7 BUSTS You’ll Regret Drafting Early in 2024 Fantasy Football

Summary

In this video, the host discusses the strategy of avoiding potential busts in the early rounds of fantasy football drafts. He identifies seven players, including Saquon Barkley and Mike Evans, who he believes are overpriced and carry high bust potential. Using consensus rankings and data analysis, the host provides detailed reasoning for each player, suggesting alternatives who offer better value in the draft. The goal is to help viewers make informed decisions to build a competitive fantasy football team.

Takeaways

• 🏈 The early rounds of fantasy football drafts are compared to the game Battleship, where players aim to pick top performers while avoiding potential busts.
• 👟 Saquon Barkley is considered a risky first-round pick due to his injury history and the perception that he may not return to his rookie form.
• 📉 There's skepticism around drafting Mike Evans highly because of the potential decline in the Tampa Bay offense and his age.
• 🚫 The script advises against drafting certain players early, like Saquon Barkley and Michael Pittman Jr., due to their perceived lack of upside compared to other options.
• 🤔 The discussion highlights the importance of considering a player's situation, such as team, offensive line, and role within the offense, when drafting.
• 📊 Statistical analysis, including tackle avoidance percentage and correlation of performance year-over-year, is used to evaluate player potential.
• 🔝 The script suggests that some players are being overdrafted in home leagues, which could lead to regret if they don't meet expectations.
• 💰 There's an emphasis on value and the idea that certain players are being selected too early based on name recognition rather than current performance.
• 🏟️ The change in team or offensive scheme is a significant factor, with examples given of how it could affect a player's production, such as with Keenan Allen.
• ⚖️ The script uses consensus rankings from various sources to identify players who might be overvalued or undervalued in the fantasy football community.

Q & A

What is the main topic of the video script?

The main topic of the video script is identifying players in fantasy football who have high bust potential and are overpriced, particularly those who should be avoided in the early rounds of fantasy drafts.

Who are the first two players mentioned as potential busts in the early rounds of fantasy football drafts?

The first two players mentioned as potential busts are Saquon Barkley and Mike Evans.

Why does the speaker believe Saquon Barkley might be a bust in the first round of fantasy drafts?

The speaker believes Saquon Barkley might be a bust because he hasn't performed at a high level since his rookie year, and he has been dealing with injuries and an aging factor typical for running backs. Additionally, his tackle avoidance percentage is low, and there are other running backs with higher upside available later in the draft.

What is the 'Running Back Upside Theory' mentioned in the script?

The 'Running Back Upside Theory' refers to the idea that when drafting a running back early, they should have the potential to be an rb1 overall and provide a high point return on investment, considering the fragility and high bust rate of running backs.

What concerns does the speaker have about drafting Mike Evans in the second round?

The speaker has concerns about drafting Mike Evans in the second round due to his age, the potential regression in his performance, the bottom 10 offense he plays in, and the uncertainty around the quarterback play with Baker Mayfield.

What is the significance of the 'year-over-year correlation of running backs changing teams' mentioned in the script?

The 'year-over-year correlation of running backs changing teams' signifies that running backs' point production, rush attempts, routes, and targets can be less consistent when they move to a new team, which could affect their fantasy football value.

Why does the speaker prefer other tight ends over Sam Laporta in the early rounds?

The speaker prefers other tight ends over Sam Laporta because they can be drafted later and offer similar value without the premium pick cost. The speaker also believes that touchdowns are less predictable and 'sticky' stats compared to receptions and yards, which Laporta's value seems to rely heavily on.

What are the concerns about drafting Brandon Aiyuk in the early rounds mentioned in the script?

The concerns about drafting Brandon Aiyuk include his holdout situation, the potential for a slow start due to lack of practice, and the uncertainty of his role and efficiency in a new offensive system with the 49ers.

Why does the speaker consider Michael Pittman Jr. overvalued in fantasy drafts?

The speaker considers Michael Pittman Jr. overvalued because his production heavily relied on plays with Anthony Richardson, and with a new quarterback and potential changes in the offensive scheme, his target volume and efficiency may decrease. Additionally, the speaker believes there are better values available later in the draft.

