Elon Musk: “10X Every 6 Months” | Tyrants, Corruption, Free Speech and Preserving Consciousness
Summary
TLDRIn this podcast transcript, the host engages in a thought-provoking discussion about the rapid advancements in AI technology and its potential impact on society. The guest, an expert in the field, shares insights on the current state of AI, the race for technological supremacy, and the challenges of managing a tech company in a competitive global market. They delve into topics such as the importance of truthfulness in AI development, the role of regulation, and the future of electric vehicles and space exploration. The conversation also touches on geopolitical issues, the management of geniuses, and the balance between risk-taking and innovation. The guest emphasizes the goal of extending human consciousness and the pursuit of a future where technology serves the greater good.
Takeaways
- 🚀 AI and technology are advancing rapidly, with AI hardware increasing exponentially and software breakthroughs occurring frequently.
- 🌐 The global AI race is not just about algorithms, people, or computing power, but a combination of these elements, including data and electricity availability.
- 🤖 The development of AI is drawing talent from various fields, such as physics, indicating its importance and potential impact on society.
- 🔧 Hardware constraints, like chip supply and voltage transformer availability, play a significant role in the pace of AI development.
- 🌍 China is expected to be a major player in AI development, with its large pool of smart individuals and growing technological capabilities.
- 🚗 The transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is happening faster than expected, with countries like Norway leading the way in EV adoption.
- 🛰 The potential for self-sufficiency on Mars is possible but requires a significant amount of resources and infrastructure to be delivered to the planet.
- 🚀 Space exploration, including missions to Mars and the Moon, is a priority with the goal of making humanity a multiplanet species for the long-term survival of consciousness.
- 🌟 The pursuit of truth and accuracy in information is a key goal for the development of the X platform (formerly Twitter), aiming to become the best source of truth on the internet.
- 💡 Innovation and risk-taking are essential for progress, with the understanding that some failures are necessary for success and growth.
- 🎮 Strategic and complex games can provide valuable insights and frameworks for understanding technological development and decision-making in real-world scenarios.
Q & A
What does the guest believe is the current state of the AI race?
-The guest believes that AI is the fastest advancing technology, with hardware dedicated to AI increasing significantly and software breakthroughs happening frequently. They predict that AI smarter than any human individual will be achieved by the end of the next year, and that the collective AI compute will exceed all humans in 5 years.
What are the main constraints in the hardware development for AI?
-The main constraints mentioned are the supply of chips, specifically Nvidia chips, and the transition to voltage Transformers. Additionally, the availability of electricity is expected to become a constraint in the future.
How does the guest view the role of data in training AI?
-The guest notes that while the amount of data might seem vast, it is actually not enough for training advanced AI systems. They mention the need to look beyond books and consider all videos, podcasts, and other forms of content, and even then, there might be a need for more data, which could come from synthetic sources or real-world video.
What is the biggest challenge faced by the guest's company, X, in developing AI?
-The biggest challenge is training their Gro version two model, which they believe will be better than GDP 4. The challenge is to get enough GPUs online to train it fast enough to complete the process in May.
What is the guest's perspective on the regulation of AI?
-The guest believes that some form of regulatory authority is needed to ensure the safety of AI, similar to how other industries are overseen. They emphasize the importance of training AI to be as truthful as possible to avoid dangerous outcomes in the future.
How does the guest view the potential of electric vehicles?
-The guest is highly optimistic about the future of electric vehicles, stating that it's only a matter of time before all vehicles go fully electric, including aircraft and boats. They believe that electric cars are inevitable and view the transition as a positive step forward.
What is the guest's strategy for competing with Chinese electric vehicle companies?
-The guest acknowledges that Chinese companies are very competitive and make great cars. They do not provide a specific strategy but imply that they are aware of the challenge and are prepared to face it head-on.
What does the guest think is needed for humans to be self-sufficient on Mars?
-The guest estimates that between one to ten million tons of supplies need to be delivered to Mars for self-sufficiency. They believe this can be achieved within 20 years with the current technology, requiring a large number of rocket flights.
When does the guest expect the first humans on Mars?
-The guest predicts that the first humans on Mars could happen within seven to ten years after the first unmanned Starship lands on Mars, which they believe could be within about five years.
What is the vision for X, the company the guest recently acquired?
-The vision for X is to become the best source of truth on the internet. The guest aims for it to be an 'everything app' where users can access text, audio, video, financial services, and more, all while maintaining a high standard of accuracy and fact-checking.
How does the guest manage geniuses in his companies?
-The guest believes that highly intelligent and talented individuals manage themselves. He focuses on setting clear goals and expects team members to share and commit to these objectives. He provides his opinion and insists on attention to detail but does not manage them in a traditional sense.
What is the guest's approach to risk-taking in business decisions?
-The guest is willing to take significant risks, especially when they are necessary for the success of a project or to avoid failure. However, he balances this by ensuring that the company is moving at high speed in the right direction and making necessary course corrections along the way.
