Top-Rated POLLSTER Projects HARRIS Landslide VICTORY in 2024 Election

Summary

In this video, the host discusses a significant poll by Selzer for the Kamala Harris campaign, highlighting its importance due to Selzer's A+ rating and accuracy in Iowa. The poll shows Donald Trump leading with 47%, followed by Harris at 43%, and RFK Jr. at 6%. This data, post-debate, suggests a shrinking lead for Trump and a substantial gap for Harris compared to Biden's 2020 performance. The video explores how these insights could influence the election, with a focus on the potential for Harris to win decisively based on current trends.

Takeaways

• 📊 The Selzer poll, conducted by the De Moine Register, is highly regarded for its accuracy in predicting Iowa caucus outcomes.
• 🔍 Kamala Harris is currently trailing behind Donald Trump in the polls, with Trump leading at 47% and Harris at 43%.
• 🏆 Despite RFK Jr's withdrawal from the race, he still garners 6% of the vote, indicating residual support.
• ⏰ The poll's timing, post-presidential debate, is crucial as it captures voter sentiment immediately following a significant political event.
• 📉 Trump's lead has narrowed from an 8% margin in 2020 to a 4% lead in the current poll, suggesting a shift in voter dynamics.
• 📉 Harris's support is 4 percentage points lower than Biden's in the 2020 election, indicating an underperformance in comparison.
• 🗺️ The poll suggests a potential electoral shift that could impact the broader election landscape, with implications for key battleground states.
• 🌟 Harris's national polling shows a 2.8% lead, indicating a positive trend that contrasts with her performance in Iowa.
• 🔄 The shift in Iowa's political landscape, moving 4% to the left, could signal a broader trend that might affect other states.
• 🏆 The video suggests that if Harris can replicate Iowa's 4% shift nationwide, it could lead to a substantial change in voter preferences and a potential landslide victory.

Q & A

Who is the pollster mentioned in the script known for her accuracy and expertise in Iowa?

The pollster mentioned in the script is J. Ann Selzer, who is renowned in the polling industry with an A+ rating and is regarded as one of the best pollsters in the nation, particularly for her work in Iowa.

What is the significance of the poll conducted by Selzer in the context of the Kamala Harris campaign?

The poll conducted by Selzer is significant for the Kamala Harris campaign because it provides insights into the current political landscape in Iowa, which is a crucial state in the election. The poll's timing, coming after a major debate, captures the immediate impact of the debate on voter preferences.

What was Donald Trump's lead in Iowa according to the Selzer poll mentioned in the script?

According to the Selzer poll mentioned in the script, Donald Trump is leading in Iowa with 47% of the vote, giving him a 4% lead over Kamala Harris who has 43%.

How does the 4% lead of Donald Trump in Iowa compare to his 2020 election performance?

In the 2020 election, Donald Trump won Iowa by an 8% margin. The fact that his current lead has shrunk by half, to 4%, suggests a shifting dynamic in the state that could have implications for the broader election landscape.

What is the current percentage of the vote for Kamala Harris according to the Selzer poll?

Kamala Harris follows with 43% of the vote according to the Selzer poll.

What does the script suggest about Kamala Harris's performance in Iowa compared to Joe Biden's 2020 results?

The script suggests that Kamala Harris is significantly underperforming compared to Joe Biden's 2020 results in Iowa. Biden won Iowa by a substantial margin, and Harris's current numbers are 4 percentage points lower.

What is the implication of the poll results for the Kamala Harris campaign?

The poll results imply that the Kamala Harris campaign needs to address the factors contributing to her underperformance in Iowa. If the election were held tomorrow, the poll suggests that Trump would win Iowa by a 4% margin, which is a notable reduction from his 2020 performance.

How does the script analyze the potential impact of a 4% shift to the left in various states on the electoral map?

The script analyzes that a 4% shift to the left in various states could significantly reshape the electoral map, potentially turning traditionally Republican states into Democratic victories and solidifying Democratic leads in other states, which could lead to a landslide victory for Kamala Harris.

