BITCOIN: BLACK SWAN IS HERE!!!!!! 🚨🚨🚨 BUCKLE UP (trillions will be printed)
Summary
TLDRLe script aborde la chute spectaculaire des marchés financiers, incluant Bitcoin et Ethereum, ainsi que les perturbations causées par la politique monétaire japonaise. L'augmentation des taux d'intérêt par le Japon a entraîné la fin du 'carry trade', forçant les investisseurs à vendre des actifs pour rembourser des yen. Ce phénomène est comparé à l'épidémie de 2020, suggérant que les marchés pourraient connaître une reprise. L'analyse inclut également des éléments géopolitiques et des prévisions pour les prochaines actions de la Réserve fédérale américaine.
Takeaways
- 📉 Le marché des crypto-monnaies a connu une chute significative, avec des baisses de 10% à 30% pour Bitcoin, Ethereum et Solana.
- 🌐 L'instabilité macroéconomique est à l'origine de cette situation, avec des marchés boursiers en chute libre et des mesures extrêmes prises comme la suspension du marché boursier en Corée du Sud.
- 🇯🇵 La situation au Japon est à l'origine de beaucoup de cette turbulence, avec une augmentation des taux d'intérêt pour sauver la monnaie qui a entraîné une cascade de liquidation.
- 🔄 La fin du 'carry trade' japonais est un facteur clé, où les investisseurs doivent rembourser des emprunts en yen après une augmentation de la valeur de cette monnaie.
- 💸 L'augmentation des taux d'intérêt au Japon affecte également les marchés financiers mondiaux, forçant les investisseurs à vendre d'autres actifs pour couvrir leurs positions.
- 🔄 La dynamique réflexive est observée dans les marchés, similaire à ce qui s'est produit avec Terra, où les actions prises par les investisseurs entraînent des changements de prix qui renforcent encore plus les actions initiales.
- 🚀 Certains voient cette situation comme une opportunité, se rappelant que les marchés ont connu une hausse massive après les chutes précédentes, comme en 2020.
- 💡 L'auteur suggère que la situation actuelle pourrait conduire à une nouvelle politique monétaire expansionniste, avec des mesures de quantitéitative éasing possibles pour stabiliser les marchés.
- 🌍 Il y a une incertitude géopolitique accrue, avec des tensions en Ukraine, au Moyen-Orient et au Royaume-Uni, ajoutant à l'instabilité des marchés.
- 📊 Les marchés financiers mondiaux sont en proie à une volatilité accrue, avec des perspectives de baisse des taux d'intérêt et de nouvelles élections aux États-Unis.
- 🛑 L'auteur conclut en recommandant de rester calme et de planifier pour l'avenir, soulignant que les situations actuelles pourraient être temporaires et offrir des opportunités d'achat.
Q & A
Quel est l'effet actuel sur le marché des crypto-monnaies comme le Bitcoin et l'Ethereum?
-Le marché des crypto-monnaies est en baisse, avec le Bitcoin et l'Ethereum qui ont enregistré respectivement une baisse de 10% et 20% en une journée, et encore plus sur une échelle hebdomadaire.
Quels sont les pourcentages de baisse du Bitcoin et de l'Ethereum sur une base quotidienne et hebdomadaire?
-Le Bitcoin a connu une baisse de 10% en une journée et de 20% sur une semaine. L'Ethereum a enregistré une baisse de 20% en une journée et de 30% sur une semaine.
Quel est le lien entre les marchés financiers et les événements macroéconomiques mentionnés dans le script?
-Les marchés financiers, y compris les crypto-monnaies, sont influencés par les événements macroéconomiques comme la situation au Japon, où l'augmentation des taux d'intérêt a provoqué une volatilité accrue et une liquidation des actifs.
Pourquoi les marchés boursiers ont-ils été si affectés récemment?
-Les marchés boursiers ont été affectés en raison de la volatilité accrue due à l'augmentation des taux d'intérêt au Japon, qui a entraîné une liquidation en chaîne des investissements effectués avec des devises japonaises à taux d'intérêt bas.
