Bitcoin: Don't Ignore This Rejection

Summary

The video discusses Bitcoin's recent price action, highlighting its rejection at the $72,000 level and the implications for short-term trading. The presenter suggests a likely sideways and downward trend, with potential support around $68,500. They also mention a free beginner's trading program and a 14-day free trial of Meta Signals. The long-term outlook remains bullish, with the presenter anticipating a significant opportunity post-pullback, possibly around $64,000 to $65,000. The video also touches on the Dollar Index's impact on Bitcoin and the presenter's skepticism about its correlation with risk-on markets.

Takeaways

• 📉 Bitcoin is currently facing a short-term rejection at a critical moment, which may lead to sideways and downward trading in the near future.
• 📚 The speaker is offering a free beginner's program to teach price action and strategy creation in a beginner-friendly format, with sign-up available in the description.
• 🎥 Weekly live streams will accompany the beginner's program, providing additional learning opportunities.
• 📊 Bitcoin's closing below the 382 level at 7,800 for CME suggests a bearish short-term outlook, with a potential bounce but unlikely breakout.
• 📈 Despite short-term bearish signals, the speaker remains excited about upcoming announcements and believes in long-term opportunities for Bitcoin.
• 🗓 The speaker anticipates a likely sideways and downward movement over the weekend, with a possible bounce attempt on Monday but a more significant breakdown by Tuesday.
• 📉 The speaker suggests that the next support level for Bitcoin could be around $65,000 before any significant recovery attempt.
• 📊 On the daily time frame for CME, Bitcoin has failed to maintain a pivot, indicating a likely short-term correction.
• 📊 The speaker notes that Bitcoin's trading patterns on weekends, particularly Saturdays and Sundays, are typically the least volatile.
• 📈 A long-term bullish view is maintained, with any pullback seen as a potential buying opportunity, especially if Bitcoin remains above recent lows.
• 📊 The speaker discusses the HPD indicator's signal on the 5-day time frame for CME, suggesting positive momentum and potential for significant rallies if the market remains in a bullish cycle.

Q & A

What is the main topic discussed in the video script?

The main topic discussed in the video script is the short-term and long-term implications of Bitcoin's price action, particularly after it was rejected at a critical level, and what this could mean for the upcoming week.

What is the free program being offered by the speaker?

The speaker is offering a free beginner's program that covers their view on price action and how to create and execute trading strategies. It is beginner-friendly and includes live streams.

What does the speaker believe is the likely short-term direction for Bitcoin after the rejection at 72,000?

The speaker believes that Bitcoin is likely to trade sideways and down in the short term after the rejection at 72,000, with a potential bounce attempt but not expecting a breakout from the current region.

What is the significance of the weekly median rejection on the CME chart?

The rejection of the weekly median on the CME chart signifies that the short-term bullish hopes are diminished, and it suggests a higher likelihood of sideways to down movement in the price of Bitcoin.

What is the potential support level for Bitcoin that the speaker mentions?

The speaker mentions that the downside for Bitcoin is likely to be limited around the previous day's wick low, which is approximately $68,500 on the spot price action.

What does the speaker suggest about the volatility on weekends for Bitcoin?

The speaker suggests that weekends, particularly Saturdays and Sundays, are typically the least volatile days for Bitcoin, with half or less of the high-low range compared to other weekdays.

What is the speaker's view on the long-term opportunity for Bitcoin?

The speaker believes that any pullback from the current move in Bitcoin is likely to be a major long-term opportunity, assuming that Bitcoin is still in a bull cycle.

What indicator did the speaker mention observing on the 5-day time frame for CME?

The speaker mentioned observing a signal on the HPD indicator, which crossed the zero read, indicating positive momentum on the 5-day time frame for CME.

What is the speaker's opinion on the correlation between the Dollar Index and other risk-on markets?

The speaker does not like the full-on correlation between the Dollar Index and other risk-on markets, considering it a bad assumption, but acknowledges its importance for the current market move.

What is the speaker's expectation for the range of Bitcoin's price action over the weekend?

The speaker expects the range of Bitcoin's price action over the weekend to be between $70,000 and $68,500, with a possible bounce attempt.

What would make the speaker reconsider their bearish view on Bitcoin's short-term price action?

