Nifty Prediction and Bank Nifty Analysis for Wednesday | 7 August 24 | Bank NIFTY Tomorrow

Learning Markets With Manish
6 Aug 202420:12

Summary

TLDRThe video script discusses the volatile nature of the stock market, focusing on Nifty and Bank Nifty, and the impact of market manipulation on investors. It highlights the importance of not carrying forward positions due to market unpredictability and emphasizes the value of skill over luck in trading. The speaker also touches on Neeraj Chopra's Olympic qualification and uses it as a metaphor for seizing opportunities in trading. Additionally, the script provides technical analysis, market insights, and advice on managing investments, recommending a book on financial statement analysis for long-term investors.

Takeaways

  • πŸ“‰ The speaker warns of market risks and discusses the volatility experienced in the Nifty and Bank Nifty markets, where the market opened high but closed down significantly.
  • 🚫 Advises against 'carry forward' trading due to the unpredictable nature of market gaps and the importance of relying on skill rather than luck.
  • πŸ… Positive news about Neeraj Chopra qualifying for the Olympics with an impressive shot, highlighting the importance of seizing opportunities in one go, as in trading.
  • ⏳ Emphasizes the need for constant decision-making in trading, suggesting that traders must adapt to different time frames and be aware of market support and resistance.
  • πŸ“Š Shares specific technical levels for Nifty and Bank Nifty, indicating when to avoid shorting the market and when to expect potential bounces or breaks.
  • πŸ“’ Discusses the importance of staying updated with market news and its impact on trading decisions, as exemplified by the all-party meeting called by the government.
  • πŸ“‰ Describes the market's downward trend, noting that mutual funds experienced larger percentage drops than the index, which can significantly affect investors' portfolios.
  • πŸ’‘ Suggests that investors should focus on fundamental analysis of stocks, being unafraid of market crashes if the stocks are fundamentally strong.
  • πŸ“š Recommends the book 'Financial Statement Analysis by Jebral Nath' for understanding financial analysis, which can provide comfort to long-term investors.
  • πŸ“ˆ Provides technical analysis and specific levels for Nifty and Bank Nifty, discussing the importance of certain support and resistance levels and their potential impact on future market movements.
  • πŸ›‘ Cautions about the potential for significant market gaps, especially during the expiry of options, and the importance of being prepared for both bullish and bearish scenarios.

Q & A

  • What market event was discussed as being risky in the transcript?

    -The learning market, specifically the Nifty and Bank Nifty, was discussed as being in a risky situation due to unexpected market movements and potential scams.

  • What was the market's opening and closing behavior as described in the transcript?

    -The market opened high but closed down, which was seen as a strategy to make people sitting on the top exit their positions.

  • What advice was given regarding carrying forward positions in the market?

    -The advice given was not to carry forward positions because one cannot predict when the gap will be down, and relying on luck can lead to losses.

  • What positive news was shared about Neeraj Chopra in the transcript?

    -Neeraj Chopra qualified for the Olympics, with his first shot being 89.7 meters, indicating a strong performance and high hopes for a medal.

  • What is the recommended approach to trading according to the transcript?

    -The recommended approach is to seize opportunities in one go, rather than leaving them for later, and to focus on skill over luck.

  • What book was recommended for understanding financial analysis?

    -The book recommended for understanding financial analysis is 'Financial Statement Analysis' by Jebral Nath.

  • What is the significance of the 50 dema (50-day moving average) in the context of the Nifty discussed in the transcript?

    -The 50 dema is significant as it acts as a support level for the Nifty. The market has been touching this level and bouncing off, indicating a potential reversal point.

  • What is the impact of the government's all-party meeting on the market as mentioned in the transcript?

    -The government's all-party meeting on the crisis had an immediate impact on the market, causing it to fall after the news of the meeting was released.

  • What is the difference between directional trading and carry-forward trading as implied in the transcript?

