Sam Altmans Stunning Prediction Is Deeper Than You Think

Summary

Sam Altman's recent blog post, 'The Intelligence Age,' predicts a future where AI will revolutionize sectors like healthcare, education, and software development. Altman suggests AI will become as transformative as past technologies, enabling personalized tutoring, advanced healthcare, and software creation. He also acknowledges potential labor market disruptions but remains optimistic about AI's ability to amplify human creativity and utility.

Takeaways

• 🔮 Sam Altman's recent blog post, 'The Intelligence Age', suggests that AI will bring about transformative changes akin to 'magic' within the next few decades.
• 📚 AI advancements are already impacting sectors like legal and medical advice, with technology reading documents and providing consultations.
• 🚀 Altman's 2021 blog post, 'Mo's Law for Everything', has shown remarkable accuracy in predicting current technological trends.
• 💡 Society's collective intelligence is surpassing individual intelligence, leading to an acceleration of technological progress.
• 🌐 The internet and smartphones have revolutionized communication and information access, setting a precedent for future AI-driven transformations.
• 🤖 Future AI agents are expected to act as personal experts across various fields, enabling the creation of almost anything imaginable.
• 👨‍🎓 AI tutors will provide personalized education in any subject and language, making quality education accessible and affordable.
• 🏥 Personal healthcare agents will offer tailored medical advice, potentially reducing medical errors and enhancing patient outcomes.
• 🛠️ AI is quietly revolutionizing software development, with agents capable of building personalized software solutions.
• 💰 The economic impact of AI is expected to be significant, with the potential to create new job categories and reshape existing ones.
• ⏳ Altman predicts that superintelligence could be achieved within a few thousand days, emphasizing the rapid pace of AI development.

Q & A

What did Sam Altman predict in his 2021 blog post titled 'Mo's law for everything'?

Sam Altman predicted that within the next five years, computer programs capable of thinking would be able to read legal documents and give medical advice, which is consistent with current advancements in AI technology.

What is the significance of the blog post 'The Intelligence Age' mentioned in the script?

The blog post 'The Intelligence Age' is significant because it provides insights into the future of AI and suggests that in the coming decades, AI will enable us to do things that would have seemed like magic to previous generations.

How does Sam Altman view the progress of AI in relation to societal capabilities?

Sam Altman views AI as an acceleration of societal capabilities, stating that society itself is a form of advanced intelligence. He suggests that each generation builds upon the advancements of the previous one, leading to exponential progress.

What does Sam Altman foresee AI agents being able to do in the future?

Sam Altman foresees AI agents becoming capable of forming personal AI teams of virtual experts in different areas, working together to create almost anything we can imagine.

What is the potential impact of AI on education according to the script?

AI has the potential to revolutionize education by providing personalized instruction in any subject, in any language, at any pace needed, making high-quality tutoring accessible to almost anyone.

How does the script suggest AI will change healthcare?

The script suggests that AI will change healthcare by providing personalized healthcare agents that coordinate with doctors, analyze medical histories, and provide personalized health care advice, potentially reducing medical errors.

What is the potential economic impact of AI in software development as mentioned in the script?

AI has the potential to significantly impact the software development industry by creating AI agents that can build personalized software, which could lead to a shift in the economy and change how software is developed and utilized.

What does Sam Altman believe is the most important factor in the advancement of AI?

Sam Altman believes that the most important factor in the advancement of AI is the discovery that deep learning works and gets predictably better with scale, leading to dedicated increases in resources.

What are the potential downsides of AI that Sam Altman acknowledges in the script?

Sam Altman acknowledges that AI can cause significant changes in labor markets, both positively and negatively, and that most jobs will change more quickly than people think. He emphasizes the need to maximize AI's benefits while minimizing its harm.

How does the script address concerns about the speed of AI development?

The script addresses concerns about the speed of AI development by suggesting that while AI advancements may seem rapid, they are part of a historical trend of accelerating technological progress, and society will adapt to these changes.