The speaker would reconsider their bearish view if Bitcoin were to reclaim and close above Friday's high or at least close above $71,500, indicating a rejection of the current bearish trend.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Bitcoin's Short-Term Rejection and Its Impact

The speaker discusses Bitcoin's recent rejection at a critical price point and its implications for short-term price action. They mention a free beginner's program for trading strategies and signal services, and predict a sideways to downward trend for Bitcoin over the weekend, with potential bounces but no major breakouts. The speaker also suggests that the rejection could lead to a long-term buying opportunity, possibly around the $65,000 mark, and notes the significance of the weekly CME rejection on the short-term outlook.

05:00

📊 Analyzing Bitcoin's Market Cycles and Statistical Trends

This paragraph delves into the statistical analysis of Bitcoin's market cycles, focusing on average returns and potential trading ranges. The speaker anticipates a likely sideways movement over the weekend and a possible bounce attempt on Monday, which historically has been a positive day for Bitcoin. They also reference the 5-day CME time frame, highlighting a positive momentum signal that could indicate a significant rally if the market remains in a long-term uptrend. The speaker expresses caution regarding the correlation between the dollar index and risk-on markets, suggesting that it might not be a reliable indicator.

10:01

🚀 Preparing for Potential Opportunities Amidst Market Volatility

The speaker wraps up the discussion by outlining the potential for a bounce and subsequent downside movement in the coming week or two. They provide criteria for changing their bearish outlook, such as a close above Friday's high or a significant price recovery. The speaker also promotes a free beginner's trading program, emphasizing its professional production and suitability for new traders, while noting its limited value for advanced traders already familiar with their strategies.

Keywords

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that operates without a central bank or single administrator. It is the largest of its kind in terms of total market value. In the video, Bitcoin is the primary subject of discussion, with its price action and potential future movements being analyzed. The script mentions Bitcoin's rejection at certain price levels and its implications for short-term and long-term outlooks.

💡Price Action

Price action refers to the movement of a security's price over time, reflecting supply and demand dynamics. It is a technical analysis approach that traders use to make decisions without using any technical indicators. In the context of the video, the speaker discusses Bitcoin's price action, particularly its rejection at certain levels and the potential for sideways or downward trading.

💡Short-term

Short-term typically refers to a period of time ranging from a few days to several weeks in the context of trading and investments. The video discusses the short-term implications of Bitcoin's current price movements, suggesting a potential sideways or downward trend in the immediate future.

💡Long-term

Long-term is the opposite of short-term and usually indicates a time frame of several months to years. The script discusses the long-term outlook for Bitcoin, contrasting it with the short-term analysis and suggesting that despite short-term volatility, there may be long-term opportunities.

💡Rejection

In trading, rejection refers to a situation where the price of an asset fails to break through a certain level and instead moves in the opposite direction. The video mentions Bitcoin's rejection at the $7,200 level, indicating a lack of bullish momentum and a potential for downward price movement.

💡Pivot

A pivot point in trading is a level at which the price of a financial instrument is expected to change direction. The script refers to Bitcoin failing a pivot on Friday's closure below a certain level, suggesting a bearish signal for the cryptocurrency.

💡Volatility

Volatility is a measure of the magnitude of price changes of an asset over time. The video suggests that Bitcoin is currently experiencing low volatility, but there may be an upcoming 'volatility crunch,' implying a period of significant price movement.

💡Median

In the context of the video, the median likely refers to the middle value in a set of data, often used in technical analysis to identify support or resistance levels. Bitcoin is said to have found the median on the daily time frame, which could indicate a potential bounce in price.

💡Bounce

A bounce in trading terms refers to a recovery in the price of a security after a decline. The script suggests that Bitcoin may experience a bounce after finding support at the median on the daily time frame, although it is expected to be followed by another downside attempt.

💡Range

In trading, a range refers to the difference between the high and low prices of a security over a certain period. The video discusses a potential trading range for Bitcoin over the weekend, suggesting that the cryptocurrency is likely to trade within a specific price range.

💡Beginner Trading Program

The script mentions a free beginner's trading program that the speaker is offering. This program is aimed at new traders, teaching them about price action and strategy development in a beginner-friendly format. It is mentioned as a resource for viewers interested in learning more about trading.

💡Meta Signals

Meta Signals likely refers to a trading tool or service that provides signals to traders, which can be used to make informed decisions about buying or selling assets. The video mentions a 14-day free trial of Meta Signals, positioning it as a resource for viewers to enhance their trading strategies.

