Будут ли деньги в России? Переломный 2024 | Экономический рост и инаугурация | Игорь Рыбаков
Summary
TLDRСкрипт видео предоставляет анализ экономической ситуации и стратегий для бизнеса и личного роста в условиях нестабильности и возможного рецессионного сокращения. Автор высказывает свое мнение о текущем состоянии российской экономики, указывая на потенциальные риски и вызовы, такие как инфляция, высокое напряжение бюджета и зависимость от импорта. Он критикует иллюзии стабильности и предупреждает о возможном разрыве «экономического пузыря». Вместо этого предлагает конкретные рекомендации для предпринимателей и людей, как подготовиться к рецессии, включая диверсификацию источников дохода, экспериментирование с маркетинговыми стратегиями, фокус на долгосрочных целях, укрепление социального капитала и интердисциплинарность. Автор также подчеркивает важность здоровья, физического тонуса и саморазвития для обеспечения качества жизни и устойчивого развития.
Takeaways
- 📈 Россия продолжает демонстрировать экономический рост, но есть опасения, что текущая ситуация - иллюзия, и возможны негативные последствия.
- 💵 Инфляция и высокие процентные ставки могут стать проблемными, если экономическая "пузырь" начнет раздуваться и вдруг разорваться.
- 🚂 Россия не может удовлетворить собственное потребление промышленной продукции, что приводит к высокой стоимости товаров и низкой производительности.
- 🌐 Россия должна быть готова к возможному замедлению экономического роста и рецессии, особенно если расходы на дивиденды не будут направлены на новые предприятия.
- 🤔 Необходимо осознавать, что Россия не может полагаться на сотрудничество с другими странами без собственного производства товаров или значимости.
- 🛍️ Деньги, получаемые от экономического роста, должны быть направлены на долгосрочные инвестиции, а не на увеличение импорта или расширение существующей продукции.
- 👴 Советская экономика и последующие изменения в России отражают различные этапы развития, от развала Советского Союза до современного государственного капитализма.
- 🔄 В условиях экономического стресса предпринимателям следует диверсифицировать свои доходы, экспериментировать с маркетинговыми стратегиями и сосредоточиться на долгосрочных целях.
- 🤝 Социальный капитал и сеть связей являются важными для поддержки и сопротивления экономическим колебаниям.
- 🎓 Интердисциплинарность и саморазвитие являются ключевыми для выявления новых возможностей и укрепления позиций в экономическом пространстве.
- 🌿 Независимо от профессиональной деятельности, каждый человек должен следить за своим здоровьем, окружаться положительной компанией и инвестировать в свою образовательную и профессиональную подготовку.
Q & A
Что означает выражение 'платить через нос' в контексте скрипта?
-Это идиоматическое выражение, которое описывает ситуацию, когда кто-то платит чрезмерно высокую цену или оплачивает что-то гораздо больше, чем это стоит.
Какой прогноз по экономическому росту России звучит в скрипте?
-В скрипте упоминается, что экономика России ожидается расти примерно на 3% в текущем году.
Какие последствия могут возникнуть, если экономическая 'пузырь' России разорвется?
-Если экономическая 'пузырь' разорвется, это может привести к огромному замедлению, рецессии, увеличению инфляции и нестабильности рубля.
Каковы рекомендации для предпринимателей по подготовке к рецессии?
-Рекомендации включают диверсификацию источников дохода, экспериментирование с маркетинговыми стратегиями, сосредоточение на долгосрочных целях, укрепление социального капитала и работа в области междисциплинарности.
Почему говорящий не верит в долгосрочную кооперацию с Африкой, Индией и Китаем?
-Поскольку Россия и эти страны имеют различные менталитеты и культуры, а также отсутствуют практические возможности и инфраструктура для развития такого сотрудничества в краткосрочной перспективе.
Какие этапы развития экономики России описывает говорящий?
-Три этапа: постсоветская экономика 1990-х годов, рыночная экономика 2000-х с продажей нефти и газа, и нынешняя эра государственного капитализма с более чем 50% государственным вмешательством в экономику.
Чем, по мнению говорящего, Россия может стать сильным торговым партнером?
-Россия может стать сильным торговым партнером, если будет производить товары или значения (идею, культуру), которые заинтересуют других.
Какой совет дает говорящий людям, которые не являются бизнес-людьми, для преодоления трудных времен?
