Between two superpowers: Indonesia’s position in the US-China rivalry

Summary

Indonesia's diplomatic strategy has long focused on maintaining neutrality amidst rising tensions between superpowers like China and the United States. As a leader in Southeast Asia, Indonesia aims to balance its relationships with both nations, engaging in free diplomacy and investment while mediating conflicts, such as in Ukraine and Iran. Despite significant Chinese investment, recent polls show that Indonesians favor neutrality if conflict arises between the U.S. and China. As geopolitical pressures mount, Indonesia continues to uphold its stance as a bridge between rivals, emphasizing its commitment to friendly relations without taking sides.

Takeaways

• 🌍 Indonesia has pursued a policy of neutrality in international relations, positioning itself as a bridge between rival superpowers like the United States and China.
• 🤝 Since gaining independence in 1945, Indonesia has engaged in free and active diplomacy, seeking to have 'a million friends and zero enemies.'
• 🇮🇩 As a founding member of ASEAN and the only Southeast Asian country in the G20, Indonesia plays a crucial leadership role in Southeast Asia.
• 🚆 China's investment in Indonesian infrastructure, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative, totals approximately $7.9 billion, with projects like the delayed Jakarta-Bandung high-speed rail line.
• 🛡️ The United States has invested around $20 billion in Indonesia, focusing on military and defense ties, including joint military exercises and counter-terrorism efforts.
• 🌊 Tensions in the South China Sea pose significant challenges for Indonesia, as it navigates its relationship with both China and the U.S.
• 🔍 A 2022 poll revealed that 60% of Indonesians feel the country should limit China's influence, yet 84% prefer neutrality in the event of a U.S.-China conflict.
• 📉 Recent deteriorating relations between the U.S. and China have influenced public opinion in Indonesia, increasing distrust toward both powers.
• ⚖️ Indonesia's balancing act is tested by aggressive posturing from both China and the U.S., as it seeks to maintain its neutral stance.
• 🔗 Experts predict that if tensions escalate, Indonesia may lean more towards the United States, viewing it as a less threatening partner compared to China.

Q & A

What is Indonesia's approach to its foreign relations?

Indonesia aims to maintain a neutral stance, promoting a strategy of 'friends to all, enemies to none' through free and active diplomacy.

How has Indonesia positioned itself amid the growing tensions between China and the United States?

Indonesia has managed to stay neutral while balancing its relationships with both China and the US, acting as a mediator in various international disputes.

What is the significance of Indonesia's membership in ASEAN and the G20?

As a founding member of ASEAN and the only Southeast Asian country in the G20, Indonesia plays a leading role in regional cooperation and global economic discussions.

What major infrastructure project is mentioned in the context of China's investment in Indonesia?

The Jakarta-Bandung high-speed rail line, part of China's Belt and Road Initiative, is a key infrastructure project that reflects China's significant investment in Indonesia.

How does the US approach its relationship with Indonesia compared to China?

The US focuses on increasing defense ties and military cooperation with Indonesia, while China emphasizes economic investments to strengthen its influence.

What challenges does Indonesia face in maintaining its neutrality?

Indonesia faces pressure from both China and the US, especially with rising military tensions and differing visions regarding trade and security in the region.

What does a recent poll indicate about Indonesian public opinion regarding China and the US?

The poll revealed that while a majority of Indonesians believe the country should limit China's influence, most prefer to remain neutral if a conflict between the US and China were to arise.

What was the outcome of the 2018 APEC meeting attended by Indonesia?

The meeting ended without a consensus on a final declaration, marking the first time in APEC history that member economies could not agree due to differing views on trade.

What can China do to improve its standing in Indonesia compared to the US?

China should broaden its approach beyond economic investments and consider Indonesia's perspectives and interests to foster a more balanced relationship.

What is the predicted outcome for Indonesia if tensions between the US and China escalate?

If the rivalry intensifies, Indonesia may lean towards the US, as it is perceived as less threatening than China, despite the economic ties with both countries.