Bitcoin: $90,000 In 2024

Summary

The script discusses Bitcoin's approach to a significant target price near $72,000, supported by meta signal setups and HPDR analysis. It suggests a potential breakout from the $60,000 to $70,000 consolidation phase, with the median HPDR at $71,200 aligning with the target. The video also touches on the historical tendency of Bitcoin to close positively on Mondays and the possibility of a bullish pattern confirmation. The speaker anticipates a decisive movement in the coming weeks, with technical indicators hinting at an upward trajectory.

Takeaways

• 🚀 Bitcoin is approaching a significant target price of around $72,000, which is part of a larger meta signal setup from early July.
• 🎯 Targets one and two have already been met, and the focus is now on the short-term and medium-term analysis, especially in relation to the HPDR (Histogram Price and Volume Relationship).
• 📉 The HPDR analysis suggests that Bitcoin is likely to test its median line, currently at $71,200, which aligns closely with the target from the meta signal setup.
• 🔄 A break above the median on a weekly closing basis could catalyze the next major breakout for Bitcoin, potentially ending the four-month consolidation period around $60,000 to $70,000.
• 📍 If the breakout does not occur, there's a possibility of a pullback to a higher low, possibly around $62,500, which is the bottom end of the 382 level.
• 📈 The HPDR is showing signs of a potential upward movement as the histogram is about to cross into positive territory, favoring a break above the current resistance.
• 🌟 Mondays have historically been strong for Bitcoin, with a 66-67% probability of closing positively and an average positive return of over 3.5%.
• 📊 The script also mentions a descending broadening wedge pattern, which, if confirmed by a breakout above June highs (around $72,000), could imply a target as high as $90,000.
• 📈 Weekly momentum indicators are suggesting an upside continuation, with the 5-day Jewel and 5-day RSI showing bullish signals, and the weekly RSI approaching the bullish control zone.
• 📅 The script anticipates significant price action within the next 10 days, with a higher probability of a breakout occurring within the first 5 days of this period.
• 📝 The speaker also promotes a crypto school with a sign-up deadline approaching, indicating it's a time-sensitive opportunity for interested individuals.

Q & A

What is the current status of Bitcoin in relation to its target numbers?

Bitcoin is nearing its target number three, which is just under $72,000. This comes after target numbers one and two have already been met.

What major meta signal setup is being discussed in the script?

The script discusses a meta signal setup that fired off about a week and a half ago, which is closely related to Bitcoin's current trajectory and its approach towards the target numbers.

What is the significance of the median in the HPDR analysis?

In the HPDR analysis, the median is a significant level that Bitcoin is being magnetized towards. A test of this median, currently at $71,200, is likely in the coming weeks, which aligns with the target number three from the meta signal setup.

What does a break above the median in the HPDR analysis imply for Bitcoin?

A break above the median in the HPDR analysis, specifically a weekly closure above the median, is likely to catalyze the next real breakout for Bitcoin, potentially ending the four-month consolidation around the $60,000 to $70,000 region.

What is the potential downside if Bitcoin does not close above the median?

If Bitcoin does not close above the median, there is a possibility that it could come back down for a higher low, possibly around $62,500, which is the bottom end of the 382 level.

What is the significance of Monday in the context of Bitcoin's trading patterns?

Monday has been identified as the most likely day to close positively from open, with a 66-67% probability. This has been validated with historical data, suggesting that a positive close on Monday could push Bitcoin towards new highs.

What is the Monday strategy and how does it perform historically?

The Monday strategy involves opening a position at 00 UTC on Monday and closing it at 10:00 a.m. UTC on Tuesday. Historically, this strategy has a winning probability of just above 51% and an average winning trade of about 3.5%.

What is the descending broadening wedge pattern mentioned in the script?

The descending broadening wedge is a technical pattern marked by the same highs followed by descending lows on declining volume. This pattern is not confirmed until a breakout above the highs of June, which is about $72,000.