Outlines
🤖 AI Advancements and the Global Race
The conversation begins with a discussion on the rapid advancements in AI technology, describing it as the fastest advancing technology ever seen. The guest shares insights on the exponential growth in AI hardware and software breakthroughs, predicting that AI smarter than any human could be achieved by the end of the next year. The conversation then delves into the challenges of the AI race, including hardware constraints such as chip supply and voltage transformer supply. The discussion highlights the importance of talent migration from fields like physics to AI and the critical issue of data availability for training AI models. The guest also shares thoughts on the biggest challenge in developing AI, the transition from the current model to a more advanced version, and the necessity of training AI to be as truthful as possible to ensure safety.
🌐 Global Talent and Hardware Challenges in AI
The paragraph continues the discussion on AI, focusing on the global distribution of talent and the challenges faced in hardware deployment. The guest mentions the concentration of AI advancements in San Francisco and London, and the significant contributions from China. There's an acknowledgment of the importance of programming AI with utmost truthfulness to prevent potential misuse of power. The conversation then shifts to the topic of electric vehicles (EVs), with the guest expressing optimism about the rapid conversion to EVs, especially in countries like Norway. The discussion also touches on the competitiveness of Chinese car companies and the expansion of the guest's companies into India and other markets.
🚀 Mars Colonization and Multiplanetary Species
This paragraph discusses the efforts towards making Mars self-sufficient and the technological and logistical challenges involved. The guest provides an estimate of the tonnage needed for Mars colonization and the number of rocket flights required to achieve this. The timeline for the first Starship landing on Mars and the potential for human travel to the Moon and Mars within the next five to seven years is also covered. The importance of becoming a multiplanetary species for the survival and expansion of consciousness is emphasized, with the guest expressing a vision of humanity extending beyond Earth and into other star systems.
🌍 Geopolitical Influence and Corporate Governance
The conversation turns to the geopolitical impact of the guest's companies, particularly in relation to Twitter and its role in providing a source of truth on the internet. The guest shares his vision for Twitter (renamed X) as the best source of truth, despite the challenges of misinformation and external influences. The discussion includes the handling of legal demands and the importance of maintaining free speech while combating misinformation. The guest also reflects on his role in managing geniuses within his companies, emphasizing the culture of hard work and the acceptance of failure as a part of innovation. The conversation concludes with the guest's thoughts on his legacy and the importance of understanding the universe and extending the 'light of consciousness'.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡AI race
💡Hardware
💡Data
💡Electric vehicles (EVs)
💡Self-sufficiency on Mars
💡Regulation of AI
💡X (formerly Twitter)
💡Geopolitical influence
💡Innovation
💡PhDs and research
Highlights
The rapid advancement of AI technology, with hardware increases in capability by a factor of 10 every year or less.
The prediction that AI could surpass human intelligence individually by the end of the next year and collectively in 5 years.
The transition in hardware deployment from chip constraints to voltage transformer supply challenges.
The influx of top talent from various fields, like physics, into AI due to its fast-paced development.
Algorithmic breakthroughs in AI and the challenge of encountering data limitations despite vast amounts of information.
The importance of training AI to be as truthful as possible to ensure safety and avoid dangerous programming biases.
China's position in the AI race, with a focus on their competitive AI developments and smart people.
The accelerating shift towards electric vehicles (EVs) and the inevitability of a fully electric future for vehicles, including aircraft and boats.
The competitive nature of Chinese car companies in the global electric vehicle market.
The vision for Tesla in India, aiming to introduce electric vehicles to keep pace with the country's growing population.
The goal for Mars colonization, estimating the tonnage needed for self-sufficiency and the timeline for achieving it.
The first Starship landing on Mars expected within 5 years, with an aim for crewed missions within 7 to 10 years.
The importance of becoming a multi-planet species to ensure the longevity of consciousness and survival.
The vision for X (formerly Twitter) as the best source of truth on the internet, with a commitment to fact-checking and community notes.
The impact of geopolitical events on X, with a focus on handling demands from authorities and maintaining integrity.
The balance between speed and analysis in decision-making, emphasizing the competitive advantage of speed.
The approach to risk-taking in innovation, accepting failure as part of the process and learning from mistakes.
The value of research and PhDs, with a critical view on their utility and the importance of practical application.
The insights gained from strategic video games and their influence on planning and running companies.
The legacy of contributing to the future of consciousness and understanding the nature of the universe.
