SHOCKING ALASKA POLL: Donald Trump Leads by FOUR in SOLID Red State

Summary

A recent poll by Alaska Survey Research shows a surprising five-point lead for Donald Trump over Kamala Harris in Alaska, traditionally a Republican stronghold. This shift, possibly influenced by the presidential debate and the state's changing political landscape, signals potential trouble for Republicans. The poll's accuracy in predicting past elections lends credibility to these findings, suggesting Alaska could become a battleground state in future elections.

Takeaways

• 📊 A recent poll by Alaska Survey Research shows Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris by only 5 points among likely voters in Alaska, signaling a tighter race than expected.
• 🔍 The poll was conducted post-debate, suggesting that the debate may have influenced voter sentiment, with only 29% believing Trump won versus 52% for Harris.
• 🏳️‍🌈 Alaska, traditionally a Republican stronghold, has seen a shift away from the GOP since Sarah Palin's vice presidential run in 2008, possibly impacting Trump's numbers.
• 📉 Trump's lead of 48% to 44% is a significant drop from his double-digit victories in 2016 and 2020, indicating a potential vulnerability for Republicans.
• 🤔 The poll's accuracy is highlighted by its successful prediction of Mary Peltola's special election win in 2022, despite Alaska's challenging polling landscape.
• 🗳️ Alaska's unique ranked-choice voting system and the influence of Native American voters, who tend to lean Democratic, contribute to the state's changing political dynamics.
• 🔎 The poll's findings could be a microcosm of a larger national trend, with voters potentially turning away from Trump's 'Make America Great Again' style of politics.
• 🚨 For Republicans, the narrowing margins in Alaska are a warning sign that they cannot afford to lose any vote share from 2020 if they wish to win in 2024.
• 🌐 The implications of Alaska's shifting political landscape could extend beyond 2024, potentially making it a target for Democrats in future election cycles.
• 📈 The debate's impact and Alaska's changing political climate may be indicative of a broader rejection of Trump's policies and persona among voters.

Q & A

What is the current polling advantage of Donald Trump over Kamala Harris in Alaska according to the new poll?

The new poll shows Donald Trump with a five-point advantage over Kamala Harris in Alaska.

When was the poll conducted that shows the current standings between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in Alaska?

The poll was conducted after the debate on September 11th through September 12th.

What was the voter turnout in the 2020 presidential election in Alaska for Donald Trump?

In the 2020 presidential election, Alaska voted for Donald Trump by double digits.

How has Alaska's political landscape shifted since Sarah Palin was on the ticket in 2008?

Alaska has seen a unique change and shift away from the Republican party since Sarah Palin was on the ticket in 2008, with a closer race in recent elections.

What was the percentage of voters in Alaska who said they watched the presidential debate?

67% of the surveyed voters in Alaska said they watched the presidential debate.

Which candidate did more voters in Alaska believe won the presidential debate, according to the poll?

52% of voters said Kamala Harris won the debate, compared to 29% who said Donald Trump won.

What is the significance of the 2022 special election in Alaska for the state's political dynamics?

The 2022 special election in Alaska, where Mary Peltola won, was significant as it showed a shift in the state's political dynamics and was accurately predicted by Alaska Survey Research.

How accurate was Alaska Survey Research's prediction in the 2022 special election for Alaska's House seat?

Alaska Survey Research was highly accurate in predicting the 2022 special election results, with only minor differences in the predicted and actual percentages.

What is the historical significance of Alaska's House seat win by a Democrat in the 2022 special election?

The 2022 special election was the first Democratic victory in Alaska since before Roe v. Wade was written into law, marking a significant change in the state's political landscape.

Why might Alaska become a target for Democrats in future election cycles?

If Alaska continues to show a narrowing gap in favor of the Republican party, as indicated by the current polling data, it may become a target for Democrats in future election cycles, especially if it becomes a swing state.

What does the current polling data suggest about the potential for Alaska to be competitive in the 2024 election?

The current polling data suggests that Alaska could be more competitive in the 2024 election than in previous years, with Donald Trump's lead being significantly narrower than in 2016 and 2020.