What is the potential target if Bitcoin confirms the weekly close above the median HPDR?

If Bitcoin confirms the weekly close above the median HPDR, the top side of the HPDR on the weekly, which is currently at $86,000, could be a target. This could also be the first week Bitcoin closes above the median since April.

What are the implications of Bitcoin's 5-day and weekly momentum indicators?

The 5-day and weekly momentum indicators are showing positive signs. The 5-day Jewel is continuing with its upside momentum, and the 5-day RSI is reaching for the bullish control zone. The weekly momentum is also expected to continue to the upside, suggesting a bullish trend.

Outlines

00:00

🚀 Bitcoin's Approach to Major Target Amidst Meta Signal Setup

The video discusses Bitcoin's movement towards its third target, which was set off by a meta signal at the beginning of July. The target is close to $72,000, while the first two targets have already been met. The speaker analyzes Bitcoin's trajectory, noting its alignment with the median of the HPDR analysis on a weekly time frame, currently at $71,200. The video suggests that a weekly close above this median could trigger a significant breakout from the $60,000 to $70,000 consolidation phase. However, until this happens, there's a possibility of a pullback to around $62,500. The speaker also touches on the historical performance of Bitcoin on Mondays, suggesting a high probability of a positive close, which could push Bitcoin towards new highs.

05:01

📊 Analyzing Bitcoin's Patterns and Potential Breakout

This paragraph delves into the technical analysis of Bitcoin's price action, highlighting a descending broadening wedge pattern that could lead to a breakout above $72,000, with an implied target of $90,000. The speaker also discusses the potential for a weekly close above the median HPDR, which is currently at $86,000, and the significance of Bitcoin maintaining above this level for a sustained bullish trend. The discussion includes the possibility of a pullback to set a higher low before another attempt at breaking out, and the importance of the 5-day Jewel and RSI indicators showing positive momentum. The paragraph concludes with an anticipation of a bullish engulfing pattern confirmation if Bitcoin closes above $72,000, and the importance of the monthly momentum turning positive for continued upside movement.

10:02

📈 Upcoming Crypto School Enrollment and Bitcoin's Positive Outlook

The final paragraph wraps up the video with a note on the potential for a breakout in August, contingent on Bitcoin's performance in the remaining days of the trading month. The speaker encourages viewers to sign up for the second cohort of a crypto school, which is about to start in a few days, emphasizing that it's free to join with an exchange account and no credit card required. The video concludes with well-wishes for the viewers and an expression of hope to see them in the next video.

Keywords

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that operates without a central bank or single administrator. It is the first and most well-known cryptocurrency and is often used as a benchmark for the entire crypto market. In the video, Bitcoin's price movement and analysis are central to the discussion, with the speaker discussing its nearing of a target price and its potential future trajectory.

💡Meta signal

A meta signal in the context of the video refers to a technical analysis indicator that is derived from a combination of other signals or patterns. It is used to predict future price movements in financial markets. The speaker mentions that a major meta signal setup has been triggered, which is closely related to Bitcoin's current and potential price levels.

💡Target number three

In technical analysis, a target refers to a projected price level where a trader anticipates a reversal or significant change in trend. 'Target number three' in the script is one of the specific price levels that the speaker anticipates Bitcoin might reach, which is just under 72,000 dollars, based on the analysis conducted.

💡HPDR analysis

HPDR likely stands for 'Historical Volatility Distribution Range,' which is a technical analysis tool used to measure the volatility of an asset over a certain period. In the video, the speaker uses HPDR analysis to predict Bitcoin's price action, particularly its attraction towards the median line, which is a key indicator of potential price movements.

💡Median

In statistics, the median is the middle value in a list of numbers sorted in ascending or descending order. In the context of the video, the median line in HPDR analysis represents a central value towards which the price of Bitcoin is gravitating. The speaker discusses the significance of Bitcoin's price testing this median line.