    -Directional trading involves making decisions based on the market's direction, often on shorter time frames, while carry-forward trading involves holding positions overnight or longer, which can be riskier.

  • What is the importance of the 100 dema (100-day moving average) for Bank Nifty as discussed in the transcript?

    -The 100 dema is important for Bank Nifty as its closure below this level indicates further weakness and opens the target towards the 200 dema.

  • What is the potential psychological effect on investors when their mutual fund portfolio value drops significantly?

    -A significant drop in the value of a mutual fund portfolio can have a psychological effect on investors, causing fear and uncertainty, especially for those with large portfolios.

Outlines

00:00

πŸ“‰ Market Volatility and Neeraj Chopra's Olympic Qualification

The script discusses the unpredictable nature of the learning market, with a specific focus on Nifty and Bank Nifty. It describes a market scenario where the opening was high, but it closed down, leading to a 'scam' feeling among investors. The speaker had warned against carrying forward positions due to the unpredictability of market gaps. The script also touches on the importance of skill over luck in trading. A positive note is struck with the news of Neeraj Chopra qualifying for the Olympics with an impressive javelin throw. The discussion emphasizes seizing opportunities in one go, as demonstrated by Chopra, and applies this philosophy to trading, suggesting that one should be decisive and prepared to act quickly in the market.

05:00

πŸ“ˆ Market Analysis and the Importance of Timing

This paragraph delves deeper into market analysis, discussing the psychological impact of market fluctuations on investors, especially those with large portfolios. The speaker suggests that mutual funds can be significantly affected by market downturns, leading to substantial losses in a single day. The importance of fundamental analysis is highlighted, with a recommendation for investors to read 'Financial Statement Analysis by Jebral Nath' to better understand financial statements and perform their own analysis. The book is said to cover a range of topics from profit and loss to balance sheets and valuations, which can help investors make informed decisions. The speaker also mentions the need to stay updated with market news and its potential impact on trading.

10:00

πŸ“‰ Technical Analysis of Market Trends

The speaker provides a technical analysis of the market, discussing the significance of the 50-day moving average (Demma) and its role as a support level. They note that the market has been touching this level and bouncing back, indicating a potential reversal. However, a break below this level could signal further downside. The discussion also includes the impact of global markets and the importance of staying informed about institutional buying patterns. Specific levels for potential market moves are provided, with a focus on the importance of being prepared for both bullish and bearish scenarios.

15:03

πŸ† Bank Nifty's Performance and Global Market Influence

This paragraph focuses on the performance of Bank Nifty, noting its closure below the 100-day moving average, which is a bearish signal. The speaker discusses the potential targets and support levels, emphasizing the importance of the 850 level as a key point to watch. They also mention the influence of global markets and the potential for large gaps in the market due to expiring options. The speaker expresses concern about the market's direction on the day of expiration and the impact of option data on market movement.

20:05

πŸ“Š Stock-Specific Analysis and Market Expectations

The final paragraph provides an analysis of specific stocks and commodities, including SDSC Bank, ICC, Bajaj Finance, SBI, INFI, and Reliance. The speaker outlines key levels to watch for each stock and discusses the potential impact of various factors, such as funding of projects in Bangladesh on SBI's performance. They also touch on the performance of HUL and ITC, the bullish momentum in gold and silver due to a weak Indian currency, and the potential for a bullish move in CRUD and natural gas. The speaker ends with a reminder to like the video if viewers find the content useful.

Mindmap

Keywords

πŸ’‘Nifty

Nifty is a term used in the context of the Indian financial market, specifically referring to the Nifty 50 index, which is a basket of the 50 top companies listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. In the video, the speaker discusses the Nifty's performance and its significance in understanding market trends. For example, the speaker mentions 'Nifty has been touching its 50 dema for two days', indicating the use of a 50-day moving average as a technical analysis tool to gauge the index's momentum.