-Советы включают в себя поддержание здоровья и телосложения, избегание поглощения мусорной информации и инвестирование в саморазвитие и образование.
Почему говорящий считает, что Россия не должна ждать улучшения отношений с западными странами?
-Поскольку это может привести к упущению исторических возможностей, и Россия должна сосредоточиться на самоукреплении и развитии собственных возможностей.
Какие действия предпринимаются для поддержания экономического роста в России?
-Включают в себя стимулирование экономики через бюджет, стимулирование ипотечного рынка, увеличение военного бюджета и другие фискальные стимулы.
Какие могут быть последствия экономического спада для России?
-Экономический спад может привести к замедлению экономического роста, увеличению безработицы, снижению уровня жизни населения и ухудшению социальной стабильности.
Чем отличается текущая экономическая модель России от модели 1990-х годов?
-В настоящее время Россия находится в эпоху государственного капитализма с государственным участием более чем на 50%, в отличие от 1990-х, когда была характерна рыночная экономика с приватизацией государственных предприятий.
Outlines
📈 Экономическая стабильность России и ее иллюзорность
Параграф 1 обсуждает текущую экономическую ситуацию в России, где, похоже, наблюдается стабильность и рост. Однако автор предупреждает, что это может быть иллюзорным, так как экономика по-прежнему зависит от государственных вливаний и инфляции. Он высказывает опасение о возможном развале экономической пузырьки и последующих негативных последствиях, таких как замедление экономического роста и рецессия. Автор также затрагивает тему дивидендов, которые, по его мнению, не будут использоваться для долгосрочных инвестиций, а для удовлетворения потребностей и импорта из Китая.
🌐 Сравнение с прошлым и стратегии долгосрочного развития
Параграф 2 анализирует различные этапы развития советской и российской экономики, начиная с 1990-х годов и заканчивая нынешним периодом государственного капитализма. Автор критикует идею ожидания улучшения отношений с Западом и предпочитает стратегии, направленные на самоукрепление и развитие отношений с развивающимися экономиками, такими как Китай и Индия. Он подчеркивает важность не失去历史性的机遇 и предлагает собственный подход к будущему развитию России.
🚀 Подготовка к рецессии и долгосрочное планирование
Параграф 3 фокусируется на рекомендациях для предпринимателей по подготовке к возможным экономическим трудностям. Автор предлагает разнообразные стратегии, такие как диверсификация источников дохода, эксперименты с маркетинговыми стратегиями, фокус на долгосрочных целях, укрепление социального капитала и интердисциплинарность. Эти подходы призваны помочь сохранить стабильность и нахождение новых возможностей даже в условиях экономического кризиса.
🧘♂️ Сохранение здоровья и саморазвития в трудные времена
В заключительном параграфе автор обращается к людям, не являющимся бизнес-людьми, с рекомендациями по сохранению здоровья, избеганию неконструктивной информации и инвестированию в саморазвитие и образование. Он подчеркивает важность поддержания положительной обстановки и обучения новым навыкам и знаниям для укрепления уверенности в себе и качественного изменения жизни.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Утопичность
💡Инфляция
💡Рецессия
💡Дивиденды
💡Государственный капитализм
💡Мультипликация
💡Диверсификация
💡Маркетинговые стратегии
💡Социальный капитал
💡Интердисциплинарность
💡Самокапitalизация
Highlights
Russia has achieved economic stability with high interest rates, no huge budget debts, and growing GDP
The apparent picture of a thriving economy is an illusion and the direction of growth is concerning
Russia cannot produce enough industrial goods to meet demand, leading to high prices and a fragile economy
The current economic boom is a bubble that could burst and lead to a severe downturn
Russia has never sustained economic growth for more than a few years, raising fears of an impending crash
The economy is expected to grow 3% this year, but this is likely temporary as the bubble continues to inflate
Dividends worth 5 trillion rubles are expected to be paid out this year, but likely won't be invested in new production
The overheating economy is not leading to new entrepreneurs or industrial productions, but rather increased imports from China
The post-Soviet 1990s economy was characterized by unfulfilled dreams and a lack of action
The 2000s market economy led to Russia feeling like a global player, but this was an illusion
We are now in the era of state capitalism, with the state controlling over 50% of the economy
Waiting for relations with the West to improve is a futile strategy, as is trying to build alliances with China and India
Russia needs to focus on becoming a strong trading partner by producing goods or creating meaningful ideas
Entrepreneurs should always be prepared for a recession by diversifying income, experimenting with marketing, and focusing on long-term goals
Building social capital and having a supportive community is crucial during tough economic times
Working at the intersection of disciplines and being interdisciplinary can reveal new opportunities and ideas
For non-business people, maintaining health, avoiding negative information, and investing in self-development are key during tough times
Surrounding oneself with a positive, uplifting community is essential for mental and emotional well-being
Multiplying good things and focusing on positivity can help eliminate negativity and create a better future
Transcripts
Oh, great China!
