$6.15 Trillion Problem... DO THIS NOW!
Summary
TLDRThe video discusses the current bullish market sentiment with new record highs and the return of greed among investors. It highlights the significant amount of money in Money Market funds and questions whether this is 'scared' or 'smart' money. The script touches on the potential for a 'FOMO' (Fear of Missing Out) effect as the S&P and NASDAQ hit Fibonacci extension levels. It also covers Jerome Powell's testimony, Apple's rise as the world's most valuable company, and the upcoming earnings reports from major tech companies like Tesla and Meta, suggesting a positive outlook for the market.
Takeaways
- 📈 The stock market is experiencing new record highs, indicating a continued bull market with strong investor confidence.
- 🤑 Greed is returning to the market, with investors potentially shifting from money market funds to stocks, especially if they offer higher returns.
- 💰 There is approximately $6.15 trillion sitting in money market funds, which could potentially flow into the stock market if investors feel the current returns are insufficient compared to the S&P's gains.
- 📊 The S&P has risen significantly, with nearly a 20% increase in the last year and 28% in the past year, prompting investors to consider re-allocating their funds.
- 🔢 The market has reached a Fibonacci extension level, a technical analysis tool that suggests potential resistance or reversal points, but the market continues to rise.
- 📊 Every industry group is up, indicating a broad market rally, and major ETFs are also showing gains, suggesting a widespread bullish sentiment.
- 📉 Jerome Powell's testimony did not lead to any significant market reactions, maintaining the bullish trend.
- 🏆 Apple has become the most valuable company in the world and aims to ship 10% more phones this year, which could positively impact its revenue.
- 📊 Historical data suggests that if the market is up significantly by mid-year, there is a high probability of continued growth, especially if accompanied by multiple record closes.
- 📈 Market breadth is narrowing, with the top companies in the S&P driving the market's rise, which could indicate a potential concentration of investment in fewer stocks.
- 📅 Upcoming earnings reports from major tech companies like Netflix and Tesla could act as catalysts for further market movements, with expectations of positive results.
Q & A
What is the current sentiment in the stock market according to the script?
-The current sentiment in the stock market is bullish, with record highs being reached and greed returning among investors.
Why might investors be upset with the S&P's performance?
-Investors might be upset because, despite the S&P's significant gains over the last year, they could be earning more (5% a year or about 2.5% year to date) from Money Market funds.
What does the script suggest about the amount of money in Money Market funds?
-The script suggests that there is a record amount of $6.15 trillion sitting in Money Market funds, indicating a potential shift in investment strategy.
What is the significance of the Fibonacci extension being hit on the S&P and NASDAQ?
-Hitting the Fibonacci extension indicates a potential turning point or reversal in the market trend, which could be a sign for investors to pay attention to market movements.
What is the script's opinion on Jerome Powell's testimony?
-The script views Jerome Powell's testimony as bullish, as he remained composed and did not create any major negative headlines that could affect the market.
How does the script describe the performance of the top companies in the S&P?
-The script describes the performance of the top companies in the S&P as booming, with the largest companies driving the market's upward trend.
What is the script's view on the potential for a 'FOMO' (Fear of Missing Out) effect in the market?
-The script suggests that with the current market highs and greed returning, there is a possibility that the record amount of money on the sidelines could lead to a FOMO effect, prompting more investments.
What historical pattern is the script referring to regarding the market's performance after the first 15 days of the year?
-The script refers to a historical pattern that if the market is more than 10% green year to date at the midpoint, there is an 80% to 82% chance that it will continue to be higher.
What upcoming events are mentioned in the script that could act as market catalysts?
-The script mentions upcoming earnings reports from companies like Netflix and Tesla, which could act as catalysts for the market, especially if they report beats.
How does the script suggest the market's direction after July 17th?
-The script suggests that the market's direction after July 17th will be influenced by historical patterns and upcoming catalysts such as earnings reports from big tech companies.
What is the script's final target for the S&P, and why was it adjusted?
-The script's final target for the S&P was initially 6200, but it was adjusted higher due to the market's continued bullish trend and the return of greed among investors.
Outlines
📈 Stock Market Reaches New Highs Amidst Greed and Record Cash Reserves
The script discusses the ongoing bull market, with record highs and the return of greed among investors. It highlights the dilemma of $6.15 trillion sitting in Money Market funds, which may be underperforming compared to the S&P's 20% gains. The author ponders whether the current market behavior is driven by fear or savvy investment, especially with the S&P hitting the Fibonacci extension level. The script also touches on Jerome Powell's testimony and its impact on stocks, noting that despite the Federal Reserve's stance, the market continues to rise. The author speculates on whether the market's upward trend could be fueled by fear of missing out (FOMO) and encourages viewers to share their thoughts. Key market indicators and the performance of various ETFs, including SMH and XLG, are reviewed, with a focus on the overall bullish sentiment and the potential for further gains.