What are the reasons for the speaker's hesitance to draft Alvin Kamara in the early rounds?

The speaker is hesitant to draft Alvin Kamara because of his declining tackle avoidance rate, which may indicate a decline in performance. Additionally, the team's projected scoring offense is not high, and there are other backs who may offer better value at a similar draft position.

What are the concerns about drafting Keenan Allen in the early rounds as outlined in the script?

The concerns about drafting Keenan Allen include his age and potential decline in performance, his change in teams which could affect his chemistry with a new quarterback, and the possibility of him being utilized in a less productive role in the new offensive scheme.

Outlines

00:00

🏈 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Avoiding Early Round Busts

The speaker begins by likening the early rounds of fantasy football drafts to the game Battleship, emphasizing the importance of avoiding players who might not perform as expected. They introduce the concept of 'bust potential' and highlight seven players they believe could disappoint if drafted in the top six rounds. The speaker discusses their personal experience with drafting, noting they have not chosen these players in their high-stakes drafts. They also mention the creation of a consensus ranking tool combining ESPN, Sleeper, and Yahoo rankings to help in the draft process. The first player analyzed is Saquon Barkley, with the speaker questioning his value in the first round due to concerns over his performance post-injury, his age, and the general fragility of running backs.

05:02

📉 Saquon Barkley's Declining Performance and Offensive Line Impact

The paragraph delves deeper into the reasons why Saquon Barkley might not be a wise first-round pick. It discusses his tackle avoidance percentage, which has been low even when considering the poor performance of his offensive line. The speaker refutes the idea that a bad offensive line should excuse Barkley's poor performance by showing that his tackle avoidance rate is still low compared to other running backs. They also mention that despite moving to a team with a potentially better offensive line and scoring environment, Barkley's past performance and the general decline in running back careers post-injury make him a risky choice. The comparison with other running backs like Jonathan Taylor, who does not have the same injury history or is at a different stage in his career, further supports this view.

10:03

📊 Analyzing Mike Evans' Value and Team Offensive Projections

The focus shifts to wide receiver Mike Evans, questioning his worth as a late second-round pick. The speaker cites Vegas projections placing the Tampa Bay offense near the bottom and discusses the potential regression of Evans' performance based on his age and the team's offensive capabilities. They compare Evans to other receivers like Cooper Kupp, Malik Willis, and Jaylen Waddle, suggesting that Evans might not offer as much value as these players. The paragraph also touches on the importance of consistent offensive production and how changes in a player's situation, such as a new team or quarterback, can affect their fantasy football value.

15:04

🔍 Evaluating Brandon Aiyuk's Talent and Team's Passing Offense

The speaker expresses concerns about drafting Brandon Aiyuk early, despite acknowledging his talent. They discuss Aiyuk's efficiency numbers from the previous season and the challenges he might face due to the 49ers' low pass attempt rates and a potential holdout. The paragraph also considers the possibility of Aiyuk being traded, which could affect his quarterback situation and, by extension, his fantasy value. The speaker suggests that there are other receivers with more favorable situations and less uncertainty who could be better draft choices.

20:06

🚫 Michael Pittman's Overvalued ADP and Team's Red Zone Strategy

Michael Pittman is discussed as a player whose average draft position (ADP) does not match his projected performance. The speaker points out that Pittman's value is overestimated, especially considering the Colts' preference for running the ball in the red zone and the potential for lower passing targets due to the playing style of quarterback Anthony Richardson. They also mention that Pittman's average depth of target (aDOT) is lower than what Richardson prefers, suggesting a mismatch in play styles. The speaker recommends other receivers who might offer better value in the draft.

25:07

🏃 Alvin Kamara's Dead Zone Running Back Status and Workload Concerns

Alvin Kamara is identified as a 'dead zone' running back, meaning his draft position is too high for the value he's likely to provide. The speaker cites Kamara's declining tackle avoidance rate and the potential for a reduced workload due to the presence of other running backs on the team and the Saints' scoring offense projection. They argue that Kamara's draft position in the fourth round is too rich and that there are better options available, such as Kenneth Walker or James Conner, who might offer similar value at a lower draft cost.

