential for conflict can increase uncertainty in financial markets and may exacerbate existing market pressures.
Outlines
π Market Collapse and Japanese Carry Trade Explained
The video discusses the reasons behind the market collapse, focusing on the Japanese carry trade's role. It explains how Japan's low-interest rates have led to a situation where investors borrow in yen to invest in higher-yielding assets like U.S. treasuries. The summary covers the impact of Japan's economic stagnation and deflation on its interest rates, the resulting currency devaluation, and the carry trade's potential contribution to market instability. It also mentions other geopolitical and economic factors that could affect the markets, such as the threat of an Iranian attack on Israel and the possibility of a U.S. recession.
π€ The Mechanics and Risks of the Japanese Carry Trade
This paragraph delves into how the Japanese carry trade operates as an arbitrage of interest rates. It illustrates the process with an example of borrowing yen at low rates to invest in higher-yielding U.S. assets. The description outlines the potential profits from currency devaluation and higher returns on investment. However, it also highlights the risks involved, such as the scenario where Japan raises interest rates, causing the yen to appreciate and leading to losses for carry trade investors if the invested assets decline in value. The summary emphasizes the dangers of margin calls and the potential for market panic and liquidation, which could exacerbate market downturns.
π The Reversal of Carry Trade and Its Market Impact
The paragraph explains the consequences of Japan's decision to raise interest rates, which can make Japanese bonds more attractive and lead to a rise in the yen's value. It discusses how this can cause significant losses for carry trade investors, particularly if they are leveraged and face margin calls. The summary describes the potential cascading effects on U.S. stock markets and the banking sector in Japan, which could suffer from defaults on loans. It also touches on the scale of the carry trade, suggesting it could represent a significant portion of the U.S. stock market, and the broader implications for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
πΈ Debt, Inflation, and the Future of Japanese Monetary Policy
This paragraph examines Japan's high debt-to-GDP ratio and its implications for monetary policy, suggesting that Japan is unlikely to engage in further money printing due to its already substantial debt levels. The summary addresses the potential for an Iranian attack, U.S. recession fears, and the impact of these uncertainties on market sentiment. It also discusses the Federal Reserve's priorities, suggesting that it is more concerned with combating inflation than avoiding a recession. The paragraph concludes with a call to action for viewers to consider cash and treasury bonds as safe investments and to subscribe for further insights on market trends and investment strategies.
Mindmap
Keywords
π‘Japanese Carry Trade
π‘Deflation
π‘Inflation
π‘Interest Rates
π‘Circuit Breaker
π‘Margin Loan
π‘Leverage
π‘Debt-to-GDP Ratio
π‘Liquidation
π‘Margin Call
π‘Federal Reserve
Highlights
Markets are experiencing a collapse, with the Japanese carry trade being a significant factor.
Japan's unique economic situation with low to negative interest rates has facilitated the carry trade.
The Japanese stock market and bond market have triggered circuit breakers, halting trading temporarily.
South Korea's market has also been affected, with selling restrictions implemented after a significant drop.
Japanese banks are experiencing significant stock value drops, with the second largest bank down 15.5%.
Gold prices are up, but cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are down, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment.
Major US stocks like Tesla, Apple, and Nvidia are also seeing significant declines.
The concept of the carry trade is explained, involving borrowing at low interest rates in Japan to invest in higher-yield assets.
The risks of the carry trade are discussed, including the potential for increased volatility and losses if conditions change.
Japan's recent interest rate hike has led to a stronger yen, impacting the profitability of the carry trade.
The potential scale of the carry trade's impact on the US stock market is suggested to be as much as 10%.
Japan's high debt-to-GDP ratio is highlighted as a constraint on its ability to engage in further monetary easing.
The possibility of an Iranian attack on Israel adds geopolitical uncertainty to the market situation.
US recession fears and the Federal Reserve's priorities are discussed, with a focus on their potential response to inflation.
The importance of cash and treasury bonds as safe investments in the current market climate is suggested.
A poll among viewers indicates a general sentiment towards buying the dip or holding positions rather than selling.
The video concludes with a discussion on life insurance as a potential safeguard against market volatility.
