Eco 155: Principles of Macroeconomics Class 3
Summary
TLDRThe script discusses economic principles and their real-world implications, focusing on long-term effects of policies versus short-term intentions. It uses examples like airline safety regulations for children, fuel economy standards, and property value to illustrate how outcomes can diverge from expectations. The speaker emphasizes avoiding biases and the importance of ceteris paribus in economic analysis, critiquing the misuse of data and graphs to distort perceptions.
Takeaways
- 🏠 The voice of the speaker is strained due to home renovation activities, including removing carpet and installing a French door.
- 🔨 The discussion revolves around economic principles and their long-term effects, which can differ significantly from short-term outcomes.
- 👶 The Federal Aviation Administration is considering regulations for children under two years old to have their own airplane seats for safety reasons, which could increase costs and potentially lead to more driving and accidents.
- ✈️ The safety regulations for children on airplanes may inadvertently cause more harm by encouraging driving over flying, which is statistically safer.
- 🚗 Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards are linked to changes in car design, potentially leading to more fatalities due to smaller, lighter vehicles being less safe in accidents.
- 📊 The importance of accurate data representation is emphasized, as changing graph scales or providing incomplete data can introduce bias and mislead interpretations.
- 📚 The value of subjective worth is highlighted, suggesting that value cannot be objectively measured and is instead determined by what someone is willing to pay.
- 🌳 The story of 'Luna the tree' illustrates the concept of subjective value and the opportunity cost of actions, as one woman's protest to save a tree had significant personal sacrifice.
- 📉 The script cautions against the violation of 'ceteris paribus', a principle that requires isolating variables to understand the true impact of changes.
- 🤔 It warns against introducing bias in economic analysis, using examples of how altering graph scales or relying on limited data can skew perceptions and potentially influence policy.
- 📚 The discussion concludes with the importance of reading to children for educational development, noting the potential bias in studies that suggest a significant reading gap between low and middle-income households.
Q & A
What is the main concern of the Federal Aviation Administration when considering regulations for children under the age of two on airplanes?
-The main concern is safety. The idea is to prevent young children from being injured or causing injury to others in case of accidents, as they could be thrown from a parent's lap during a collision or turbulence.
How might increased costs of flying due to regulations affect people's behavior according to the script?
-Increased costs of flying might lead people to seek alternative, potentially less safe, modes of transportation, such as driving, which could result in more accidents and fatalities compared to flying.
What is the purpose of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards mentioned in the script?
-The purpose of CAFE standards is to improve fuel efficiency in vehicles, which can help reduce fuel consumption, lower emissions, and potentially decrease dependence on foreign oil, as was the case after the oil embargo in the 1970s.
Why might making cars lighter and smaller to meet CAFE standards have unintended consequences?
-Making cars lighter and smaller can lead to a decrease in safety, as smaller cars may be more vulnerable in collisions with larger vehicles, potentially resulting in more fatalities from car accidents.
What does the script suggest about the long-term effects of policies or actions, and why are they important to consider?
-The script suggests that long-term effects can be vastly different from short-term effects and may sometimes be more detrimental. Considering these effects is important because they can influence the overall success or failure of a policy and its impact on society.
What is the concept of 'ceteris paribus' in the context of the script, and why is it important to avoid its violation?
-'Ceteris paribus,' which means 'all else being equal,' is important because it allows for the isolation of variables when analyzing changes. Violating this concept by changing multiple factors at once can make it difficult to accurately assess the impact of a single variable.
Why is it crucial to avoid introducing bias when analyzing data or presenting information, as mentioned in the script?
-Avoiding bias is crucial because it ensures the accuracy and objectivity of the analysis. Bias can lead to misleading conclusions and policy decisions, which may not accurately represent the situation or the needs of the population.
What is the example of the woman named Julia, also known as 'Butterfly,' and what point was she trying to make by living in a tree for two years?