💡Dixie

Dixie is a slang term for the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. The script briefly discusses the Dollar Index, noting its recent price action and its potential impact on other markets, including Bitcoin.

💡Economic Data

Economic data refers to statistics that are published periodically by governments or financial institutions, providing insights into the health of an economy. The video mentions economic data in the context of its influence on Bitcoin's price, suggesting that certain data releases may have contributed to recent price movements.

💡Market Cycle

A market cycle refers to the recurring pattern of stages that a market goes through, typically including expansion, peak, contraction, and trough. The script suggests that the current market cycle for Bitcoin is not yet complete, but it may be nearing its end, which could have implications for future price movements.

Highlights

Bitcoin is experiencing a short-term rejection which could impact price action in the upcoming week.

A free beginner's program on price action trading strategy will be offered in 2 and 1/2 weeks.

Meta Signals is available free for 14 days.

Bitcoin closed below the 382 level at 7,800 for CME, indicating a likely sideways and down trade.

A short-term bounce is anticipated, but a major breakout is unlikely.

The rejection on the weekly median suggests potential sideways and down movement.

Daily time frame shows Bitcoin found the median, suggesting a likely bounce attempt.

Volatility is expected to increase, indicating a potential price range of 65,000 to 64,000 before stabilization.

Despite short-term corrections, the long-term outlook remains bullish.

A 5-day time frame for CME showed a positive momentum signal, which historically has led to rallies.

The current market cycle is not yet complete, suggesting further long-term opportunities.

The 50% level of the range is just below 65,000, indicating a potential support level.

Saturday and Sunday are typically the least volatile days for Bitcoin trading.

Monday is the most likely day to close positively, with potential for a bounce.

Tuesday is the least likely day to close positively, often seeing negative returns.

The Dollar Index is showing signs of a higher low, which could impact Bitcoin's trajectory.

For a change in the current outlook, Bitcoin would need to reclaim above Friday's high or close above 71,500.

A comprehensive beginner trading program will be released, featuring professional production and clear explanations.