📉 Keenan Allen's Changing Role and Potential Decline

The final player discussed is Keenan Allen, whose career-year performance is attributed to the offensive system rather than a significant improvement in his play. The speaker expresses concerns about Allen's ability to maintain his performance due to his age, injury history, and the potential for a reduced role in a new offensive system. They also mention the risk of Allen falling into a similar pattern seen with other veterans who change teams later in their careers and fail to meet expectations. The speaker suggests that there are other receivers, like Rome Odunze, who might offer better value and have a higher ceiling for the latter part of the season.

Keywords

💡Fantasy Football Draft

A fantasy football draft is a process in which participants in a fantasy football league select real-life football players to be on their fantasy team. In the video, the draft is likened to a game of Battleship, emphasizing the strategy and risk involved in picking players who may or may not perform well in the upcoming season. The script discusses avoiding 'busts' or players who are overvalued and likely to underperform.

💡Bust Potential

Bust potential refers to the likelihood that a player drafted will not meet expectations and negatively impact the fantasy team's performance. The video aims to identify players with high bust potential, using examples such as Saquon Barkley, who despite past performance, is considered a risky pick due to various factors like injury history and team dynamics.

💡Running Back Upside Theory

This concept, attributed to Pat Carine, suggests that early picks of running backs in fantasy drafts should have the potential to be exceptional performers, given the high risk associated with their position. The script discusses this in relation to choosing running backs like Saquon Barkley, questioning whether he still possesses the upside to be a top performer.

💡Tackle Avoidance Percentage

Tackle avoidance percentage is a statistic that measures a player's ability to evade tackles. In the script, it's used to analyze Saquon Barkley's performance, indicating that despite a poor offensive line, his tackle avoidance rate was still low, suggesting a decline in his ability to make plays.

💡Offensive Line

The offensive line in American football consists of the players who are responsible for blocking, protecting the quarterback, and creating holes for running plays. The script discusses how a poor offensive line can affect a running back's performance, using it as one of the factors in evaluating Saquon Barkley's potential.

💡Wide Receiver

A wide receiver is a position in American football who specializes in catching passes. The video discusses the potential of wide receivers like Mike Evans, considering factors like their team's offensive strategy, quarterback performance, and individual statistics to determine their value in fantasy football.

💡PPR Points

PPR stands for Points Per Reception, a scoring system used in fantasy football where players receive one point for each catch they make. The script mentions PPR points in the context of evaluating wide receivers like Mike Evans, where the number of receptions is a significant factor in their fantasy value.

💡Consensus Rankings

Consensus rankings in fantasy football are an aggregate of expert rankings from various sources to provide a general guide on player values. The video uses consensus rankings to identify players who are potentially overrated or undervalued, such as Michael Pittman, whose ranking varies significantly across platforms.

💡Efficiency Metrics

Efficiency metrics in the context of the video refer to statistics like yards per route run, which measure a player's productivity relative to the opportunities they receive. The script uses efficiency metrics to evaluate players like Brandon Aiyuk, discussing whether his past performance can be sustained.

💡Red Zone Targets

Red Zone targets are passes thrown to a player within the 20-yard line of the opposition's end zone, often leading to scoring opportunities. The video discusses the importance of Red Zone targets for tight ends like Dalton Schultz, as it significantly impacts their potential for scoring touchdowns and fantasy points.

💡Dead Zone Running Back

A 'Dead Zone Running Back' refers to a player who is drafted in the middle rounds with the expectation of high performance but is likely to underperform due to various factors like team offense or competition for touches. The script labels Alvin Kamara as such, suggesting that his draft position is too high given the projected decline in his performance.

Highlights

Early rounds of fantasy football drafts are compared to the game Battleship, emphasizing the importance of avoiding busts.

Seven players with high bust potential in the top six rounds of fantasy drafts are identified.

Saquon Barkley is considered overpriced and not justifiable in the first round of drafts.

Barkley's tackle avoidance percentage is among the lowest in the NFL, indicating a decline in talent.

Mike Evans is labeled a brutal pick, especially with better wide receiver options available later.

Evans' production is tied to the performance of the Tampa Bay offense, which is not highly projected.

