$AAPL PRE Q3 EARNING ANALYSIS
Summary
TLDRIn this Top Trading video, the presenter analyzes Apple's stock performance, highlighting a bearish trend and predicting a possible drop to two-digit prices. They discuss past earnings, currency fluctuations, and supply constraints affecting Apple's profitability. The video provides a detailed chart analysis, including MACD indicators and resistance levels, and urges viewers to join the Top Trading Academy for further insights. The presenter also emphasizes the importance of doing one's own research and shares their bearish outlook based on financial fundamentals and market trends.
Takeaways
- 📈 The video discusses Apple's stock performance, highlighting a recent bull run followed by a bear run.
- 👀 The speaker warned about potential risks before Apple's earnings report, suggesting the stock was more expensive at $162 than at $182.
- 📚 Mention of Top Trading Edge Academy, where viewers can learn more about stock analysis and trading strategies.
- 🗓 Historical tweet references on July 30th and video analysis on July 22nd, indicating a similar bearish pattern setting up for Apple's stock.
- 📉 The speaker anticipates that if Apple misses its earnings, the stock could become more expensive at $100 compared to the $182 level.
- 📉 Prediction of Apple's stock heading towards two-digit figures, despite being a favored stock on Wall Street.
- 📊 Technical analysis is provided, with the MACD indicator suggesting further downside potential for the stock price.
- 📊 The speaker suggests that Apple might fill a gap in its stock price, which could lead to further declines.
- 💰 Discussion of Apple's financial fundamentals, including a significant drop in net income and the impact of currency fluctuations on earnings.
- 🔍 Mention of external factors such as currency wars, supply constraints, and rising interest rates that could negatively affect Apple's profitability.
- 📉 The speaker's overall bearish stance on Apple's stock, based on technical analysis, financial fundamentals, and market sentiment.
Q & A
What was the main topic of the video?
-The main topic of the video was Apple's stock performance, specifically its chart analysis and predictions based on historical trends and upcoming earnings reports.
What was the speaker's initial warning about Apple's stock price around $162?
-The speaker warned that Apple's stock was more expensive at $162 than it would be at $182, suggesting that it would be cheaper to buy at the higher price point based on the expected earnings and market trends.
What does the speaker suggest about joining Top Trading Edge Academy?
-The speaker suggests that joining Top Trading Edge Academy can help viewers understand the stock market better, including why buying Apple at $182 could be considered cheaper than at $162.
What did the speaker predict about Apple's stock price in relation to its earnings report?
-The speaker predicted that if Apple's earnings report shows a miss, the stock price could drop significantly, making $100 a more expensive buying point than $182.
What is the significance of the term 'two digits' in the context of the video?
-The term 'two digits' refers to the speaker's prediction that Apple's stock price could drop to a level where it is valued in the double digits, which is a significant decrease from its current value.
What was the speaker's advice regarding Apple's stock on August 19th?
-The speaker advised that there was a bearish trend and that it was a good time to sell or avoid buying Apple's stock, as they expected the price to continue falling.
What technical analysis tool does the speaker mention in relation to Apple's stock?
-The speaker mentioned the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) as a technical analysis tool, suggesting that it still had room to go negative, indicating a bearish trend.
What was the speaker's price target for Apple's stock?
-The speaker's price target for Apple's stock was around $129, with a potential support level at $123.
What factors does the speaker believe are affecting Apple's profitability?
-The speaker believes that currency fluctuations, supply constraints, and sluggish demand are affecting Apple's profitability, along with the broader economic factors such as rising interest rates and quantitative tightening.
What does the speaker suggest for viewers who want to learn more about stock trading?
-The speaker suggests joining the Top Trading community and Top Trading Edge Academy for live teaching sessions and insights into stock trading strategies.
Outlines
📈 Apple's Stock Analysis and Market Predictions
This paragraph discusses an analysis of Apple's stock performance, highlighting a recent bull run followed by a bear run. The speaker refers to past advice given when Apple's stock was at $162, suggesting it was more expensive then than at $182, and encourages viewers to join the Top Trading Edge Academy for better understanding. Historical tweets and videos are mentioned, indicating a bearish pattern that the speaker predicts will lead to Apple's stock price falling into the two-digit range. The speaker emphasizes that despite Apple being a Wall Street favorite, they foresee a significant downturn, advising viewers to pay attention to market signals and their analysis.