Transcripts
why are markets absolutely collapsing
what is this Japanese carry trade we're
going to talk about that and explain it
in this video so you fully understand
the Japanese carry trade everybody keeps
talking about and why Japan could be
leading markets to crash in America of
course it could also be that we are now
under an imminent threat of an Iranian
and Hezbollah Leed attack against Israel
which threatens to be larger than
anything Israel has ever seen before
with Israel now warning that Israelis
could be without power for 3 days as
they face a multi-pronged attack
expected to begin within the next 24
hours if not tonight then tomorrow
night just crazy world that we're in or
is it just that the US might be going
into a recession or D all of the above H
well in this video we're going to start
by talking about the Japanese carry
trade and trying to explain it
now let's be clear right at the start
the Japanese stock market ain't doing
too well just in the last 12 hours the
Japanese Market well let's just put it
this way their topics index circuit
breaker hit no more trading for a period
of time bond market circuit breaker hit
no more trading for a period of time
South Korea in sympathy for what's going
on in Japan just decided you know what
nobody's allowed to sell after The
Cosby's down
4.6% zoom in on Japan for a moment nay
down over 65% the Nay 225 Nintendo
stocks down 11.3% but who cares about
Nintendo what are the banks doing in
Japan oh the second largest bank in the
country down 15.5% the largest bank in
the country like the equivalent of a JP
Morgan down
12.2% well at least Gold's up real gold
not digital gold because bitcoin's down
11% at the down 21% in the overnight
trading app Robin Hood you could look at
Tesla down 6% Apple down 6.9% Nvidia
down 6.75% and all Futures are red LED
by no joke small caps and NASDAQ 100 and
you've got the S&P down 1.42% Dow future
is also down 77% so this just a quick
little rundown on what the heck is going
on here this is a lot of pain why what
is going on well let's start with the
carry trade let's explain this so
everybody knows that the entire world
has been facing a lot of
inflation except for Japan they've
basically stagnated since the 90s and
they've faced issues of too much
deflation maybe they're not having
enough babies maybe they're not having
enough
Innovation who knows but they did not
have the inflation problem of the rest
of the world this meant that while Japan
Japan was actually lowering rates and
had negative interest rates everyone
else was Raising interest rates now this
does something very interesting because
when interest rates go up in let's say
the United States it becomes more
attractive to buy the 10-year treasury
bond so for example if the 10year
treasury is trading for
3.76% just like it is now and the
Japanese 10 years trading for
82% which Bond would you rather have the
10year debt paying you 3.7% guaranteed
and backed by the full faith and credit
of the US or the Japanese 10e paying you
just
82% it's a no-brainer an absolute
no-brainer you're going to buy the US
Bond and if you have any other currency
you're going to sell that other currency
you're going to go buy US Dollars and
you're going to go invest in that us
bond this creates a lot of selling
pressure on currencies like the Japanese
Yen so the Japanese Yen goes down in
value which enables something unique
called the carry trade okay now you're
going to have to roll with me on this
one because it's a little complicated
but I'm going to make it as simple as
possible okay here's an example of what
a carry trade looks like and and let's
just start extremely simple let's just
say right now you want to take on a
margin loan on stocks in America
it might cost you
65% in the US but what if you could go
to Japan and in Japan you could borrow
at
1.5% oh well that's a lot more desirable
why don't I go borrow in Japan and then
go invest that money in either us
treasuries which are literally yielding
more than what I'm paying on my debt or
how about mag six stock or mag s stocks
whatever you want right mag 6 mag 7 the
biggest stocks in America buy some
Nvidia buy the diot some Tesla whatever
this is essentially an Arbitrage of
interest rates that's what this all
comes down to now how does this go wrong
well first of all to understand how it
goes wrong let's understand how it goes
right let's say I borrow oodles and
Boodles of money in Japan and that
oodles and nooodles just to make math
simple right now we're just going to
call it $11,000 I go borrow $11,000 or
I'll call it ,000 Yen uh $1,000 worth of
Yen that's what we'll call it
$1,000 uh worth of uh Japanese Yen and
I'm going to take that money and I'm
going to use it to go buy us assets well
if the Japanese Yen keeps going down in
value it's actually going to be a lot
cheaper for me to pay off that money
like let's say I take that ,000 and I
put it into us treasuries over here well
every single year I'm getting my 3 or 5%
yield on money markets or treasuries
maybe even a little bit more so maybe
let's say over here I've all of a sudden
after a year got 1,050 bucks and the
Japanese Yen fell 20% in value so I
actually only have to pay back $800
worth of Yen over here this is great I
picked up 50 bucks very cheaply in
America so I'm plus 5050 over here and I
can now pay that Yen back with $200
fewer dollars so I pick up $200 over
here let's go baby I just made 250 bucks
25% chit Ching investing on the fact
that the Japanese yen is going down and