-Julia, known as 'Butterfly,' lived in a tree for two years to prevent a logging company from cutting it down. She was making a point about the value of private property and the environment, showing the lengths to which individuals may go to protect what they value.
How does the script illustrate the subjective nature of value and the importance of willingness to pay in determining it?
-The script uses the example of Julia living in a tree and the concept of an appraisal to show that value is subjective and determined by what someone is willing to pay or sacrifice for it, rather than an objective measure.
What are some examples given in the script to demonstrate how changing the scale of a graph can introduce bias or mislead interpretation?
-The script provides examples of stock graphs and labor force participation rates, showing how altering the scale can make one option appear more favorable or unfavorable than another, thus influencing perceptions and decisions.
What is the issue with using a small sample size to generalize findings, as illustrated by the reading time example in the script?
-Using a small sample size to generalize findings can introduce significant bias and inaccuracies. The script cites an example where estimates of reading time for low-income and middle-income households were based on a very small number of observations, leading to potentially misleading conclusions.
Outlines
🏠 Home Renovation and Economic Principles
The speaker is undertaking a home renovation project in the basement, including carpet removal, installation of a French door, and painting. Amidst the dust and strain on their voice, they discuss economic concepts such as opportunity cost, incentives, marginalism, and information costs. They review these concepts and introduce the idea that economic accidents can have long-term effects different from short-term intentions, using the Federal Aviation Administration's considerations for airline regulations on children under two as an example.
🛫 Airline Safety Regulations and Economic Trade-offs
This paragraph delves into the potential safety regulation changes for children under two on airplanes, discussing the economic principle of cost and the trade-offs involved. It contrasts the safety of flying with driving, highlighting that flying is statistically safer. The speaker ponders the unintended consequences of increased costs on consumer behavior, suggesting that such regulations could lead to more car travel and potentially more accidents.
🚗 Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards and Unintended Consequences
The discussion shifts to the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards, exploring how these regulations can influence vehicle design and safety. The speaker suggests that smaller, lighter cars, which are produced to meet fuel efficiency standards, may contribute to more fatalities in accidents. They cite economic research indicating that CAFE standards could be responsible for approximately 2,000 deaths per year due to changes in the types of vehicles on the road.
🌳 The Value of a Tree and Subjective Economics
The speaker tells the story of Julia 'Butterfly' Hill, who lived in a tree for two years to prevent it from being cut down, illustrating the subjective nature of value in economics. They argue that value cannot be objectively measured and is instead determined by what an individual is willing to sacrifice or pay. The anecdote is used to emphasize that personal values and costs can significantly influence economic decisions.
📈 The Importance of Isolating Variables in Economic Analysis
This paragraph discusses the methodological importance of isolating variables when analyzing economic changes. The speaker uses the example of wheat yield increases due to fertilizer and pesticide to illustrate the difficulty of attributing changes to specific factors. They stress the need to maintain the ceteris paribus condition—assuming all else is equal—to accurately assess economic impacts.
📊 Avoiding Bias in Economic Data Presentation
The speaker warns against introducing bias in economic data presentation, using stock graphs with altered scales to demonstrate how easily perceptions can be manipulated. They differentiate between positive and normative economics, emphasizing the importance of objectivity in analysis and the dangers of letting personal opinions influence economic interpretations.
📉 Misleading Graphs and Economic Data Misinterpretation
Building on the previous point, the speaker provides further examples of how graph scaling can mislead by showing the same Dow Jones Industrial Average data in two different ways. They highlight how changes in scale can make one stock appear to perform worse or better than another, even though the data represents the same performance.
📊 Labor Force Participation Rate and Data Representation
The speaker critiques the representation of labor force participation rates, particularly for black males, in economic data. They demonstrate how changing the scale of a graph can alter perceptions of trends, from stability to significant decline. The paragraph underscores the power of data visualization in shaping economic narratives.