Outlines

00:00

📊 Alaska's Shifting Political Landscape

The script discusses a recent poll from Alaska Survey Research indicating a tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in the 2024 election. Trump leads with a slim margin of 47% to 42% among 1,254 likely voters, which is a significant change from previous years where Alaska was a solidly Republican state. The poll was conducted post-debate, and the results suggest that Alaska, which voted for Trump by double digits in 2020, may be shifting. The script also notes that Alaska has seen a unique change since Sarah Palin's vice-presidential run in 2008, with Democrats like Mary Peltola making inroads. The debate's impact is evident, as only 29% of surveyed Alaskans felt Trump won, compared to 52% for Harris. This could signal a larger national trend of dissatisfaction with Trump's performance.

05:01

🗳️ Historical Voting Patterns and Special Elections in Alaska

This paragraph delves into Alaska's historical voting patterns, noting that while Democrats haven't won the state in decades, recent elections show a closer race. It references the 2022 special election where Mary Peltola won with 39.7% of the vote against a combined Republican vote share of around 60%. The script highlights the accuracy of Alaska Survey Research's predictions during this special election, where they correctly forecasted Peltola's victory over Sarah Palin. It also discusses how Alaska's unique ranked-choice voting system and the influence of Native American voters might be contributing to these shifts. The paragraph suggests that Alaska's political climate is changing, with voters moving away from traditional Republican figures like Palin towards more moderate or Democratic candidates.

10:03

🔍 The Impact of National Figures on Alaskan Politics

The script explores how national figures like Donald Trump and Sarah Palin are impacting Alaskan politics. It suggests that Trump's association with Palin, who was once popular but has fallen out of favor, is driving voters away from the Republican party. The paragraph discusses how Alaska, which was once a safe Republican state, is now competitive due to these figures. It also mentions the 2022 special election where Peltola's win was the first Democratic victory in Alaska since before Roe v. Wade. The script suggests that if Alaska continues to narrow its margins for Republicans, it could become a target for Democrats in future elections, indicating a larger problem for the GOP nationally.

15:04

🌐 Broader Implications for US Politics

The final paragraph of the script discusses the broader implications of Alaska's changing political landscape for US politics. It notes that if Alaska becomes a swing state, it could signal a significant shift in the nation's political dynamics. The paragraph also mentions the importance of Native American voters and rural voters in Alaska, who tend to lean more Democratic. It suggests that if Democrats continue to make inroads in Alaska, it could become a model for future Democratic campaigns in other traditionally conservative states. The script concludes by emphasizing the importance of Alaska as a potential bellwether for national political trends and the need for Republicans to address the changing sentiments in the state.

Keywords

💡Battleground state

A 'battleground state', also known as a 'swing state', is a term used in American politics to describe states that could go either way in an election, meaning they are not strongly leaning towards one political party. In the video, Alaska is discussed as a potential battleground state, which is significant because it has historically leaned Republican but recent polls suggest a tighter race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

💡Poll

A 'poll' in the political context refers to a survey of public opinion regarding various political matters, such as candidate preference in an election. The video discusses a new poll showing a close race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in Alaska, indicating a shift in political dynamics within the state.

💡Debate

In politics, a 'debate' is a formal discussion where opposing arguments are put forward, typically between candidates. The video mentions a presidential debate that seems to have influenced voter perceptions and possibly contributed to the tightening of the race in Alaska, as indicated by the poll results post-debate.

💡Electorate

The 'electorate' refers to all the people who are entitled to vote in an election. In the context of the video, the term is used to describe the group of 1,254 likely voters in Alaska whose preferences were measured in the poll, reflecting the broader political sentiment in the state.

💡RFK Jr

RFK Jr, or Robert F. Kennedy Jr., is mentioned in the video as a candidate who received a significant percentage of the vote in the poll, which is unusual and could be indicative of a splintering of the vote or a lack of strong support for the main candidates.

💡Ranked Choice voting

Ranked-choice voting is an electoral system where voters rank candidates by preference on their ballots. If a candidate wins a majority of first-preference votes, they are declared the winner. If not, the candidate with the fewest first-preference votes is eliminated, and their votes are redistributed based on the voters' second preferences. The video discusses how this system might impact the election outcomes in Alaska.