Outlines

00:00

🔮 Predicting the Future Impact of AI

The paragraph discusses a recent blog post by Sam Altman, highlighting its importance and accuracy in predicting future AI advancements. It references an earlier blog post from 2021 titled 'Mo's Law for Everything,' which predicted AI capabilities like reading legal documents and giving medical advice, which are now becoming a reality. The new blog post, 'The Intelligence Age,' suggests that in the coming decades, AI will enable us to perform tasks that seem like magic, accelerating technological progress and societal capabilities. It emphasizes the exponential growth of AI, with each generation building upon the last to create a smarter society.

05:00

🚀 Accelerating Technological Advancements

This section of the script delves into the transformative impact of AI on various sectors, including education and healthcare. It predicts personalized virtual tutors for any subject and language, making personalized learning accessible and affordable. The script also envisions AI agents revolutionizing software development, creating personalized software solutions. The potential for AI to reduce medical errors and provide personalized healthcare is also discussed, highlighting the significant improvements in quality and affordability that AI could bring to these fields.

10:00

🤖 AI Agents and Software Development

The paragraph showcases the capabilities of AI in software development through a demonstration of an AI agent creating an app for local landmarks. It emphasizes the transparency of the AI's process, allowing users to understand and learn from the AI's actions. The script suggests that AI will enable individuals to create personalized software solutions, potentially leading to significant economic shifts. It also touches on the early days of such technology and speculates on its future development, hinting at a future where AI could make complex software development tasks more accessible.

15:02

🌐 The Impending Era of Superintelligence

This section discusses the imminent arrival of superintelligence, as suggested by Sam Altman's blog post. It contemplates the timeline for the development of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) and superintelligence, suggesting that AGI might be achieved by 2026 or 2027. The paragraph also reflects on the acceleration of AI progress, dismissing claims that AI development is slowing down. It highlights the importance of deep learning and the dedication of increasing resources to it, as the key to unlocking the potential of AI.

20:03

🛰️ The Consequences of Superintelligence

The paragraph explores the profound implications of superintelligence, including its potential to solve complex problems like climate change and to establish space colonies. It also speculates on the possibility of discovering all of physics, which could lead to unprecedented technological advancements. The script acknowledges the potential downsides of such technology, particularly in labor markets, but suggests that AI will allow humans to amplify their abilities and focus on creative and positive endeavors.

25:05

🏗️ Transitioning to an AI-Driven Economy

In this final paragraph, the script addresses the changes AI will bring to the job market, suggesting that while many jobs will be affected, people will find new ways to be productive and useful. It touches on the need to prepare for this transition and the potential for AI to create a more prosperous world. The paragraph also raises questions about the shift in perspective regarding AI safety and the potential motivations behind current narratives around AI's impact on society and the economy.

📢 Conclusion and Call to Action

The concluding part of the script invites the audience to share their thoughts on the discussed topics and acknowledges the creator's inability to produce a video due to a voice issue. It leaves the audience with a promise to meet again in the next video, suggesting an ongoing dialogue and exploration of AI's impact on the future.

Keywords

💡AI

AI, or Artificial Intelligence, refers to the simulation of human intelligence in machines that are programmed to think like humans and mimic their actions. In the video, AI is central to discussions about the future of technology, with examples including AI providing personalized tutoring, healthcare, and software development.

💡Mo's Law for Everything

Mo's Law for Everything is a blog post by Sam Altman that predicted advancements in AI and technology. The video discusses how these predictions have been remarkably accurate, such as AI programs reading legal documents and giving medical advice, which is becoming a reality.

💡The Intelligence Age

The Intelligence Age is a term used in the video to describe the era where AI will play a significant role in society. The video suggests that within a few decades, AI will enable us to perform tasks that currently seem like magic, illustrating the rapid progression into an age dominated by intelligent machines.