What is the forecast electoral vote count for Kamala Harris according to the script?

The script's current forecast shows a 319 to 219 electoral map in favor of Kamala Harris, which reflects a substantial shift in the Electoral landscape due to the latest poll results.

What does the script suggest about the broader implications of the Iowa poll results for the upcoming election?

The script suggests that the Iowa poll results indicate potential shifts in voter sentiment that could influence the upcoming election. If Kamala Harris can replicate the trend of outperforming Biden's 2020 margins by 4% across the entire country, it would signify a substantial shift in voter preferences.

Outlines

00:00

📊 Kamala Harris' Rise in Iowa Polls: A Significant Shift

The video discusses a crucial poll from the De Moines Register conducted by the highly respected pollster J. Ann Selzer, which shows a narrowing lead for Donald Trump in Iowa with 47%, compared to Kamala Harris' 43%. This poll is significant due to its timing post-presidential debate, reflecting immediate voter sentiment. The results indicate a substantial decrease in Trump's lead compared to the 2020 election and a notable underperformance by Harris compared to Joe Biden's 2020 results. The video suggests that if these trends continue, it could signal a broader shift in voter preferences and a potential challenge to Republican strongholds.

05:01

🔍 Analyzing the Impact of Polling Trends on the 2024 Election

This segment delves into the implications of the Iowa poll on the 2024 election, highlighting the shift in voter preferences and the potential for a more competitive race. It discusses how Kamala Harris's performance in Iowa, despite initial expectations, shows a remarkable shift that could reflect a broader national trend. The video explores the possibility of Harris outperforming Biden's 2020 margins by 4% across the country, which would significantly reshape the electoral map. It also speculates on how this shift could affect traditionally Republican states, turning them into potential Democratic victories, and suggests a potential landslide victory for Harris if these trends continue.

10:03

🗺️ Electoral Map Shifts and Predictions for Kamala Harris

The final paragraph focuses on the potential electoral map shifts and makes predictions based on the current polling data. It outlines how a 4% shift to the left in various states could turn traditionally Republican states into Democratic victories, and how states that were less competitive could now be in play. The video concludes with a forecast of a 319 to 219 electoral vote win for Kamala Harris, reflecting a substantial shift in the electoral landscape due to the latest poll results. The presenter expresses optimism for Harris's chances in the 2024 election based on the current trends and encourages viewers to subscribe for more content leading up to the election.

Keywords

💡Poll

A poll, in the context of the video, refers to a survey of public opinion regarding political candidates or issues. It's a snapshot of voter sentiment at a particular time. The video discusses a significant poll conducted by Selzer, which is noteworthy due to its timing after a presidential debate and its implications for the Kamla Harris campaign.

💡Kamla Harris

Kamla Harris is a central figure in the video, being a political candidate whose campaign and potential election outcomes are discussed. The poll results and their impact on her campaign are a major focus, illustrating how she is currently trailing in the polls but also showing potential for significant gains.

💡De Moine Register

The De Moine Register is mentioned as the organization that conducts the poll discussed in the video. It is an Iowa-based newspaper, and its polls, especially those conducted by Selzer, are highlighted for their accuracy and influence on the political landscape.

💡Selzer

Selzer is referred to as a legendary pollster with an A+ rating in the industry. Her polls are respected for their accuracy, particularly in Iowa, and are known for their exclusive focus on that state. The video emphasizes the significance of her poll results and how they might reflect the current political climate.

💡Iowa Caucus

The Iowa Caucus is an event where voters in Iowa meet to express their preferences for their party's presidential nominee. The video notes that Selzer's polls are conducted for this event and are released the night before, adding to the anticipation and excitement surrounding the caucus.

💡Accuracy

Accuracy in polling refers to how closely the poll results reflect the actual voting outcomes. The video emphasizes Selzer's reputation for accuracy, which lends weight to the poll's findings and their implications for the Kamla Harris campaign.