Quel est le concept de 'trade carry' au Japon et comment cela affecte-t-il les marchés financiers mondiaux?
-Le 'trade carry' au Japon implique l'emprunt en yens à des taux d'intérêt bas pour investir dans des actifs à rendement plus élevé dans d'autres devises. L'augmentation des taux d'intérêt au Japon met fin à cette pratique, ce qui pousse les investisseurs à racheter des yens et à vendre d'autres actifs.
Quelle est la situation actuelle du marché boursier sud-coréen et pourquoi est-il fermé?
-Le marché boursier sud-coréen a été fermé en raison d'une baisse massive des valeurs boursières, similaire à une situation de 'dumpage', qui a provoqué une intervention pour prévenir une panique plus large sur le marché.
Quels sont les parallèles entre la situation actuelle et l'année 2020?
-La situation actuelle se compare à 2020 en termes de volatilité du marché et de crises économiques mondiales, mais il est également souligné que les marchés ont connu une reprise significative la même année.
Quel est le rôle de la politique monétaire dans la stabilité des marchés financiers?
-La politique monétaire, notamment les taux d'intérêt, a un impact direct sur la stabilité des marchés financiers. Les changements dans ces politiques peuvent entraîner des fluctuations des taux de change et des liquidations d'actifs.
Quels sont les risques pour les investisseurs impliqués dans le 'trade carry' au Japon?
-Les investisseurs impliqués dans le 'trade carry' au Japon sont confrontés à des risques de liquidation en chaîne, des pertes de valeur de leurs investissements et une augmentation des coûts de leur emprunt en raison de l'augmentation des taux d'intérêt.
Quelle est la perspective d'avenir pour les marchés financiers et les crypto-monnaies selon le script?
-Bien que les marchés soient actuellement perturbés, le script suggère que la situation pourrait être temporaire et que les marchés pourraient se redresser, similaire à ce qui s'est passé en 2020 après la pandémie de COVID-19.
Quels sont les facteurs géopolitiques et économiques qui pourraient influencer les marchés à court terme?
-Les tensions géopolitiques telles que les relations entre l'Iran et Israël, les situations économiques et politiques au Royaume-Uni et les perspectives d'élections aux États-Unis peuvent avoir un impact sur les marchés à court terme.
Outlines
📉 Marché en effondrement : Bitcoin et altcoins en chute
Le script décrit un marché en effondrement avec Bitcoin et Ethereum chutant respectivement de 10% et 20% en une journée, et encore plus sur une semaine. Il mentionne également la situation macroéconomique, où les marchés boursiers sont en freefall, et la Corée du Sud a même dû fermer son marché boursier en raison d'une chute massive. L'auteur compare la situation à celle de 2020 et souligne que Bitcoin suit un cycle de quatre ans, suggérant que l'on pourrait répéter la même situation que celle de 2020. Il exprime son optimisme malgré la situation actuelle, en se basant sur l'idée que les marchés ont atteint des sommets après une période de baisse en 2020.
🌐 Impact de la politique monétaire japonaise sur les marchés
Ce paragraphe détaille les conséquences de la politique monétaire du Japon, où l'augmentation des taux d'intérêt est causée par une inflation élevée et une dépréciation de la yen. Cela met fin au 'carry trade', une stratégie de trading où les investisseurs empruntaient en yen à des taux d'intérêt bas pour investir dans d'autres actifs à rendement plus élevé. Maintenant, avec l'augmentation des taux, les investisseurs sont obligés de racheter la yen pour rembourser leurs emprunts, ce qui pousse la valeur de la yen à augmenter. Ce phénomène entraîne une cascade de liquidation, où la vente d'autres actifs comme les actions technologiques et les marchés boursiers est nécessaire pour payer les emprunts japonais.