Transcripts
hello hi alone hi hi hi everyone and big
thanks for taking the timeon you know
we've been trying to get you on the
podcast since uh we started it two years
ago so we are super pleased that we that
we have you on and indeed on your
xplatform how cool yeah uh it's pretty
cool yeah I mean you have like lots of
people from all around the world uh
simultaneously do effectively a
real-time podcast and uh it works pretty
well very good well we have so much to
talk about so uh love to kick off with
with AI um now what's your take on where
we are in the AI race just
now wow that's a long answer
um there's there's so much happening in
AI is the fastest advancing technology
that I've ever seen of any kind and I've
seen a lot of Technology um you barely a
week goes by without some new
announcement so uh and and if you look
at the amount of uh AI Hardware the
computers coming online that are
dedicated to AI that is increasing what
looks like at least by a factor of 10
every year if not every six to n
months so when you combine the hardware
um Coming online really order of
magnitude increase every you know call
at least every nine months um and uh
many many software breakthroughs uh if
if you look at that that curve it looks
insane so I think we'll
um my my my guess is that we we'll have
ai that is smarter than any any one
human probably to around the end of next
year um and then
AI the total amount of sort of sentient
compute of AI I think will probably
exceed
all humans in 5
years what what is the what is the race
about just now is it algorithm is it
people is it computing power what what
is it about just now is it the supply of
chips just what is
it yeah last year it was uh chip
constrainted um and the hardware
deployment we break it down into the
three areas of people um data and
Hardware I'm starting with Hardware uh
last year it was about a chift supply
people could not get enough um Nvidia
chips particularly um this year it's
starting to transition to a voltage
Transformer Supply so actually getting
enough voltage
Transformers uh put in place so my sort
of very Niche joke is Transformers for
Transformers because a lot of the AI
That's run is called a Transformer so
you need Transformers to run
Transformers um and then next in the if
you look out a year or two or certainly
3 years um it's just electricity
availability
so that's those those constraints in the
hardware
side
um so many of the smart World smartest
people are are doing AI people that
would have done physics before in fact
or had have done physics for example
have moved into AI because it's just the
fastest moving field so we're seeing a
lot of the best talent a lot of the
smartest humans going into to Ai and
then uh we see along with that
algorithmic
breakthroughs um and then then you start
hitting the the wall with the the data
problem um so
the you know you can fit all books ever
written um just the text the the text in
compressed form uh on one hard drive or
call one one
computer um so when you when you're
looking at like
so called tokens to train on yeah uh and
you you still think of like all the
books ever written in every in in all
languages by All Humans sounds like a
lot certainly it's far more than any one
human could could ever read um it
actually is a small it's a small number
of train training tokens it's just not
enough so then you you start having to
look at all the videos have I created um
you know all the podcasts all the
everything
um and and you start even running out of
data there well hopefully they hopefully
they will include this podcast uh that
definitely will include this podcast
what's the biggest challenge you have
with uh with
xai well X is still relatively new so
it's not um you
know
uh like the limiting factor right now is
just training our Gro version two model
which should be we think better than GPD
4 um and that's we're hoping to complete
that in May so that's that's training
right now so it's just really we're just
trying to get enough gpus online to
train it fast enough to get that done in
May um which I think probably will
happen um and
then and that's with uh roughly 20,000
h100s uh and and doing I think very
efficient training
then the next step would be for grock 3
which would be I guess G55 or Beyond uh
would you know requires uh 100,000
Nvidia h100s training
coherently so that's you know a half
order of magnitude basically more
training um and then you really start to
have running into this data problem
where you you have to either create
synthetic data or use real world video
those the the two sources of kind of
like unlimited data uh synthetic data
and real world video which I should say
Tesla has a pretty big advantage in real
world video um T has by far the most
real world video of anyone yeah you've
got a huge library that so when do you
think so when do you think we'll see
proper
AGI well it depends on how you define
AGI if you define AGI as smarter than
the smartest human I think it's probably
end of next year like like within two
years
um but but that's that there's still
there's still a pretty big leap beyond
that to say smer than the the machine
augmented human Collective so like is it
smarter than all humans working together
uh who are also using computers to
augment their output and that that I
think is probably five years away one
one way to look at it is is is to try to
assess um like roughly what is the ratio
of digital to biological
compute um and the so biological compute
are all the human brains that are
thinking and that's that's a pretty
static that's that's
not hi sorry hi sorry I don't know where
we had some be back online here yeah I
think somebody I think somebody hacked
us we must have some we must have some
enemies um last question on um on AI any
your thoughts on regulation and um how
it should be
structured well I I think we probably do
need some sort of regulatory authority
to look at the safety of AI um just as
we have regulatory authorities in other
Arenas to um you know o oversee aircraft
and the safety of aircraft and cars and
and other things you know medication
so
uh the rate at which AI is progressing
is is fast is faster than probably any
regulatory agency can keep up with
um but but I do have a comment on what I
think is very important
for achieving safe AI which is that uh
it's very important to train the AI to