🔥 The Colorado Wildfire and the Sensationalism of Data
In the final paragraph, the speaker reflects on the media's portrayal of a Colorado wildfire, which consumed 11,000 acres. They calculate the area to be approximately 17 square miles, a size that, while significant, may not warrant the extensive media coverage it received. The speaker suggests that the sensationalism of data can distort public perception and priorities.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Opportunity Cost
💡Incentives
💡Marginalism
💡Information Costs
💡Long-Run Effects
💡Economic Accidents
💡Subjective Value
💡Ceteris Paribus
💡Bias
💡Regression Analysis
💡Labor Force Participation Rate
Highlights
Renovating the basement by tearing out carpet and installing a new French door.
Discussing the long-term effects of economic decisions and how they can differ from short-term outcomes.
Examining the potential safety regulations for children under two on airplanes and their unintended consequences.
The impact of increased flight costs on people's behavior and the potential shift to less safe transportation methods.
Analyzing corporate average fuel economy standards and their role in altering car structures, leading to increased accident fatalities.
The subjective nature of value and the inability to objectively measure it through examples like house appraisals.
The story of Julia 'Butterfly' Hill living in a tree for two years to prevent it from being cut down, illustrating the personal value of property.
The importance of the ceteris paribus assumption in economic analysis to isolate the effects of single variables.
Avoiding the introduction of bias in economic analysis, such as through graph scaling or selective data presentation.
The critique of the reading time gap between low-income and middle-income households, questioning the validity of the data and potential bias.
The discussion on how media coverage can distort perceptions of events, such as the extensive报道of a relatively small wildfire in Colorado.
The concept of opportunity cost illustrated through the example of living in a tree to save it, and what was sacrificed in the process.
The unintended consequences of well-intended policies, such as child safety on airplanes leading to potentially more harm.
The economic principle that incentives influence behavior, as seen in responses to increased flight costs.
The role of marginalism in decision-making, weighing marginal benefits against marginal costs.
The critique of the use of graphs to present data in a potentially misleading way, emphasizing the importance of accurate representation.
The economic principle that value is determined by what an individual is willing to pay, not by objective measures.
The practical application of economic theories in everyday life, such as home renovation projects and transportation choices.
Transcripts
[Music]
okay we'll see how long my voice last
I'm tearing out our carpet in the
basement and taking out I took out a
door over the weekend and finished
putting in a new French door so we're
taking up the carpet and really leveling
the basement floor doing some painting
some other things so all that dusts is
my voice really hurts and I'm it's gotta
last till 11 o'clock so we'll see if it
will see if some coffee helps it so what
we want to do today is we want to finish
up our discussion of the things to do we
want to look at some things to avoid and
we'll go over some graphing so let's
kind of review what we had looked at
last time so we had these things to do
these ideas that we wanted to keep in
mind and we had things like opportunity
cost blessing we had things like people
economize
we said incentives alter people's
behavior we said marginalism was
important right looking at the marginal
benefits versus the marginal cost our
fifth one was on information right we
said information was important but it
was costed to obtain and so what we want
to look at today is basically number six
number seven
so number six here
economic accidents can generate long-run
effects that are vastly different from
the short-run effects right so in other
words when we're engaging and we're
doing stuff and we pass policies we can
get results in the long run that are a
whole lot different than what we
actually intended in the short run and
actually can be more detrimental in one
way than what we had originally started
so let's look at a couple of different
examples the Federal Aviation
Administration is considering laws or
regulations
on children under the age of two okay so
currently here is the way that it works
right when you get on an airplane and
you have a child that's less than two
years old that child does not have to
have a seat
they can sit on your lap okay now why do
you think they would be interested in
making there's thinking about changing
this so that the child under the age of
two auste house also has to have their
own seat why do you think they would be
interested in that do what well they
don't have anything to do with costs
they're not the airline's so it's not it
has nothing to do with making people buy
extra seats mm-hmm exactly right the