guess what the Japanese Yen usually goes
does like what is the Japanese Yen
usually do well because they're facing
deflation and stagnation it's usually
either stable
or it goes down with the exception of
very rare cases the Japanese Yen usually
just loses lots of money it's just kind
of unfortunately the way it's worked so
for example if you pull up the US uh to
uh Japanese Yen valuation over here you
can see there are very rare cases where
the Japanese Yen spikes once over here
in '95 over here in 2011 you can see
over here the Yen's actually been
plummeting so it's actually made the the
carry trade more desirable I mean you've
dropped 27% in the value of the Yen so
that example I just gave on the iPad
over here this has been printing money
it's been absolutely minting minting
minting yeah to close this door I here
the children again hold on a sec double
I got two two sound doors over there
let's close this stuff anyway so you've
been printing money doing this carry
trade because the Japanese y just go
down down down so people keep adding to
their bets adding to their bets adding
to their bets adding the bets okay cool
like you're winning that's wonderful
like Kevin what's wrong with this ah yes
yes there has to be a downside of any
trade right of course there is so let's
say you decided to take your $1,000 over
uh in Japan so you're going to borrow
$1,000 worth of uh Japanese Yen okay
so we take our $1,000 over here $1,000
worth of Japanese Y and now what we're
going to do is we're going to invest
that into the dip on Tesla okay and
let's just say we bought Tesla just for
Giggles because this could be anything
okay you're like man Tesla's going to
the Moon baby I'mma buy it at
270 and then of course you know Elon rug
pulls you and you know delays the robo
taxi event whatever okay we we don't you
put any placeholder there this is not a
Tesla video is could be anything it
could be Nvidia at darn things down like
25% from its peak you know it could be
Tesla obviously you're going to be down
about 30ish per it does not matter what
it is or you have a leverag position
doesn't matter what it is let's go with
you buy Tesla at 270 okay you know what
forget even what price it is you just
put $11,000 into Tesla stock right here
because you borrowed $1,000 worth of Yen
you put it all into Tesla stock but wait
a minute
if you put $1,000 into a broker in
America why are you just going to use
$11,000 come on man reg te margin 50%
down I get to buy
$2,000 of Tesla with
$1,000 of a deposit right that is a
typical margin Loan in America so now I
borrowed the money cheap over here the
money that I borrowed very cheaply in
Japan I'm now going to leverage again in
the US Stock Market but why was this
matter I mean the Japanese currency
keeps devaluing everything should be
fine oh but wait then all of a sudden
Japan says hey look everyone we finally
got it up let's raise interest rates
because inflation is finally moving up
uh what yes this is exactly what Japan
did last week they raised interest rates
25 basis points and they were already at
positive so they just went up another 25
BPS and what happens when countries
raise their interest rates that's right
their bonds become more desirable
especially since Japan is now going up
and everybody else is cutting so you're
getting more of a yield in Japan so what
all of a sudden happens to the value of
the US dollar when yields go down oh the
dollar goes down the Japanese Yen goes
up which exacerbates the spread because
you're going in both
directions and so oh over the last month
so over the last 30 days the Japanese
Yen has appreciated
10% o o oh but wait a minute I borrowed
$1,000 worth of Yen over here how many
dollars do I need now to repay that loan
in Japan well now because it's 10% more
expensive I need
$1,100 to repay my loan in Japan no
problem no problem what's my Tesla stock
doing oh God it's down
30% and I'm on margin
oh okay so just to make math a little
fun here actually the example I did is I
went with 35% so let's assume it's down
35% that's down
$700 on
$22,000 so that means all of a sudden I
have
$1,300 left over here but wait a minute
I'm such a dgen i also borrowed over
here so I actually only have $300 of
equity $300 of equity out of the
$2,000 of stock I bought is
15% oh who's that calling oh it's Mr
margin calling a now you get liquidated
sure you get your $300 back but you got
liquidated which contributes to more
selling pressure in the United States
oh no but wait a minute bro now I only
have $300 left and I have to pay an a an
$1,100 loan off in Japan and now Japan
is going hey bro margin's calling and
you're like what why because sir you
have $300 of collateral left on the
$1,100 loan you just took out because we
could see what you did with your money
we want our money back you're at margin
levels and you're like okay guess I'm
filing BK and getting host boom now you
have to either borrow more from
somewhere else to pay off that $1,100
loan or you're defaulting and you're
destroying the banks which now it
totally makes sense why the banks are
collapsing in Japan well their stock
valuations are collapsing because they
are getting burned over here on their
debt as well so they burn us in our
stock market and they get and they burn
the banks over over there now how big is
this trade well nobody really knows
Kathy Wood thinks it could be as much as
10% of the United States stock market
that's massive like as much as1
trillion of Leverage in all risk assets
risk assets crypto stocks doesn't matter