Transcripts

Bitcoin getting rejected at perhaps the

worst moment for the short term and what

does that mean for Price action to come

in the next week as well as does this

change does this rejection change the

long-term look that we've been espousing

on this channel that is the topic of

today as we get into this very nice very

boring very uneventful very nonvolatile

Saturday at least that's what typically

does happen I want to welcome you back

to the a crown crypto Channel I want to

once again speak about the free program

the free beginners program that I'm

going to be offering up starting in

about 2 and 1/2 weeks now there's a sign

up link in the description below it's

100% free it basically goes over in a

very beginner friendly format my sort of

view on price action and how to uh

ultimately create your own strategy

create your own setups and then execute

those of course as well so if you're

interested in such things again it's

freely available to you down there we'll

also be doing some uh some live streams

some weekly live streams for that and

other than that we can just jump right

into this one um should also let you

know you can get meta signals free for

14 days everything's free baby

everything's free and we'll probably

have some more or we will have some more

announcements on Monday which I'm

actually uh very excited about anyways

um first and foremost Bitcoin as we went

over in yesterday's video did indeed

close below the 382 level at 7,800 for

CME thus indicating that Bitcoin once

again reject at 72,000 likely to likely

to trade sideways and down we're very

unlikely to see a breakout from this

region right here Friday needed to close

above that number in order to keep the

short-term bula's hopes alive don't

confuse us however with a likely

short-term bounce in coming you know

probably where Bitcoin is at right now

now if we go over here to spot price

action you can see bitcoin's actually

just uh actually beautifully found the

median on The Daily time frame so likely

a bounce um attempt you know bounce

attempts can come back up and maybe even

test around 70,000 bucks even at the

same at the same time I do suspect that

we probably will see another downside

attempt But ultimately we're not going

to see any sort of major breaks today

Saturday and probably Sunday as well the

downside likely going to be limited

somewhere down around yesterday's Wick

low which is about 68,500 on a spot

price action but going back on over here

to CME I do believe that this last

rejection does hold significant weight

actually in terms of where the long-term

or not the longterm actually sorry

completely wrong term right there uh in

in terms of where the short term is as

of right now why is that because we have

seen well yet another rejection oops

over here on the weekly of the median so

after rejection like that one two three

times very likely going to play out some

sideways and down again that comes in

combination with the daily time frame

over here getting rejected from the

potential breakout levels and uh and

likely indicating that we are going to

see some more volatility crunch some

more volatility crunch which within the

context of of this price action would

imply that um you know Bitcoin comes

back down fills out the you know the

middle of this range so uh in this case

looking somewhere likely around 65,000

bucks before it's all said and done

maybe even 64 somewhere around there but

I do suspect that this is ultimately

going to lead towards a long-term

opportunity now we'll get into that

topic in a second here but I also did

want to go over just just very quickly

the daily time frame daily for CM again

not trading over the weekend so

obviously we're going to have to wait

for these effects to you know likely

play out I would suspect um maybe Monday

Tuesday probably probably Tuesday as

we'll go over in a second but um daily

time frame getting a double dose of the

downside stoas Alla whenever I see

something like this it typically does

have some significant follow through and

uh and obviously Bitcoin did fail that

pivot yesterday on Friday's closure

below 7,400 again this CME right here

not Trading over the weekend um 5day and

weekly still overall okay which does

give some um some hopium to the higher

term time frames but very likely to see

a short-term uh correction play out from

this region now of course as long as

bitcoin's above yesterday's low you know

you can maybe play that game of hopium I

don't think that's very wise personally

in this case but I do know that there

are going to be um people out there

there's also going to be I I can I can

almost assure you that there's going to

be people saying it's a higher low and

as of right now yeah it is a high but I

just very rarely see these things play

out I'm sure people are going to draw

like this and be like it's an ascending

derp right here and I do like my

ascending derps but I don't think this

is the Derp that you're looking for to

be honest um I should also be known that

the 50% of this range comes in just

below 65,000 bucks and you know likely

the next higher low comes somewhere in

this pocket right here keep in mind that

um while we are kind of waiting for the

real trading week to start Saturday

Sunday you know technically speaking a

little bit little bit more in favor of

positive closures here um but these are

very very very very small gains uh or

losses that we have seen on average

since 2024 began and really throughout

the full history of Bitcoin um as we can

see you know Saturday for example is

literally the lowest volatile day

followed by guess what Sunday crazy um

these these typically see like half or

or or or less than half of the high low

range that the other weekdays you know

typically see as you can see in this

pane right here by the way I think we're

just about ready to listen this uh this

indicator we're actually going to come

out with a nice whole package of just

caretaker statistics which I think is uh

I think I think is what I'm most excited

for anyways um yes so for today average

returns as far as getting a range goes

which by the way Friday has worked

incredibly well yet again um we can see

that to the upside from today's open you

know an average of spot 84 so not even

1% would actually put Bitcoin about

70,000 bucks and imagine 1 and a half%

to the downside puts Bitcoin what do you

know back down around yesterday's low so

um that's likely the range for today

probably even the range for Sunday as

well Monday do we see a real bounce

attempt perhaps yes if there's going to

be any sort of in my opinion surprising

res reversal that would be the day for

it to happen again Monday has been the

most likely to close positively day um

for Bitcoin in this segment of the

market cycle and has had some pretty uh

some pretty big positive returns as well

I should say um but uh but it is

followed by of course Tuesday which is

the which is the least likely to close

positively AKA the most likely to close

negatively and also has the biggest

negative returns so you know what am I

kind of looking for

here sideways over the weekend in this

current range 70,000 to