whole idea behind it is safety right the
idea being that just like in a regular
car right if you have your child in your
lap and the car hits another car there's
no way you can keep the child with you I
mean the car the kid is gonna go all
right the whole idea here is the same
thing right with the airlines you don't
want little babies flying around the cab
and hitting people in the back of the
head and hurting them all right because
that's gonna be bad for the child and
for the adult forget the fact the planes
crash into the ground from six miles in
the sky at 600 miles an hour all right
nobody's gonna survive anyway but
irrespective of that that's the idea now
let's think about that because making
your child buy a seat actually does make
what go up she just said it the cost
right so if we have an increase in costs
to fly how might people respond to that
so what would they do dry and what's
safer driving or flying fly flying safer
than walking did you guys know that it
is the safest form of transportation it
is safer than walking so what we have
done is we have in the guise of safety
and this is what they're thinking about
doing and the guise of safety what
they're thinking about doing is they're
going to take people out of the airplane
which is very safe put lots of kids into
cars which are relatively unsafe and
actually cause probably more people to
get killed in the car than they would
and the plane there's another example
since we're on cars
we have our corporate average fuel
economy standards what they say is that
one of automaker is selling cars the
average fuel economy of the fleet has to
meet a certain level huh
so let's assume it's 25 it's not 25
let's assume that it is 25 miles per
gallon and in essence what we want to do
is we want to sell this other car this
other car gets say 15 miles per gallon
which means every single time I sell one
of these guys a 15 mile per gallon car
I've got to sell another car that gets
how many miles per gallon exactly right
because 35 and 25 the average is 25 15
and 35 average out to 25 now if they
don't reach this standard the fines are
quite substantial right so the fines you
know if they are at twenty four point
nine miles per gallon the fine is X
number of dollars times however many
cars they sold all of the cars that they
sold right so they have an incentive to
ensure that they reach this standard so
how can we get cars to have 35 miles per
gallon rather than say 15 or 25 miles
per gallon what can we do
how would we get this that's one way
relatively easy or relatively hard it's
yeah it's hard right if it was easy to
make the engine more efficient they
would have already done that how can you
make the car have an increase in gotten
miles per gallon easily make the car
lighter so you make them out of plastic
and make them smaller
that's the easy way right the car I
drove and I was in college was a 1970
Buick LeSabre it was all steel
there wasn't any plastic in there and in
fact when you're goofing off and stuff
and you accidentally back into somebody
or you're back into a pole or something
it's the pole in the building that gets
damaged not my car right today's cars
the bumpers are made out of plastic all
right and they're a whole lot smaller my
whole fraternity could fit into my Buick
LeSabre hey let's all go to so-and-so
120 guys jump in we all go alright so
let's think about this here for a second
small little tiny light car made out of
plastic that's really really tiny it's
driving down the highway at 70 miles an
hour runs into Ford f-150 also going 70
miles an hour who's going to win Ford
f-150 and in fact economists have
figured out using things like regression
analysis and things like that that the
corporate average fuel economy standards
are responsible for approximately 2,000
deaths per year from auto accidents
right it changes the structure of cars
on the road enough and you can sit there
and you can analyze the accidents and
who is driving these cars and why
they're driving these cars and you can
say we figured out that there's about
2,000 people that die every single year
on the highways is because of the
corporate average fuel economy standards
it puts people into really small really
liked cars
and interestingly enough it's not if you
would think to yourself okay well just
get rid of the Ford f-150s make them all
small light cars and the small light car
sitting small light cars kills people
small light cars and big heavy cars
kills people big heavy cars big heavy
cars tends to not kill as many people
all right
so it's not a matter of Oh get rid of
all of these
and put everybody in this that doesn't
help either right so we have these
long-run effects that can be vastly
different from the short-run effects
right I mean this guy right here is
directly related to safety we want to
ensure that kids under the age of two
don't die or actually making people die
we want to ensure that we have fuel
economy standards because we had an oil
embargo in the 70s right and in essence
what you get is you get about 2,000
people a year dying these long run
effects can be vastly different from the