That’s utopian.
What can you do? You’ll pay through the nose.
The tendencies are alarming.
The rates will be high, inflation will rise. A huge slowdown, a recession.
Let’s wait and endure.
Maybe a Stalin will come.
It’s a statement of reality.
CHANNEL No.1 ABOUT MONEY AND BUSINESS
– Russia seems to have achieved
the very stability
it has long sought:
the economy is doing very well,
with high interest rates
we don’t have huge budget debts, and our GDP is growing.
What does this mean for us?
– First of all, it’s a good indicator of survivability.
Indeed, the rates are high, the economy is growing,
and everything seems to be fine, but this apparent picture
is an illusion. Where is this locomotive going?
After all, it’s clear that all this is happening
in conditions of a very categorical gap;
for example, today the demand
for industrial goods
exceeds 1.5-3% of GDP,
that is, Russia simply can’t produce
the goods it needs.
As a result, prices are high,
and now the margin
of commercial and industrial enterprises
is such that it can digest these loans. But this is a bubble,
and if this bubble suddenly starts to deflate,
there’ll be a terrible blow.
Indeed, we see the practice
of further inflation of the bubble for decades,
but Russia has never managed to maintain the bubble
for more than a few years,
so there’s a concern that this bubble will start to deflate,
and then things will get bad. For now, however,
the rosy forecasts are encouraging: the economy is expected
to grow about 3% this year, which means
that the bubble will continue to inflate,
so there’ll definitely be money this year.
– What does this bubble can lead to?
– Well, the consequences, as always, are very much the same.
Imagine that the economy,
after being pumped up with steroids
for a long time
through the budget, through mortgage stimulation,
through increased military spending, suddenly starts to deflate:
a huge slowdown, a recession, it sharply slows everything down,
and this is a very heavy blow.
The ruble may not be very stable,
the rates will be high; by the way, the Central Bank
has already stated that they see no reason
to lower the rate if things go on like this,
and I’ve already told you how things are going:
fiscal stimulus, the economy is being on steroids,
inflation will rise.
This is the forecast that some “analysts” are giving
for 2025-2026, that Russia is in for a recession.
My personal forecast is different; I believe
that Russia won’t face recession in 2025-2026;
however, the tendencies are alarming.
Here’s the thing: for example,
this year, companies will pay dividends
worth about 5 trillion rubles,
such a flow is anticipated. Where will these dividends go,
in your opinion? To expand consumption, to plug holes.
Will these 5 trillion rubles be used
for new production or new enterprises?
Probably not, most likely not.
The fact is that the existing producers
are doing just fine:
the existing gigantic industrial demand has provided
the current industrialists with huge margins,
huge income, and these industrialists
will at most expand the existing production.
And in fact, the most critical point
that I see from this overheating is the following:
there’s money at the moment of overheating,
but again this money won’t be used
for long-term investment programs;
again hundreds and thousands of new entrepreneurs,
new industrial productions won’t emerge.
Again this money will be used
to expand imports from China.
Oh, great China, supply us with,
well, wooden toys,
bolts, everything,
oh great China. What can you do?
You’ll pay through the nose and so on.
This is what awaits Russia
after this overheating.
– Our times are often compared to the 90s
or the 40s of the last century.
What Russia is going through now,
has it already happened to us or not? – That’s the way our brain works:
it constantly wants to find
some analogy,
a model to compare to
in order to calm down,
that’s why we like to listen
to someone saying, “In the 90s,
I did this and that, and I succeeded”,
and the brain wants to rely on this model of behavior,
the brain generates the illusion
of calming down, that if you do something in this way,
everything will work out. Don’t fall for it,
it’s a cognitive error.