💡Sarah Palin

Sarah Palin, a former governor of Alaska and vice presidential candidate, is mentioned as a significant figure in the state's political history. The video suggests that her association with Donald Trump and her fall from grace might be contributing factors to the shifting political landscape in Alaska.

💡Mary Peltola

Mary Peltola is a Democratic representative from Alaska who won a special election, as mentioned in the video. Her victory is highlighted as a sign of the changing political tide in Alaska, as it represents a break from the long-standing Republican dominance in the state.

💡Make America Great Again

This phrase, often abbreviated as 'MAGA', is a slogan associated with the political campaign and presidency of Donald Trump. In the video, it is suggested that the 'MAGA' style of campaigning, which includes strong nationalist and conservative themes, may be losing favor among Alaskan voters.

💡Native American vote

The 'Native American vote' refers to the voting preferences and political engagement of Native American communities. The video notes that Alaska has a significant Native American population that tends to lean Democratic, which could be a factor in the state's changing political landscape.

Highlights

New poll shows Donald Trump with a five-point lead over Kamala Harris in Alaska.

Alaska, traditionally a Republican stronghold, is now a battleground state.

Alaska Survey Research's poll conducted post-debate shows a close race between Trump and Harris.

Trump's lead is seen as damaging due to Alaska's historical Republican support.

RFK Jr.'s 5% support post-dropout could be a factor in Trump's reduced lead.

Alaska has shifted away from the Republican party since 2008.

67% of surveyed Alaskans watched the presidential debate, influencing voter sentiment.

Only 29% of Alaskan viewers thought Trump won the debate, versus 52% for Harris.

Alaska Survey Research is known for its accuracy in predicting election outcomes.

In 2022, Alaska Survey Research accurately predicted Mary Peltola's victory in a special election.

Alaska's unique electoral dynamics are challenging for polling accuracy.

Trump's 2020 victory in Alaska was by double digits, a significant drop from 2016.

Alaska's Native American vote and rural voters' Democratic lean could impact election results.

Alaska's shift towards competitiveness could signal a larger national trend.

The 2024 Alaska poll results are a wake-up call for the Republican party.

Alaska could become a target for Democrats in future election cycles.

The debate's impact on Alaskan voters suggests a possible nationwide shift away from Trump.