be as truthful as possible um and not to
uh yeah just to be as truthful as
possible
um the I think you can get some very
dangerous things when you program an AI
to be politically correct think that
things that may
seem uh relatively innocuous now but
will not be so in in the future if AI
has immense power you can take the
Google Gemini example where it it
refused to publish to produce a picture
of George Washington as a white man and
and any in fact any historical figure
would automatically be
made
diverse um because it's been programmed
to insist on diversity which sounds you
know perhaps okay at first but not if
the AI has so much power that it can
actually enforce diversity and decide
there's too many of one kind of people
or too many of one sex and kill
off just just kill off enough until the
the diversity number is is what it's
programmed to believe is correct but
don't you think this will be sorted out
in the next
version no we don't think so where is
China where is China now in a relative
to the US next verion no they'll make it
more subtle okay and less obvious but it
will still be
there okay well we'll see but where
where is China where do you where is
China now in I relative to
us um I I don't know exactly where China
is uh except there are a lot of very
smart people in China um and they it
won't be they won't be far behind the
rest of the world or far behind the US
um I mean the AI a right now
is very concentrated in San Francisco
and
London um and then you know there's
there's you know a lot happening in in
China but I I'm I don't have insight
into what they're doing uh except that
they I'm confident they will not be far
behind uh what is developed in the west
yeah um
so but but but mark my words the if if
uh if we do not program an AI to be as
truthful as
possible that that is where it will go
AR that is where the danger
[Music]
lies yeah mve moving tare moving to to
Tesla um is is the EV conversion now
going slower than you had expected just
where is the speed need of conversion
now relative to your
expectations I think it's going quite
fast actually especially in Norway um
absolutely well it's pretty much all
there is is your your
Teslas yeah there's a lot of Teslas in
Norway it's crazy thanks I once again
like to thank Norway for the support of
electric
vehicles um so much
appreciated time
so and I think
it's we will the
that that electric that all vehicles
will go fully electric uh it's only a
matter of time um that includes aircraft
ultimately and boats um obviously trains
the only thing that is ironically
difficult to where you can't really make
it electric is Rockets because you need
you can't get away from um having to
expel Mass uh sort of Newton's thirdd
law um but but all cars will be electric
it's only matter time and we'll look
back on combustion cause in the same way
that we look at back on uh steam
engines
um that that it was it was inevitable
that there would be internal combustion
cars and that and it just as inevitable
that all cars will go electric um and um
there will be some e and you know so
like it going to be a completely
straight up line there will be some uh e
and flow in how how far electric cars go
but that but the ultimate um victory of
electric cars is inevitable um and and I
think the sooner we get there the better
yeah how do you see the Chinese
competition here
now we generally find that the companies
in China are the most competitive in the
world and certainly in uh electric
vehicles or cars in general the Chinese
car companies are by far the most
competitive um yeah that's where where
we find the most toughest toughest compe
competitive
challenges they make great cars and they
work very hard so when you ride in one
of the Chinese cars what do you think I
mean you're an engineer you know what
about it what do you what do you
think I haven't R I have not ridden in
one lately
but
uh because they're not all available
here you know in the US or very few are
available in the US um some are
available in Europe um but from what my
team tells me they are very
good now you are moving into India here
as well in terms of production what are
your what are your thoughts here sorry
moving into where to India Oh India yeah
uh yeah I think it's you know India is
sort of a it's India is now the most
populous country in the world you know
the biggest population um and I think
there we India just should have electric
cars just like every other country has
electric
cars um and
um yeah so it's a natural progression
to provide electric Tesla electric
vehicles in
India
yeah uh moving moving out out in space
um what what would it take to be
self-sufficient at
Mars to be self-sufficient Mars it's
really about the the total tonnage that
is delivered to the surface of Mars um
so you can say like
well um I I think it's probably on the
order of a million tons maybe it maybe
more but somewhere between probably a
million tons and 10 million tons are
needed to make Mars self-sufficient and
how many Rockets is
that well I gave a presentation on this
recently if people look at my my recent
uh SpaceX talk
but if you if you have uh
100 really uh if you have 100 tons per
flight you need 10,000
flights to get to a million million
tons um and that's 100 tons landed to
the surface of Mars so in order to get
100 tons land to the surface of Mars you
need 500 t five times that number in
Earth orbit um so we do a lot of orbital
refilling um so launching sort of uh
Rockets uh tanker ships over and over
again that that would replenish the
propellant of the ships that would go to
Mars um and then You' need on roughly on
order of 10,000 of them uh to get to a
million tons um and
uh but we we plan to do that that that's
uh that's we we think we can get that
done within 20 years really so and when
do you think so when do you think we'll
be there for the first time
first first uh well the
first Starship that will land on Mars
which obviously will not have people at
first I think it's probably within about
5 years um and then it would probably
launch several ships and
just confirm that they can land okay on
Mars um we'll also be doing the moon
simultaneously with that so uh go taking
well I think I think we'll get people
back to the Moon I should say within 5
years and we'll get uh uncrewed ships
landed on mons within 5 years and and