🚀 Opportunités dans le chaos : prévisions et conseils
Dans le dernier paragraphe, l'auteur insiste sur le fait que, malgré la situation actuelle, il y a des opportunités à saisir. Il mentionne que l'effondrement du 'carry trade' japonais et la situation macroéconomique globale pourraient conduire à une intervention de la part de la Réserve fédérale américaine pour stabiliser les marchés. Il compare la situation à celle de 2020, où les marchés ont finalement connu une forte hausse après une période de panique. L'auteur conclut en disant qu'il est important de rester calme, de planifier l'avenir et de prendre des parieurs éclairés, soulignant que la situation pourrait être un moment propice pour investir.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Bitcoin
💡Volatilité
💡Macroéconomie
💡Marché boursier
💡Cycle de quatre ans
💡Carry trade
💡Taux d'intérêt
💡Liquidation
💡Inflation
💡Dumpage
💡Opportunité
Highlights
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are experiencing significant drops, with Bitcoin down 10% and Ethereum down 20% in a single day.
The weekly performance of cryptocurrencies is even worse, with Ethereum down 30% and Solana down 30% on the weekly chart.
Macroeconomic factors are causing turmoil, with stock markets collapsing, particularly in Korea where trading was halted due to massive sell-offs.
The situation is reminiscent of 2020, suggesting a potential for a market recovery later in the year, as seen historically.
The speaker is traveling and pre-recording the video due to the urgent market conditions.
The video encourages viewers to subscribe and use a provided link for trading, offering a sign-up bonus.
Japan's economy is in crisis, leading to an increase in interest rates to protect the currency, impacting global markets.
The end of the Japan carry trade is causing a liquidation cascade as investors sell assets to buy back Yen.
The situation is compared to the 2020 COVID-19 panic, suggesting potential government intervention to stabilize markets.
The speaker suggests that the current market conditions could be an opportunity for investors, despite the turmoil.
There is speculation about the involvement of Jump Trading in the current market conditions and its impact on the crypto industry.
The speaker mentions geopolitical tensions, including potential conflicts in the Middle East and the UK's political instability.
The market is described as being in a state of panic, with assets being sold off rapidly.
The speaker predicts that the Federal Reserve will likely step in to prevent further market crashes.
The video concludes with the speaker leaving for a trip and promising to keep the audience updated on market conditions.
Transcripts
check check check okay guys we're back
to yet another black one and as you can
see we have Bitcoin minus 10% today and
minus 20% on the weekly we have e minus
20% today minus 30% on the weekly we
have salana minus 10% today minus 30% on
the weekly I mean this looks more and
more like a black one because also we
have craziness happening in macro macro
is going to zero currently stock Mark
stock markets collapsing left and right
in Korea they have stopped the stock
market because the the dumpage was so
big the just closed the whole thing down
they opened it today and then they just
Clos it down because the dumpage is
massive we'll be speaking about what's
causing this because this is coming from
Japan also you understand that this
current scenario is very much like 2020
when I look back this really reminds me
about 2020 and as you know Bitcoin is in
a four-year cycle we're in 2024 right
now remove four years and we're
basically repeating the situation from
the from this Co Dum but we have to also
understand that when that happened you
look here in uh 2020 you go back what
happened afterwards was up only that's
why I mean personally I'm not too
worried because we had this dump here
then Boop and we were at massive highs
during the same year even you see during
the same year so all of this is is
temporary but of course you open up your
the Twitter you just see this what the
just happened everyone liquidating
jump trading exiting everything is
breaking but that's why we're here we're
here to set the record straight and
actually this week guys I'm traveling
I'm going to leave it to the airport
very very soon I was not even planning
to do a video I was planning to do
tomorrow but listen the market the
market is calling what can I sell the
market is calling welcome everyone who
is watching live that's why we
pre-record today this is not live but
Smash Up the like subscribe to the
channel check out the bit link below as
always if you think we're going to go to
zero just with a big fat short you can
make money on crypto pumps or dumps as
you know using bit you support the
channel you get your first dollars to
get your positions in because you get a
very big sign up bonus if you use the