📉 Analyzing Apple's Earnings Report and Currency Impact
The second paragraph delves into Apple's financial performance, noting a significant drop in net income from the previous quarter, which is attributed to currency fluctuations and the impact of holding cash in various currencies that have depreciated. The speaker explains how profits made in foreign currencies are translated back into dollars, resulting in a loss when the foreign currency has weakened. Additionally, the paragraph touches on Apple's demand and supply constraints, suggesting that the company might miss earnings expectations. The speaker uses technical analysis, mentioning the MACD indicator and potential price targets, and warns of the broader economic challenges such as debt, currency wars, and quantitative tightening that could affect Apple's stock price negatively.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Bull Run
💡Bear Run
💡Top Trading Edge Academy
💡MACD
💡Resistance
💡Bearish Flow
💡Earnings
💡Currency Fluctuation
💡Supply Constraint
💡Quantitative Tightening
💡Gap
Highlights
Introduction to Apple's stock chart analysis in the current market scenario.
Historical context provided with a comparison between Apple's stock price at 162 and 182.
Emphasis on joining Top Trading Edge Academy for understanding stock valuation.
Tweet from July 30th highlighting a heads-up on Apple's stock performance pre-earnings.
Video analysis from July 22nd predicting a bearish trend for Apple's stock.
Discussion on the potential for Apple's stock to be cheaper at 182 than at 130 based on previous quarters.
Expectation of Apple's stock heading into two digits despite its market darling status.
Invitation to join Top Trading Age Community for live trading insights.
Tweets from August 19th providing a timestamp and analysis on resistance levels.
Analysis of Apple's stock volume increase indicating a bearish flow.
Discussion on the potential impact of currency fluctuations on Apple's earnings.
Explanation of how currency values affect Apple's reported profits and losses.
Forecast of a possible earnings miss due to demand sluggishness and supply constraints.
Technical analysis indicating a bearish trend line and potential market resistance.
Market anticipation of Apple filling a price gap, suggesting further stock decline.
Call to action for viewers to like, share, and subscribe for more financial insights.
Transcripts
hello welcome to top trading age this
video is for apple uh chart analysis and
let's take a look at what actually apple
is doing right now so as you can see
this was the bull run right here and we
have the bear run and I did mention we
had the running here and I did mention
so let's take a look at the little
history first what I said if you look at
these when I what I was talking here so
if we can go back to
um
right here when Apple was started going
162 I said earning is coming in and we
got to be a little careful and I said do
you know the Apple stock is more
expensive at 162 then you are buying at
182.
you are buying at 182 here then buying
at 162 here that's what I said you are
buying at that time at
if you know you if you know you are
smart if you don't know please join top
trading Edge Academy and you can learn
that so this was the one of the tweet I
tweet on
July 30th okay so that's the one
heads up then I also made a video on
July 22nd and I said look same pattern
is setting up if you look at it today
setting up the same pattern as the last
time
then bearish
we're gonna be very so similar kind of
percentage we are gonna go up around
here and we're gonna have the berries
this is the video I posted you can go
and take a look at it I'm not gonna play
here in this video because we won't
analyze now how the chat look like so as
you can see I mentioned right right here
where we are now went up and now went
back to here what I did what I said
buying Apple at 182 is
more cheaper than buying at 130 based on
the previous these quarter running if
this quarter running comes out and we
miss and this is what I'm expecting we
we might miss this one then buying at
100 apple is more expensive than buying
at 182 and that's what I analyzed and I
said it's gonna be apple is heading in
two digits but remember it's a heater
this is the darling of entire Wall
Street every 401K every institution
every firm holding Apple sorry so very
very you know it's like a crown of the
jewel right steel I'm saying hey it's
heading to two digit you know I'm giving
heads up all around it's not just I'm
against it but whatever I see and that's
what I've been telling live so if you
want to join joint top trading age
Community guys right here look at that
top trading age Academy I teach
everything all day live and it's free it
doesn't cost you anything joint updating
Edge I go live every day morning 9 30 to
4. so all right let's take a look at
what exactly I give a heads up
right here
I tweet then august 19 I'm giving you
the timestamp no August 19. when it's
august 19
look at that at the top I gave a heads
up on August 18 right here 17 18th also
now 19th right here at the when we've
got a rejection right here that's the by