📊 Market Divergence and the Impact of Big Tech Earnings
This paragraph delves into the market's technical analysis, noting a lack of participation from various industry groups despite the overall market's upward trajectory. The author suggests that for a broader market rally, rate cuts may not be necessary but could help diversify market gains. The focus then shifts to the performance of the top companies in the S&P, indicating that while many are raising funds out of fear, the largest firms continue to thrive. Upcoming earnings reports from major tech companies like Netflix and Tesla are anticipated to be positive, which could act as catalysts for further market movement. The author also references historical data suggesting that the market's performance in the first half of the year could be indicative of its direction for the rest of the year. The script concludes by reiterating the potential for the market to reach higher levels, with the author's original target of 6200 being revised upwards due to recent market enthusiasm and positive economic indicators.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Record Highs
💡Greed
💡Money Market Funds
💡FOMO
💡Fibonacci Extension
💡ETFs
💡Jerome Powell
💡Apple
💡Catalysts
💡CPI
💡Market Breadth
Highlights
The bull market continues with new record highs and the return of greed.
A record $6.15 trillion is sitting in Money Market funds, indicating potential for investment in the S&P which has risen significantly.
Investors may be experiencing FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) as the market continues to rise, especially with the S&P up nearly 20% in the last year.
The market has hit the Fibonacci extension on both the S&P and NASDAQ, suggesting potential for further growth.
Jerome Powell's testimony did not create any major market disruptions, maintaining a bullish trend.
Apple has become the most valuable company in the world and aims to ship 10% more phones this year, contributing to its revenue.
The market's heat map shows a broad positive trend across various sectors.
Historical data from 1928 suggests a strong start to the year could indicate further market gains.
Investors are starting to exhibit signs of greed, which could potentially lead to a market FOMO.
The market is getting narrow, with the largest companies driving the S&P's growth.
Netflix and Tesla are expected to report earnings that could act as catalysts for the market.
Meta's earnings report is anticipated to be positive, potentially influencing the market's direction.
The speaker predicts that the market can go higher, with the original target of 6200 for the S&P being moved.
Upcoming economic data, such as the expected CPI figures, could be bullish for the market.
The speaker encourages viewers to subscribe for daily market insights and analysis.
Transcripts
new record highs the bull party
continues and nothing seems like it can
stop the party but here's something
that's interesting greed is now back so
now that greed's back and we're at Fresh
record highs what is going to happen
with the record number or the rise to
the $ 6.15 trillion currently sitting in
Money Market funds uh I don't know about
you but if I was getting 5% a year or
about 2.5% year to date
well I would be a little bit upset with
what's been happening with the S&P
because it's up by nearly 20 and in the
last year up by 28 so people are
actually raising even more money right
Rises to a record so is this scared
money or is it smart money right now the
record is at new highs we've now also
hit the Fibonacci Fibonacci extension on
the S&P so with all this money being
raised are these people who are scared
or are these people who are smart with
really comes down to for me is whether
or not this money is going to come off
the sidelines and start to get a little
bit of fomo because uh this would be
difficult to watch 5% is nice it's
beating inflation but hey 20% is like a
lot better and the market just cannot
seem to stop and now investors are
wondering what to do and Jerome Powell
just finished his second day of
testimony today so what are stocks doing
well I just told you fresh record highs
we've now hit the Fibonacci extension on
both the S&P and the NASDAQ it's a
summer melt up and every single Industry
Group is up the NASDAQ incredibly also
actually came back down and bounced off
its Fibonacci Fibonacci extension and uh
most ETFs that I watch are up SMH up
2.3% the Magnificent 7 1% xlg 1% the Dow
Jones pushing off what used to be
resistance bullish the Russell over its
50 dma oh my goodness equal weight S&P
over the 50 uh equal weight uh techn
techology new alltime highs whoa we're
noticing a theme here yeah it's up and
the theme is pretty clear investors are
starting to get a little bit of greedy
so with all this money and the sidelines
will this greed turn into fomo drop me a
comment and tell me what you think but
if you're wondering what to do let's go
through and look at the news down um
Jerome pav didn't really make news so
that's excellent right he was really
good today they were grilling him pretty
hard but this guy knows how to stay
composed and uh it looks like he was
Aging in front of us looked looked like
he was getting a little bit old but the
good thing is that we closed that new
record high so there's the news and the
reaction to the news the news and my
opinion was bullish no major headlines
and the reaction to the news also
bullish so what we expect to happen is
happening what is that it's bullish in
case you're not clear and we still have
a lot of cash on the sidelines the king