Transcripts

Friday September 13th 2024 and today we

are going to be talking about the

Battleground state of Alaska a new poll

today showing Donald Trump with just a

five-point advantage over vice president

kamla Harris in the big group poll being

done in the state of Alaska entirely

conducted after the debate September

11th through September 12th released by

Alaska survey research the data they

provided showed that amongst a group of

100 uh sorry

1,254 likely voters here we find that

Donald Trump maintains an advantage 47

to 42 to over KLA Harris and when it

comes pushed 48 to 44 across the overall

electorate now 48 to 44 and 47 to 42 are

really damaging numbers for Donald Trump

RFK Jr getting a whopping 5% entirely

post Dropout and a big reason why we

might be seeing Donald Trump doing so

poorly against KLA Harris is because

Alaska is a state that has had a unique

change and shift away from the

Republican party ever since John McCain

and Sarah Palin ran together back in

2008 in 2008 Sarah Palin being on the

ticket being the incumbent governor of

the state of Alaska brought a massive

Victory across the state that has

largely been seen as solidly Republican

Democrats haven't been able to win the

state in decades and it looks like this

election cycle may not be the time at

which it changes but it does show a far

closer race and a shocking new poll from

one of the most accurate pollsters

across the state what they find is that

Donald Trump receiving 48% of the vote

to KLA Harris's 44% really bodess bad

news for Donald Trump on the national

level because Alaska is a state that

back in 2020 voted for Donald Trump by

double digits as well as in 2016 what's

interesting too is that the majority of

people in the state of Alaska that were

surveyed here had watched the

presidential debate 67% say yes they

watched this debate to 33% and just 29%

of them say Donald Trump won the debate

compared to 52% of Voters saying that

KLA Harris instead won that debate and

the reason why that matters is because

it is clear that this debate did in fact

change some people's minds around the

state of Alaska and across the country

we've seen recent polls on the National

head-to-head showing KLA Harris

expanding her lead to Five Points

Nationwide in the two released National

polls which shows again good news for

KLA Harris but I want us to understand a

bit more around the Alaska survey

research poll and why I believe it to be

possibly one of the best polls for any

Battleground State across the country

especially given that Alaska is a state

that receives very little resources from

both parties as well as very little

resources in actually understanding its

electoral Dynamic now if you've been

watching me for a while you remember

that I covered the 2022 special election

in the state of of Alaska that Mary pela

ended up winning in a shocking shocking

Victory she received just 39.7% of the

vote in the first round the combined

Republican vote share was just around

60% across the state and so it seemed as

if Democrats really had lost any and all

opportunity to win in this state they

thought that there wouldn't be an

opportunity for Democrats to end up

being in a position where they have the

majority of the vote in the state of

Alaska after all a combined Republican

vote share being nearly 60% is a really

hard thing to crack when you're looking

for a majority of the vote especially in

a ranked Choice voting system but Alaska

survey research had predicted right

before the election what ended up

actually happening and it was quite

interesting to see just how accurate

they were in 2022 now this is from one

of the posters I know it doesn't seem

too official but it's coming straightly

straight from Twitter because Alaska Sur

research again was one of the few

polling firms across the state that also

had not been receiving as much national

attention until this special election

where they nailed it what they found was

that in the first round of voting Mary

paler would receive 39.4% Sarah

26.9% Nick baggage 25.8 now we did see

that Sweeney would be eliminated she

ended up dropping out before the race

had been able to be cast but the round

one votes here were 39.4% for Mary POA

and the reason I bring that up is

because when you take a look at the

actual results it was 39.7% off by just

0.3% Sarah Palin went up slightly Nick

beit went up slightly but that is to be

expected as another candidate departs

from the race and overall Mary Pala was

nearly identical to what the margin had

actually said now here's where they went

wrong they said that begic would make it

through to the final round but what they

decided to do was do hypotheticals Nick

begic versus Mary Pala and Sarah Palin

versus Mary Pala now they found that

Nick begic who was long seen as the more

pragmatic and more traditional

conservative was going to defeat Mary

POA by roughly nine points this would be

a good result for Democrats given that

they don't really come that close in the

state of Alaska but against Sarah Palin

this was the big shock they predicted

that Mary POA would defeat Sarah Palin

by five points across this state now we

remember Sarah Palin was the governor in

this state she was arguably very popular

up until she ran for vice president when

she really fell out of The Graces not

only with the state of Alaska but also

we saw very much on the national level

but this fivepoint Advantage here Mary

POA had over Sarah Palin actually came

to fruition on Election Day when they

cast the ballots where Mary POA ended up

winning by roughly three points and so

it was a slight overestimation for

Democrats here but at large they really

made the Mark here they were able to

accurately gauge the electorate in a

state that really does not do well for

polling given how rural it is how sparse

it is uh how few voters there are in

this that are willing to pick up a phone

and actually answer a survey then we

move on to the special elections regular