💡AGI

AGI stands for Artificial General Intelligence, which is the idea of creating a machine that possesses the ability to understand or learn any intellectual task that a human being can do. The video suggests that AGI might be closer than previously thought, with implications for how we work and live.

💡Superintelligence

Superintelligence refers to an intellect that is much smarter than the best human brains in practically every field, including scientific creativity, general wisdom, and social skills. The video discusses predictions that superintelligence could be achieved within a few thousand days.

💡Personal AI

Personal AI implies AI systems that are customized to individual needs, acting as personal assistants or tutors. The video suggests a future where everyone could have a personal AI team of virtual experts in different areas, enhancing personal capabilities and productivity.

💡Software Development

Software Development in the context of the video refers to the process of creating applications or systems using AI. The video mentions a revolution in software development where AI agents can build personalized software, potentially disrupting the economy and job market.

💡Healthcare

Healthcare in the video is discussed in the context of AI's potential to revolutionize the industry. With AI, personalized healthcare agents could manage health records, provide medical advice, and reduce medical errors, leading to improved health outcomes.

💡Lifelong Learning

Lifelong Learning is the concept of learning throughout one's life. The video suggests AI will enable personalized instruction in any subject, making lifelong learning more accessible and potentially leading to a more skilled and adaptable workforce.

💡Economic Impact

Economic Impact refers to the effects of AI on jobs and the economy. The video discusses how AI could cause significant changes in labor markets, with the potential to automate many jobs but also to create new opportunities and the need for reskilling.

💡AI Safety

AI Safety is the consideration of how to ensure that AI developments do not pose risks to humanity. The video touches on the need to work towards maximizing AI's benefits while minimizing potential harm, reflecting ongoing debates about the safe development of AI.

Highlights

Sam Altman's recent blog post is crucial for predicting the future of AI.

Altman's 2021 blog post 'Mo's law for everything' accurately predicted AI advancements.

AI is now integrated into legal and medical advice, as predicted.

The new blog post titled 'The Intelligence Age' outlines the future of AI.

In a few decades, AI will enable us to do things that seem like magic.

AI is accelerating societal capabilities beyond genetic evolution.

Each generation benefits from the advancements of the previous, leading to exponential progress.

AI will enable us to work with virtual experts in various fields.

AI agents are predicted to become mainstream, offering personalized services.

OpenAI's internal document leak suggests a focus on tracking AI progress.

AI will provide personalized virtual tutors for any subject and language.

AI in healthcare is expected to reduce medical errors significantly.

AI's ability to create personalized software will revolutionize the economy.

Repet AI agent demonstrated creating an app from scratch,预示着AI在软件开发中的应用潜力。

Altman suggests superintelligence could be achieved within a few thousand days.

AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) might be achieved by early 2026 or 2027.

Deep learning's success and scalability are driving AI progress.

AI's impact on labor markets will be significant but most jobs will evolve slowly.

AI will amplify human abilities, leading to an expanding world of opportunities.

