O problema populacional por trás do fim da política do filho único na China

Summary

In 2020, China recorded its lowest birth rate in 60 years, sparking a policy shift allowing families to have up to three children. This change follows decades of strict population control, beginning with the one-child policy in 1979, which led to gender imbalances and social consequences. Despite earlier reforms, the country’s birth rate remains low, largely due to economic factors and cultural shifts. Experts doubt the new policy alone will reverse the trend, suggesting that greater social support for families, such as subsidies for childcare and education, is necessary to ensure long-term demographic stability.

Takeaways

• 😀 In 2020, China recorded its lowest number of births in 60 years, with only 12 million babies born.
• 😀 The number of births in China is significantly higher than Brazil's (2.6 million), but it is still the lowest for China since the 1960s.
• 😀 In response, the Chinese government relaxed its birth policy in May 2020, allowing couples to have up to three children.
• 😀 In 1979, China introduced the one-child policy to control its rapidly growing population, as it neared 1 billion people.
• 😀 Violating the one-child policy led to penalties, such as fines, loss of employment, and forced abortions or sterilizations.
• 😀 The one-child policy resulted in gender imbalances, with 35 million more men than women in China by 2020.
• 😀 Despite initial success in slowing population growth, long-term low fertility rates are attributed to economic and social development, not just policy.
• 😀 By 2050, over a quarter of China's population will be over 65 years old, and the country's fertility rate is one of the lowest globally.
• 😀 In 2016, China ended the one-child policy, allowing two children per family, but the policy change did not lead to a sustained birthrate increase.
• 😀 The recent policy shift to allow three children has sparked debate, with many questioning if this will solve the low birthrate problem.
• 😀 The younger generation, especially in urban areas, is less interested in having larger families due to career ambitions, high living costs, and social challenges.
• 😀 Experts argue that to reverse the low birthrate, more comprehensive measures are needed, such as financial incentives for child-rearing and housing support.

Q & A

Why did China introduce a birth control policy in the late 1970s?

China introduced a birth control policy in the late 1970s due to concerns about the potential economic and environmental impact of its rapidly growing population, which was approaching 1 billion people. The government feared that unchecked population growth would hinder their ambitious economic development plans.

What was the one-child policy and how did it impact families?

The one-child policy, introduced in 1979, prohibited families from having more than one child. Families that violated this rule faced penalties such as fines, loss of employment, and in some cases, forced abortions or sterilizations. This policy, combined with cultural preferences for male children, led to a significant gender imbalance and many girls being abandoned or placed in orphanages.

What was the gender imbalance caused by the one-child policy?

The one-child policy, combined with a cultural preference for sons, led to a significant gender imbalance. By 2020, there were nearly 35 million more men than women in China, which has had long-term social and economic consequences.

What were the consequences of the low birth rate in China by 2020?

By 2020, China faced one of the lowest birth rates in decades, with only 12 million births, the lowest number in 60 years. This has resulted in an aging population, with projections showing that over a quarter of the population will be over 65 by 2050. The low birth rate poses challenges to the economy, as it could lead to a shrinking workforce and a higher dependency ratio between retirees and workers.

Why did China move from a one-child policy to a two-child policy in 2016?

In 2016, China ended the one-child policy and allowed families to have two children. This shift was driven by the concerns about the aging population and shrinking workforce, with the hope that encouraging larger families would boost the birth rate and help balance the demographic challenges.

Why did the two-child policy not have the desired effect in China?

The two-child policy did not have the expected long-term impact because the underlying issues affecting birth rates, such as the high cost of living, career pressures, and changing social norms, were not addressed. Many families remained reluctant to have more children, citing economic concerns and personal preferences.

What prompted China to allow families to have up to three children in 2020?

In 2020, China introduced a policy allowing families to have up to three children, hoping to address the demographic crisis caused by the aging population and low birth rates. This policy shift was seen as a response to the failure of the previous two-child policy to effectively increase the birth rate.

What are the concerns surrounding the new three-child policy in China?

Concerns about the three-child policy include doubts about its effectiveness, given that previous reforms did not lead to sustained increases in birth rates. Critics argue that economic pressures, high living costs, and changing societal attitudes toward family size will continue to discourage large families, and some question the necessity of limiting the number of children to three.

How do urban and rural areas in China differ in their attitudes toward family size?

In rural areas, traditional values and a desire for larger families remain strong, while in urban areas, particularly in cities like Beijing and Shanghai, the concept of success has shifted. Many young professionals prioritize personal growth and career advancement over having larger families. Additionally, urban women often delay or avoid pregnancy due to work-related discrimination and lack of incentives for family support.

What are the long-term challenges China faces regarding its population and economy?

China faces the challenge of an aging population, with a shrinking workforce and a growing number of elderly citizens. This demographic shift could lead to a reduction in economic productivity, a higher dependency ratio, and potential slowdowns in economic growth. Experts argue that policies to support families, such as subsidies for childcare and housing, will be essential to address these issues.