πŸ’‘Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty is an index that represents the banking sector of the Indian stock market, consisting of the top 12 banking stocks listed on the NSE. The video discusses the Bank Nifty's expiry and its impact on the market, as well as its performance relative to the broader market indices. The speaker points out 'Bank Nifty has done a different thing', referring to its unique movement compared to other indices, and its significance in market analysis.

πŸ’‘Expire

In the context of the video, 'expire' refers to the expiration of financial derivatives like options and futures contracts. The speaker talks about the upcoming expiry of Bank Nifty and its potential impact on the market, suggesting that market movements can be influenced by the settlement of these contracts. For instance, the speaker mentions 'Tomorrow we will discuss about Bank Nifty expiry', highlighting the importance of this event in market timing and strategy.

πŸ’‘Straddle

A straddle is an options trading strategy that involves buying or selling a call and put option with the same strike price and expiration date. The speaker in the video talks about implementing a straddle strategy, indicating a market view that anticipates significant price movement but is neutral on the direction. The example given is 'I wrote what I put in the straddle, then I took the straddle on SL', referring to setting a stop loss on the straddle position to manage risk.

πŸ’‘Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is a method used by traders to forecast the direction of prices through the study of historical price patterns and trends. The video script frequently references technical indicators and chart patterns, such as moving averages and support/resistance levels, to analyze market movements. For example, the speaker refers to 'Nifty has been touching its 50 dema for two days', which is an application of technical analysis using the 50-day moving average as a trend indicator.

πŸ’‘Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis involves evaluating a security's intrinsic value by examining financial statements, management quality, industry position, and other factors that may affect its financial health and performance. The speaker in the video recommends a book on financial statement analysis, emphasizing the importance of understanding a company's fundamentals to make informed investment decisions. The speaker states 'I will recommend a book to you. This is Financial Statement Analysis by Jebral Nath', indicating the use of fundamental analysis to assess stocks.

πŸ’‘Stop Loss (SL)

A stop loss order is a tool used by traders to limit their potential loss on a trade by setting a specific price at which the trade will be closed if the market moves against them. In the video, the speaker mentions setting a stop loss on a straddle position, 'I took the straddle on SL', to manage the risk associated with the trade and protect against adverse market movements.

πŸ’‘Carry Forward

Carry forward in trading refers to holding a position in a derivative contract beyond its current expiration date, rolling it over to the next contract month. The speaker advises against carry forward, 'So I have always suggested that don't carry forward', due to the risk of unexpected market gaps and the potential for significant losses.

πŸ’‘Support and Resistance

Support and resistance are levels on a price chart where the price of a security tends to stop and reverse. Support is where the price is expected to find a floor, and resistance is where it is expected to find a ceiling. The speaker discusses these concepts in the context of market levels, 'Don't short the market until it breaks', indicating the importance of these levels for traders to make decisions on entry and exit points.

πŸ’‘Mutual Funds

Mutual funds are investment vehicles that pool money from multiple investors to invest in a diversified portfolio of securities like stocks, bonds, or other assets. The video script mentions the impact of market movements on mutual funds, 'Mutual funds fell by 4, 4, 5, 5%', highlighting how market volatility can significantly affect the value of mutual fund investments and the potential financial implications for investors.

πŸ’‘P/E Ratio

The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) is a valuation ratio calculated by dividing the market value per share of a stock by its earnings per share. It is used to determine if a stock is overvalued or undervalued relative to its earnings. The speaker in the video script refers to P/E ratios in the context of financial analysis, 'how we calculate P&E, ratios', indicating its importance in evaluating a company's stock and making investment decisions.

Highlights

Learning market is in a risk, discussing Nifty and Bank Nifty.

Market opened high and closed down, possibly to make top holders exit.

Suggestion against carrying forward in the market due to unpredictable gaps.

Emphasis on skill over luck in live market trading.

Neeraj Chopra qualifies for the Olympics with an 89.7 meters throw.

Advice to seize opportunities in one go, as seen with Neeraj Chopra's success.