election the same candidates had to run

and so was the top three running in the

state of Alaska what we found was that a

lot of these polls were really all over

the place but the most accurate one we

saw through the election was one that

they released back in October what they

found right at the end of October just

days before the election it was November

3rd uh or not November 3rd uh November

8th 2022 Mary POA in the first round

actually bumped up quite significant L

supposed to get 48.9% of the vote Sarah

Palin at 25.6 uh Nick begagit at 20.5

libertarian at 5 then you move over down

to the round two Mary pela would clear

and she would be able to win what we

found here was that Mary pela Not only

was able to win against Sarah Palin was

that she was already able to defeat her

by roughly the margin that Alaska survey

research had predicted and when it comes

down to that first round polling 48.9%

take a look at the actual

48.8% it was as if it was off by just a

fra of it which it was off by just 0.1%

so Alaska survey research ended up

nearly meeting the moment here and

predicting the final margin again

slightly overestimating Mary Pala but

only by a fraction and ultimately the

prediction ended up being correct and so

then came the new poll that they

released just today from the state of

Alaska showing Donald Trump with a five

and fourpoint advantage over KLA Harris

in what honestly should be a shell shock

to the Republican party because as I've

been saying Alaska is this state the

Republicans have been able to win in for

quite some time in 2016 Donald Trump won

it by 14 but then in 2020 it became a

10-point state Republicans have never

expected a state like Alaska to be a

Battleground state it had not voted for

a democrat in over 50 years and there

was no real reason to believe the

Democrats in 2016 2012 especially 2008

and also 2020 were going to come within

a point where Alaska could be

competitive but it is because of

Democrats like Mary Pala and Republicans

like Donald Trump who push away the

Republican electorate in the base people

like Sarah Palin who ended up making

voters who were ranking a republican

first ranking Mary Pala second because

they couldn't stomach the idea of a

representative Sarah Palin and they

couldn't stomach the idea of a president

Donald Trump you're finding that those

voters are the driving factor in making

Alaska more competitive and so Donald

Trump ended up getting 52% of the vote

back in Alaska 53% actually Joe Biden at

43% 42 43% rough running roughly even

with the data we're seeing now in the

state of Alaska it isn't necessarily

that Democrats are getting more and more

of the vote share but rather that the

Republicans at the top of the the ticket

are getting less of the vote share here

and it's because voters are turning away

from Donald Trump himself but a

six-point swing or a fivepoint swing

whether you want to look at it from the

positive or you know more negative lens

for Republicans either way it is a

really bad sign that Democrats are in a

position where they are within reach in

this state because it really shouldn't

be a Battleground state it has been long

heralded as this safe Republican state

that can rely on it for the Senate they

can rely on it for the governorship they

can rely on it for the house and

Democrats sometimes break through in

2008 Democrats won the senate election

in the state of Alaska only to be

completely defeated in 2014 Independence

have broken through in the governorship

only to be defeated in the next election

cycle it is very rare that Democrats do

well in Alaska and in fact Mary P's

victory in the special election was the

first Democratic victory in Alaska since

before roie Wade was written into law in

fact Alaska had the same representative

Don Young from 1972 a year before we saw

roie Wade put precedent into law by the

Supreme Court and he died passed away

unfortunately in 2022 prompting this

special election which Democrats were

able to win for the first time having

vacated the seat now with this

opportunity they were able to win for

the first time in over half a century

and so it was very very very important

for Democrats that they did well in

Alaska because it showed a larger

movement Across the Nation that voters

were in fact fed up with the make

America great again style of campaigning

the make America great against style of

Republican even in a state like Alaska

Sarah Palin again who had record High

approval when she was tapped to be John

McCain's VP in 2008 had fallen so far

from Grace not necessarily on her own

account because even after the 2008

election voters in Alaska didn't sour on

her immediately it was her association

with Donald Trump who does not hold a

high regard in the state voters do not

like him they don't want him they

begrudgingly vote for him and that shows

in the election results it's the only

reason why Alaska narrowed down from

2012 to 2016 why it even further

narrowed down from 2016 to 2020 and why

by all signs by the gold standard poll

Alaska survey research will narrow down

again from 2020 to

2024 there is reason for all of this and

voters clearly have been sending a

message in Alaska multiple multiple

times Donald Trump and his make America

grade again crew are not welcome in the

way the McCain family was the Palin

family was the Romney family was that is

the way that voters in Alaska have

really started to show their disdain for

Donald Trump and what is also unique to

the state of Alaska is the vote of

Native Americans the vote of Voters who

really don't Encompass a large portion

of the American population when it comes

down to voting percentage and also tend

to be the most democratic it also is a

state where rural voters tend to be more

democratic than not you can take a look

at some of the outskirts this looks like

a map that if Democrats were to take the

same Republican Playbook and say my

state is more blue than red by map why

