Tantangan Ekonomi Indonesia Usai Lebaran [Metro Hari Ini]

Summary

The Indonesian economy faces challenges following the Lebaran holiday, with the Rupiah reaching a historic low of Rp17,200 per US Dollar, exacerbated by US trade tariffs. Money circulation during the holiday is expected to drop by Rp20 trillion compared to 2024, partly due to a 24% decline in travelers (mudik). Economic uncertainty has caused people to hold back on spending, especially for non-essential items. The job market may also suffer, particularly in labor-intensive sectors. The government is negotiating with ASEAN countries to address these issues and mitigate the economic impact of US tariffs.

Takeaways

• 😀 The Indonesian rupiah has dropped to a historic low of Rp17,200 per US dollar.
• 😀 The economic impact of Lebaran (Eid) festivities has not been as significant this year, with the circulation of Lebaran money predicted to decline by Rp20 trillion compared to last year.
• 😀 The predicted circulation of money during the 2025 Lebaran holiday is Rp137.97 trillion, down from Rp157.3 trillion in 2024.
• 😀 The decrease in circulation is attributed to a lower number of people traveling for Lebaran, with an estimated 146.48 million travelers in 2025, a 24% drop compared to 2024.
• 😀 Many people are choosing to hold off on discretionary spending, such as travel and leisure shopping, due to economic uncertainty and concerns over employment stability.
• 😀 The external economic challenges, particularly US trade policies under President Trump, are making Indonesia's economic outlook more difficult.
• 😀 The US has imposed a 32% tariff on Indonesian exports, affecting the trade relationship and putting pressure on the Indonesian economy.
• 😀 Indonesia is negotiating with ASEAN countries to address the trade tariffs and recalibrate its approach to US relations.
• 😀 Despite the tough economic conditions, the government must act quickly to restore optimism and mitigate further declines in the rupiah and stock markets.
• 😀 The combination of internal and external economic pressures continues to pose significant risks to Indonesia's economic stability.

Q & A

What is the current exchange rate of the Indonesian rupiah mentioned in the transcript?

The Indonesian rupiah has weakened to IDR 17,200 per U.S. dollar, marking the lowest level in history.

Why was the money circulation during Lebaran expected to decrease this year?

The money circulation during Lebaran was predicted to decrease by IDR 20 trillion compared to the previous year due to a reduction in the number of people traveling for the holiday and a more cautious spending behavior.

What factors contributed to the decrease in the number of people traveling for Lebaran this year?

The number of people traveling for Lebaran decreased due to economic uncertainty, with concerns about job security and a reduction in overall consumer confidence.

How many people are expected to travel for Lebaran in 2025, according to the survey?

The survey indicates that only 146.48 million people are expected to travel for Lebaran in 2025, which is a 24% decrease compared to the previous year.

What impact has the U.S. trade policy under Donald Trump had on Indonesia’s economy?

The U.S. trade policy under Donald Trump, particularly the 32% import duty on Indonesian products, has placed additional pressure on Indonesia's economy, potentially disrupting trade and economic stability.

What are Indonesia's efforts to counter the impact of the U.S. trade tariffs?

Indonesia is negotiating with other ASEAN countries to address the tariffs and encourage the U.S. to reconsider the import duty. The Indonesian government is also pursuing agreements with ASEAN members to strengthen economic ties.

What role does the job market play in the cautious spending behavior observed during Lebaran?

The job market plays a significant role in cautious spending behavior, as many people are concerned about economic pressures and potential job losses, particularly in labor-intensive industries. This has led people to limit excessive spending and save for emergencies.

What is the expected circulation of money during the 2025 Lebaran period?

The projected circulation of money during the 2025 Lebaran period is IDR 137.97 trillion, which is lower by IDR 20 trillion compared to the 2024 period.

How did the weakening of the rupiah affect Indonesia’s stock market?

The weakening of the rupiah has contributed to instability in Indonesia’s stock market, further adding to the economic challenges the country is facing.

What is the government's response to the challenges in Indonesia’s economy, as mentioned in the transcript?

The government is taking measures to address the economic challenges by engaging in negotiations to resolve the tariff issues with the U.S. and working with ASEAN countries to stabilize the economy. The government is also focusing on restoring optimism and confidence in the market.