Trading is described as a very dicey thing requiring constant decision-making.

Importance of keeping low hope in trading due to its unpredictable nature.

Discussion on the impact of an all-party meeting on market movement.

Use of straddle strategy and setting stop-loss in trading.

Technical analysis of market support and resistance levels.

Psychological impact of market falls on investors with large portfolios.

Recommendation of a book for financial statement analysis to understand stocks fundamentally.

Nifty's touch and bounce at its 50 dema indicating potential support.

Bank Nifty closing below 100 dema signaling potential weakness.

Analysis of major stock charts and specific levels to watch for potential market movements.

Personal views on gold and silver remaining positive despite global market conditions.

Importance of currency value in affecting gold and silver prices in the Indian market.

Final thoughts on market behavior and the importance of timing in trading.

Transcripts

play00:01

Learning market is in a risk. Today we will discuss about

play00:03

Nifty or Bank Nifty.

play00:04

Tomorrow we will discuss about Bank Nifty expiry.

play00:07

Today what happened in the market, literally people were

play00:10

scammed.

play00:10

It was opened so high and then it was closed down.

play00:13

So I had written in the group in the morning that this

play00:17

thing is being done to make the people sitting on the top

play00:22

exit.

play00:22

So exactly the same thing happened, otherwise there was no

play00:24

purpose to open it so high.

play00:25

After opening it so high, the market came down.

play00:28

So at the end it happened that you opened it so high and

play00:33

then it came down.

play00:34

Those who have carried forward must be stuck.

play00:37

So I have always suggested that don't carry forward because

play00:41

you don't know when the gap will be down.

play00:44

You will get less money in the live market, but what you

play00:47

will get will be from your skills, not from your luck.

play00:49

If you don't get it from your luck, then one day your luck

play00:51

will turn upside down.

play00:52

Anyway, there are a lot of negative things, we will do it.

play00:56

One positive news is that Neeraj Chopra qualified for the

play01:00

Olympics in the final.

play01:02

In fact, his first shot was of 89.7 meters.

play01:06

In 87, he won gold in Tokyo.

play01:09

So yes, the obvious thing is that the competition is

play01:12

running in the range of 89-90.

play01:14

So hopefully, this is our best.

play01:18

And he got it in one chance, he didn't have to try anymore.

play01:22

I don't know how many people do 3-4 attempts.

play01:25

So the same thing should be done.

play01:27

Take whatever opportunity you get in one go, then you will

play01:31

see.

play01:31

There is a lot of world, you don't have to leave an

play01:33

opportunity for the world.

play01:34

So it's good, hopefully, when it will be final on Thursday,

play01:38

there will be a very good hope that a good medal will come.

play01:42

It's a good thing if gold comes, you will be happy.

play01:45

But okay, it's a well-played calculation.

play01:49

And after that, there are many other sports going on.

play01:54

But what happens is that you have very little hope of

play01:57

medals in events.

play01:58

So in the same way, you have to keep very little hope in

play02:02

trading.

play02:02

Because trading has become a very dicey thing.

play02:04

It's not that easy.

play02:06

You have to decide everything, every minute, you have to

play02:09

decide every parameter.

play02:10

Sometimes we have to see the 5-minute time frame, suddenly

play02:14

we have to shift to the one-day time frame.

play02:16

What is going on there?

play02:18

Sometimes you get support from him, sometimes you get

play02:20

resistance from him.

play02:20

Today I tried to help some people, hopefully some people

play02:24

will benefit from it.

play02:25

Let's see what was the discussion in the live market today.

play02:28

So I wrote this in the morning at 8.24, everyone will shout

play02:31

today, we are different.

play02:32

But remember, if there is a fire, everyone will come in his

play02:35

honor.

play02:35

Here our house is not only.

play02:37

Any bounce is an exit opportunity for bulls.

play02:39

It was clear that for bulls, any bounce is an exit

play02:42

opportunity.

play02:44

I wrote that I will give the level after the pre-opening.