short run effects right because what
have they done they've done things like
they have changed incentives people are
economizing what's the opportunity cost
of this stuff number seven value is
subjective right
we cannot go out and objectively measure
value you can't do that
if I think my house is worth $300,000
there's really only one way to know if
my house is worth $300,000 and what is
that just see if somebody's going to buy
it
I can't just go out and say this house
is worth $300,000 one of the things that
I think is really really interesting
when you buy a house you have an
appraisal and the appraisal person comes
out and says yes this house is worth
this or yes this house is not worth that
I've never really actually understood
the purpose of that because if you have
a buyer that is willing to pay $300,000
for the house and by definition the
house is worth $300,000 that's what that
means right and in essence I don't
understand the idea behind the appraisal
the idea behind the appraisal is that
look if you don't make your payments the
bank wants to insure that if they take
possession of your house they can sell
it to somebody else
but in essence what they're saying is
that yeah sure enough we're thinking
that your house is worth this much well
of course it is somebody's willing to
pay that there's another way to think of
this right there's a woman by the name
of Julia and she calls her name
butterfly
he'll you guys know what she's famous
for and you probably don't she's from my
age she lived in a tree for two years
out in California why do you think she
would do that
do what she was making a point what
would that point be no it was in essence
it was private property it was a Lumber
Company and the Lumber Company was
eventually gonna turn the tree into
lumber they're gonna cut it down and she
didn't want the tree to cut down she
didn't think the tree should be cut down
and so she lived in the tree thinking of
course but they can't cut the tree down
while I'm up there that would be really
really bad for public relations and she
would be right right so she lived in
this tree for two years out in
California so that they wouldn't cut it
down she actually even named the tree
she called it Luna all right and she had
people come out there and she would
lower down a bucket and they would give
her food and she'd bring it back up and
of course when she's going to the
bathroom she just goes to the bathroom
and she lived in this tree for two years
right eventually the company says fine
come out of the tree we promise not to
cut down Luna and all the trees within
100 yards around it okay just get out of
the darn tree so she comes down other
tree blah blah blah how much is that
tree worth to her
Oh a lot right would you guys live in a
tree for two years no right what is the
opportunity cost of her living in a tree
for two years two years pay right two
years worth of relationships with normal
people all right rather than owls and
grubs and things like that right so you
can't say to yourself the tree doesn't
have value because the tree clearly does
have values nobody was willing to in
essence sacrifice two years of their
life right in essence to save this tree
so we cannot objectively measure value
value is what somebody is willing to pay
interestingly enough of course because
she lived in the tree for two years and
went to the bathroom for two years the
tree actually died so but that's I guess
that's beside the point
she actually ended up killing the tree
some of her friends tried it too on some
other trees and then they found out that
gravity can really suck if you know what
I mean that's true story okay
so it's like a things to avoid
first thing we want to avoid is
violation of the idea of ceteris paribus
so terrorist paribus here means
everything else equal
okay I know those when we're looking at
changes we want to make sure that we're
only looking at one thing changing at a
time so let's look at an example let's
suppose we've got a field
and this field gives us 100 bushels of
wheat okay and then next year we apply
10% more fertilizer and 10% more
pesticide and we get 130 bushels how
much of those extra bushels are from the
fertilizer and how much are from the
pesticide we don't know exactly let's
assume that the year after that we just
put on 10% more fertilizer and we get
say a hundred and ten bushels what can
we say now
can we say that no what can we say for
sure the fertilizer at a tent why can we
not say that 10% in the pesticide out of
20 there's two things that are changing
and it's possible that the fertilizer
and the pesticide are also interacting
with each other right
the only way for us to know how much the
additional pesticide is is to have one
that is only pesticide
now what can we say yep
we can say what else mm-hmm and we can
say one more thing ten percent more
fertilizer gives ten percent more
bushels right when we're looking at
these changes we can only have one thing
changing at a time if we have a whole
bunch of different things changing we
it's difficult to say how much of this
change how much of what we're seeing