link below and listen I mean the current
situation it's it it is what it is you
know waking up seeing if minus 20% again
it's very much like 2020 this is the co
dump Vibes exactly like sasel is saying
and it's bullish I mean believe it or
not we're so maybe brain damaged or
something in crypto at the end of the
day we know that after Co what happened
a massive pump across all assets so in
at the endly this is even bullish
because you remove all of this worst
case scenarios like when the worst case
scenario has already happened you remove
it from the from the menu you remove it
from the realm of possibilities now uh
like Benjamin com Co says we have not
seen this in a while in crypto exactly I
mean we have not seen this basically
since the C dump and that was that was
worse it's not even as bad right now but
let me explain to where this is coming
from because it's important to
understand so as you know Japan is going
to zero like the whole currency the
whole economy is all going to zero just
like the dollar also but dollar is a bit
delayed so Japan it's really wrecked
it's massively massively wrecked and to
save their currency they're now
increasing the interest rates okay they
do it not because they want to do it
they really cannot afford to increase
interest rate but it's just that the
general public is so wrecked it's high
inflation so they have to protect the
currency they increase the interest rate
now for the longest time Japan has had
very low interest rates in comparison to
other markets like the US Japan has had
extremely low interest rates so there is
this so-called carry trade that has been
going on and if you are online you are
on Twitter you probably have read that
you know the Japan carry trade is coming
to an end let me explain to you why
there is and what it is first first and
foremost what is it well when you have a
Japanese Yen and you have low interest
rates in in the Japanese Yen you can
borrow it at low interest rate and then
you can buy US Treasury or us assets or
tech stocks anything else that will give
you some kind of return because you
borrow from a currency which has zero
interest rate or low interest rate and
then you buy assets that give you more
yield or you buy treasuries that give
you more yield in other currencies so
this has been going on for years and
years and years the us has had high
interest rates last few years and even
before that so we have this massive
massive carry trade so to speak which
bets on the fact that the uh Us and
other markets will have higher interest
rate than the Japanese Yan so obviously
now it's all changing because Japan
cannot continue like this they start
increasing rates they are trying to save
their currency they will not be able to
but they're trying so this car trade is
coming to an end where everyone who's
borrowed Japanese Yen now has to return
Japanese Yen because now they're going
up in price and when people are
returning to Japanese end they have to
buy them back because if I borrow them
and then I go and buy something else
like tech stocks or or treasuries in the
US now I have to buy back the Japanese
Yan and when I buy it back I push the
price even higher so the next guy sees
holy crap now Japanese Yan is increasing
even faster he has to buy back he pushes
the price up and then you have this like
liquidation Cascade everyone who is who
has been doing this Carriage Trade are
now fully wrecked they have to buy back
the Yen they push the Yen higher which
means that everyone now has to buy back
the Yen and so when they buy it back
what do they do they sell other assets
tech stocks uh other stocks like Korean
stock market is wreck they have to sell
I mean basically whatever asset they
have they have to sell it to to pay back
the the Yen loan now this guy Jonathan
he explains it in in in a thread you can
read it also but this is the gist of it
and um we are now seeing this unraveling
of the Japanese Yen so there's a double
Wham for Yen borrowers your loan now
siing is higher because Japanese
increases in value itself as everyone is
trying to buy it back and also interest
rat is high because the Central Bank
increased the interest rate which kind
of started this rush back into the Yen
and everyone is buying it back so the
result caused some traders to sell their
assets and repurchase yen in order to
buy back to pay back their loan but that
buy pressure against the Yen sends it up
further exactly what we just said it's
funny in crypto we see this reflexive
Dynamics play out over and over again
this is basically how Terra got Unbound
well also because it wasn't really like
theoretically it was flawed also I'm not
sure we can compare compare to ter but I
mean you at the point they borrow they
thought that Japan would have zero
interest interest forever it apparently
not now Japan accounts for approximately
10% of the global cryptocurrency Ching