play02:48

Then I gave these levels.

play02:50

Then I did this, I know I wouldn't have got the opportunity.

play02:57

I wrote what I put in the straddle, then I took the

play02:59

straddle on SL.

play03:00

But then I wrote this thing that until the market does not

play03:03

break this level.

play03:04

24,300, 50,500, 22,970 and 12,470.

play03:11

Don't short the market until it breaks.

play03:14

Then nifty broke 400 points from here, bank nifty broke 800

play03:18

points from here.

play03:19

And nifty broke 300 points from here.

play03:21

And mid-cap nifty also broke from there.

play03:24

Means that also broke.

play03:25

So it depends on how much you did that.

play03:28

And what was the reason for all this to break?

play03:30

I wrote here that the government has called an all-party

play03:34

meeting on the crisis at 10.

play03:36

All these updates are necessary in the market hours.

play03:38

Why? Because look, it is like this.

play03:40

Everything has an impact.

play03:42

Some people will come to give knowledge in the comment

play03:44

section.

play03:44

Sir, what difference does it make from Bangladesh and all

play03:46

that.

play03:46

Brother, see the market after this news.

play03:49

When I did this message at 9.30, the market has been

play03:53

falling since then.

play03:55

Okay.

play03:56

So you say that if it does not affect, then it makes a

play03:58

difference.

play03:59

Brother, everything makes a difference.

play04:01

Okay.

play04:02

So I wrote that I hope it is a normal meeting and we are

play04:05

worried about the type of meeting.

play04:07

Then after that, I updated this.

play04:12

Then after that, I had to exit my straddle.

play04:18

For directional traders and buyers, it is better to trade

play04:22

nifty and bank nifty.

play04:24

There will be a lot of decay in others.

play04:26

Then the beer gang was going on.

play04:29

Okay.

play04:30

Then when it came here at 10.43, the bank nifty came here

play04:39

at 10.49.

play04:41

I immediately updated there that the bank nifty is here at

play04:44

100.

play04:45

Bounce is possible from here.

play04:46

Now when it breaks here, there will be a problem.

play04:48

Okay.

play04:49

I started shooting up again from here.

play04:54

How far did you shoot?

play04:55

If you look technically, the market has shot up to 200

play04:57

points from here.

play04:58

It has shot up to 50,250.

play05:00

It has shot almost 300 points up.

play05:03

So you have to understand all this.

play05:05

Then I wrote that the market is in the type of worry.

play05:09

Then I wrote that if it breaks for 49 minutes, then there

play05:11

will be a downside.

play05:12

Then the news of Japan came.

play05:14

And then when I thought the upside movement is over, I

play05:17

wrote that the market is all about timing.

play05:20

Then I wrote that the bulls will get a chance above this

play05:22

and not before that.

play05:24

It did not go above it and it broke.

play05:27

And after that, when I did this troll at the end, we are

play05:31

different 2 o'clock, it broke more.

play05:34

Okay.

play05:35

And after that, the nifty broke more.

play05:36

The nifty broke more after the troll I did at 2 o'clock.

play05:39

The market was breaking.

play05:40

It was a single direction fall.

play05:41

It was not a big deal to anticipate this because it was

play05:44

expected that the market would fall in these lines.

play05:47

Now do you know who will have a problem?

play05:49

The problem will come.

play05:51

The people who are Parma Bulls.

play05:52

They only think that buy and invest, buy and invest.

play05:57

Because what you see in the index is not a story.

play06:00

The index fell by 3% like yesterday.

play06:03

3% was nothing.

play06:05

Mutual funds fell by 5, 6, 4%

play06:08

So you imagine that the index was still there.

play06:12

Mutual funds fell by 4, 4, 5, 5%.

play06:14

Now you imagine that someone's mutual fund portfolio is of

play06:18

1 crore.

play06:19

If its 5% value falls, then in one day its 5 lakh rupees

play06:22

looks like it is sinking.

