How powerful is Iran really? | Mapped Out
Summary
TLDRThe video script delves into Iran's geopolitical strategies, highlighting its use of proxy militias, drones, and its nuclear program to assert regional power despite internal fragility. It examines Iran's alliances, particularly with Russia and China, and its 'Axis of Resistance' against the US and Israel. The script also discusses the regime's challenges, including economic sanctions, declining popular support, and the impact of its nuclear ambitions on domestic stability.
Takeaways
- 🌏 Iran is perceived as a regional power with involvement in numerous conflicts and support for militia groups across the region.
- 💥 Despite projecting an image of strength externally, Iran's internal situation is described as fragile, with the regime maintaining power through various strategies.
- 🤝 Iran's geopolitical position is advantageous, being situated between the Middle East and Asia, with Russia to the north and major trade routes to the south.
- 🏝️ Iran feels isolated due to its Shia Muslim majority, surrounded by Sunni-majority countries, including its main rival, Saudi Arabia.
- 📢 Iran's regime, led by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is anti-Western and considers the US and Israel as its main enemies.
- 🛡 Iran uses proxy militias, such as the Houthi rebels in Yemen, to destabilize the region and conduct attacks, including on commercial ships in the Red Sea.
- 💣 Iran's support for militias extends to providing intelligence, drones, and missiles, which have significant impacts on global maritime security.
- 🚁 Iran's drone technology, developed in response to international sanctions, is exported to various countries and has been used in conflicts, including in Ukraine.
- 🗡 Iran possesses a large and diverse missile arsenal, which it has used in attacks against Israel, demonstrating its military capabilities.
- ⚔️ Iran's nuclear program is a significant aspect of its strategy, serving as a deterrent and a bargaining chip in international negotiations.
- 🏛️ The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is a key component of Iran's military and plays a central role in the country's external and internal strategies.
- 📉 Iran faces domestic challenges, including declining popular support for the regime, economic issues due to sanctions, and widespread protests against the government.
Q & A
What is the primary concern of Iran's involvement in various conflicts?
-Iran's involvement in conflicts is primarily a projection of power externally, while internally it is extremely fragile, aiming to maintain its grip on power and influence in the region.
How does Iran's geographical position contribute to its strategic advantages?
-Iran is strategically located between the Middle East and the rest of Asia, with Russia to its north and major global trading routes to its south, providing a good setup for an oil-rich country aspiring to be a regional power.
Why does Iran feel insecure despite its strategic location?
-Iran feels insecure due to its isolation in the region, lacking strong regional alliances, and being surrounded by countries with a Sunni majority, contrasting its Shia Muslim population.
Who is Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and what is his role in Iran?
-Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, holding this position for the last 35 years and playing a central role in ruling the country.
What is the significance of Iran's support for proxy militias?
-Iran's support for proxy militias allows it to destabilize the region and attack its perceived enemies, such as Israel, while keeping the conflict away from its own borders.
How have the Houthi rebels impacted global maritime security?
-The Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, have attacked and sunk commercial ships in the Red Sea, leading to increased insurance costs and ships avoiding the Red Sea, which impacts global maritime security and can affect the cost of goods globally.
What role do drones play in Iran's military strategy?
-Drones are a significant part of Iran's military strategy due to their low cost, low-tech nature, and effectiveness. They are barely detectable by radar and can carry warheads, making them a valuable tool for both domestic and international operations.
How has Iran's drone technology impacted international relations, particularly in Europe?
-The use of Iranian drones in the war in Ukraine has been sobering for European policymakers, making Iran relevant to a region beyond its traditional sphere of influence and highlighting the need to address the implications of such technology.
What is the purpose of Iran's nuclear program from the regime's perspective?
-From the regime's perspective, Iran's nuclear program serves multiple purposes: it projects an image of power, acts as a deterrent against perceived threats from the West, and serves as a bargaining chip in negotiations with Western powers.
How has the 'Turn to the East' strategy affected Iran's international relations?
-The 'Turn to the East' strategy has led to a more strategic relationship with China and Russia, deepening Iran's ties with these non-Western powers and potentially positioning Iran as part of a new world order where non-Western powers are on the rise.
What challenges does the Iranian regime face internally?
-The Iranian regime faces challenges such as declining popular support, economic sanctions due to its nuclear program, and widespread protests sparked by issues like corruption, poverty, and a lack of freedom.