💡Post-Debate Sentiment

Post-debate sentiment refers to the public's opinion and reaction immediately following a political debate. The video discusses how the poll captures this sentiment, providing insight into how recent political events, such as debates, might be influencing voter preferences.

💡Donald Trump

Donald Trump is mentioned as a political figure leading in the Iowa polls with 47% of the vote, according to the Selzer poll. His lead is compared to his performance in the 2020 election, indicating a potential shift in voter sentiment.

💡RFK Jr

RFK Jr is noted as a candidate who, despite withdrawing from the race, still manages to capture a percentage of the vote in the poll. This highlights the complexity of voter preferences and the impact of various factors on polling results.

💡Election Landscape

The election landscape refers to the overall state of a political race, including the dynamics between candidates, voter sentiment, and potential outcomes. The video uses the poll results to analyze and predict shifts in this landscape, particularly focusing on the implications for the Kamla Harris campaign.

💡Electoral Votes

Electoral votes are the votes cast by the electors in the United States presidential election. The video discusses the potential impact of the poll results on the distribution of electoral votes, suggesting how shifts in voter preferences could influence the election outcome.

Highlights

Kamla Harris campaign discusses a significant poll that could be the best news they've received so far.

Kamla Harris is currently behind in the polls, but the Iowa poll is particularly noteworthy.

The poll is conducted by Selzer, a highly respected pollster known for her accuracy, particularly in Iowa.

Selzer's polls are highly respected because of her exclusive focus on Iowa and her remarkable history of accurate results.

The poll reveals Donald Trump leading in Iowa with 47% of the vote, followed by Kamla Harris with 43%.

The poll was conducted after the most recent presidential debate, capturing the immediate impact on voter preferences.

The results suggest a shifting dynamic in Iowa, with Trump's lead reduced by half compared to the previous election.

Kamla Harris's performance indicates she is significantly underperforming compared to Joe Biden's 2020 results.

The poll suggests that if the election were held tomorrow, Trump would win Iowa by a 4% margin.

The poll results are creating quite a stir due to the prestige of Selzer's polling.

The poll provides valuable insight into the current state of the race after a major debate.

Kamla Harris is currently leading by 2.8% in national polls.

The state's shifting political landscape and the accuracy of past polls make Iowa a focal point for understanding Harris's campaign trajectory.

Harris's rise in Iowa indicates a new option that resonates with voters across the country.

If Harris can outperform Biden's 2020 margins by 4% across the entire country, it would signify a substantial shift in voter preferences.

The poll suggests a potential landslide victory if these trends continue.

The current forecast shows a 319 to 219 electoral map in favor of Harris.

The video aims to provide a detailed analysis of the poll results and their implications for the upcoming election.