Let me tell you briefly
about the stages
in the Soviet economy, in the Russian economy,
and at the same time you can reflect
on how things are going in your life. So, first of all,
the post-Soviet economy
is the very 1990s, with a burden of unfulfilled dreams
of that great empire,
the empire
in which all Soviet people used to live, and they were told
that communism would come soon.
Suddenly it all fell apart,
and suddenly even the food in the stores disappeared,
but the feeling that we lived
in some great country kept people
from taking specific actions for a very long time.
It was as if everyone was waiting for something to happen:
maybe a Stalin would come,
maybe something else would change.
The potential was still huge,
because hydroelectric power plants, factories, steamships –
all this was set up in the Soviet Union,
and it all somehow worked at first.
Some people started businesses in the 1990s,
some of them even prospered,
but most people lived in want at that time.
The second period is the market economy,
a la “market economy”:
the dollar exchange rate
became favorable in the 00s, Russia sold oil, gas,
it brought money, and Russia bought
all the consumer goods in the world.
Russia suddenly began to feel like a full-fledged player
in the international arena,
which was of course an illusion,
but we were building an economic model and believed
that soon we would become a kind of civilized Europe.
And the third period, which we’re living in now,
is the era of state capitalism.
That is, today everything that concerns
a long-term outlook is planned by the State.
The level of statehood of the economy
is well over 50%;
some analysts say that about 70% of the economy
is state-owned,
and basically I would say
this is not a bad way to respond to the current challenges.
I don’t think
Russia would be able to respond
to these external challenges at all
if it had a level of state capitalism,
let’s say, much less than 50%.
It’s amazing how something that used to hinder the economic growth
suddenly became all-encompassing and centering
in a moment of violent cataclysms.
I think this turnaround
is in for the long haul. To summarize,
there’re two camps in Russia now. One camp says,
“Let’s wait for the relations
with the collective West to return, let’s wait, endure and so on,
a year, two years, 10 years, as long as it takes”.
The other camp believes
that the fundamental breakthrough must be recognized,
and we need to build relations with China, with India, etc.,
conquering those markets. I share neither of these options.
I will talk about the scenario that I think is close for Russia.
Time will put everything in its place,
and we’ll see how it’ll really go,
but I’m warning you,
and I actually live in that paradigm, look:
if we wait that a union with someone,
an alliance with someone,
or a coalition with someone will help us,
the only thing we’ll see
will be us losing another historic opportunity.
And now I’ll tell you what I think we should do next.
– Which of the scenarios for our economy do you believe in more?
– The past no longer exists,
and returning to it is all the more utopian.
I don’t believe in cooperation with Africa.
When we’re talking about India,
Africa, China, and so on,
it should be understood
that it isn’t a near-term outlook;
basically, the idea that you have to look through a broader lens
is a philosophical idea, a cool one,
but there’s no pragmatics in it.
How are you going to get there? Taking airplanes
that we don’t make?
Boeings
that we can’t buy parts for?
Or maybe taking a train to Africa?
Try going to Africa by train.
How will we travel to India?
Well, at least they may build a railroad to India someday
through Iran. All right,
we have a railroad to China as well,
but you can’t get there through the Baikal–Amur Mainline now,
it’s overloaded, and it’ll take a huge amount of time
to build a second branch line: it would take 10 years
to extend the mainline with a second branch railway, 10 years.
So, I don’t believe in all these scenarios.
And here’s another thing: we have nothing in common
with the countries that we’re offered to cooperate with
under these scenarios.
We could be united
by confronting the countries of the collective West
if there were prerequisites
for such confrontation,
but basically,
we have completely different mentalities,
completely different cultures. Anyway, let’s see
what America succeeds by.
America rules by meanings, and everyone copies those meanings,
everyone reproduces those meanings,
or by ideological dissemination,
or by force
plus ideology.
So, as long as Russia doesn’t produce
any meanings, nobody is interested in Russia,
and therefore cooperation with Russia...
all right, go supply us with raw materials
at reduced prices – that’s what this cooperation is all about.
But it’s not a cooperation,
it’s a kind of commerce
which is unprofitable
for one of the counterparties. That’s why I don’t believe
in all these radical scenarios
that again assume
that Russia is an equal, parity player
compared to other strong players.