trend line which I gave you heads up hey
we're gonna hit this and this is our
resistance get out of it right guess
what
look at the 19 what happened and I gave
a heads up to you guys too right here
Apple big what did I say apple is
printing just I mean we were buying all
the fruits just double down on bearish
Flow look at that 40 from 20 million to
45 million
and that that too it this was 130 by the
by by four o'clock it was a massive
so please join top trading and I said
hey it's a bearish flow coming in
something is cooking somebody knows
something right and that's what I tweet
about it and look at that after that
look at after that bang bang look at
that all the way constant going down
right so somebody knows
and that's what I give a heads up and I
made a video also look at that
keep noticing on August 18th as well as
22nd
19th keep checking all this right so now
what actually happening as you can see
rolling down rolling down rolling down
all right so right here now where are we
heading what did I say the macd still
has a room to go around 680 maybe
negative 10 maybe eight something like
that approximately but absolutely price
Target is right here I posted Apple
could go and fill up the Gap right here
when
that time Market will tell but this
earning will come Discerning what I I
told you guys is the holiday coming in
and I'll show you right here
statement quarterly
Apple said I'm losing right here
19. look at the revenue in net income
loss look at that net income loss from
34 to 25.
so almost like a 10 billion nine billion
dollar 234.6 35 to 25 is almost 10
billion dollar loss from previous car to
this quarter now we have our you know
currency fluctuation we have the higher
guys you know that that way you know
Euro if you take a look at the Japan and
any countries currencies right now went
down 30 to 60 percent most of the
countries I would say at least easy 35
so uh you know Apple do have a currency
in a different and they hold in the
their their cash in different different
currencies so that value goes down
automatically plus
um if they are doing any profit in
different countries 60 65 to 67 profit
apple is making in other than in US
dollar a bad one if they want to bring
that dollar back everything calculates
basically in that currency right bottom
line is
calculated into dollars so they lose
that value so if they are making to
Apple is making 25 profit then it
calculates that hey Apple currency or
they have a 25 loss that's the loss and
that will be adjusted into their
earnings okay so that's why I'm
expecting plus as you know the Apple
came out that demand is sluggish and the
supply constraint too so that's why I
feel like we might miss this time
earning and that is just a heads up and
that's why I'm I'm thinking we might
Market might break this one my price
Target right here this is the 129 pip
support if you go to 123. so that's what
apple is looking like
despite having the darling of the Wall
Street despite having the each and every
all the market maker everybody loves to
have the Apple because that's the you
know golden uh golden horse that's what
they use every day right here but
deciding to fill the Gap so that's what
I can feel still we have a room to go
down
um well but I did give you the heads up
guys way early early I had give you a
heads up up here and that's the proof of
this video so
um now do you think we're gonna go yeah
absolutely look at that the uh the trend
line is bearish right here the distance
is in Tech trying to look at the what
happened exactly tops tops one top
second tops third tops tops are falling
so Market try to jump and got a
rejection we send back so tops are
falling if the bottom rise and trend
line breaks then I could be bullish but
until then right here as I said the
financial fundamental doesn't allow me
to be bullish at this particular point
of time huge debt and a lot of currency
war and um you know the apple does a lot
of international business that's why
they have a more constant in terms of
making money and their profitability is
going down so they have multiple plus
there you know the rising rate
environment higher tax everything is is
is not looking good at this particular
point and the quantitative tightening
will start so that is starting so that's
why all this calculation look like we
might break this floor and we go home
same thing as I told you here also will
be going down so this is what would
happen to me guys again you know this is
what my thesis you have to do your
homework okay so if you like this video
please please uh this is already heads
up if you like this video please like
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community those who are on twitters if
you like my video please guys you know I
you know it takes time to make this
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think oh my inputs are my contents are
you know great please I would really
appreciate if you can share with others
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thank you see you tomorrow morning 9 30.
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