okay this is always funny because I talk
about this in my course member live
streams and people are like oh you know
sometimes people are like oh but Kev
crypto is not a a a risk asset like it
is the definition of risk asset why do
you think gold is up and bitcoin's down
11% right now your boy Kevin by the way
uh let's just say this is not an
advertisement or anything but I've been
talking about this for for a couple
weeks now since probably since about
July 11th like everything really hit the
fan but um on on the fund I manage we're
NE we're like 5% short Bitcoin I wish I
had more short Bitcoin right now because
that's going to do really freaking well
tomorrow remember if you want any might
buy sell alerts or anything
meetkevin.com you can learn everything
in the courses I'm building your with
you should be part of the course member
live streams because we talk about this
kind of stuff on a daily basis or even
chat in our Discord server uh but anyway
what is next well maybe Japan can just
print more money right and they could
sort of solve this issue right well so
far the uh Japanese cabinet is saying
they're watching Market moves with a
sense of urgency and uh don't worry
share prices are determined by
determined by a variet of forces and um
yeah we're just going to keep
watching that doesn't really inspire a
lot of confidence so what about the
money printing part Kevin like when when
are they just going to turn the printer
on again and make all this pain go away
ah okay well in order to understand that
we have to consider what Japan's debt to
GDP is and compare it to where everybody
else is in the rest of the world so we
have a lot of debt in the United States
we know a little over 100% here Japan's
debt to GDP sits around 263
per. that is higher than Venezuela and
it takes the number one spot for being
the most indebted country in the world
as it compares to GDP that's pretty
pathetic so I don't think they're
turning on the money printer anytime
soon because they freaking
can't add to this the fact that an
attack by Iran is likely imminent and
add to this that people are pricing in
re recession fears in America and you've
got a whole heck a lot of uncertainty
now does that necessarily mean that the
United States stock Market is going to
sell off on Monday well the Futures
Market says so but that was during the
Japanese stock market open maybe cooler
heads will prevail and everything will
be hunky dory in the morning everything
will start going up again we'll have a
nice little rebound and maybe we'll open
up to just a little byy the dip
opportunity and nothing else to see here
everything's fine or things will
completely panic and everybody will take
every opportunity at a bounce just to
sell more stock because this is a
sinking ship and everybody sees the exit
over there well according to a poll I
ran on X the ladder doesn't seem to be
the big priority in fact according to a
poll I ran on X which you should follow
me there at real meet Kevin with
6,761 results 44.6% of you said yes
Kevin by the dip 34.3% of you said I'm
holding and only 21.2% of you suggested
that you were selling also when I
suggested that Bitcoin might be a risk
asset somebody replied to me and said
but Kevin they're investing in Bitcoin
for the
tech right that's going to help save you
in these Market moves it won't anyway so
I'm curious what do you all think what
are you all going to do I will make the
argument that probably the safest
investment right now is Cash followed by
treasury bonds which might continue to
collapse in yields now you might be
thinking oh but Kevin the Federal
Reserve is going to come bail us out
right well this is where you have to ask
yourself what does the FED care more
about avoiding recession or avoiding
inflation H see I ran that poll as well
and the vast majority of people said oh
the the FED wants to avoid a recession
and to that I
say I'm out of a drink you're wrong the
FED cares way more about destroying
inflation because inflation ends
countries recessions are healthy so
buckle up buckle up the FED ain't coming
to bail you out anytime soon now if you
want to know exactly what I'm trading
make sure you're part of those courses
over at Meek kevin.com always make sure
to hit that subscribe button we're about
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haven't hit that button yet and you're
not part of the pre-2 million subscriber
Clan I don't know what yall waiting for
we got a great Clan going on here okay
the mkk I mean the MKC it's great come
join thank you so much for watching and
we'll see you all in the next one
goodbye and good luck by the way if any
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life see you all
bye these things that you told us here I
feel like nobody else knows about this
we'll we'll try a little advertising and
see how it goes congratulations man you
have done so much people love you people
look up to you Kevin P there financial
analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin always
great to get your
take even though I'm a licensed
financial adviser licensed real estate
broker and becoming a stock broker this
video is not personalized advice for you
it is not tax legal or otherwise
personalized advice tailored to you this
video provides generalized perspective
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or Services we may benefit from I also
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Securities potentially including those
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