When China stopped having children

Summary

The video examines how China's population growth boomed after the 1960s, reaching 650 million, but then declined rapidly due to the one-child policy starting in 1979. This policy, along with urbanization and societal changes, made China's fertility rate one of the lowest in the world at 1.5 children per woman. However, the aging population and shrinking workforce is now a concern. Although the one-child policy ended in 2015, norms favor small families. UN predictions estimate China's population peaking at 1.4 billion before declining by 400 million by 2100. This shrinking population underscores economic challenges ahead.

Takeaways

• 😲 China had a huge drop in fertility rate from 1970-1980, going from 6 to 2.5 children per woman in just 10 years
• 😮 The one-child policy in China starting in 1979 used propaganda, incentives and punishments to limit families to one child
• 😢 The one-child policy resulted in forced abortions, sterilizations and unregistered children without rights
• 😠 There was a strong preference for sons leading to gender imbalance and millions of missing girls
• 👵 China's population growth is slowing and the country is rapidly aging
• 😰 The working age population is shrinking while the older population keeps increasing
• 📉 China's total population likely to decline significantly in coming decades
• 🔄 China recently switched to a two-child policy but facing uphill battle to increase fertility rate
• 😐 Low fertility rate and aging population also an issue in Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore
• 🤔 UN predictions may underestimate speed and scale of China's population decline

Q & A

What was China's fertility rate in the 1960s?

In the 1960s, China had a fertility rate of six babies born per woman.

What was the goal of Mao's Great Leap Forward?

The Great Leap Forward aimed to increase foreign trade by exporting life-supporting crops while nationalizing farmland and enforcing strict government prices on harvests.

How long did it take for China's fertility rate to drop from almost 6 to 2.5 children per woman?

China's fertility rate dropped from almost 6 to 2.5 children per woman in just 10 years, from 1970 to 1980.

What was the main feature of China's one-child policy?

Under the one-child policy, Chinese families were expected to have no more than one child, with few exceptions.

What were some consequences of China's one-child policy?

Consequences of the one-child policy included forced abortions, sterilizations, unregistered children denied rights and services, and gender imbalance due to preference for male children.

How has the one-child policy impacted China's population growth?

The one-child policy has contributed to very low fertility rates in China, slowing population growth significantly.

What is predicted about China's future population size?

China's population is predicted to decrease by 64 million by 2050 and by 400 million by 2100, to about 1 billion people.

How does China's aging population impact its economy?

China's aging population puts pressure on the smaller younger workforce to support larger older generations, impacting economic growth.

What is China doing now regarding its low fertility rate?

Since 2015 China has scrapped its one-child policy and now promotes parents having more children to secure the future workforce.

Why is it difficult for China to increase its fertility rate?

Increasing fertility faces challenges like entrenched small family norms, increased urbanization and cost of living, and limited immigration.

Outlines

00:00

😨 The One-Child Policy Drastically Reduced China's Fertility Rate But Had Harsh Consequences

Paragraph 1 discusses China's one-child policy, which was implemented in 1979. It led to a dramatic decline in China's fertility rate, dropping from nearly 6 children per woman in 1970 to around 2.5 by 1980. However, the policy was brutally enforced, involving forced abortions, sterilizations, unregistered "black" children lacking citizenship rights, and gender imbalances from preference for sons. Millions suffered under this restrictive policy before some provisions were finally relaxed in recent years.

05:00

😔 China's Population Will Peak then Decline Sharply Due to the One-Child Policy's Long-term Effects

Paragraph 2 explains how China's population is predicted to peak at 1.4 billion around 2031, before declining by 400 million by 2100. This is due to long-lasting low fertility rates caused by the one-child policy. An aging population with fewer working-age people will pressure China's economy. The policy was recently scrapped in favor of a two-child policy, but reversing low fertility trends is difficult after decades of small family norms. Factors like urbanization also reduce fertility rates. More extreme predictions estimate China's population may halve by 2100.

Keywords

💡fertility rate

The average number of children born per woman in a population. The video discusses how China's fertility rate dropped rapidly from nearly 6 children per woman in the 1960s to around 1.5 today due to the one-child policy and other social changes. This is contributing to China's aging population.