play06:24

People do not understand this.

play06:26

People say that what difference does it make to an investor.

play06:29

But when your portfolio will be of 1 crore and the value

play06:31

will be 95 lakhs the next day.

play06:33

So there is a psychological effect in the brain.

play06:36

The problem is not with those who have nothing.

play06:39

So there is no benefit for us in the falling market.

play06:41

I myself want the market to fall very low.

play06:43

So invest in bulk once.

play06:45

Now I am going to make the money free.

play06:49

Because in a few days there may be an opportunity.

play06:52

It may not be seen in the index.

play06:54

Because in the index, my simple logic is that I will invest

play06:56

in Nifty Bees and Bank Bees at a very low level.

play06:58

I am not going to do it before that.

play07:00

But I can see some opportunity in stocks.

play07:02

Then I will think there.

play07:04

When I think, I will try to tell.

play07:06

We can't tell because we are not registered analysts.

play07:09

I will try to help in some other way.

play07:13

I like this focus.

play07:19

Now let's see what will be our discussion for the next day.

play07:23

But before that, I will recommend one thing for the

play07:25

investors who listen.

play07:27

You listen to it and we will continue the discussion.

play07:30

Now after 2-3 days, I took a corrective dip in the market.

play07:33

So you must have noticed that many investors are thinking

play07:35

what will happen to my stock.

play07:38

Because the main problem behind it is that you don't do the

play07:40

financial analysis of your stock properly.

play07:43

If your stock is fundamentally very good, then you will not

play07:46

be afraid of such crashes.

play07:48

Rather, you will buy them at the right level.

play07:51

So this is the difference in the point of view of a long

play07:54

term investor.

play07:55

And those who listen to it and take something, then they

play07:57

get scared that what will happen to this stock.

play08:00

Because if you have properly understood that what is the

play08:02

fundamental of this stock.

play08:04

What is its capital, how does it work, what is its industry

play08:07

size, what is not.

play08:08

If you have done that much analysis, then you will not be

play08:10

afraid of small movements for your stock.

play08:12

So I always tell everyone to do the financial analysis.

play08:17

Now for that, I will recommend a book to you.

play08:19

This is Financial Statement Analysis by Jebral Nath.

play08:23

The specialty of this book is that if you only know what is

play08:26

sales, what is profit.

play08:28

And in between there are expenses, salary, wages, rent,

play08:32

depreciation.

play08:33

If you know this much, then this book will help you

play08:35

understand A to Z.

play08:37

How P&L is made, how balance sheet is made, how cash flow

play08:40

statement is made.

play08:41

How do we do its financial analysis, how do we calculate

play08:43

margins, how do we calculate return on equity.

play08:46

How do we interpret all the data, how do we calculate P&E

play08:49

ratios, how do we do valuations.

play08:52

Which will give you comfort in the long term.

play08:55

Okay, this sector should have P&E, so my stock's valuation

play08:57

is at these levels.

play08:59

So the value of this stock is at the right level.

play09:01

So all this will help you.

play09:04

Now if you see, this is a very good book and there are a

play09:06

lot of graphical presentations in it.

play09:09

There are a lot of things given in it, so it helps to a

play09:12

great extent.

play09:13

So I will leave its link in the description.

play09:15

If you use the code given on the screen, then you will get

play09:18

15% off.

play09:19

And after that you can easily keep this book.

play09:22

Because it will be very convenient for you to do

play09:24

fundamental analysis.

play09:25

You must have heard, if you want to learn fundamental

play09:27

analysis.

play09:28

So this is a good book for that.

play09:31

Do watch it.

play09:32

Let's see what discussion will be there for tomorrow.

play09:35

First of all, let's come to Nifty.

play09:39

And see the link of this telegram channel, the link is in

play09:43

the description.

play09:44

You can join, you can not, there is no problem in that.

play09:48

But please listen to the video properly.

play09:51

If you listen to the video properly, you will understand a

play09:54

lot, it will help you a lot.