then we be building up the production
rate um and improving the design of the
booster in the ship so
um so in the first people on Mars I
think within seven years or so 7 to n
years um and from from there we need to
rapidly increase we need massive numbers
of ships going and Earth and Mars Only
are in the same quadrant of the solar
system roughly for six months every two
years or or at
least it's only possible to really
transfer
efficiently um from Earth to Mars I say
every six months but really there's
about there's a couple months where
where it's ideal every 26 months um so
every two years you would see a
basically a fleet depart Mars I I think
we quite a spectacular thing to see a
thousand ships depart from Mars all at
once like Battle Star
Galactica what kind of new technology do
we need before we'll be self-sufficient
there actually I think we have all the
tech we already know all the technology
that's necessary for that it just needs
we just need to build so no new physics
is needed for this why is it so
important for
you I think it's important for
Consciousness in
general um so if if we wish to maximize
the lifespan of
Consciousness then being a multiplet
species will result in a much
longer uh existence of Consciousness
Consciousness than if we on one planet
if you're on one planet we're simply
biting our time until there's eventually
a Calamity it could be soon it could be
a long time but eventually something
will happen it could be you know global
thermonuclear war it could be simply
That civilization merely subsides C our
civilization may not die with a bang it
may die with a whimper just just
gradually falling into obsolescence but
if we're a multi-planet species then
we've got two planets and yeah and they
can support each other um and we can go
beyond two planets ultimately to the
moons of Jupiter to the to the
uh um you beyond to the the outer parts
of the solar system and ultimately to
other star systems
so this tiny this tiny candle of
Consciousness that we have in this vast
Darkness can be
extended um and Amplified and we're just
far more likely to uh survive as for for
Consciousness to survive if we are a
multiplet
species you don't think it' be better to
use all these resources and try to sort
out
Earth well just to put this into
perspective the amount of resources I'm
talking about for making life
multiplanetary would be less than 1% of
all resources on
Earth so really can think of it as
resource allocation do you think it's
worth spending half a percent of Earth
Resources to ensure uh that we have
redundancy in Consciousness and that we
extend Consciousness Beyond Mars to
other planets to to Mars and other
planets and ultimately other star
systems um and then also take into
account the fact that there are certain
inevit there are certain things we
simply cannot aoid on Earth um like is
it within your power of mind to stop
World War I I don't think so no if it
happens um and if we have Global ther
nulear Warfare our technology level will
drop to the stern
age um and we may never survive and then
there are we maybe get we may get hit
like by a comet like the dinosaurs and
um you know if the dinosaurs had
spaceships they they' probably still be
around um so and then if if you wait
long enough the Earth the the sun will
continue to expand and eventually engulf
Earth and destroy it and destroy all
life so just to give it amount a certain
amount of time no matter what you do on
Earth no matter how careful you are um
Earth will life all life on Earth will
die that it will happen is a certainty
it's a big Gloom of this no
um so
um on a slightly uh less gloomy note uh
X Twitter yeah um what is your vision
now what do you how do you see the the
vision of
x i goal of X is to be the best source
of Truth on the
internet um and I think we're making a
good you know good progress there I mean
this it's we to be like I call the
everything app like if anything you want
to do you can do on the xplatform um
whether it's text audio video
uh payments Financial stuff
um Communications of all kinds um and
then but but then also where there is
publicly disseminated information is to
be the best source of Truth um and I
think it I think it already is that um
now people may say oh there's some piece
of misinformation disinformation I say
yes but look look at the replies the
replies correct that misinformation and
look at Community notes and the and how
good the batting average of community
notes is it's extremely good it's by far
the best factchecking system on the
internet
um so and and and a lot of people still
labor under the illusion that the the
the Legacy newspapers that they read are
actually true there's so much nonsense
in them I mean Nico how many times when
do you read an article in a newspaper
where you know the circumstances of what
that article is and how often is it spot
on no of course it's uh normally no no
of course we all know it's normally
wrong but but how do you look not sure
but how do you look at the situation now
for instance with with with Russia uh
you know the work Russia does in Germany
with fake accounts on it's pretty pretty
huge uh activity
right I mean we don't see a lot of
Russian activity to be frank um on the
system um
so we we see very little
um we do see we do see a lot of lot of
attempts to influence things but they
seem to be coming from from the West not
from from
Russia right what about um what about
things like the latest developments in
in
Brazil and yeah sure yeah so the
the
uh we we kept getting these demands from
um uh this uh Judge Alexander um that's
his that's his name on Twitter Alexander
um and there would be to suspend
accounts um immediately we're given
typically two hours to suspend an
account or face massive fines um and the
the final stoies we were we being given
demands to suspend setting setting
members of the parliament and major
journalists and moreover we could not
tell them that it this was at the behest
of uh as under Morales we had to pretend
that it was due to our rules of service
and that was the final straw and we said
no now um when you when you bought
Twitter um now renamed X did you expect
that you would end up in these type of
situations so it's is all
unexpected well I knew it wouldn't be
just a total B of roses um you know and
it's talk I
wouldn't