💡Breakout

A breakout in financial markets refers to the price of a security or index moving beyond a defined technical boundary, often followed by a significant price movement in the direction of the breakout. The speaker anticipates a 'real breakout' for Bitcoin, which would signify a substantial upward movement following a period of consolidation.

💡Confluence

In technical analysis, confluence refers to the alignment of multiple technical indicators or patterns that suggest the same market direction. The speaker mentions 'good confluence' when discussing how different signals and patterns are aligning to support the prediction of Bitcoin's price movement.

💡Magnetized

In the context of the video, 'magnetized' is used metaphorically to describe how the price of Bitcoin is being drawn towards a certain level or pattern, as indicated by the HPDR analysis. It suggests a strong attraction or pull towards a particular price point or trend line.

💡Bullish

Bullish refers to a market condition or sentiment where prices are expected to rise. The speaker uses the term 'bullish' to describe the potential upward movement of Bitcoin's price, particularly in relation to the closing above the median line and the implied targets based on various technical indicators.

💡Descending broadening wedge

A descending broadening wedge is a technical chart pattern that consists of two converging trendlines, one of which is upward and the other downward, typically indicating a continuation of the prevailing trend. The speaker mentions this pattern in relation to Bitcoin's price chart, suggesting that a breakout above the pattern could lead to a significant price increase.

💡Bullish engulfing

A bullish engulfing pattern is a candlestick chart pattern that signals a potential bullish reversal in the market. It occurs when a small red candle is followed by a large green candle that opens lower but closes higher than the previous red candle's open. The speaker suggests that the current month's price action is close to forming a bullish engulfing pattern, which could confirm a bullish trend for Bitcoin.

Highlights

Bitcoin is approaching a significant target price near $72,000, based on a meta signal setup from mid-July.

Targets one and two have already been met, indicating the current target is within reach.

The HPDR analysis shows Bitcoin is being attracted towards the median price of $71,200, aligning with the meta signal setup's target three.

A weekly close above the median could catalyze the next breakout for Bitcoin, potentially breaking the consolidation pattern of the last four months.

There is a possibility of Bitcoin pulling back to around $62,500 for a higher low before a breakout.

The HPDR is about to cross into positive territory, favoring a break above the current median.

Monday has historically been a strong day for Bitcoin to close positively, with a 66-67% probability.

A positive Monday close could push Bitcoin towards new highs, potentially reaching $7,700.

Descending broadening wedge pattern suggests a potential breakout above $72,000, with an implied target of $90,000.

A weekly close above the median HPDR could set a new target of $86,000 for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has not closed above the median since April, indicating a significant bullish breakout if it happens.

The 5-day Jewel and RSI are showing positive momentum, suggesting a bullish control zone is near.

A bullish engulfing pattern is forming on the monthly chart, which could be confirmed with a close above $72,000.

The weekly momentum is turning positive, which could indicate an upward trend continuation.

The 5-day momentum is reclaiming the moving average, suggesting an imminent breakout.

The monthly momentum is also turning positive, reinforcing the potential for an August breakout.

The crypto school's second cohort is opening for registration, with the next live stream in three days.