play09:55

And Nifty has been touching its 50 dema for two days. and

play10:00

bounce

play10:01

Today also at 50 Demma

play10:03

It came and touched and bounce

play10:05

So this was good

play10:06

Touch and bounce

play10:08

Touch and bounce

play10:09

Touch and bounce ok It was a good thing

play10:12

Touch and bounce

play10:13

In my opinion, it was good and but Today's candle is closed

play10:18

under the previous candle if we break this 50 Demma

play10:22

tomorrow ok If we break this 50 Demma tomorrow which is

play10:27

just under 30 points from the closing if we say 33 from

play10:32

final closing then it will

play10:35

be 60-70 points but the actual average closing is less than

play10:40

30 points if this breaks then the target will be open now

play10:45

why is it stopping here in weekly also this support zone is

play10:50

coming out around 23-400 ok on weekly time frame and daily

play10:55

time frame almost

play10:56

the same level is coming out here 300 and there 400 so if

play11:01

this breaks then it will be 23-400 yeah it was range of 300

play11:06

one slide is made now when it will come, how it will come,

play11:12

no one knows how many days it will come, no one knows

play11:16

situation is being made

play11:18

like this so these levels are nothing, we can see anything

play11:24

but yes, no level comes in a day comes slowly so monthly 50

play11:30

means average of 50 months wow, it is too far too far the

play11:35

level I have thought is so far that it is not coming

play11:41

I also know that it will not come let's see when it will

play11:45

feel that institutional buying has started big investors

play11:50

have started buying, so I will also do it but till it

play11:54

doesn't happen, let's see now buy the dip is not applicable

play11:59

for me 24,030 below sorry

play12:01

above, 24,030 above if it will come above 24,030 then

play12:06

24,100 first level then 24,160 second level will be open

play12:10

for you if it will come above 24,030 then 24,100 then

play12:15

24,160, you can get a good move the levels we discussed in

play12:20

downside the same 23,960 if

play12:22

23,960 market breaks then 23,800 door will be open yes, it

play12:27

is obvious that it doesn't come in one candle but below

play12:32

960, first move till 880 second move till 800 it will be

play12:36

possible for you, so be prepared this is done so be ready

play12:41

for both levels let's

play12:43

see option data what is option data? actually there is a

play12:48

wrestling match going on so Winners Fogart is playing well

play12:52

he has already defeated world no.1 now in the second match

play12:57

quarter final basically so he is almost in winning position

play13:02

let's see if he

play13:04

wins

play13:06

I am seeing the same 24,000, good call writing is going on

play13:11

put writing is too much on 24,000 now I am afraid of him

play13:16

you notice 2,62,000 contracts and we are not that far from

play13:21

24,000 if it breaks below 960 then this put writer was

play13:26

brave and because of

play13:27

his bravery you are left with 23,000 7600 is still visible

play13:33

so what should I say if I say something, it will be bad

play13:38

I don't want to say anyways, let's see bank nifty bank

play13:42

nifty has done a different thing let me show you it has

play13:47

closed below previous day low no problem, it can close but

play13:52

it has closed below 100 dema this should not be done after

play13:58

closing below 100 dema

play14:00

target of 200 dema opens now it continues so this is a good

play14:05

thing zone of 850 as long as it stays below this weakness

play14:11

will continue

play14:14

and if we see it on weekly time frame so in weekly it has

play14:20

closed below 20 dema now in weekly 50 dema and daily 100

play14:25

dema and 200 dema both are passed now it is showing a

play14:31

problem

play14:34

49,850, keep this level in mind 49,850, keep this level in

play14:38

mind 49,850 as long as it is below 850 there is no problem

play14:43

it was trying to reverse again and again it is not able to

play14:48

break below because it has taken a fall but it was not able

play14:52

to go above this

play14:54

is a catchy situation tomorrow it will expire now in

play14:58

expiry, more shots are created now I am afraid in expiry,

play15:03

more shots are created tomorrow and tomorrow by mistake

play15:07