Transcripts

so today Sam mman dropped another blog

post that most people are probably going

to overlook but it's hard to grasp just

how important this blog post is and the

key things that he said that will guide

us in actually predicting where the

future is now before diving into the

blog post I want to remind you all of

another blog post Sam mman wrote in 2021

titled Mo's law for everything and the

reason I'm bringing up this one called

mors law for everything is because this

blog post if we take a look back to the

time that it was made and take a look at

the things that are going on in today's

society it is remarkably accurate in its

prediction one of the thing that he

actually said that we can take a look at

was that he stated that in the next 5

years computer programs that can think

will read legal documents and give

medical advice and this is essentially

what we are seeing right now documents

and programs and all these kinds of

things are actually happening on a

day-to-day basis a medical advice from

systems like opening eyes1 and Google's

medical models are slowly being

integrated into wider Society so when we

take a look at the fact that saman's

previous blog post from March 16th of

2021 and it's been remarkably accurate

so far we can take a look at this new

one titled the intelligence age which

was only published just yesterday and

truly understand where the future of AI

is headed now I think in order to truly

grasp what's going on here we need to

take a look at the first sent and he

said here okay and try not to get too

excited but he says in the next couple

of decades we will be able to do things

that would have seemed like magic okay

and Magic to our grandparents and the

reason I think that that is so

fascinating is because when we truly

take a look at the previous iterations

of Technology when we think about how

crazy it is that we have planes that can

fly we have fighter jets that can fly,

2,000 mph doing Sonic booms we've got

technology like AI currently that can

write things completely from scratch

we've got TVs iPhones Holograms drones

we've got all these kinds of incredible

Technologies landing on the moon

Starling I mean the list goes on and on

the internet and smartphones have

literally changed how we communicate and

access information and some people in

the early 20th century couldn't have

even dreamed or even imagined this kind

of technology and if we think about this

our grandparents are probably Amazed by

the kinds of technologies that are

around right now which means that when

we get older we're probably going to

have our minds blown by the technology

that's probably being developed at that

time now he says that of course this

phenomenon is not new but it will be

newly accelerated essentially referring

to the fact that every company right now

is really trying to invest billions and

billions of dollars into their AI

infrastructure in order to get a piece

of that AGI Pi it continues on to state

that people have become dramatically

more capable over time we can already

accomplish things now that our

predecessors would have believed to be

impossible we are more capable not

because of genetic change but because we

benefit from the infrastructure of

society being way smarter and more

capable than any one of us in an

important sense Society is itself a form

of advanced intelligence our

grandparents and the generations that

came before them built and achieved

great things and of course all of those

things we can build on top of for the

Next Generation that basically

accelerates the Next Generation which is

why technological progress it kind of

goes like this in a graph kind of just

like

uh goes like this because uh each

generation you know sets the stone for

the next one and it's like uh I guess

you could say exponential progress in a

sense so he says right here that the

story of progress will continue and our

children will be able to do things that

we can't and it won't happen all at once

but soon we will be able to work with an

AI that helps us accomplish much more

than we ever could without AI eventually

we can have a personal AI team full of

virtual experts in different areas

working together to create almost

anything we can imagine so this is where

we get into another prediction

surrounding AI agents and what they're

going to be able to do for us and I

might as well not really say prediction

they're essentially creating these

products so I'm pretty sure that they

know what's in the pipeline when you

think about it this isn't a blog post by

some futurist this is a blog post by the

guy who's at the head of the frontier

Labs so when he says a team full of

virtual experts in different areas

working together to create almost

anything we can imagine this sounds

rather accurate as this actually refers

to the leaked open AI internal document

which they are using to track AI

progress if we take a look at this we

can see that it was only recently that

we had reasoners which are the human

level problem solving with the

strawberry model and of course the next

big thing and I think that AI still

isn't in the mainstream yet because we

don't have this I think that this is

going to be the magical moment when we

actually have like an insane level of

individuals that really really start to

get what AI is able to do and I think

once we actually have that broadscale um

area where we see that okay individuals

are now starting to realize that AI is

out there and it's performing things on

our behalf that's when the acceleration