Outlines
🏖️ Geopolitical Positioning and Internal Fragility of Iran
The script discusses Iran's perceived power and its involvement in regional conflicts, including funding militias and direct attacks on Israel. It highlights the contrast between Iran's external projection of strength and its internal vulnerabilities. The country's strategic geographical position between the Middle East and Asia, with Russia to the north and major trade routes to the south, is contrasted with its feelings of isolation due to a lack of regional alliances and a predominantly Shia population surrounded by Sunni-majority nations. The rivalry with Saudi Arabia and the influence of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, are underscored. The Iranian revolution's anti-Western sentiment and the current regime's rhetoric against the US and Israel are also covered, along with the use of proxy militias and disruptive tactics such as drones and the nuclear program.
🤝 Iran's Proxy Militias and Strategic Disruption
This paragraph delves into Iran's support of proxy militias, exemplified by the Houthi rebels in Yemen, which have been responsible for attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea. The paragraph explains how Iran's provision of intelligence, drones, and missiles has enabled such groups to become significant destabilizing forces. The economic impact of these attacks, including increased insurance costs and rerouting of shipping, is also discussed. The paragraph further explores other militias supported by Iran, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, and their role in escalating conflicts with Israel. The narrative includes Iran's denial of direct involvement in specific attacks, yet its praise for Palestinian resistance, highlighting the regime's complex approach to maintaining influence and avoiding direct conflict.
🛰️ Iran's Military Arsenal and Nuclear Ambitions
The script examines Iran's military strategies, focusing on its drone technology and missile arsenal. Despite international sanctions, Iran has developed low-cost, low-tech drones that are effective and difficult to detect. The country's export of drones to various nations and their use by Russia in the war against Ukraine is noted. The paragraph also discusses Iran's missile launches towards Israel in 2024, marking the first direct attack and serving as a demonstration of power and determination. The ambiguity surrounding Iran's nuclear program is explored, with the country claiming peaceful intentions while the international community questions its true aims. The strategic value of the nuclear program as a deterrent and bargaining chip in negotiations with the West is highlighted.
🔄 Iran's International Relations and Domestic Challenges
This paragraph explores Iran's shifting international relations, particularly its 'Turn to the East' strategy, which involves strengthening ties with China and Russia. The role of China as a major buyer of Iranian oil and the strategic partnership with Russia are emphasized. Iran's participation in joint naval drills with Russia and China, and its recent joining of the BRICS economic bloc, indicate its vision for a new world order with declining US influence. However, the paragraph also notes that China and Russia maintain a cautious distance from Iran. Domestically, the regime faces declining popular support and widespread protests over issues such as corruption, poverty, and lack of freedom. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is identified as a key internal and external force supporting the regime's strategies. The paragraph concludes by questioning the sustainability of the regime's grip on power, given its complex international and domestic situation.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Iran
💡Proxy militias
💡Nuclear program
💡Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
💡Drones
💡Missiles
💡Supreme Leader
💡Strategic alliances
💡BRICS
💡Deterrence
💡Internal fragility
Highlights
Iran's projection of power externally while internally being fragile.
Strategies the Islamic Republic has mastered to maintain power.
Iran's geopolitical position between the Middle East and Asia with strategic allies and trading routes.
Iran's sense of insecurity and isolation due to lack of regional alliances.
Iran being the largest Shia Muslim country surrounded by Sunni majority neighbors.
Rivalry with Saudi Arabia for dominance in the Muslim world.
The role of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as the Supreme Leader of Iran.
Anti-Western sentiment rooted in the Iranian revolution and history of foreign meddling.
Use of proxy militias by Iran, such as the Houthi rebels in Yemen.
Impact of Houthi attacks on global maritime security and economic costs.
Support of various militias by Iran, including Hezbollah, as part of the 'Axis of Resistance'.
Iran's development and export of drones as a response to international sanctions.
International significance of Iran's drone use in the war in Ukraine.
Iran's missile arsenal and its use as a deterrent and bargaining chip.
Iran's nuclear program and its potential as a source of power and instability.
Shift in Iran's strategy with a 'Turn to the East', focusing on relationships with China and Russia.
Iran's participation in joint naval drills with Russia and China, signaling a new world order vision.
Reliance on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) for internal and external strategies.
Decline in popular support for Iran's authoritarian regime and the impact of protests.
The regime's challenge to improve the economy under sanctions while maintaining the nuclear project.
Assessment of Iran's power and the effectiveness of its disruptive strategies.