💡one-child policy

China's policy from 1979-2015 that restricted most families to having only one child. This was enforced through propaganda, social pressure, incentives and punishments. It led to gender-selective abortions and abandonment of female infants due to a cultural preference for sons.

💡gender imbalance

An unequal ratio of males to females in a population, often expressed as the number of males per 100 females. The video states China has close to 120 boys for every 100 girls age 0-15 due to the one-child policy and preference for sons, leading to millions of girls missing from the population.

💡aging population

A population having an increasing percentage of elderly people. The video predicts China's low fertility rate and aging population will create pressure on the smaller younger generations to support larger older generations in the future.

💡rural-urban migration

Movement of people from rural areas and farms to cities. The video mentions this is contributing to China's declining rural populations in less developed western regions.

💡total fertility rate

The average number of children a woman would have over her lifetime based on current birth rates. A rate of 2.1 is needed for population replacement. The video predicts China's rate will likely stay below 2.1 for decades.

💡demographic transition model

A model showing population change from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as a country develops economically. The video mentions this model helps explain declining fertility rates globally.

💡population decline

A reduction in a population over time due to low fertility rates, high death rates, and/or emigration abroad. The video predicts China's population will start declining by 2025 and shrink by 400 million people by 2100.

💡gender roles

Socially defined roles, behaviors and norms considered appropriate for men and women. The video states China has highly traditional gender roles that fueled a preference for sons under the one-child policy.

💡population policy

A governmental plan or program to influence population growth rates. China's one-child policy aimed to rapidly reduce population growth, while the new two-child policy aims to increase births due to the aging crisis.

Highlights

China had high fertility rates and high child mortality in the 1960s

China's fertility rate dropped rapidly from 1970-1980 due to government propaganda and policies

The one-child policy starting in 1979 used incentives and punishments to limit families to one child

The one-child policy led to forced abortions, female infanticide, and millions of unregistered children

There are now around 120 boys for every 100 girls aged 0-15 in China due to the preference for sons

China's population is predicted to peak around 2030 and then decline by 400 million by 2100

India is predicted to surpass China as the world's most populous country in 2031

China's population is concentrated in the east, while western rural areas face depopulation

China's aging population and shrinking workforce will put pressure on social services

The one-child policy has deeply rooted small family norms in China that persist despite policy changes

Low fertility rates in East Asia indicate China is unlikely to increase birth rates significantly

China's population decline could be faster than UN predictions due to lower birth rate assumptions

China's population may decline to just 684 million by 2100, less than half its peak

Social norms for small families are now deeply rooted in China after decades of interventions

China is unlikely to increase immigration enough to offset population declines

Transcripts

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humans are not having children the way

they used to and the course of the last

hundred years most countries on earth

have gone from every woman having on

average five or six children many of

them dying before reaching childbearing

age to women in most countries having

two or three children and almost all of

them growing up healthy to adulthood and

having one or two children of their own

this development is resulting in rapid

population increase when children are

surviving and people are living longer

and healthier lives

the population increases the number of

children couples decide to have

decreased to around point of

reproduction when every couple on

average have two children this although

happens with the delay of one or two

generations and is explained by the

demographic transition which we will

come back to in a future video even

though the trend is the same the change

has gone with different speed in

different countries and worse things

intervene with family planning measures

the decline in fertility rate can go

fast

[Music]