6850 um you know Saturday Sunday

probably same thing Monday maybe a

bounce attempt if there's going to be

any sort of surprise in price action

that's where it likely come around

Tuesday likely a actual uh an actual

breakdown after a failed Monday rally

which is exactly what we've seen many

times um throughout the last few months

here since Bitcoin put in its March High

anyways um going back into the more

long-term view let me just pull it up

right here um I did want to hearken back

to something that we uh spoke about on

yesterday's video which was a 5-day time

frame for CME which closed yesterday by

the way as well and we were observing a

signal here on the HPD indicator which

had crossed or yes did certainly confirm

a cross of the zero read indicating you

know positive momentum on this time

frame is starting to be gained so um

I've marked off with the red vertical

bar all of the times that we've seen

this over the past over the past year

and a half here um and these have led on

to some pretty significant rallies the

only time where it did not get any major

continuation was actually uh right here

and now that I recognize it this is on

the wrong bar there we go that's the

right one um but uh but

ultimately pretty good you know

generally speaking and this one's wrong

as well why why am I getting this one

wrong here may maybe I made it on a

different time frame or something like

that uh or was it on the weekly oh it

was on the weekly that's why

my apologies actually did have a right

uh on first glance okay beautiful um but

of course we go back further in time we

can see that when Bitcoin was in a

downside Market in a bare Market um

these sort of signals did not really get

much play I mean they did produce some

significant bounces yes uh but they were

certainly unreliable in the way that

we've seen them in general upside

markets so the Assumption here is that

Bitcoin maintains its long-term upside

Market uh which I I do believe that the

current market cycle is not done um but

I do think that also we're very we're a

lot closer to the end of this Market

cycle than I think most people consider

um and uh in assuming that Bitcoin is

still in a bull cycle you know this

should be a pretty reliable signal for

CME which did officially print um as of

yesterday's closure so you know looking

at this right here yeah I'm inclined to

say you know long-term whatever pullback

that we get from this current move is

likely a major major opportunity so of

course that begs question how far does

it pull back you know again um I think

somewhere around the 50% anywhere

between the 50% level and the 618 it's

going to be fair game um you know

there's going to at least be an attempt

of the 382 iect in the mid

66s um you know probably for another try

for a bounce but I don't think that's

the bounce you're going to be looking

for a lot more likely we see some down

around tier and this current segment

gets drawn out further so um you know if

we're going to see a move probably later

in June rather than earlier in June uh

again I really if if we're going to see

an early move in June yesterday was

really the day for that one to um to to

make a legitimate attempt instead we got

an actual rejection so um on top of that

it should also be known that based off

yesterday's economic data which I

[ __ ] hate talking about um and I also

hate talking about this asset as well if

you can even call it that uh Dixie

seemingly digging itself in and putting

in um yet another higher low now I you

you probably haven't heard me talk too

much about Dixie in quite some time just

the dollar Index right here um that's

because I I think it's extremely

difficult to analyze um just because

it's it's it's contingent upon so many

different things that you know are

unforeseen events um but but at the end

of the day you know this that was kind

of its chance to break down too uh this

past week and instead of breaking down

it actually is digging in for a higher

low it seems like so you know have to be

uh long-term bullish on this still I

suspect especially the higher term time

frame that I go the more and more that I

think that that becomes obvious so uh so

fair enough I think we'll end things

right there you know I don't like the

the full-on correlate between Dixie and

other risk on markets I think it's a I

think it's a bad uh theosis to be having

but did did want to just mention it very

very quickly um especially for the

current move so um yeah just looking at

Bitcoin back around here again weekend

very likely range plays between 70,000

and 6850

68500 um you know maybe maybe an attempt

for a bounce maybe some hop on on Monday

but assuming that Bitcoin just doesn't

reclaim where where would Bitcoin need

to reclaim in order for me to uh

immediately let go of these the these

Blasphemous views that I've been having

and uh and be looking for some upside I

think the most obvious thing would be I

mean the most obvious thing would be

back above Friday's High um you know

thus Nega getting a rejection but uh I

or on a closing base of 71,500 if you

just want like a full-on number for it

but until that happens um bounces here

in in my opinion are very likely going

to lead towards uh another try to the

downside and that's probably going to be

the real op Unity um the real question

is how far down do things get 64 65 does

it go even lower than that maybe but uh

take it one step at a time bounce is

going to be along the way of course as

well and uh it's really just going to be

a preparation for this next week or two

to come I suspect so I'll end things

right there again you can get uh free

full access to that UPC that upcoming

beginnner trading program in the link in

the description below it's going to be

like highly professionally produced

actually by a team that uh that I'm

working with uh it's actually a banter

which they sent they actually sent out a

guy to my apartment when I was in Dubai

and we made it all together it's

actually it's actually really really

cool it all so really good for me to

like have someone like that uh By My

Side who's like running me through just

like okay uh I like what you're saying

here but this is not going to make sense

to people can you put it in different

terms sure you know there's a lot of

that um which was really really good for

me because I think at this point like

I've just been you know just been doing

this for so long like I I make

assumptions that that I think people

know something

that maybe is not as intuitive as what I

you know you know as what I consider so

that was super useful um again it's gear

Choice beginners if you're if you're a

much more advanced Trader I don't know

how much you're going to get from this

um if you're already in one of my

programs probably also not as well

although you know it's going to be

presented in a more professional man you

know in a more in a more like

Streamlight manner animations gifts all

that good [ __ ] um so uh so perhaps that

you know perhaps that'll be of interest

anyways I'll end things right there as

always I'll wish you the best best take

care much love and see you hopefully

tomorrow