Transcripts
Iran looks pretty powerful.
It’s somehow involved in a lot of conflicts.
The Iranian regime is funding militia groups across the region.
And even launched a direct attack on Israel –
something that used to be off-limits.
But how much of it is just for show?
It projects an image of power externally, whereas internally it
is extremely fragile.
Still Iran's leaders maintain their grip on power.
How?
We’ll look at key strategies the Islamic Republic has mastered.
And we’ll try to figure out: how powerful is it really?
Iran is sandwiched between the Middle East and the rest of Asia.
To its north, Russia – a strategic ally.
And to the south,
major global trading routes –
looks like a pretty good set-up
for an oil-rich country
pushing to be a regional power.
But...
Iran feels extremely insecure,
isolated in that part of the world,
really doesn't have much
in terms of regional alliances.
This is political economist Sara Bazoobandi.
She grew up in Iran and has worked on Iranian issues for over 20 years.
A quick look at the map can explain
that feeling of isolation: Iran is
the country with the largest
Shia Muslim population in the world.
But all of these neighboring
countries have a Sunni majority –
which is another,
much larger, branch of Islam.
Among them is Iran’s
main rival, Saudi Arabia.
Both are vying for dominance
in the Muslim world.
Iran is even ruled by a cleric:
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who has been
the Islamic Republic’s “Supreme Leader” for the last 35 years.
The Iranian revolution created the Islamic Republic in 1979.
It was anti-Western at its core, after a history of British and US
meddling in the country.
That’s another story.
Today, we often see rallies like these in Tehran, transporting
the rhetoric of the Iranian regime.
Since the revolution, it has considered the US and Israel
its main enemies.
And both have targeted Iran.
Qassem Soleimani, a top Iranian general, was assassinated in 2020 –
by the US.
He’s become a martyr for the Iranian regime.
And Israel is believed to be behind this attack.
Seven military officials were killed in an airstrike on
an Iranian consulate in Syria.
Iran is using these disruptive tactics:
proxy militias, drones and
its nuclear program.
A lot to unpack there.
But let’s start with
Iran’s support of proxy militias.
In recent months, Houthi rebels
have attacked and sunk commercial ships
in the Red Sea,
killing several crew members.
The Houthis are a militia group based in Yemen –
and they’re backed by Iran.
They reportedly use
Iranian intelligence – and
its drones and missiles.
Like Iran, the Houthis
consider Israel an enemy.
They say the attacks on ships are
a response to Israel’s war against
Hamas in Gaza.
With the help of Iranian drones,
a group like Houthis with very little
resources managed to become a
key instabilizing factor that really
brought the maritime, global maritime security to the brink of a crisis.
Before the attacks, around a third of the world’s container traffic passed
through the Red Sea.
Since the attacks started, insurance costs for ships have skyrocketed.
Many ships are now avoiding the Red Sea altogether.
And taking this – much longer – route to get to Europe.
An expensive detour – that could even drive up the cost of groceries in
your local supermarket.
Other militias include the powerful Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Clashes between Israel and Hezbollah have escalated at the border.
And there are other militant groups in Iraq, Syria, and Bahrain.
And Hamas in the Palestinian territories, which many analysts
don’t consider a proxy per se, but which gets funding, weapons and
training from Iran.
Hamas is considered a terrorist organization by the US and the EU.
The militant group launched an attack on Israel on October 7th, 2023, after
which Israel retaliated with a full-scale invasion and
bombardment of Gaza.
Iran denied being involved in the planning of
the October 7th attack.
But this is what its Supreme Leader said about it:
We kiss the foreheads
and upper arms of the intelligent
and brave Palestinians who planned
these attacks against the Zionist regime.
Iran describes these groups as the “Axis of Resistance” against
Israel, the US and the West as a whole.
But ultimately maintaining all of
these operations which requires
a lot of leadership and it
requires a lot of resources.
So, managing the proxies doesn't
come cheap – but for now,
it’s worth it for the Iranian regime.
Iran can attack Israel and
destabilize the region while keeping
conflict away from its own borders.
Drones are another part of Iran’s playbook.
Due to international sanctions,
Iran lacks access to advanced
technology available elsewhere.
So, it started designing and producing drones, which are
relatively low-cost and low-tech.
But they are effective – barely detectable by radar and
can carry warheads.
