Is Europe drowning in debt? | DW News
Summary
TLDR欧州中央銀行は、フランスやイタリアを含むいくつかのEU国が過剰な支出を行っていると警告しました。しかし、経済学者であるジョル・ダルワッシュ氏は、現在危険性は高くないと語ります。仏イタリアはGDPの110%と140%の公的借金を抱えており、EU規則に反するが、調整は可能です。COVID-19パンデミックやロシアのウクライナ侵攻後のエネルギー価格高騰に伴い、膨大な公的支出が行われましたが、これは縮小される必要があります。EU選挙が近づく中、インフレが人々の予算に影響を与えており、貧困と社会排斥が最も重要な問題となっています。しかし、政府は支出を削減し、無駄なお金を見つける必要があります。極右政党の支持は高まっており、彼らが選挙で獲得する議席が増えると予想されていますが、彼らが実権を握っても経済政策は現実に直面するでしょう。
Takeaways
- 🏛️ ヨーロッパ中央銀行は、フランスやイタリアなどのEU諸国が過剰な支出をしていると警告しています。
- 📉 公的借金がGDPの110%を超えるフランスや約140%のイタリアは、EUの財政赤字と公的借金の上限を超過しています。
- 🔄 EUは財政調整を求めており、財政赤字が3%を超える国々は調整を行わなければなりません。
- 😌 しかし、専門家は現在公的借金危機が起こる危険は高くないと見ています。
- 💡 COVID-19パンデミックやロシアのウクライナ侵攻によるエネルギー価格高騰に伴い、EU諸国は大規模な公的支出を行ってきました。
- 📉 現在、27か国中11か国が財政赤字の上限を超えており、これにより過剰な財政赤字手続きが始まります。
- 🛑 新しい財政フレームワークにより、公的借金の持続可能性を確保するための財政調整が要求されます。
- 🗳️ 来週の欧州議会選挙では、インフレが人々の予算に影響を与えており、経済問題が最も重要な議題となっています。
- 💸 政府は支出を削減する必要がありますが、無駄な支出を整理し、選挙者にとって重要な分野への支出を優先することが求められます。
- 👥 極右政党がEU選挙で議席を獲得する可能性があるが、彼らが財政政策に与える影響は限定的であると見られています。
- 📉 ヨーロッパ中央銀行はインフレを抑えるために金利を引き上げており、金利が低下しても政府にとってはあまり救済は提供されないと見ています。
Q & A
ヨーロッパ中央銀行はどのくらいの公共債務が危険とされているかを警告していますか?
-ヨーロッパ中央銀行は、フランスやイタリアなどのEU諸国が過剰な支出をしていると警告していますが、その危険性は高くないと言っています。フランスの公共債務はGDPの約110%、イタリアはGDPの約140%と、EU憲法が設定した3%の予算赤字上限と60%のGDPに対する公的借金上限を超過していますが、調整は可能です。
EUの予算赤字上限はどれくらいですか?
-EUの憲法により、加盟国はGDPの3%を超える予算赤字を起こすことが禁止されています。しかし、現在では27か国のうち11か国がこの上限を超えて支出しています。
COVID-19パンデミックが始まった際、EU諸国はどのように対応しましたか?
-COVID-19パンデミックが2020年に発生した際、EU諸国は人命を救うためと経済を支援するために大規模な新たな公共支出プログラムを導入しました。
ロシアによるウクライナの侵攻がエネルギー価格をどのように影響しましたか?
-ロシアによるウクライナの侵攻の影響でエネルギー価格が急上昇し、多くのEU諸国が家庭、企業、自治体などに大きな支援を提供しました。
EUの過剰な予算赤字手続とは何ですか?
-EUの過剰な予算赤字手続は、加盟国が3%以上のGDP予算赤字を起こした場合に、欧州理事会がその国が行う必要のある財政調整の量を決定するプロセスです。
EU選挙が迫っている中、選挙に参加できる人々は何を最も重要な課題と認識していますか?
-EU選挙を控え、最新の調査によると、貧困と社会排斥が最も重要な課題とされており、公衆衛生、経済支援、防御、気候変動を上回っています。
EU諸国の政府は支出を削減する必要があるとされていますが、どのように対応する予定ですか?
-EU諸国の政府は、予算赤字や公的借金が高すぎる場合、支出を削減したり税金を増やす必要がありますが、これらの措置は人気がありません。政府は無駄な支出を削減し、選挙者にとって最も重要な支出を優先する必要があります。
極右政党がEU選挙で議席を獲得する可能性があるとされていますが、彼らは支出政策にどのような影響を与えるでしょうか?
-極右政党が獲得する議席が増えると予想されていますが、過去の例からも、彼らが現実に直面すると、予算赤字や公的借金が高すぎる場合に注意深く支出する必要があると認識するでしょう。
ヨーロッパ中央銀行はインフレを抑えるために金利を引き上げていますが、これにより政府はより多くの支出を行う余裕が得られるでしょうか?
