What Happens to Bitcoin After $112,000?

Summary

This video offers a concise technical analysis of Bitcoin’s short-term outlook, highlighting recent price action, indicators, and likely corrective targets. The host reviews daily/12-hour/4-day momentum signals, moon-chart warnings, and moving-average crossovers—pointing to probable downside pressure toward $105–$106, with deeper corrective zones near $98–$102k if key EMA crosses complete. He outlines bullish invalidation levels (notably a sustained move above ~$112k–$118k) and ties broader market context—SPY, NASDAQ, and gold—into the risk picture. The tone is cautious but open to a bounce, and the presenter thanks the community for personal support while promising more live analysis.

Takeaways

• 📈 Bitcoin recently bounced from the $105,000 range to just under $112,000, showing short-term upward movement before potential correction signals emerged.
• 💍 The speaker expressed deep gratitude for community well-wishes following his marriage ceremony with Elsa, emphasizing the emotional connection with viewers.
• 📊 Historical daily statistics show that Bitcoin tends to have slightly more negative Tuesday closes, with an average loss of around 1.73%, and that the recent bounce already matched this pattern.
• 🌙 The 'moon chart' indicator has flashed a bearish signal again, historically associated with 7–8% downside moves, potentially pointing toward $102,000–$105,000 as a near-term target.
• 📉 Hidden bearish divergence on the 12-hour RSI suggests likely short-term downside toward $105,000–$106,000 unless Bitcoin breaks and closes above $112,000.
• 🔻 Multiple timeframes of stochastic momentum oscillators (daily through monthly) are aligned to the downside, indicating broader corrective pressure below $120,000.
• 📉 The 4-day and 5-day moving average cross signals indicate high-probability corrective targets near $98,000–$102,000, aligning with past CME behavior.
• ⚙️ Additional 2-day moving average cross analysis also points toward a potential test of the 200 EMA near $97,000, reinforcing the downside confluence zone.
• 📊 Despite near-term weakness, the speaker maintains that Bitcoin’s macro structure remains bullish above $74,000–$75,000, leaving room for a higher low before a larger bounce.
• 💡 If Bitcoin reclaims and closes above $112,000, the next potential bounce targets are $115,000–$118,000, with possible extension to $120,000 before facing major resistance.
• 📉 Broader market indicators like SPY and NASDAQ remain near all-time highs, providing some hope for Bitcoin stability, though gold appears to be topping with bearish divergences.
• 🙏 The speaker closes by reiterating gratitude to the audience, acknowledging uncertainty about whether Bitcoin dips first to $105,000 or $98,000 before bouncing, and promises continued updates.

Q & A

What recent price movement did Bitcoin experience according to the video?

Bitcoin bounced from the $105,000 range to just under $112,000, marking a short-term move to the upside.

What key resistance level does the speaker identify for Bitcoin in the short term?

The key resistance level is around $112,000; if Bitcoin closes above this level, it could target $115,000 to $118,000 next.

What is the significance of the moon chart mentioned in the video?

The moon chart, which the speaker admits is controversial, has historically aligned with short-term downside movements following bearish moon phases, typically showing 7–8% declines.

What potential downside targets are identified for Bitcoin if it continues to correct?

The speaker highlights downside targets between $98,000 and $102,000, with $102,000 being a key level confirmed by multiple indicators.

How does hidden bearish divergence on the 12-hour RSI affect Bitcoin’s short-term outlook?

Hidden bearish divergence indicates likely short-term downside pressure, suggesting a move back toward $105,000 to $106,000.

What moving average crossover signals are discussed, and what do they imply?

The speaker discusses several moving average crossovers, particularly the red line crossing below the yellow line on the 4-day and 5-day charts. Historically, these crossovers have led to corrections down to the green moving average near $102,000 or lower.

What conditions would invalidate the current bearish short-term bias?

If Bitcoin trades and closes above $112,000, the hidden bearish divergence would be invalidated, increasing the likelihood of a rally toward $116,000–$118,000.

How does the broader market, such as SPY and NASDAQ, influence Bitcoin’s outlook?

Since SPY and NASDAQ are still trending upward near all-time highs, the speaker maintains a cautiously optimistic view for Bitcoin, noting that traditional market strength could support Bitcoin’s stability or recovery.

What are the speaker’s thoughts on the macro Bitcoin trend and the current cycle?

The speaker is open to the idea that the current market cycle might be over but remains unconvinced until a confirmed macro downtrend forms. They still expect higher lows and possible sideways consolidation.

What sentiment does the speaker express toward the Bitcoin community and recent personal events?

The speaker expresses deep gratitude for the community’s well wishes regarding their recent marriage, describing the support as heartfelt and meaningful.

What is the likely short-term sequence of Bitcoin’s movement according to the analysis?

The most probable sequence is a test of $105,000–$106,000, a short-term bounce, and then a potential continuation lower toward $98,000–$102,000.

What tools or indicators does the speaker use for their analysis?

The speaker uses the Caretaker Indicator Suite for short-term scalping insights and Quant Prime for backtesting technical setups on various timeframes.