is going to be truly incredible because

it's quite like we're doubling SLT

tripling the population of individuals

that are working effectively and working

non-stop 24/7 then of course this is

where he says our children will have

virtual tutors who can provide

personalized instruction in any subject

in any language at whatever Pace they

need and I think this is one of the

things that is widely underestimated

because not only are students going to

be able to learn a lot more personalized

learning is I think in many cases a lot

more effective because you can learn at

your own speed at your own pace you've

got one-on-one with someone that can you

know explain Concepts to you but I think

the fact that you know previously it was

only certain individuals that could

afford private shors but now we're going

to get to an age where pretty much

anyone is going to be able to afford

their own private shoor perhaps just for

$20 a month and they're going to be able

to absorb as much knowledge as they want

from pretty much any subject if you

haven't already realized AI can break

down complex Concepts and explain them

to you in a way that is really easy to

understand you can talk to it as many

times as you want and it's not going to

get upset it's not going to get

frustrated it's not going to get tired

it's going to be 100% completely

understanding now I was thinking about

this quite a lot and I was like okay

this is actually pretty cool but we also

need to think about the fact that like

this isn't just for children we're not

just going to have personalized tutors

just for kids for those of you guys who

are in The Working World in the business

world you guys actually now have tutors

that pretty much understand most

advanced concepts and you're going to be

able to use those tutors to perhaps

Advance your career Advance your

business and Advance your side hustle

Prov provided you have the motivation to

engage in lifelong learning I think you

know previously of course you know

you've always had to read a book or you

know engage in certain educational

traditional methods but I think this

kind of you know learning is going to

truly open up a new area for individuals

that learn in a different kind of way

and I think this is you know really

really exciting especially for those who

want to move further on in life then of

course it continues to state that we can

imagine similar ideas for healthcare and

the ability to create any kind of

software somewhere can imagine

so I think this first sentence right

here is probably one of the most

important ones if you didn't know in the

UK alone and I think in America it's

around two there's 200,000 deaths

annually in U in the US OFA um where

there are just medical errors and you

can see that there are you know more

than 200 million medication errors in

the NHS per year which is you know

researchers have realized which is

pretty insane when you think about it

and we think about like how traditional

you know Healthcare systems are I think

once everyone has access to a personal

Healthcare agent that's able to you know

coordinate with their doctors look at

all of their vitals understand all of

their medical history and really look at

their health care in a personalized way

in you know many different reasoning

ways you know looking at 10,000

different outcomes for this person I

think it's just going to be absolutely

insane the type of medical health care

that you get and I think I think the

craziest thing about this is that this

is not even going to be that expensive I

think it's going to be really

comprehensive and over time I think it's

just going to become remarkably cheap

and even when we look at the most recent

models they've been excelling on

Healthcare benchmarks so it's no doubt

that this thing of you know ideas with

AI for healthcare it's truly going to be

better and of course this is one of the

more positive things to come from AI now

one of the things that we also have here

as well is the ability to create

software someone can imagine like any

kind of software someone can imagine and

much more and this is something that

people might not realize is slowly

happening but there is a quiet

Revolution going on in the software

development space and this isn't a video

about software developers are dead or

gone or this no no no this is just a

small tidbit where I'm referring to the

fact that there are companies out there

building you know these kind of AI

agents that are going to be able to

build software that is quite

personalized and I think this is going

to be one of the largest shakes up the

economy has seen because AI is able to

create personalized software that is

able to do many internal tasks for you

so I'm wondering is this going to the

SAS economy I mean there's many

different implications for this because

not only does it allow individuals to

become more effective because they're

able to develop their own pieces of

software for personal per purposes but

this is just something that's pretty

crazy now take a look at this repli AI

agent because I was supposed to cover

this but I unfortunately didn't get to

but this is you know an AI agent that's

able to literally do everything for you

from start to finish all the way up

until deployment and if we think about

the fact that this is the early days how

is this kind of Technology you go to be

10 years from now this is actually a

prompt from a Ted AI talk I gave about

10 months ago about agents we didn't

have the product back then but now let's

test the real product with the same with