volume today Japanese stock market is
stanking today vicious price action in
Bitcoin and ALS everyone is wrecked
congrats uh we're we're back to I mean
we're back to McDonald's guys what can I
say we're we're currently we're heading
to McDonald's and this also interesting
like some people are this was never
about AI the fact that all of the AI
stocks have been pumping like hell
during High interest rate environment
it's an interesting thought that you
know Nvidia was the mfing mfing poster
child of the car TR I mean it is
interesting because a lot of T stocks
have been doing quite well during the
even high interest rates so the question
is why is it because you could get cheap
money from Japan and invest maybe maybe
maybe not but all of this is coming down
quite quickly uh now markets in turmoil
James saying Bitcoin down jump so jump
trading hedge fund they dump they dumped
older is kind of in a pany I mean they
they really dumped it on a weekend also
with low liquidity probably they're
facing some kind of liquidation or some
kind of issue maybe they were also
involved in this Japan thing or they're
also investigated by the US authorities
for their involvement in Luna could also
be that that they need to shut down
everything Japan down nearly 4% China
down 3.5% Futures wef tomorrow is
looking like a real bloodb so yeah when
when the US market is open it's going to
be crazy guys and uh yeah let's see
what's gonna happen you have Iran Israel
you have the UK situation which is
getting crazy by the way this UK thing
wouldn't surprise me if it happens in
other countries like in Sweden and other
because like the it's the same like it's
the same issue the same like social
Dynamic it's it's very similar so uh you
have this you have all of this Japan
stuff we just said but also this uh a
bit of a tension in the UK so to say the
least next you have World War III
looming Market crashing UK US election
Buckle I mean buckle up guys buckle up
now the thing is likely likely it is
short term but uh who knows let's see
Middle East potential War jump jump
dumping everything stock market wiped
out the whole crypto market value in one
session exactly I mean is dumping like
hell in the in the Asia mongos repayment
Trump going 70 plus per exactly another
thing is that Trump is losing the the
likelihood to win to Kamala US economic
economy numbers wct Civil War starting
in UK well in quotation mark exactly
ination Mark um Yan carry trade dumping
hard exactly so all in all As you can
see there's a lot of blood on the
streets and what do we do when there's a
lot of blood on the streets we keep it
simple we keep it calm we plan for the
future we make the bets and look here
this means that some something is
breaking like what we're seeing right
now is something is breaking and the FED
will have to step in it's inevitable
they they they will have to step in
because they're now too slow to decrease
interest rate and like Marcy is saying
will yell and call an emergency meeting
tomorrow and print 10 trillion to stop
the US Stock Market crash we all started
coming but we were like to Jerome lied
Janis lied if you trust anyone in the
government today you're blind and then
you have the update Japanese Market yeah
worse than history Korean so yeah I mean
they will likely start printing that's
why the similarity to 2020 is very very
exact it's very St because what happened
after this covid panic because this
happened due to covid panic it was kind
of a black SW back then so so what's
likely to happen money printing that's
why the the best I mean not over
exaggerating but the best time to buy in
the last cycle it was this this day it
was this day because yeah it was here it
was this day okay and then we Boop went
up so that's the situation and we do get
a repetition of that at least very close
and sasala saying if jump trading is
actually fully existing the crypto
ecosystem then this is one of the most
bullish things to happen in a long time
they've been a complete parasite to
crypto for years and the industry will
be much better without it I mean
probably probably they've been they've
been in Luna and all of that listen guys
I have to go I have to go so we have a
short short one today but I feel we have
communicated all of the side guys you
now know what is happening we're getting
wrecked but it's also an opportunity the
Japan thing you know everything you know
you you know everything you smash up the
like you subscribe and we will be back
during the week but I am uh I'm away for
like until Friday I'm away until Friday
and also like the Friday also um so
let's see what's going to happen we're
going to be a bit ad hoc ad hoc
recording we're going to be at an
offsite with our with our team but I
will keep you guys updated see you all
very very soon subscribe and goodbye
guys goodbye goodbye goodbye
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