is back in the driver's seat or um Apple
they're now the most valuable company in
the world as of today and they aim to
ship 10% more uh phones this year after
bumpy 2023 remember that Apple sales
account for roughly half of the
company's Revenue so that would be like
pretty good why hey Apple's pretty big
there's still challenges not going to
try to deny that but hey look at the
heat map today boom boom boom right we
got chips up this this sector over here
is looking really good everything's
actually pretty broadly uh green looking
at the last week hey it looks a lot
better than normal right it's not
perfect but hey it looks okay in the
last month there's still work to do so
um like I said uh what's going to happen
from now and what does history say well
going back to 1928 the first 15 days
have been incredible and I did the math
uh here's where we are right now so if
we look at uh if we look at U month
today I'm just going to Rattle off the
numbers fairly fast so we can just push
forward and uh talk about more stuff so
the S&P we're looking at the number
right here so S&P up by uh
3.14% whoa right how in how long it's
been 10 days whoa um NASDAQ uh 5% 4.98
and then chips whoa 7.89% so chips Le
Tech and Tech lead spy okay so if chips
lead tech and Tech lead spy what's going
to happen after the 17th well history
says that if we get a dip right after
we're more than 10% green year to date
at the midpoint um 80% 82% chance we're
going to be higher and it's like a lot
higher now seven or 10% whoa if we get
more than 20 records uh record closes
into the first half of the Year see see
it's just as good 80% hit ratio and uh
still pretty good 5% 99.6% we're already
at three so is this it are we going to
keep going higher so now what it really
comes down to is what happens here on
July 17th just before we look at that
I'm going to ask you for a huge favor if
you could please consider smashing that
thumbs up subscribing to the channel
that would be greatly greatly
appreciated so what we've been talking
about is that in the in the last three
months again after the quarter is over
now we want to see that rotation start
to happen that's why I'm focusing on the
weekly chart here but now let me show
you something different because um with
a lot of these charts really starting to
coil up and uh kudos to Andrew who
pointed that out today along with cat in
our group um these charts are not really
doing anything so if we look here to
like the daily chart man nothing Burger
on iwm look at RSP big old nothing
burger right markets continuing to blast
off and these things are doing nothing
so if the Market's doing this but a lot
of groups are not participating why
could that be I've mentioned it in a
previous video but I'll go through it
right now if rates don't go down it
means sorry so we don't need the market
to sorry we don't need rates to go down
for the rally to continue for the S&P
what we need Ray cuts for is for the
market to broaden out so that is what I
think is important that's what Jerome
Powell talked about today the path for
us to get to Cuts so the market is
getting narrow and we can see that by
looking at something else like xlg which
just looks at the top 50 companies in
the S&P right the top 50 the top 10% so
these stocks are doing the same thing as
S&P right Mega big up so it's not just
the Magnificent 7 it's just a theme of
the biggest companies are working people
are scared it's why they're raising even
more money to put them at into money
market funds uh but the biggest
companies are still booming so let's
look here what happens after the 18th
well Netflix reports and as of right now
it's a whisper beat we know that
guidance matters we know that being at
all-time high matters but Tesla's up
next as of what I can find right now and
that would be a Beat so Tesla would
report a beat on July 23rd and I think
elon's going to be a little bit excited
why he's got the robo taxi and stuff so
I think he's gonna pump himself up then
we look over here to meta right cool
sailing here for Mark Zuckerberg right
Born in the USA or born in America here
we go right that's a pretty nice speat
it's like 10 per. so do we have to go
lower after the 17th well sell and Mayan
go away did we go lower in May no we did
not right little dip Boop right Nike
Swoosh right check mark up so no we
don't have to do anything history is a
guide but we want to be receptive to
what could be coming as catalysts these
will be the Catalyst this is big tech
and as of right now we're seeing beats
across the board so drone Pilot's like
hey guys hold my beer time to go up I'm
giving you the thumbs up why hey
everything looks good and uh this is
incredible so yesterday after only one
day we basically hit both my target so
I'm very happy with this because no one
one believed it coming to here and a lot
of people don't think there's upside to
the market why they're raising money so
where can we go well we can definitely
go higher my original Target was 6200 so
hey let's move the uh like we're playing
football right we're going to move the
uh move the uh um whatever you call it
we're gon to move the yards right there
we go let's move the goalpost why man
we're just starting to get back in greed
right the party's not even started and
if we look here to data for tomorrow
we're looking for 3.1 on Headline CPI I
think that's going to be bullish so with
that said thank you for tuning in maybe
you want to subscribe on the left or
hang out with me at 9:15 a.m. tomorrow
thanks so much
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