Why Syria’s Civil War Has Restarted

Summary

The video explores the recent escalation in the Syrian Civil War, focusing on a new rebel offensive against Assad's forces near Aleppo. Despite a ceasefire holding since 2020, this violence has flared up due to factors like regional instability, Israeli actions in Lebanon, and shifting dynamics with Turkey. The rebels, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have made rapid gains, cutting off key roads and threatening Assad's control. The video delves into the complexities of the Syrian conflict and its implications for the region, while also highlighting how learning platforms like Brilliant offer ways to better understand such global issues.

Takeaways

• 😀 The Syrian Civil War began in 2011 with protests against President Bashar al-Assad's regime, leading to a brutal response from the government.
• 😀 The war can be divided into three phases: initial rebel gains, the rise of ISIS, and a shift toward regional influence with Russian and Iranian support for Assad.
• 😀 By 2020, a ceasefire brokered by Turkey and Russia effectively divided Syria into different zones controlled by the Kurds, rebels, and Assad.
• 😀 Recent violence in Syria has escalated, with the Islamist rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launching an offensive on Aleppo, recapturing key positions.
• 😀 The offensive is partly attributed to the instability surrounding Israel and Hezbollah, which has redirected forces away from Syria.
• 😀 HTS launched their assault on Aleppo before Hezbollah could redeploy its forces back to Syria, aiming to take advantage of the weakened government position.
• 😀 The recent uptick in Syrian and Russian airstrikes on rebel positions in Idlib suggested a new government offensive, but the ceasefire in Lebanon disrupted these plans.
• 😀 Turkey, which has historically supported the rebels, was exploring rapprochement with Assad, but recent actions suggest this has stalled due to ongoing conflicts.
• 😀 The rebel offensive against Assad’s forces could either be a strategic move to preempt an upcoming government attack or a response to ongoing airstrikes in Idlib.
• 😀 The ongoing conflict risks destabilizing Syria's fragile peace, which could result in more suffering for ordinary Syrians, especially in the short term.

Q & A

What is the current situation in Syria as described in the video?

The situation in Syria has been relatively calm in recent years, with Bashar al-Assad reasserting control over most of the country. However, a ceasefire negotiated by Turkey and Russia in 2020 preserved a rebel holdout in the Northwest, while a U.S. military presence has shielded a Kurdish state in the Northeast. Recently, violence has flared up again, with anti-Assad rebels launching a successful offensive near Aleppo.

What triggered the recent rebel offensive in Syria?

The recent rebel offensive was triggered by a combination of factors. First, the instability around Israel, including Israel's assault on Hezbollah in Lebanon, which led to a redirection of Iranian and Hezbollah forces. Additionally, Syrian and Russian airstrikes against rebel positions in the past month increased tensions, setting the stage for the offensive.

What was the role of the ceasefire negotiated by Turkey and Russia in 2020?

The 2020 ceasefire negotiated by Turkey and Russia helped preserve a fragile peace by preventing further escalation of the conflict. It resulted in the establishment of four de facto states in Syria: a Kurdish state in the Northeast, a Turkish buffer state, a rebel stronghold in Idlib, and Assad-controlled areas comprising most of the country.

Why did Turkey negotiate a ceasefire with Russia in 2020?

Turkey negotiated the ceasefire to balance its interests in Syria, particularly to counter Kurdish separatism in the region. Turkey feared that a Kurdish state in Northern Syria would fuel separatist sentiments within Turkey and provide support to Kurdish terrorist groups. Additionally, Turkey has longstanding opposition to Assad's regime.

What role do Hezbollah and Iran play in the Syrian conflict?

Hezbollah and Iran have been key backers of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria. Their support, including military and logistical assistance, has been crucial in helping Assad regain control over much of Syria. The conflict with Israel and Hezbollah’s redirection of forces to Southern Lebanon has created an opening for the rebels.

What happened after the rebels launched their offensive near Aleppo?

The rebels made swift progress, seizing Syrian Army positions and villages in the first 24 hours of the offensive. They cut off the M5 highway at key points and reached the western outskirts of Aleppo. The Syrian government responded with airstrikes, leading to at least 200 deaths as of the latest reports.

How did the recent airstrikes by Syria and Russia affect the rebels?

The airstrikes, which had been ongoing for the past month, were seen as a precursor to a government offensive against the rebels. The rebels launched their own offensive in response, both to preempt the government's attack and to galvanize local support in Idlib, which had been suffering from continued bombing.

What were the geopolitical reasons behind Assad’s recent actions despite external pressures?

Assad likely believed that the geopolitical landscape, including the diversion of Iranian and Hezbollah forces due to the conflict with Israel, gave him an opportunity to launch a new offensive. Additionally, he may have thought Turkey could be persuaded to reduce support for the rebels, which would stabilize Syria.

How has Israel's conflict with Hezbollah affected the Syrian Civil War?

Israel’s conflict with Hezbollah has led to a reallocation of resources by Iran and Hezbollah, which weakened Assad’s position in the region. This shift created an opening for the rebels to launch their offensive, taking advantage of the temporary reduction in support for Assad from these key allies.

What are the potential risks of the recent escalation in Syria?

The main risk is that the recent escalation could shatter the fragile peace in Syria, leading to more violence and suffering for ordinary Syrians. While the rebel offensive may be seen as a blow to Assad and his allies, it risks reigniting full-scale conflict, which would further destabilize the country.