um no I mean I thought it would
be since we're just like rigorously
trying to pursue the the the goal of
being the most accurate and truthful
place in the internet and that that
doesn't mean that what is said is always
true or accurate but is it is perhaps
another way to frame it is as the least
inaccurate place on the internet do you
do you secretly do you secretly think
this is a bit
fun it's fun yeah yeah it's fun at times
it's stressful at times and it's fun at
times um but overall we're trying to
serve the people of Earth um and and and
this is sort of an es sort of maybe an
esoteric way of viewing it but um to try
to be kind of like the the group
consciousness of Earth so you can think
of like if each person is like a neuron
contributing to like the collective
brain of Earth and you want to try to
minimize the noise and maximize the
signal of every neuron that's connected
to the the X Network that that's
basically what is what is the collective
will of of humanity and and how and and
and how to yeah just serve the
collective will of humanity and serve
the greater good that that's our goal um
now you know there's there's definitely
going to be people who want to
manipulate that information and so we
have to fight that and try to have uh
you know be be the most accurate place
as to the best of our ability
and have it be kind of a Marketplace of
ideas where people can propose ideas and
you know debate them
and um I think so far it's working
reasonably well in that regard um now
people that don't like the truth will
not like those ex or if they want to
manipulate things they will not like it
but only but only a few years ago you
were you were a guy
um producing electric vehicles now you
are you know through starlink you've had
some you know I mean some big impact in
in
Ukraine uh with Twitter you are kind
of into some issues in uh you know
Brazil India
Turkey um you know you becoming like a
real geopolitical
force and a really important one how do
you how do you look at
that well like I said I'm really I'm
trying
to take the set of actions that maximize
the probability that the future is good
um I mean we have to keep
civilization going onward and upward as
much as possible and um and try to
minimize the civilizational threats that
occur um like you know we we we can't
get to Mars if civilization collapses
it's not going to happen so
um you know we've got to we've got to
keep
um keep civilization going um and I
think we should view our civilization as
being much more fragile than we think we
kind of take for granted it's always
going to be there but actually if you
study history you realize that there
arise you know there's RIS P
civilizations um I mean I was I was
reading in depth about the ancient
samarians um who were arguably the first
civilization if you call civilization
like writing and stuff you know they're
the first to
writing um and uh but eventually they
died out and they were
gone so and then nobody could read their
writing at all and and they they just
faded out as a
civilization um but they're pretty
impressive in their time and the ancient
Egyptians the same thing um and uh you
know one sort of one after another uh
ancient Greek had it Greece had its day
uh you know China and India had will
have incredibly impressive populations
but there's been EVs and flows in the CH
China and Indian civilizations over the
the the aons you know the
bennia as well um
so you know I I guess I'm just trying to
take this this set of the steps that
um increase uh the scope and scale of
Consciousness that's that's what I'm
trying to do it's but it's not that I'm
trying to have a put a political thumb
on the scale or anything like that um
but I I think I'm trying to have the
political will go where the people want
it to
go you know you you mentioned some um
some uh really smart people here and um
kind of just moving t a bit here to
copal culture now you manage a lot of
geniuses in your in your companies what
is the key to manage really smart people
you
think
I don't I don't think I manage smart
people they manage themselves
um I I think
you well I guess with really smart
people you know I don't really think of
of it like managing them I think that if
somebody's very smart and talented they
they can go anywhere and do anything any
time like if they they they don't have
to work with me they could go
anywhere so I I really just say like
look this is the the goal we're after
and this is what we're trying to achieve
and do you agree with this goal and if
you do then let's try to get it done um
and um you know provide my opinion along
the way and but I it's very rare for me
to actually sort of insist on a on on a
particular thing once in a while I'll
say look guys you just got to trust me
on on this one we got to do this thing
and if it turns out to be a bad
decision you we can can all hold that
against me in the future but you have an
incred are for detail right I mean when
we read the is book um it's pretty clear
that you I mean you really are are deep
into detail and know what you talk about
so how do you how do you balance this um
kind of micromanagement of some areas
and then delegate other
areas I wouldn't I wouldn't call it
micromanagement
um it's just insisting on atttention to
detail that um if you're trying to make
a perfect product you must have
attention to atten attention to details
essential
um and I haven't actually read the Ison
book you should it's very good actually
I loved
it well I I asked alter Ison if I should
read it and he said I shouldn't
um so so
then said I shouldn't read it so okay
well I'll um I'll ask you some questions
from the book then they you he talks
about you know you the kind of a
hardcore and Ultra Hardcore
culture what is an Ultra Hardcore
culture I guess it's work I mean it's
working culture right I mean how how I
mean Ultra hard work how hard is
that well when things get really intense
you're basically just working every
waking
hour and how and how long can you do
that
for I've done that
for well continuous for sometimes like a
few years what does it what does it do
to you it really it's
pain um and and every waking out maybe
is an exaggeration because there are a
few hours um obviously with friends and
family and and critical other things um
but 100 hour weeks would be I I've done
many many stretches of 100 hour weeks