the same prompt make an app of local

landmarks based on my location the agent

uh presented me with a plan this plan is

fully editable um I just want to add the

ability to search one of the cool things

about the progress pane is that you can

learn what it's doing so we don't want

this ever to be uh sort of obscuring uh

what the agent is doing it should be

fully transparent this could also be a

great way to learn how to build things

because the agent is sort of explaining

itself as it's doing it that's the app

see that's exactly the kind of landmarks

I would expect to see in Foster City

where we are recording this from it's

awesome and so here you can give it

feedback you can iterate with it you can

give it more features but I'll just say

yes it looks great cuz it works it's

exactly what I asked for and now the

agent will move to the next step and the

next step uh is adding search we spent a

lot of time uh building the plumbing for

this a lot of what the agent is doing is

actually doing the same kind of actions

that you would do in the IDE it's

editing the code in a similar way that

you would edit it it's installing

depencies using the same tools that we

exposed to users so all the UI that you

see in in the repet you know and love uh

is exposed to the agent so the agent is

sort of a multiplier user in the same

same environment we're about to deploy

to the cloud and when we deploy this app

there's there's no difference between

what we built here you don't have to

configure a server you don't have to do

any of you don't have to configure a

database all of that is configured for

you when I had this idea I had it when I

was traveling uh and that happened on my

phone and actually I can start the

project on my phone I actually finish

the project on my pH my phone as well

anytime you have an idea it doesn't have

to be this fleeting idea you can just

you can just put it into repet and it

start making it for you and then you

know we got this initial prototype but I

can also go and browse the code myself

uh I can use uh you know repats llms or

you can use your favorite llm the code

is all yours it's there um and um uh and

you can continue using the agent you can

switch to repet AI you can do whatever

you want with it you have full authority

over the code that the agent just uh

just created and there you have it uh

repet agent uh created a repple

configured the python environment

install dependencies wrote the code all

in two minutes and we got an app running

that we were able to deploy to the cloud

and now anyone can use it so this is a

repet agent it's available in Early

Access uh and would love your feedback

thank you that is one of the things I

always want to you know reiterate is

that you know when you see and it looks

pretty bad remember how bad mid Journey

was remember how bad these images were

remember how bad videos were I mean when

we take a look at how crazy this kind of

you know acceleration is we have to

truly understand that okay this isn't

slowing down now he says here that with

these new abilities we can have shared

prosperity to a degree that seems

unimaginable in today's future I mean in

the future and everyone's lives can be

better than anyone's life is now

Prosperity alone doesn't make people

people happy there are plenty of

miserable rich people but it would

meaningfully improve the lives of people

around the world here is one narrow way

to look at human history after thousands

of years of compounding scientific

discovery and technological progress we

have figured out how to melt sand add

some impurities and arrange it with

astonishing Precision at extraordinarily

tiny scale into computer chips run

energy through it and end up with

systems of creating increasingly capable

artificial intelligence now this

statement here is one of the funniest

statements ever because there is a video

from someone on YouTube and I think

everyone should watch this to understand

how crazy technology is it's a video

that basically shows you how to get like

a CPU um completely from scratch it's

pretty funny I'm only going to play the

first 10 seconds2 seconds of the clip

but it's a video that I think is so

important because when we see how

technological innovations can push the

boundaries of what we even thought is

possible we kind of need to think about

where we even came from and it's quite

hard to Fathom so um yeah now here's the

next thing okay it says this may turn

out to be the most consequential fact

about history so far so if you've been

you know half asleep through this video

please just pay attention to this part

because I would say that this is

probably the most important statement

okay Sam mman says that it is possible

and I didn't mean to do that that we

will have super intelligence in a few

thousand days now of course he you know

caveats it by saying it may take longer

but I'm confident we will get there this

statement is absolutely insane it is

possible we will have super intelligence

within a few thousand days now the first

implication for this statement that I

immediately thought about is I didn't

even think about super intelligence I

was like hold on that means that AGI is

most certainly coming a lot sooner than

we think people and critics have always

dismissed AI as some kind of distant

pipe dream but this statement actually

puts AGI in a new light if they are

talking okay broadly about super

intelligence which on the AI scale

actually comes a lot further after AGI

it means that AGI is almost certain or

probably already achieved which actually