China in the 1960s had a population of

around 650 million and a fertility rate

of six babies born per woman around a

quarter of all children died before the

age of five and the numbers were

especially bad during the so-called

Great Leap Forward an effort of Mao's

regime to increase foreign trade by

exporting life-supporting crops while

nationalizing farmland from private

owners and enforcing strict government

set prices on harvests pushing

agriculture outputs out of sync with

actual consumption needs and starting

the greatest famine of human history the

Chinese government was much like most of

the world visa fighting a perceived

threat of overpopulation and was with

propaganda campaigns trying to establish

social norms and reducing the fertility

rate of Chinese women and from 1970 to

1980 the rate dropped from almost six to

two and a half in just 10 years

the equivalent drop took for example the

United States eight years between 1850

in 1930 India did within sixty years

Brazilian 35 another nation developing

very fast in the Far East South Korea

did it in 20

then came the policy of one child with

few exceptions Chinese families were

expected to have no more than one child

from the time of the policy going into

effect in 1979 the enforcement was

conducted on the local level with great

variations of style in intensity and was

using soft weapons like propaganda and

social pressure to positive offers to

couple's conforming with the system of

money prioritized enrollment in schools

for the child preferable housing

opportunities and retirement funds but

also harsh negative impacts on couples

deciding to have another child like

forced abortions and sterilization

inflicting physical and mental scars on

tens of millions of people

the system also resulted in many

children being raised unregistered by

the government just due to them having

older siblings and their parents unable

to pay the fines associated with

registering multiple children for a

family fines often the equivalent of

several years of income these millions

of children are living their lives

without citizenship and hence are kept

out of education employment and the

opportunity to marry and raise a family

of their own even though some

restrictions have been lifted in the

last few years this is still the reality

for many of the children being born out

of wedlock whereas a second or third

child

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the one-child policy was introduced in a

country with highly traditional gender

roles the preference for many families

to have sons to raise income supporting

aging parents and marrying a future wife

into the family led to gender selective

abortions and the abandoning and even

killing or female infants this is

causing a gender imbalance with millions

of girls missing from the population and

still today there are close to 120 boys

for every 100 girls between the ages of

0 and 15 in China way above the world

average of 105 to 103 regions and

villages where the disparity is even

higher it is worth to mention here that

many other aspects of fertility decline

is at play like for the rest of the

world female education a decline in

agricultural dependency urbanization the

decline in child mortality and female

political empowerment maybe not so much

the last one regarding China

specifically it's affecting the 50 of

the rate and pushing it downward in many

countries rapidly but the shift that

happened in China that have resulted in

one of the lowest numbers in the world a

1.5 or 1.6 children born per woman has

been the reality now for the last 25

years and the question is what will

happen to it in the future

the population of China is at 1.4

billion people today but the growth rate

is coming to a halt and the number will

start to decline according to the UN

medium prediction in 2031 India will

pass as the most populated country four

years before that the regional divide in

China is striking almost the entire

population lives in the eastern parts of

the nation while the rural regions the

West are sparsely populated and the

population losses due to urbanization

and perceived economic opportunities

pulling migration away from the rural

areas

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the population is predicted to decrease

with 64 million from its peak by 2050

and by the year 2100 down by 400 million

to just over 1 billion people this will

put a large pressure on the smaller

younger age groups supporting large

parent and grandparent generations with

the clear reduction in working age

population while the older are

increasing in share of the total

population and living longer lives the

one-child policy and the long term low

fertility rate of the modern-day Chinese

society will make the country age faster

its median age passing the United States

and closing in on its neighbor Japan

over the coming decades since 2015 the

one-child policy is officially scrapped

for a more flexible with Chinese

standards to child policy China is once

again promoting parents to have children

to secure the future working force and

economic development it is fighting an

uphill struggle a society that has

adopted a low fertility number has a

tendency to stay low and other factors

are working against the Chinese

government in this regard manufacturers

that has driven the economic development

of the last decades like fast

organization an increased cost of living

in the larger cities and the

career-focused lifestyle China is also

accepting few well-chosen no way

immigrants

and looking at the other nations in the

region does not give confidence that the

development can be turned around Japan

and South Korea are struggling with low

numbers themselves and in Hong Kong and

Singapore the fertility rate might even

be below 1 now the UN medium prediction

mentioned earlier leading to a reduction

of population by 400 million in just 70

years might even turn out to be a very

conservative estimate Darrel Bricker and

John Abbott s'en org using an empty

planet in 2019 that the UN medium

variant relies too much on earlier

experience of neighboring nations not

factoring in the rapid shift in

educational development and urbanization

and predicting a slight increase in

fertility rate over the coming decades

closing in on point of reproduction

something the authors find much unlikely

the social norms promoting small

families with one or two children have

after decades of government

interventions deeply rooted themselves

in the Chinese society instead the low

estimate by the UN it's much more likely

to be the case for China this would mean

the population would start to decline in

just five years from now passing under

1.3 billion by 2050 and then we cut in

half in the next coming 50 years to just

684 million by 2100

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