here $300,000 from my house or corporate
average fuel economy or people not
flying and driving how much of that is
coming from just the change that is
occurring right we have to be able to
isolate those changes and that can be
difficult to do but it's something that
you have to try to do right we want to
look at only one thing changing at a
time second thing we want to avoid is
introducing bias why would we want to
avoid that
what type of economics would that be
we got a 50-50 chance of guess all right
no
what kind would that be
positive or normative so if we introduce
bias what are we doing Norman right
normative economics is by definition
opinion and that's an essence what bias
is let's look at a couple different
examples here
I've got two different stocks these are
real stocks this is not made up okay
here's the first one okay got that idea
in your mind what that guy looks like
here's the second one which stock would
you rather buy the first guy or the
second guy first guy right these are in
essence the exact same thing this is
actually the Dow Jones Industrial stock
average and you can see over here he
starts here at 11,500 and he goes to
7,500 what's this guy doing
twelve thousand all the way down to zero
all right
and you can see that these guys are the
same we got to line them up
yeah it's pretty good so we've got
this guy right here he matches that guy
here's these two guys there they are
right there there's these three guys
there they are right there here's this
guy here see that flat part there there
he is
comes down here there's that guy there's
that guy there's that guy all right all
I did was change the scale of the graph
and by changing the scale of the graph I
made one guy look worse than the other
guy
right no it's the same this is the same
this guy shows this guy just doing this
right he's relatively flat to here right
and then has a small little dip right
what's happening here with this guy when
you look at this guy what do you say to
yourself this is a good investment or
this is a bad investment this guy is
going all the way from here to here
right and in fact I mean you can
actually show it and we can show that
this guy here's this guy right here he's
going he's starting at this point right
here and he's headed to this guy right
so can we see that if we keep him going
that's what he's doing right generally
speaking
this guy's going from here and he's
ending here all right if this guy keeps
going on he's gonna wind up here right
which rate of descent is higher is is
higher was worse it's clearly this guy
but it's the same thing all you did was
change the scale by changing the scale
you made one thing look worse than the
other or one thing look better than the
other
do we need another example you guys not
convinced
I'll just pull this down would be easier
this actually let's look at some more
examples
there's the Bureau of Labor Statistics
let's look at let's look at national
employment rates
usually it's this guy right here that's
not enabled I have to use that one so
let's see if they changed it
hey let's try this guy
[Laughter]
okay here's the labor force
participation rate we'll understand a
little bit more of it this means when we
start talking about unemployment and
employment things like that
so here's this guy you guys got this guy
in your head let's download him as Excel
okay
and let's go ahead and make a chart so
here's this guy's going from 1948 to
here we're gonna insert that's not one I
want a line okay here's our guy right
here let's do the exact same thing again
all this guy all the way down
okay there's the labor force
participation rate how does that look
pretty steady that's what I would say -
what about this guy
steady no different from the other guy
right
here it is for black males or is this
just blacks no we want black males
you let me know if you see it here we go
right here this'll do we have been with
let's change the scale here too let's
change this guy too let's change our
strike that let's change that guy just
sixteen five she was just good cocked
what's that guy doing he's decreasing
he's going down a whole bunch looks like
it to me
what about now
he's pretty steady a slight decline
maybe but not that bad I haven't changed
the date at all I want this data to show
that the labor force participation rates
for African males has fallen off a cliff
does that show that no
oops
that guy does backed it solo it doesn't
even show up the rest on the graph
that's how bad it is
all right horrible all right same date
oh I just made it show something
completely different
here's another example it seems to exist
how to measure the class gap in reading
okay I'm gonna read you what part of
what this says call it the reading
income gap children from low-income
households average 25 hours of shared
reading time with their parents before
starting school compared with 1,000 to
1,700 hours for their counterparts for
middle income homes these oft repeated
numbers originated in a 1990 book by
Marilyn Adams titled beginning to read
thinking and learning about print okay
so here's what this says did you guys as