leads me to think that we could get AGI

by early 2026 or early 2027 which is not

that far away which is only you know 2

years away which is pretty insane to

think about and I think this also means

that acceleration like I said before

isn't slowing down if you remember a few

months ago we did get a few articles

that they was stating that look AI is

slowing down deep learning hting a wall

yada yada yada and I think I actually

made a video with stating that look AI

progress is not slowing down at all like

you guys have it wrong and I try to

explain to you all that just because

we're not seeing a thousand new models

every single day it doesn't mean that AI

is slowing down these people are making

remarkable discoveries internally and

this is just truly accelerating the

entire AI progress and you have to

understand that things are only going to

get faster from here on out open AI

kicked off the race to AGI and it's only

a matter of time before the world is

inevitably changed now after I I thought

that okay look AGI is clearly within the

next one to two years because if they

are broadly talking about super

intelligence is clearly here we have to

think that okay that means that they

certainly did see something okay and

that leads us back to the infamous quote

what did Ilia SATA see now ilas satk has

a new company called you know safe

superintelligence and I think that that

means that this state

now holds a lot more weight the

statement that super intelligence is

Within Reach is it like Echoes now it

feels a lot more uh I guess you could

say pronounced because Sam Alman is

stating that look we're only going to

have it in a few thousand days which

means that ilaser probably has

identified the path whether it be this

reinforcement learning with Chain of

Thought or you know that qar thing I

think that showed them that all they

need is more compute and then they will

probably get there there's a million

videos on deep Dives and stuff and I'll

leave a link down to all of that stuff

but I think it's quite important to

understand that right now the

bottlenecks aren't really in actually

figuring out how the technology works

but just getting the energy and the

compute to actually you know power this

kind of stuff which is quite crazy and

when we think about the super

intelligence I always like to refer to

the you know document situational

awareness which is where it says it's

strikingly plausible that we'd go from

AGI to Super intelligence very quickly

perhaps in one year and I think think

that uh this kind of statement is not to

be messed around with because this is of

course from a former open AI employee

and I think this graph where you see

that of course we have an automated AI

researcher and then over time things

start to exponentially increase with of

course science technology robots

military Edge GDP all of these things

are just going to completely explode I

think that the future is just it's

actually you know so unpredictable that

it's incredible I mean it's it's just

you know incredible and the worst thing

about this is that I remember so many

individuals were stating that oh this

guy all he did was draw a few straight

lines on a graph and now he's claiming

that he knows the future I mean the

thing is is that when we actually take a

look at who Leopold Ashen brener is he's

someone that's not some random person he

is someone that literally worked on the

front lines for aligning super

intelligent AI with the legendary Ilia

SATA at open AI so if we aren't

listening to people like him on the

future of AI who is it that we're going

to be listening to I mean I I I truly

don't understand and the crazy thing

about this is that across the consensus

in terms of predictions for future

developments and you know inflection

points and turning points it's a

consistent 2027 to 2030 that we get this

you know future world that's going to be

drastically different than the one we

are in now now what's crazy about this

is that he then says how did we get to

the doorstep of the next leap in

prosperity in three words deep learning

worked in 15 words deep learning worked

got predictably better with scale and we

dedicated increase ing resources to it

so I think this one is really cool

because of course we can see that he's

speaking about of course the technology

which showed us that look all we need is

more data better algorithms more

computes more scale and we can do

incredible things he says that's really

it humanist discovered an algorithm that

could truly learn any distribution of

data or really the underlying rules that

produce any distribution of the to a

shocking degree of precision the more

comput and data available the better it

gets at helping people solve hard

problems and I find that no matter how

much time I spend thinking about this I

can never really internalize how

consequential this is now for me the

super intelligence thing it wasn't the

craziest thing this was the craziest

thing for me um was that he said

although it will happen incrementally

astounding triumphs fixing the climate

establishing a space colony and the

discovery of all physics eventually will

become common place I don't think people

truly understand

what this statement mean the discovery

of all physics will be eventually become

common place guys do you remember what

happened once we discovered a few laws

of physics we were able to like fly guys

like that's insane like sometimes I

still see planes and I'm still like this

thing makes no sense you know it would

look like magic to people you know 200