don't I live in a blue state right all

of those arguments that have been made

and and clearly are articulated by many

members of the Trump Trump team Alaska

is not one of those States and so that's

why it really is in a position where

Democrats see a prime opportunity and

see a different style of campaigning

that might work for them unique to

Alaska and they have been able to do so

with representative Mary pela who right

now is in a position where she could

very well win re-election even though

she's in a head-to-head race what is

normally a rank Choice voting scenario

so essentially what happened was that

the top four the bottom two decided to

drop out of the race ultimately now it

is a two-way race and what is

interesting to is that up until this

election we're seeing Mary POA and Nick

begic are neck and neck this race should

not be neck and neck Republicans should

be able to win this race with ease

remember the last few election Cycles

Republicans have had no struggle or no

problem in the state of Alaska the

closest it got was a six-point margin in

2018 because Democrats ran a stellar

candidate and really caught Republicans

when they didn't even have the money to

focus on Alaska then they got their

things together they started to win

Alaska by more but then came 2022 where

Mary Pala as a Democrat changed the way

that Democrats campaign in this state

and Republicans started to realize that

maybe parts of their brand were toxic

now we're seeing that even more but

Alaska could also be really a point to a

larger problem for the nation where

voters here who are watching the debate

are turning more away from Donald Trump

it's no secret that Alaska is a state

that Republicans Should Have and Have

clearly relied on in the past and when

you take a look at their matchup against

Biden Donald Trump did double in terms

of margins eight points instead of four

points and that is something that really

reminds me that Alaska may not be this

state that is uh you know entirely for

the Republicans but against the right

Democrat rather necessarily the wrong

Democrat it does good results for the

GOP we saw that you know roughly a year

ago Donald Trump LED Joe Biden by eight

points across the state and again this

is a really strong poll this is a really

really accurate pollster that might

ultimately be slightly overestimating

Democrats but regardless it is a shift

nonetheless from the GOP which

Republicans cannot afford because any

shift from the 2020 election means they

lose this race right this isn't some

type of Republicans have a bench of

states that they can just go ahead and

freely lose without concern about uh

losing the election no they can't afford

to lose a single percentage of vote

share from the 2020 election otherwise

they will not be elected this coming

November and so Alaska is one of those

states where I think also too if this

state becomes more routinely pulled and

more routinely on the radar for National

Democrats it could become a republican

problem for the Republicans down the

line because it may not be this election

cycle but if Donald Trump wins the state

of Alaska by six points uh in 2024 that

will be a state of the Democrats Target

in 2028 another interesting way to look

at this too is that when you take a look

across the nation from the 2020 election

results Alaska went to Trump by just

10.1% I say just or actually just 10% I

say just 10% because there are other

states that are historically much more

competitive that voted more for either

side of the aisle than the state of

Alaska which should help put this into

context Colorado ended up voting for

Biden by 14 points that matters in New

Mexico Democrats ended up winning by 11

in Virginia Democrats ended up winning

by 10 right they're winning some of

these states that historically have been

3 2 1. States for Democrats Alaska voted

less for Trump than Democrats won in New

Mexico in Colorado in Virginia and even

in some cases the margins here in Alaska

rivaled that of states that are

traditionally you know more competitive

for Democrats and also too they rivaled

margins that Republicans really are

terrified about anything 10 points or

less in states that have historically

been so conservative are things that

they need to watch for and look for

States like Texas which in 2016 narrowed

down to being a single-digit state for

Republicans for the first time in

decades in 2016 when Trump swing swung

every single other Battleground state to

the right Texas swung to the left got on

the radar and the agenda for Democrat

Republicans in 2020 as well as Democrats

and then again it narrowed up again and

now they're doing protection in the

state for 2024 and years Beyond but

overall what I take away from this

Alaska poll isn't that democrats should

invest in it this cycle but that it

absolutely and may very well be a swing

state in the 2028 2032 even the off-ear

election Cycles because that is the

current state of the race the most

accurate pollster the gold standard

across the state of Alaska is showing

Donald Trump within five points in the

state and amongst different voters four

points that is a very different type of

Alaska that we we had worked with since

they started this YouTube channel in

2017 and Republicans should be really

worried because if Alaska is narrowing

down to four or five points it means a

larger swing away from the rest of the

nation especially in the aftermath of

the presidential debate where voters

very clearly even in a red State believe

KLA Harris won so thank you guys so much

for watching watching this video make

sure to comment down suggestions below

subscribe on the left if you haven't

already and check out the Instagram and

Twitter at the top left of the screen

there's also a Discord server if you to

go ahead and join on the screen there's

a video you can watch and then a

playlist for my 2024 house election

analysis videos again thank you guys so

much for watching and I will see you all

tomorrow