parents read to you maybe they did maybe
they did write what this guy says is
this she's saying look I've done some
studies and I have shown that people
from low-income households
h/h is my abbreviation for households
these people from low-income households
their parents read to them from the time
they're born till the time they are
going into kindergarten they get twenty
five hours of reading their parents
reading them twenty five hours in the
course of five years five hours a year
all right the middle-income households
they do this one thousand seventeen
hundred all right so if it's a thousand
hours let's not just make it a thousand
okay there's no way I'm wearing nice
clothes again with these double-sided
markers so it's just I'm gonna start
showing up and yucky clothes those are
gonna get all over me
let's look at our calculator here what
do you do this search it again on this
oh here we go
so here's a thousand hours all right
divided by five 200 divided by 365 50
for 30 minutes a day something like that
all right you're doing 1,700 divided by
five there reading three hundred and
forty hours a year divided by 365 right
0.9 three times 60 55 minutes a day
that's what that guy says right clearly
if you're getting read to 55 minutes a
day from age zero all the way up to age
five when you go into school are you
gonna be a better reader ceteris paribus
or a worse reader a better reader
ceteris paribus right keeping everything
else constant you're gonna do better in
school right does anyone
disagree with that think no that's
stupid if you parents read to you they
do worse in school everything else
constant so here's these numbers right
snitch says okay these low-income
households read to the kids twenty five
hours from zero to five middle-income a
thousand hours right
these oft repeated numbers originated in
a 1990 book by Marilyn Adams titled
beginning to read thinking about
learning in print
mrs. Adams got the 25 hour estimate from
a study that she did of 24 children and
22 low-income households so you say to
yourself where does this never come from
22 households for the middle income
figures see extrapolated from the
experience of a single child her then
four-year-old son John
do you think there might be a little
bias here
yeah and in fact interestingly enough
when you read about this these two
numbers like these can persevere in
advocacy material right
no major group opposes childhood reading
or argues that children from low-income
households shouldn't have a level
playing field right I mean the her book
here was used people read this book and
said oh my gosh this is horrible we have
to do stuff we're gonna change public
policy and rearrange dollars and
spending and things like that to fix
this problem and I'm not saying that
low-income households don't read to
their children more or less than
middle-income households I don't know
and I'm not saying that reading to your
kids is bad it's it's good the problem
is is that you have introduced bias here
alright here's another example several
years ago I lived in Georgia when I was
living in Georgia they had a giant
forest fire near us or actually I guess
was out in Colorado so had they had this
giant wildfire out in Colorado and the
reason that I remember this is because
it was on the news constantly I mean it
was just constantly on the news it never
went away it was on the news 24 hours a
day seven days a week and by the time
this thing was all said and done they
had burned out about 11,000 acres I was
thinking herself
Wow 11,000 acres that's really bad and
then I got to thinking about it I said
because it's on the news all the time it
was literally 24 hours a day I was like
wait a minute what how much area that is
11,000 acres and you've got about 640
acres in a square mile
which means this guy right here is
approximately 17 square miles and of
course as you guys know from sixth grade
math fifth grade math if you have a box
four by four miles in size this carrot
here is 16 all right so this box right
here would be like 4.1 something like
that and this guy right here is
approximately 17
the information wasn't incorrect 11,000
acres did burn but what sounds sexier
11,000 acres burning or a box for miles
by 4 miles burned in Colorado
you see I'm saying is this interesting
guys been to Colorado it's a big state
Missouri is a big state a box for miles
by 4 miles of wildfire and Missouri
burned I mean when you're driving in
your car from this point to this point
on the road you pass it in four minutes
right and you're driving along you're
having a conversation with your friend
four minutes later you're done and then
turn and go four minutes the other way
that box that's what burned right and
that's what was in the news for all that
week it must have been a really slow
news week because this sounds really
really sex is like oh my gosh we've got
to do something the whole world's coming
to an end this right here is like who
cares about that why are you talking
about the spa blah blah blah we'll pick
it up from there on Wednesday
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