-2022年にヨーロッパ中央銀行はインフレを抑えるために金利を引き上げており、現在は22年ぶりの高い水準の4.5%にありますが、金利が些細な減少を遂げる場合でも、政府にとっては大きな余裕を得られるとは限りません。
将来的には、EU諸国の公的借金が持続可能であるためにはどれくらいの比率が適切ですか?
-EU憲法によると、公的借金比率はGDPの60%を超えてはならないとされていますが、これは比較的低い水準であり、EU諸国は100%前後で持続可能であると見なされています。
Outlines
🏛️ EUの財政状況と選挙への影響
ヨーロッパ中央銀行は、フランスやイタリアを含むいくつかのEU国が過剰な支出を行っていると警告しました。しかし、専門家は現在危険性が高いとは思わないと述べています。フランスの公的借金はGDPの約110%、イタリアは約140%と、EU条約が設定した3%の予算赤字上限と60%のGDPに対する公的借金上限を超過していますが、調整は可能です。COVID-19パンデミックやロシアのウクライナ侵攻によるエネルギー価格高騰に対する対応として、EU諸国は膨大な支出を行っており、これは縮小する必要があります。11か国が3%を超える予算赤字を記録しており、これにより欧州理事会がこれらの国に対して財政調整を決定するでしょう。しかし、過剰な予算赤字手続き自体は、特定の問題を引き起こすとは考えられていません。
🗳️ 選挙と財政支出の関係性
EU選挙が近づく中、インフレが人々の予算に影響を与えており、経済支援は選挙の主要な議題となっています。EU諸国の政府は、公的借金や予算赤字が高い場合には支出を削減したり税金を増やす必要があり、これは人気がありません。しかし、政府は無駄な支出を削減し、選挙に重要な支出を優先させることが可能です。極右政党がEU選挙で議席を獲得する可能性があると予想されていますが、過去5年間の経験から、彼らが財政政策に大きな影響を与えるとは限りません。また、EU中央銀行はインフレを抑えるために金利を引き上げており、金利が低下しても政府にとっては大きなリリーフは提供されないと見ています。
💼 公的借金の持続可能性と経済政策
専門家は、EU諸国の公的借金が持続可能であると見ています。EU条約における60%のGDPに対する公的借金上限は、実際には低いとされ、アメリカや日本の公的借金比率と比較されています。専門家は、GDPの100%程度の公的借金比率が持続可能であり、リスクを冒す必要はないと述べています。しかし、警戒心を失うことはなく、適切な経済政策を維持し続けることが重要です。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡European Central Bank
💡Public Debt
💡Budget Deficit
💡Fiscal Adjustment
💡Excessive Deficit Procedure
💡Inflation
💡Interest Rates
💡European Parliament Elections
💡Radical Right Parties
💡Sustainable Debt
Highlights
European Central Bank warns some EU countries are spending too much money.
Concerns raised over high public debt levels in Europe.
Jolt Darwash, senior fellow at the European economics tank, discusses the situation.
France and Italy's public debt is significantly above EU treaty limits.
Darwash believes the danger of high debt is not high currently.
EU countries will need to implement fiscal adjustment in coming years.
11 out of 27 EU members are currently overspending.
Massive public spending introduced due to COVID-19 pandemic and energy price hikes.
Excessive deficit procedure to determine fiscal adjustment for countries in debt.
Darwash does not foresee a public debt crisis in the Euro Zone.
European Parliament elections are influenced by economic concerns.
Inflation and poverty are top concerns for European voters.
Governments have limited room for maneuver in spending due to high debt.
Governments should rationalize spending and find savings.
Far-right parties' rise in popularity may not significantly impact spending policies.
Even extreme parties tend to adopt sensible fiscal policies when in power.
European Central Bank's interest rate hikes aim to curb inflation.
Expected small cut in interest rates unlikely to give governments more spending room.
Darwash is not overly concerned about debt levels being sustainable in Europe.
European countries can sustain higher debt levels than the EU treaty limit.