Transcripts

Bitcoin is nearing Target number three

off of one of the major meta signal

setups that fired off about a week and a

half ago now or sorry actually back

around the beginning of July and in this

case it is very very close now to a

Target that I uh quite literally did not

think was going to be happening or at

least in this time frame which is just

under 72,000 bucks obviously Target

number one and target number two have

been met so in today's video we're going

be extrapolating upon that case in the

more shortterm and medium- term

definitely following up on the hpdr

analysis that we looking at over the

past few days as well and kind of

fitting that into the overall picture

that we have been looking at on this

channel and continue to follow up on the

just general trajectory of Bitcoin here

as it does approach 70,000 bucks yet

again so first things first let's go

over to the hpdr analysis we can see

right here on the weekly time frame for

the hpdr that Bitcoin is using or not

necessarily using but is uh being

magnetized towards the median which is

this sort of uh squiggly line right here

that my cursor is currently tracing uh

that we did say was likely coming into

the last couple weeks off of the

volatility compression which continues

to compress right here so very very

likely we do see a test of this median

probably this week maybe next week in

this case it is officially at 71,200

which is very much in alignment with

that Target number three from The Meta

signal setup based off of uh the 8h hour

setup which is about 71950 so you know I

mean yes they are very very similar to

each other it is 300 different uh $300

difference off but remember that this

this setup fired off when Bitcoin was

trading at like 50 7,100 so this was

quite some time ago so to see these

things start to line up naturally that

is uh good Confluence now of course that

does imply that any sort of a break

above and when I say break I mean a

closure on a weekly basis above the

median here will very likely catalyze

the next real breakout for Bitcoin and

when I say real breakout I mean like a

breakout that has been taking the last

four months of consolidation around this

$60 to $70,000 region so until that

officially happens I don't think it's to

be getting like super super excited in

terms of like immediate volatile massive

breakout but of course you know it is

well it's it's right there it's right

there it's right there until then until

that is actually closed above there is

still a possibility that Bitcoin could

come back down for perhaps one more try

for a higher low in this case I would

say anywhere around 62,500 the bottom

end of the 382 level right here would be

fair game but for right now obviously a

test towards a medium is Mo is most

likely in these next week or two worth

the price action and technically

speaking just based off of the way that

the HP is positioned right here which is

about to cross over into positive

territory you know that does certainly

favor um an actual break above that

region thus suggesting that you know uh

a continuation in August is more likely

than a pullback but of course until that

actually officially happens nothing is

confirmed it's just you know becoming

more and more likely here moving on from

there of course I do want to follow up

on the Monday strategy Monday has been

the most likely day to close POS

positively from open a closure for

Bitcoin also one of the highest positive

return dates uh days as well um with

over 3 and half% on those positive

closing days of course contrast that

with the negative days which is uh

losing an average of 2% but you know

sorry a lot of caffeine coming up uh but

Monday having a 66 spot 67% probability

close positively since this year began

um looking like it will be validated yet

again here let's see from the current

open what about 3 and 1.2% would look

like and that would actually put Bitcoin

on new highs on the day uh closer

towards 7,700 if it goes exactly for

that average of course there's variance

within that average But ultimately it

wouldn't you know be kind of we would

look at that as uh again if Bitcoin

closed positively as you know somewhere

around there is actually rather likely

of course to the downside we do have uh

you know a nice range in company this

while I do think it's a little bit less

likely that would put Bitcoin down

around yesterday's low about 67,000

bucks now of course we did put this into

an actual setup format where we

literally just created a setup here

using the crown Quant automation service

this guy right here um to back test what

it would look like if you literally just

opened Along on Monday at 00 UTC and

then closed it Tuesday at 10: a.m. UTC

and we found that over the past eight

years of History here now this has been

a winning strategy is it winning every

time no obviously not it's actually just

above a 51% probability to have a

winning trade doing that strategy but

but what's more important about this is

the profit factor and out of

447 um uh total closed trades

well it has returned a nice positive

amount in the in the in the performance

summary right here an average winning

trade of about 3 and a half% so that is

very much in alignment with these stats

that we see from this pain over here so

you know I do think that this Monday is

probably going to be closing positively

and so you know expecting somewhere

around you know 70 70,500 to 71,000

bucks is not out of the question it's

it's within the realm of of of likely

possibilities actually um of course on

the other end it gives us some

