ICT Emini S&P 500 Review / January 03, 2023

Summary

In this video, the speaker discusses market analysis, focusing on the PMI numbers and their impact on trading. They highlight the importance of understanding support and resistance levels, fair value gaps, and market structure to make informed trading decisions. The speaker also emphasizes the need for active chart marking and the role of patience in trading.

Takeaways

• 📈 The speaker was anticipating the PMI numbers release at 9:45 AM and expected a potential market reaction leading to a sell-off.
• 📊 The video discusses the importance of watching for price movements within a specific range and the significance of old highs and volume in balance.
• 🔍 The speaker emphasizes the use of different time frames, from daily to 1-minute charts, to identify trading opportunities and market trends.
• 📉 The concept of 'fair value gap' is highlighted as a key technical analysis tool for identifying potential support and resistance levels.
• 📝 The speaker mentions the importance of marking up one's own charts as a learning tool rather than relying on others' charts.
• 🚫 The video script mentions avoiding 'lazy' approaches to trading and emphasizes the need for personal involvement and effort.
• 💡 The idea of 'consequent encroachment' is introduced as a concept related to the middle of a gap or imbalance, indicating potential market inefficiencies.
• 📌 The speaker identifies specific price levels and gaps, such as the 30-minute fair value gap, as critical areas for trading decisions.
• 📉 The script details a trading strategy involving short positions on fair value gaps and the anticipation of continued downward price movement.
• 📈 The speaker discusses the anticipation of an aggressive rally ('Judas swing') during the PMI numbers release, which did not materialize as expected.
• 📊 The importance of observing market structure shifts and price behavior around specific levels, such as 38.72 and 38.60, for entry and exit points in trades is highlighted.

Q & A

What is the main event the speaker was anticipating in the morning?

The speaker was anticipating the release of the PMI numbers at 9:45 AM.

What was the speaker's initial expectation regarding the market's reaction to the PMI numbers?

The speaker expected the market to 'whip up' and then look for a sell-off after the PMI numbers were released.

What trading strategy did the speaker mention for the day?

The speaker mentioned trading inside a range with a bit more patience, as they were waiting for the market to break out of the range.

Why did the speaker refer to the 'old high' in the context of the daily chart?

The 'old high' referred to the highest point in the trading range from the day's opening, which was used as a reference for potential resistance.

What is the significance of the '60 Minute chart' mentioned by the speaker?

The '60 Minute chart' was used to observe the market's failure to reach the employment balance on the daily chart and to identify buy-sell liquidity.

Why did the speaker choose to use a '30 Minute chart'?

The speaker used the '30 Minute chart' to clearly see the imbalance in the market and to identify potential trading opportunities.

What is a 'fair value Gap' and why is it important in the speaker's analysis?

A 'fair value Gap' is a price area that the market is expected to return to for a repricing; it's important as it provides potential entry and exit points for trades.

What does the speaker mean by 'institutional overflow entry drill'?

The 'institutional overflow entry drill' refers to a trading setup where the market breaks a significant low, indicating a potential institutional entry point.

Why did the speaker emphasize the importance of marking up one's own charts?

The speaker emphasized marking up charts to enhance understanding and learning, as relying solely on others' charts is considered a lazy approach that won't lead to successful trading.

What was the speaker's trading action on the first trading day of the year?

The speaker went short on two fair value gaps and was looking for continuation down into the levels shared on Twitter.

What was the speaker's strategy regarding the trades if the price went above a certain level?

If the price went above the 39.20 level, the speaker would likely have to close the trades, as it would indicate a change in market structure.