Iran says it is exporting drones and drone technology
to more than 20 countries,
including Tajikistan, Armenia, Sudan, Ethiopia,
Venezuela and Algeria.
…and Russia is using Iranian drones in its war against Ukraine.
It has put Iran on
the international map.
You know, use of Iranian drones in
Europe, in the war in Ukraine, was
quite sobering for many policymakers, especially in Europe.
It has made Iran relevant to a region beyond its traditional
realm of influence.
And then there is Iran’s large and diverse missile arsenal.
Iran and its proxies launched hundreds of missiles and drones
towards Israel in 2024.
Iran’s first direct attack on Israel ever.
Iran said it was retaliation for the deadly airstrike on an Iranian
consulate in Syria that we mentioned earlier.
Israel and its partners intercepted almost all of the barrage.
In part because Iran clearly signaled its plans ahead of time.
So, the attack did little actual damage on the ground.
The principal matter is that Iran
and its armed forces have displayed
their power and determination in
an important international arena.
This display of force has happened and that is what matters.
Iran is maintaining a delicate balance: ttempting to show strength
while trying to avoid outright conflict.
This is Kamran Matin.
He’s an international relations lecturer and has
researched Iran extensively.
These strategies rather than being
intrinsically offensive, they are
supposedly defensive because Iran
thinks that the West is trying to
overthrow the regime at any, you know, opportune moment
so these are seen as deterrents.
And deterrence is at the core of Iran’s strategy.
Which leads us to Iran’s nuclear program.
These are Iran’s key nuclear facilities.
The Iranian regime has repeatedly
said they are used for research and
to produce energy.
But do they?
The Iranian nuclear project produces
more or less zero electricity and
energy at the moment.
So, is Iran building nuclear weapons?
The truth is: we don’t know.
But even the idea that Iran might become a nuclear power
is valuable for the regime.
It projects stability for Iranians’
military and security agenda.
And it makes it very difficult
to confront Iran.
The nuclear project becomes
a bargaining chip, if you like, in
Iran's negotiations with the West
aimed at removing the sanctions or
improve its standing in
the international arena.
And for a while, that’s what happened.
The nuclear deal between Iran and major world powers
offered sanctions relief.
In return, Iran had to limit its nuclear enrichment.
But then Donald Trump, as US president, withdrew
from the agreement.
A turning point.
Iran began a new strategy which Iranian political elite
call “Turn to the East”.
And this turn to the East means, or has meant, a much more strategic
relationship with China and Russia.
China is the top buyer of Iranian oil.
And Iran and Russia have
a deepening strategic partnership.
But it goes further:
this is Iran, Russia and China
conducting joint naval drills.
Iran has been very clear that it
has a vision for a new world order.
In that new world order,
the US power is declining.
Therefore, the non-Western powers
are on the rise.
Iran has recently joined BRICS – an economic bloc that aims to be
an alternative to major Western powers.
But Iran can’t fully rely on these countries.
China and Russia have cleverly kept Iran at the doorstep, you know, kept
Iran at the arm length, bring Iran when it serves their interest.
So, the Iranian regime pretty much only trusts itself.
It relies on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps IRGC
that exists in parallel to the conventional Iranian military and
is better resourced.
The IRGC is key to all the strategies we’ve looked at –
outside the country.
But also, inside.
And that’s where Iran’s repressive leadership starts to look weak.
Every authoritarian regime relies on a certain level of popular support,
and that level of popular support in Iran has been significantly declining
over the past decades.
And I think that is one of the most
dangerous issues that are going
against the stability of the regime.
In 2022, the death of Jina Mahsa Amini while she was in police custody
sparked protests across the country.
At first, protests focused on solidarity with Amini and demands
for women’s rights.
But they quickly became about more: corruption, poverty and
a lack of freedom.
The regime has crushed any dissent.
But the protests exposed cracks in its power.
In order to pacify this extremely angry society,
Islamic Republic needs
to improve the economic situation,
but it can't because it's under
sanctions, because of
its nuclear project.
But it doesn't want to give up
the nuclear project because it sees
it as an insurance for its survival.
This complex relationship with outside and inside has created
this endemic crisis in Iran.
So, what can we learn from all this?
Iran is not as powerful as it would like to be.
But as a whole, its strategies are effective.
Iran knows how to disrupt and destabilize for its own gains -- and
away from its own borders.
How long can the regime maintain its grip on both,
in the region and domestically?
As long as the country is led by religious hardliners,
things are unlikely to change.
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