interesting information as well if it

were closed negatively uh we do have the

average losing trade which is about 3%

so so of course on the other end uh you

know we would have a sort of objective

way of looking at what the likely

downside is for today but you know with

the way that Monday has kind of opened

up it's looking like upside is is

definitely more likely for today anyways

moving on from there I do want to get

into of course a little Twitter post

that I made earlier for the pattern

enjoyers of this world of which I don't

really consider myself of that variety

but you know to be fair there is a

descending broading wedge right in here

and this is marked off by of course the

same highs essentially followed by these

descending lows right here on declining

volume and when we see something like

that yeah that is technically a pattern

it wouldn't necessarily be confirmed

until you actually break out above the

highs of June which is

about 72,000 bucks on a closing basis

and then technically speaking there is

an implied Target actually all the way

up to 90,000 bucks um I do believe that

might even correlate yes that might even

correlate very well with the weekly over

here now if Bitcoin does confirm the

weekly close above the median

hpdr you know the top side of the hpdr

on the weekly is going to likely be a

Target which

is 86,000 bucks as of right now that can

obviously move up as well and also this

potentially could be the first week that

we even see Bitcoin close above the

medium which has not happened basically

since April so uh we do expect that you

know if and when Bitcoin does uh

actually want to threaten a real bullish

breakout um that Bitcoin will continue

above the median so that' be like the

next sort of major boss if you will

until then there is still a possibility

of a of a pullback could could very

easily look something like this I guess

uh where it spikes up into here comes

back down sets in a higher low you know

something like that and then tries again

definitely possible um I suppose that

will likely have clearity on the

situation maybe this week probably by

next week if there is going to be a

breakout we probably do expect it to

happen sooner rather than later say

within these next couple weeks sooner

obviously better than later um uh but

yes on top of that I believe that the

the 5day the 5-day Jewel continues with

its upside momentum here as well so

another green light alongside 5day RSI

which is reaching for the bullish

control Zone it's not quite there just

yet I think the weekly is the same thing

yeah it's reclaiming the moving average

on this one and the weekly Jewel

actually hasn't even turned uh you know

cyan yet which is that sort of upside

posher but very [ __ ] close there um

which I imagine would very likely follow

through on a breakout thus confirming

you know real a real resolution of this

range again a range that has been in

place for four almost five months

actually let me just count it out um

yeah 1 two 3 four working on month

number five and this month is very close

to being a bullish engulfing at this

point uh very very close

I mean it will be confirmed as a bullish

ENG go if it does close above about

72,000 bucks so got a little bit of work

to do with a couple days left but you

know even just closing like this is

obviously going to be good anything

above that red moving average is going

to be long-term good as that is how all

of our long-term upside markets um

typically continue upwards and onwards

and well I mean I don't think need uh

there needs to be much more said other

than that um I suppose we can get over

here to the weekly momentum uh we can

see that Weekly stoas momentum is going

to officially continue to the upside as

well assuming Bitcoin closes this week

about 59,000 bucks so far so good um the

five day just closed last night as well

for spot price action it's actually

about to reclaim the moving average here

and we'll continue up as long as

bitcoin's about

so I would say sooner rather than later

if this one is going to play out

actually when I look at the 5day yeah we

would expect within the next 10 days of

price action probably within the next 5

days actually from today so between now

and Friday would be the would you know

would be a higher probability and then

you could kind of extend that another 5

days I suppose if it doesn't break out

and it's still kind of hanging around

here you know lingering around this

$70,000 region but um yeah it's going to

be some some big closures coming up we

got the monthly uh as well and monthly

momentum is about to turn up again as

long as bitcoin's above 68,69

looking good Bitcoin looking good um

with just two and a half days left to go

in this trading month so knock on would

but uh anything anything here or higher

is going to look very very very very

like the breakout in um in August so

I'll end the video on that note as

always I want to wish everyone the best

the best I do want to let you know

actually once again that there are just

a couple days left to sign up for the

second cohort of the crypto school here

it starts uh or sorry the next live

stream is on Thursday in 3 days um and

then after that I believe there is no

more signups for this cohort and we do

not have a third cohort planned as of

right now um so if you're interested

check it out uh it is in the link in the

description below it's also free to join

with an exchange account no credit card

required as the statement here suggest

and well I'll leave you on that note as

always I want to wish you the best best

take care much love and see you

hopefully next time