global market got a little positive so there are more shots

play15:12

in the system if it is below

play15:14

then people will book the shots so let's see what happens

play15:19

in live market it is very important 49,850, keep this level

play15:23

in mind if it is above 850, then 50,000 50,000 and 200 in

play15:28

downside, 49,700 keep this level in mind 49,700, if it is

play15:33

below if market wants

play15:34

to bounce then market will try to bounce from 49,300

play15:40

I will tell you why I am showing this level

play15:42

I will tell you why I am showing this level this range

play15:47

which we broke out in June after election results we took

play15:53

support at this level we took support at this level if it

play15:58

breaks there then there is a problem but if we have to take

play16:04

support then market

play16:06

will try to take support from where we broke out the first

play16:11

level of support is 49,300 is 49,300 so we have to take

play16:17

judgment so it will be interesting to trade bank nifty

play16:23

I hope there will not be a big gap in live market we will

play16:27

deal with it if we see option data call writing in the

play16:31

money is not that much it is at 50,000 it is at 50,000

play16:35

notice here put writer is trapped if market wants to fall

play16:39

then it will fall because

play16:41

of put writer unwinding not because of call writer pressure

play16:45

call writer is not that much in the money this is a catch

play16:50

point and why call writer will not be in the money this is

play16:54

also a reason why? because people already saw that gap is

play16:58

open so it is better

play17:00

to open the gap we will sell it what will we do by taking

play17:05

risk plus one more fear 500 point straddle

play17:11

so this fear will be there for tomorrow let's see

play17:17

now we come to major stock chart let's see the mid cap

play17:23

level it will be useful yesterday's low was again to test

play17:29

the market so that level is not reached but if 12200 will

play17:35

break if 12200 will break then it can go now we come to

play17:41

major stock charts

play17:43

SDSC bank till it does not come above 1610 don't bring

play17:47

bullish view in taxes it is same level above 1130 in ICC

play17:52

weakness will come below 1165 before that there will be no

play17:57

weakness if it will come below 1165 then weakness can come

play18:02

Bajaj finance broke more because today mid cap expiry was

play18:06

there so it was necessary to break

play18:08

SBI also broke

play18:10

I don't know why it can break SBI fell take care of INFI

play18:15

1750 take care of this level the reason for breaking SBI is

play18:21

that there are many Adani projects or Indian corporate

play18:26

projects which are running in Bangladesh and SBI is funding

play18:31

all of them so that

play18:33

can be a reason 1750 in INFI till it is above we have to

play18:39

keep bullish view

play18:41

Reliance was very positive that's why it saved Nifty and

play18:45

because of its positivity

play18:47

Nifty was saved but we have to take care of 2900 level it

play18:51

can be weak below 2900

play18:53

HUL and ITC as expected when it is making top everywhere so

play18:57

it is trying to make bottom so take care of that

play19:01

HUL we have to take care of this level till it is above

play19:05

2740 bullish view will be intact

play19:07

Gold and silver were a little cold in global markets but

play19:11

why our markets were not cold because our currency was very

play19:14

weak so because of our weak currency even if gold fell 2%

play19:18

in global markets it did not affect us because of that your

play19:22

bullish momentum

play19:23

is continued in gold and silver at least in Indian market

play19:27

and if currency keeps falling then there is no solution so

play19:31

take care of this so in gold and silver my personal view

play19:35

will be positive and my expectations are positive

play19:39

CRUD has broken this range of 6170 till it is above 6170

play19:43

keep it in bullish view till it is above 6170 it will be in

play19:48

bullish view and it is trying to go up natural gas is stuck

play19:53

above 165.5 it is in bullish view and gold is the same, if

play19:58

it is stuck again

play19:59

or not then it can give a bullish move on 6 and 200 so we

play20:04

have to take care of that, rest is fine

play20:08

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