China’s economy is at least 10 times larger than Russia’s.
What kind of equality are we talking about?
Russian gas is sold to China
at a reduced price. Why?
Where else would Russia sell gas to?
I’m not criticizing the current situation –
it’s a statement of reality.
So, I don’t believe
in any radical scenario,
like we’ll unite with someone and everything will be fine.
Hold on, that’s utopian.
You have to become strong yourself,
and for you to be a strong trading partner,
you have to produce goods, or you have to produce meanings –
you have to make something,
and now Russia is making
the impression of a great country,
nothing else.
– And how can businesses prepare for a recession?
– An entrepreneur needs to prepared all the time,
because one trouble comes after another,
it’s a perpetual roller coaster.
It’s not just Russia that’s burning with fever – the world economy is feverish too.
So, I’m going to dwell on what you should do,
step by step, so go write it down.
First and most importantly: put eggs in different baskets.
Diversify your income flows. Don’t rely on one source of income
that could dry up and jeopardize your livelihood,
or your expedition. So number one, diversify your sources of income.
Number two, experiment with marketing strategies.
In times of cataclysms,
new niches and opportunities are opening up,
while old ones that have worked before
are losing their effectiveness.
So, don’t stop experimenting with marketing.
You need new segments,
new consumers, new groups.
Try to get to them
without stopping your experiments. Don’t shrink, don’t dry up,
don’t stop yourself from taking advantage
of newly opening circumstances,
I mean, run an active marketing policy.
Third, look beyond the horizon,
focus on your long-term goals,
and this will help you be resilient in cataclysms.
When an unexpected rolling wave hits the side of your boat
and you’re shaken up pretty badly,
you could be run off the course,
but if your eyes are fixed on the future,
this tactical wave
will be nothing but a slight slap
that you won’t even notice
being committed to a long-term plan.
Fourth, your social capital.
Keep and build up your connectedness with people, with your people:
communities, different groups, industries, etc.
When you have your own people,
your own community of people
who won’t let you be less bright
than you can be, they’ll support you
when you have a hard time. And when they have a hard time,
you’re there for them. We’re stronger together.
And the fifth point is interdisciplinarity.
Always work at the intersection of disciplines.
The incredible ability of entrepreneurs
to hold the attention
on seemingly contradictory things
is about this very intersection. So, when you’re doing
several different things,
when you’re connected to different communities,
you see extraordinary moves and opportunities.
Don’t close it off for yourself,
don’t narrow the focus of your attention to one industry,
to one manifestation of yourself,
be diversified,
engage in creative endeavors. If you’re a mathematician,
add music lessons; if you’re a businessperson,
add dance lessons,
I mean be sure to show up in different areas of life.
It will increase your abilities
to work at the intersection of disciplines and see much more
than when you’re focused on one thing.
– How do each of us get through the tough times?
– If you’re not a business person,
I have three recommendations for you.
Number one is body tonus, your health.
Keep healthy, don’t put your body
into some terrible wear and tear,
because your body will immediately give out this bad condition,
and your quality of life will instantly drop.
Basically, health is your foundation,
body tonus is the foundation of everything.
Number two, don’t let junk information in.
Reading the news feeds and so on,
letting that garbage in
is about disorder,
tearing up, etc.
That’s why you shouldn’t let it in.
You better surround yourself with people, create a configuration of people
of a nurturing environment, that is, positive thoughts:
improvement of your life,
increased income, new ideas,
traveling together, some kind of camping, etc.,
even barbequing. I mean, surround yourself
with a configuration of people
where you’re going to feel uplifted,
rather than depressed, stressed, and devastated.
Finally, the third point is about self-development and education.
Invest in yourself,
and remember that being happy with yourself
is probably the most important thing in life,
and that’s where education
and investing in yourself are important.
People often ignore that
and, like guards, keep their way of thinking and so on;
they even seem to stay off new discoveries,
these moments and insights,
saying, “Well, is there anything in life I don’t know yet?
I’m not going to be surprised by anything.”
So, put yourself into wonder, discover the new you,
and you’ll be surprised at how powerful,
big and beautiful you really are. Remember Igor Rybakov’s words about you:
You are more than you are.
And finally, the most important thing of all:
let’s multiply good things together
so that there’s no room left for anything bad.
CHANNEL No.1 ABOUT MONEY AND BUSINESS
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