like true 100 hour weeks
um where roughly six hours per day is
sleeping
um I would not recommend that this is
not that's for emergencies you know it's
not uh all the
time um you know during very difficult
times at Tesla I've had to do that and
at sometimes at the beginning of my
earlier startups I did that where I just
wouldn't leave the office I would just
sleep under my desk and just work seven
days a week
um sometimes it's necessary for success
or or to avoid
failure um but but do you you do you
enjoy being in this crisis
mode no I don't it
sucks okay no I I don't want to be there
it's
pain but sometimes it's the difference
between success and
failure oh when you make decisions how
important is
speed he just gave me an idea which is
um I'm going to invite the uh Judge
Alexander R uh to do a spaces and then
he can explain why what I'm doing is bad
and and and maybe he's
right I challenge I challenge him to a
spaces sounds good yeah but what about
speed when you make when when you make
decisions how how important is speed and
how do you how do you balance analysis
with your gutfield
I think the
the the best offense and defense is
speed if you think of something like the
SR71 Blackbird it really had almost no
defenses except
accelerate and it was never shut down
even even once like I think over 3,000
missiles were shot at the sof 71 black
boat and none
hit and and really what it did was just
go faster so the the power of speed
is uh underappreciated as a competitive
Dimension um is that
why um you know space expence has been
so successful because you've been mean
and lean as an organization
and fast I think speed speed is uh
definitely a factor I should say you
want to go in the case of a company you
you you need to be a vector not a scaler
so it can't be you you need to go at
high speed in the right
direction
sure so I can't just
so and no company's going to be going in
the right direction all the time so you
have to do course
Corrections like a guided missile you
qued course Corrections um and uh but in
the case of SpaceX it's like okay our
goal is to extend Humanity beyond Earth
um and we didn't even know how to even
frame the question correctly like what
what which knew that that was the
General
goal um we didn't know what pent we' use
or what the raw materials would be or
for the how would the rocket be built
how would it be designed what's actually
important um and uh you know so for
example going from our Falcon
architecture which is um uses refined
jet fuel and liquid oxygen um in a um
open cycle gas generator architecture
engine to a to Starship which is
a uh liquid methane liquid oxygen
um uh propellant uh in a staged
combustion very high pressure
engine um that that that's that's a big
architectural change um but we didn't
know that we we needed to make that
architectural change until we're pretty
far down the
road like about halfway took us about 10
years to figure out that was even the
right architecture now we're confident
it is and we're confident that uh making
life M multiplanetary can be hi hi
hacking us badly today I'm wondering who
it is yeah this is odd it's I haven't
had this issue in spes for a while no um
just um we were on um uh risk taking and
so on um now um I think SpaceX is one of
the best example I know about uh what we
call failing well right learning from
mistakes and moving on um what generally
how do you how do you look at
mistakes well I mean which which ones do
you Toler and which ones don't you
tolerate well I I
think I don't really think of that way
uh you know the first three flights of
SpaceX failed um the fourth one
succeeded and if if the fourth one had
not succeeded we would have gone
bankrupt we would had no money left so
it was very close
call um but since then space XX has done
very well it's now the the falcon you
know knock on wood is the most reliable
rocket in the world um and launches
about every um 2 to 3 days um now um
last question on risk what are the types
of risk you would not want to
take
uh well I I think in terms of risks you
don't you you don't want to take risks
that where if if you only want to take
bet the company risks if they're
absolutely necessary so they've been a
few times where saying the with Tesla we
we just had no choice but to vet the
company because if we if we're Inc if
we're doing a new vehicle program that
is uh an order of magnitude larger than
the past one then we're by we're just
unequivocally betting the company
because the new vehicle would be 90% of
production so going from uh the original
Roadster to the model S original
Roadster was only you know about 600 6
700 per year then Model S was 20,000 per
year and um and then model 3 is sort of
half sort of half a million per
year um model y over a million per year
so these are bet the company vehicles
but the the the reason we could do for
example the sabot truck which was kind
of a a radical new design was because it
wasn't a bet the company decision so I
was like okay look let's try something I
want to try something totally crazy uh
it's like what what truck with Blade
Runner Drive um except the when you're
going to drive on was yeah I think it
would be perfect for M um but like we
could try something that where there's
some chance that people might not like
it um but it's it's radical and new and
it's aesthetic aesthetically it's not
derivative it doesn't look like anything
else on the road um whereas all the
other sort of pickup trucks look like
vague copies of one another um they we
could afford to take a chance on failure
say like and talk it up to you know well
we tried you know we Tred to do
something interesting but but actually
by the way cyber truck's doing great um
so
uh but one of the things that I think is
important for Innovation is that you do
accept failure like like necessarily you
have to always look at the incentive
structure of an organization and say um
you know is is is that is that
organization properly incenting
innovation
um and with if you do Innovation you're
necessarily going to Uncharted Territory
so there going to be some mistakes they
going to be some
failures um and you have you have to
like like actually like for for SpaceX
uh rocket engine development like I keep
telling the team look if we're not
occasionally blowing up an engine on the
test stand we're not trying hard