Transcripts

hey everyone welcome back to the channel

today we're discussing what might be the

most significant poll of the month for

the kamla Harris campaign seriously this

could be the best news they've received

so far although kamla Harris is

currently behind in the polls this isn't

just any Iowa poll it's particularly

noteworthy so stay tuned as we break

down why this poll is such a big deal

and what it could mean for her campaign

moving forward this poll is from the De

Moine register condu Ed by the legendary

and Selzer who is renowned in the

polling industry with an A+ rating

Selzer is regarded as one of the best

pollsters in the nation she has an

exceptional track record for accuracy

particularly in Iowa which is her

specialty and seler's polls are highly

respected because she exclusively

focuses on Iowa and has a remarkable

history of getting results spot on she

conducts polls for the Iowa caucus and

releases them the night before the

caucus which adds to the excitement and

anticipation around her findings seler's

polling is rarely seen because it is

both costly and highly accurate which is

why it Garners so much attention when

she does release results her ability to

consistently deliver precise predictions

has established her reputation as a top

tier pollster this particular poll is

significant not only because of the

credibility of the pollster but also due

to its timing and the context it

provides the latest poll conducted by

Selzer Reve reveal some noteworthy

insights into the current political

landscape according to this poll Donald

Trump is leading in Iowa with 47% of the

vote kamla Harris follows with 43% and

RFK Jr despite his withdrawal from the

race still manages to capture 6% of the

vote this data is crucial as it reflects

the post- debate sentiment among voters

giving a snapshot of how recent

political events might be influencing

public opinion one key point to consider

is that this poll was conducted after

the most recent presidential debate this

timing is significant because it

captures the immediate impact of the

debate on voter preferences the results

are creating quite a stir which is

expected given The Prestige of szer

polling the interactions and discussions

around this poll are skyrocketing

indicating that people are paying close

attention to its findings Donald Trump's

lead of 4% in Iowa is particularly

noteworthy in the 2020 election

Trump won Iowa by an 8% margin the fact

that his current lead has shrunk by half

compared to the previous election is a

critical detail this suggests a shifting

dynamic in the state that could have

implications for the broader election

landscape kamla Harris's performance in

this poll is also striking she is not

merely underperforming compared to Joe

Biden's 2020 results she is

significantly falling short Biden won

Iowa by a substantial margin in 2020 and

Harris's current numbers are not just

slightly below his they are 4 percentage

points lower this is a substantial Gap

and indicates that she is not achieving

the level of support that Biden did in

the last election the implications of

these findings are considerable if the

election were held tomorrow this poll

suggests that Trump would win Iowa by a

4% margin this is a notable reduction

from his 2020 performance but it still

represents a lead for the kamla Harris

campaign this this data is a clear

signal that they need to address the

factors contributing to her

underperformance in Iowa in summary this

poll from and Selzer highlights a

significant moment in the political

landscape the fact that Selzer a

pollster known for her accuracy and

expertise is reporting a 4% lead for

Trump in Iowa with Harris trailing and

RFK Jr still garnering a notable

percentage adds weight to the analysis

the results are especially relevant

considering the timing coming after a

major debate and provide valuable

insight into the current state of the

race this poll underscores the

challenges facing the comma Harris

campaign and signals potential shifts in

voter sentiment that could influence the

upcoming election I truly believe kamla

haris has the potential to win

decisively and recent pollings suggests

this could indeed be the case we'll

cover all the details in this in video

but first let's contextualize the

numbers in the 2020 election Donald

Trump won Iowa by a margin of

8.2% however he's now performing 4%

worse in the state compared to his 2020

results this indicates a notable shift

towards the left in Iowa which could be

a significant factor for the upcoming

election to give you more context let's

look back at the 2020 Iowa polling

landscape one Democratic pollster had

Joe Biden leading by just one point

among the various polls conducted the De

Moine registers and szer poll stood out

for its accuracy they predicted Trump

would win by seven points just to point

off the actual 8.2% margin this poll was

notably close to the final results

reflecting a reliable trend for the 2024

Republican Iowa caucus in seler's poll

was also quite accurate though there

were minor discrepancies regarding

candidates like Nikki Haley and Ronda

santis their predictions were generally

on point demonstrating their strong

track record in Iowa polling in 2022

they accurately projected Chuck

grassley's win underscoring their

credibility despite kamla Harris's

recent surge in National polls where she

was ahead by 0.2% today Iowa's Dynamics

remain critical the state's shifting

political landscape and the accuracy of

past polls make it a focal point for

understanding the potential trajectory

of Harris's campaign we'll delve deeper

into what these Trends mean for the

upcoming election and how they could