Transcripts
some European countries are spending too
much money that's according to the
European Central Bank is Europe's public
debt too high and what does it mean for
the European elections with me here to
discuss is jolt darwash senior fellow at
the European economics s tank bugal jol
in its latest spring review the European
Central Bank has warned that some EU
countries like France and Italy are
spending too much money is Europe really
in danger of being too indebted
there's a danger of course there but I
don't think that this danger is high now
French public debt is around 110% of GDP
in Italy it's about
40% both countries have a had a budget
deficit of more than 5% of GDP last year
these values are well over the 3% limit
set by the EU treaty for the budget
deficit it and the 60% of GDP limit for
the public debt but also you know the
adjustment requirement is doable both
countries and also many other EU
countries will have to implement fiscal
adjustment in the coming years according
to the recently changed European fiscal
rules but I think that this is doable
and I do not foresee a public death
crisis in the Euro
Zone and you just mentioned that EU
rules stipulate that member countries
are not allowed to run more than a 3%
budget deficit so spend 3% more money
than they receive in taxes and other
revenues essentially and according to
that rule 11 out of 27 members are
spending too much at the moment that
includes countries like Spain Belgium
the Czech Republic and Italy how did we
get here are governments spending more
than usual at the
moment when the covid-19 pandemic hit
the world and the European Union in
2020 then all European Union countries
introduced massive new public spending
programs first of all to save lives but
also to support the economy then two
years later energy prices
skyrocketed partly due to Russia's
invasion of Ukraine and again many
European countries provided massive
supports energy price supports to
household corporates municipalities and
the like so this very large unusual
public spending have to be scaled back
and at the same time you know economies
were relatively weak uh over the past
few years so yes I mean this situation
is somewhat unusual and indeed about 11
countries have more than 3% of GDP
budget deficit this will imply that
these count countries will enter a
so-called excessive deficit procedure so
the European Council will determine how
much fiscal adjustment these countries
will have to do in the years to
come excessive deficit procedure this
sounds kind of dangerous but does this
actually represent a big problem for the
EU I don't think
so um so first of all the new fiscal
framework
which has been just uh uh came into
effect at the end of April will
stipulate that countries will have to do
a fiscal adjustment to ensure that the
public debt is
sustainable now this will require uh a
certain annual fiscal adjustment from
all those countries which have
relatively High public debt levels now
for those countries which additionally
have large budget deficit meaning that
more than
3% and the new rules say similarly to
the old rules that at least half% of GDP
annual adjustment will have to be done
but according to our calculations all of
these countries would need to do even a
bit more to ensure that their public
debt levels uh will return to a safe
trajectory so in my view this excessive
deficit procedure wouldn't cause
any specific problem to those countries
which will face it later this
year okay but bottom line is some
governments are going to have to spend
less ultimately now the European
Parliament elections are happening next
week that means 400 million people will
be able to cast their ballot on which
party should represent them in Brussels
with inflation cutting into people's
budgets money is at the top of many
voters Minds in a recent survey poverty
and social exclusion were the top
priorities of European voters ranking
above public health support for the
economy defense and climate change so
voters are clearly worried about money
what does that mean for governments who
should be spending
less most European Union governments
will have a relatively little room for
maneuver in terms of their overall
spending
because you know if there is a the
public debt is too high or the budget
deficit is too high they have to cut
National spending or increase taxes none
of these measures uh are popular but
what governments can also do at the same
time is to try to rationalize their
current spending in every
budget wasteful spending and parallel
spending can be found so in addition to
cutting overall levels of of spending
you know they should they should find
savings sensible savings and obviously
they should prioritize those spending
which are most relevant for the voters
including measures alleviating poverty
and social
exclusions now the far right has
increased in popularity across Europe
whether that's the afd here in Germany
the national rally in France or the
governing Brothers of Italy party of
Georgia Maloney many are predicting that
radical right parties will also gain
seats across the EU this El election if
that does happen What impact would these
parties have on spending
policies now first let me recall that 5
years ago the same fear was raised and
it didn't
materialize now it wouldn't imply that
it would not happen this time again but
I would don't expect that there will be
a massive gain for Far Right party uh
across Europe now we also seen that for
example in Italy you know um um some of
the parties in the in the government are
are considered to some extent extreme
yet you know the Italian government in
the past few years did a relatively you
know sensible fiscal policy so so
whenever even an extreme party comes to
power then those Party leaders you know
will face the reality that you know if
the budget deficit is too high or the
public that is too high then you know
they should be very very careful on how
they spend the money because if they
don't uh their country might face you
know a major lack of confidence which
can result in a rise in interest rate
and you know the one thing that nobody
wants to do is paying more interest on
public debt so um also when power comes
with responsibility and U I mean
responsibility will neate sensible
economic policy
speaking of interest in 2022 the
European Central Bank began hiking
interest rates to bring down soaring
inflation currently interest rates are
at a 22-year high at 4.5% now recently
Euro Zone inflation has been on a gentle
downward slope and the ECB is expected
to cut interest rates next week would
this give governments more room to
spend not really because the expected
cut is 25 basis points so let's say from
4% to
3.75% now this
certainly something I mean not not
keeping the rates unchanged but it it go
down and it might go down also in later
in the rest of the year but overall I
wouldn't expect very big interested Cuts
in the in the coming years moreover the
the new interest rate only applies on
the borrowing you know which comes after
the rate cut but you know Italy with
140% of public debt you know the
existing debt will continue to to pay
the interest rate at which Italian
governments borrowed in the in the past
so even if interest rates go down it
will take a long long time until the
average borrowing cost also goes down so
I'm afraid this will offer little relief
for
governments okay you don't sound so
pessimistic for the immediate future but
with
inflation going down and interest rates
going down as well even if just a little
do you reckon too much debt will
continue to be a problem in the years
ahead for countries across
Europe one always have to be you know
Vigilant uh but overall I'm not very
much
concerned and the reason is that the 60%
of GDP
public debt ratio limit which is in the
European Union treaty is much lower than
what European Union countries can
sustain mean we can look at you know
public debt in the United States you
know 13 40% or or Japan more than 200%
of of GDP so I think the 60% rate is is
very low and if countries have somewhat
higher let's say around 100% of GDP
rates I think they can sustain it
without risking
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