enough you know um absolutely absolutely
how important are the P how important is
research and phds and that kind of stuff
I think of had seen somewhere you you
think most phds are
useless well I think most PhD thesis are
useless which I think is actually
objectively true if you look at how many
PhD you look at all how many phds are
created every year and how many of those
papers are actually used in anything
yeah um then objectively most PhD PCS
are have very low utility or maybe zero
um cuz nobody uses them um or so once in
a while you get something that is
spectacular but it's pretty rare um
perhaps something more useful um Ison in
the book that you haven't read uh talks
about your love for uh gaming in
particular like strategic ability gaming
and I've been thinking quite a lot about
it um what have you learned from from
those games and have have that learning
and wisdom been helpful when you have
been planning your
companies
yeah
I it's hard to say exactly what I've
learned from video games except that I I
do like playing video games as if I want
to take my mind off work I'll typically
play a very hard video game such as such
as which one well over the years there
been many many different video games um
so you know when I was a little kid it
was like you know pong and little tank
games and things and um and but if you
take a game like for example Civ ization
it's actually quite a good um it tells
you how how civilizations are formed
like I remember I remember playing the
original civilization with the
technology tree and and how you invent
different things you'd like invent
literacy and uh you know invent
democracy and invent gun gunpow all all
these things like and you start to
realize oh wow there's there are stages
to technology like you can't um you know
you can't actually get to democracy
without literacy um and um you know so
there's these these stages of of
Technology development or stages of
ideas that uh you know that's that's a
helpful framework for a company um and I
guess in in like like I say in recent
years there was there's a game I played
that was um actually developed in Sweden
called polyopia which is uh actually
quite a good game um like a lot of
people like playing chess but I think
chess is not a not a great um there's
not a lot of transfer learning from
chess to the real world because in chess
you've got only 64 squares uh it's a
setpiece battle same pieces every time
there are no terrain differences uh
there's no technology tree uh there's no
fog of War um but say a game like
polyopia has all of those things uh
random drain generation uh you know the
differences in attack and defense
bonuses depending on what type of
terrain um you've got 16 tribes I think
each with different abilities um you've
got uh a a technology tree that you can
choose to develop in different ways uh
and you've got of course fog of War um
so that I think is much more much closer
to reality yeah yeah
um um so I think politopia I mean I I
was I was playing Diablo uh for a while
pretty fun um Diablo as high level gets
very complicated they you could call it
like a a spreadsheet with a game
attached um so so that's that's and I
briefly got the the for about a day the
world record in this Avatar of zir on on
a four-person team of of clearing the
the hardest level um which was you know
not bad for someone who's like
53 basically we be 53
soon um there is still some uh twit
element to it and um it's hard to beat
kids at games with a twitch
element um but yeah I like uh I find
these games interesting if you can be
fully em mosted in a game it's
great yeah so we've had some we really
have had some technical problems today
unfortunately but um um Elon two
questions on corporate governance if I
may you know we are big shareholders in
your group um H and the first one is um
yeah we're back on sorry about these
technical things I'm not quite sure
where it comes from all right
to um some last questions here um as you
know we are big shareholders and uh made
a Model A lot of money uh on our
investment there seems to be some
latency
here
[Laughter]
okay I can hear you
here okay good sounds
good good to go
sorry I can you I think everyone can
hear
me let's see thumbs up if you can hear
me
let's try again okay okay sounds good
sounds good um now um what is the score
now of in terms of the Union in Sweden
and the collective
bargaining actually I I think uh I think
the storm has passed on that front I
think things
are reasonably good shape in Sweden
um
so uh yeah I think the are
good um yeah overall yeah I feel pretty
good about the future I mean you know
there's going to be bumpy quarters from
you know here and there but I think the
long-term future of Tesla is extremely
strong uh for example
um let's see can you guys hear me shoot
I'm back now
yeah we might be getting it might this
might be too overloaded or
something yeah I'm I'm back on just so
um yeah we met with uh we met with your
chair last month so we we have some
update but any any view on it why are
you
why why are you skeptical to
collected I playing with a soundboard
here
hello hello
hello
okay I think I think we're good yeah
last question for me um sorry I didn't
hear the answer here because I was out
but um we have covered this with with
your chair but just last question here
what do you want your legacy to
be I I don't I don't mind if uh my
legacy
is accurate or inaccurate uh provided
that I I di feeling that I've done the
right thing for the future of
Consciousness so just trying trying to
trying to have this light of
Consciousness last as long as possible
and maybe understand more about the
nature of the universe or simulation or
whatever this
is
so um I have a philos philosophy of
curiosity which is
to understand
the understand the universe understand
the nature of the universe um or even
what questions to
ask kind of like that I I I would say I
would subscribe to the Douglas Adams
hitas guys of the Galaxy School of
philosophy that we're trying to
understand what questions to ask about
the answer that is the
universe okay I think that's a good
place to end um for sure the life and
life on on this um Planet would have
been a lot more boring without you and
um
so I'm I'm glad to [ __ ] it up a little
totally all right well was good talking
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