influence the overall race stay tuned as

we explore these insights further kamla

Harris is currently leading by

2.8% marking a notable gain in National

polls her increased standing across the

country and in key Battleground States

is clear but her progress in Iowa is

especially striking initially I didn't

expect her to make significant gains in

Iowa compared to Joe Biden Biden being a

moderate and an older white male had a

certain appeal to rural voters that

Harris as a more Progressive and

historically significant

African-American woman might not match

in these areas at the start of the race

I debated whether to classify Iowa as a

safe Republican state or one where Trump

would be likely to win by a significant

margin around 15 points given that

context kamla Harris being only four

points behind demonstrates a remarkable

shift this isn't just about Regional

variations it highlights a broader

National Trend Harris's rise is

indicative of a new option that

resonates with voters across the country

in the 2020 election Trump won Iowa by

8.2% comparing this to the current

scenario where Harris is Just 4 Points

behind it underscores a significant

change to further illustrate this

consider the poll from June 17th shortly

after a debate where Trump was leading

Biden by a substantial 18 points in Iowa

now now with Harris as the Democratic

nominee Trump's lead has been reduced to

just four points this dramatic shift in

the poll results reflects a considerable

turnaround in the race this development

raises an intriguing question could

kamla Harris replicate this trend

Nationwide if she can outperform Biden's

2020 margins by 4% across the entire

country it would signify a substantial

shift in voter preferences it's

noteworthy that while Iowa's movement to

the left was unex expected other states

like Michigan and Pennsylvania might

Trend even more significantly towards

the left with Harris as the nominee the

fact that Iowa is moving 4% to the left

with Harris a candidate who initially

seemed less likely to perform well in

rural States suggest a broader Trend

that could impact the overall election

landscape if Harris can achieve similar

gains in other states it could reshape

the electoral map and poses serious

challenge to Republican strongholds this

evolving Dynamic High ites the potential

for a more competitive race in the

coming election how would this shift

look on the national electoral map to

assess the impact we consider not just

the seven key Battleground States but

also include places like Iowa Ohio Texas

and Florida which were less competitive

until this recent surprising poll

emerged let's explore the scenario where

every state shifts 4% to the left based

on current results for instance in

Michigan where Biden won by 2.8% % a 4%

shift would extend his margin to 6.8%

turning it into a likely Democratic

State Nevada would see a similar

transformation becoming a likely

Democratic State as well Pennsylvania a

crucial state which Biden won by just

1.2% would see a 4% shift turning it

into a likely Harris Victory with a 5.2%

margin a significant change Wisconsin

which Biden won by

0.6% and Georgia where he won by

0.2% would both see margins increasing

to 4.6% and

4.2% respectively making them lean

Democratic Arizona where Biden won by

0.3% would shift to a 4.3% margin also

leaning Democratic North Carolina which

Trump won by

1.3% would shift 4% to the left giving

Harris a three-point lead making it a

lean Democratic state with these shifts

Harris would already secure 319

electoral votes surpassing the necessary

majority examining more traditionally

Republican states Florida which Trump

won by

3.4% would shift to a Harris win by

0.6% a tilt margin although Harris is

already winning the election this 30

electoral vote gain is significant Texas

where Trump won by

5.6% would narrow to a 1.6% margin for

Harris

turning it into a lean Democratic State

this would force the Trump campaign to

defend a state previously considered

secure finally Iowa and Ohio which Trump

won by substantial margins would both

shift to a fourpoint margin in favor of

Harris reflecting the broader shift

across the electoral map we're seeing a

shift where two more states are moving

from lean Republican to either likely or

safe Democratic this is exactly the

opposite of what Republicans would hope

for additionally States like Virginia

Minnesota New Mexico and New Hampshire

traditionally Democratic and not core

Battlegrounds are becoming nearly safe

for Democrats these states which require

some effort but aren't major

Battlegrounds are now solidifying for

the Democrats Alaska is also moving to

the likely Democratic column several

other states are shifting to the likely

Democratic category including South

Carolina Indiana Missouri Kansas Montana

and Nebraska's First District this broad

shift suggests a potential Landslide

Victory if these Trends continue given

the recent debate and the positive data

from Selzer Iowa poll I genuinely

believe kamla Harris could win by a

significant margin in 2024 this belief

is based on the current trends and

polling data even though Harris isn't

projected to win Florida my prediction

is that Harris will secure every state

that Biden won in 2020 and potentially

add North Carolina to her list of

Victories to sum up my current forecast

shows a 319 to 219 electoral map in

favor of Harris this projection reflects

a substantial shift in the Electoral

landscape due to the latest poll results

this is a major development and it

changes the Dynamics of the race

considerably thank you for watching this

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