years ago look like absolute like our

phones and stuff like that so once we're

able to figure out you know a few things

there's only a few like bottlenecks and

like once we you know discover them like

they just it just remarkably changes how

the future is in terms of the entire

fields that we're going to be in the

entire you know the way the world works

I mean like if you try to explain

current Society to someone 250 years ago

it's like it's it's it's quite hard you

know to Fathom the smartphone the

internet the connectedness the travel

the I mean I don't know my mind's

getting kind of blown by like trying to

explain all of this but I think the

discovery of all physics I mean I can

truly understand how it happens I mean I

think once you have an automated AI

researcher that's able to truly like get

all the context from every single

research paper and just research in

certain areas 24/7 and we're able to

just duplicate that like a million

different times we're going to be able

to condense you know years of scientific

research down to you know pretty much a

few years or even a few months once the

compute becomes available so I think

it's going to be really incredible to

see that kind of progress happening in

our lifetime now of course there is no

good without bad and samman talks about

here he says as we've seen with other

Technologies there will also be

downsides and we need to start working

now to maximize ai's benefits while

minimizing its harm as one example we

expect that this technology can cause

significant change in labor markets good

or bad and in the coming years but most

jobs will change more slowly than people

think and I have no fear that we'll run

out of things to do even if they don't

look like real jobs to us today people

have an innate desire to create and to

be useful to each other and AI will

allow us to amplify our own abilities

like never before as a society we will

be back in an expanding world and we can

once again Focus on playing positive

some games now I think it's always good

to talk about you know bad things that

are going to happen of course the job

market is going to be pretty insane once

AI you know eats around like I think you

know it's going to affect like 60% of

all jobs around the world and I think

it's going to be quite kind there going

to be a weird period where people just

don't have a job like you know a lot of

people and it's going to be like really

weird the economy is definitely going to

change is something that I talk about in

my community how you can you know most

certainly take advantage of this

transition because it's definitely going

to be a transition period and you know

there's going to be some winners and

some losers and I think I would a lot

rather be on the winner side and if

you're in AI um you're definitely early

like you're you're really early I think

the only time you're going to be late to

this place is if you are um you know

only you know taking action in the next

two to three years because once we get

agents the general public is going to

truly understand what AI is able to do

so I think that that is of course

something to discuss but what was crazy

okay and I saw this on Twitter and once

again I'm not like an AI safety person

but I do think this is kind of

interesting and I think it I I think

it's worth while to be mentioned okay

someone um you know referenced the fact

that Sam alman's blog from 2015 is a

little bit different to the one from

2024 samman says that development of

superhuman M machine intelligence is

probably the greatest step to the

continued existence of su of humanity

and then in 2024 he says this technology

can cause a significant change in labor

markets good and bad but most jobs will

change you know more than people think

okay so this this you know tweet is

basically saying that look before he was

tweeting about super intelligence now he

was stating that it was dangerous and

now he's stating that this is a good

thing that his company's there I think

either it's one or two things I think

either one we have the sense that you

know maybe they've solved the

interpretability problem which is where

they truly understand what's going on in

AI I'm not so sure of that because I

think that that's quite hard and that

would require incredible breakthroughs I

don't think that it's you know possible

I just think that it's really hard

especially with something that's smarter

than you or I think it's the second

issue which is probably more reasonable

is that they might just be avoid voiding

this kind of you know AI safety thing

because they are raising money again at

a huge valuation so I think they're

trying to avoid anything that could

reduce that valuation and you know scare

off investors and I mean um if you've

seen the recent funding round it's been

absolutely incredible open air has been

flooded with investors um and they've

had to put in like $250 million minimum

you can see here it says investors pile

into open AI 6 billion funding round in

unprecedented bet so this is really

incredible like I can't like I mean I'm

not going to Li guys if I had that kind

of money I certainly would be piling it

into open AI because they are about to

eat like you know just billions and

trillions of dollars uh so I think it's

going to be incredible so with that

being said let me know what you think

about this document I know I I was going

to make a video on this yesterday but

unfortunately my voice just disappeared

so if you guys did enjoy the video I

will see you all in the next one