Sam Lora is not worth the premium pick in the third round compared to other available tight ends.

Lora's touchdown production may not be repeatable, and other tight ends offer better value.

Brandon Aiyuk's talent is acknowledged, but concerns over his holdout and efficiency make him a risky pick.

Aiyuk's efficiency was exceptional in the previous season, but sustaining it is uncertain due to his holdout.

Michael Pittman Jr. is overvalued in home league drafts, with a preference for other wide receivers at his ADP.

Pittman's role in the Colts' offense may not align with his skill set, leading to a potential decline in production.

Alvin Kamara's declining tackle avoidance rate and his team's low projected scoring make him a risky fourth-round pick.

Keenan Allen's career year is attributed to scheme fit rather than a resurgence in skill, signaling potential regression.

Allen's role in the Rams' offense is uncertain, and there are concerns about his age and potential decline.

Transcripts

what's going on man welcome back to the

basement rron and the more I think about

it the more the early rounds of your

fantasy football drafts are like a game

of Battleship of course you're trying to

draft next year's CD lamb Christian

mcaffrey and get the studs up top but

you're also trying to avoid those

landmines and huge bust that can just

completely derail your fantasy football

team so today we're going to try our

best to look into a crystal ball and

identify the seven players you'll regret

drafting inside of the top six rounds of

your fantasy draft these are guys that I

think have huge bust potential are over

priced and I have not drafted them so

far through the 10 or so high stakes

teams that we've drafted on stream as

always if you enjoy this video we're

almost at 50,000 subscribers which feels

crazy to say so make sure you subscribe

leave a like if you enjoy let's

[Music]

goze

my now first up we have saquin Barkley

now for honestly because we have like a

week left of draft prep everybody has

their home leagues either today tomorrow

this week next weekend whatever we're

going to start using this for the

players I am working behind the scenes

with a guy who knows how to do API and

we'll eventually maybe have like a a a a

small web page you guys can use to kind

of see the consensus rankings but this

is just ESPN default rankings sleeper

default rankings Yahoo default rankings

which is their xrank all put together

for consensus into a consensus pick so

our first player here is saquin Barkley

he is the consensus 112 he's going as

the rb5 by consensus and then you can

see individually ESPN he's going 11th

sleeper 11th Yahoo 14th

so the deal was saquin I can't justify

taking him anywhere in the first round

even the early second feels Rich I'm

taking AJ Brown over him I'm taking

Garrett Wilson I'm taking pukaa and on

the running back side of things as well

I'm taking Jonathan Taylor I'm taking

jir Gibbs Ken Williams and Devon Anan

all over saquin Barkley when we take

these running backs early we talk about

it all the time with the legendary

running back upside Theory as laid out

by Pat carine a few years ago if we're

taking a running back early they are

very fragile they bust at a high rate

last year we had mcaffry up top but then

you also had Austin Eckler beison

Robinson Tony Pard uh Nick chub a lot of

guys drafted highly didn't pan out so if

I take one of these guys early and we

know how fragile they are and how much

these running backs bust I need the

upside case scenario of hitting like 20

plus points for or being the rb1 overall

and I just don't see how sequin gets

there he hasn't hit 20 plus points per

game since he was a rookie and this

isn't the same sequin that was the

prince who was promised best running

back Prospect I've ever seen I sometimes

even go back and watch Pence state

saquon Barkley highlights he was a

monster then rookie year was a monster

ever since he tore his ACL he's getting

older as as a running back as well we

just don't see very long careers at the

running back position right you can

think back to Todd Gurley and Levan Bell

and all the Running Backs from my

childhood outside of of like the true

Hall of Fame Blue Chip you know Adrien

Peterson types and I guess sort of

leanian Tomlinson these guys fall off a

cliff and for seon I'm not saying that

he's falling off a cliff just yet but

he's not that same guy like I know he

holds a lot of name value as saquin but

this is a good string of tweets here

from Jacob Gibbs we use his stuff all

the time make sure you follow him on

Twitter atj

gibbs2 and here from 2021 to 2023 the

last three years of data saquin is sixth

worst in his tackle avoidance percentage

and it's a bad list to be a part of man

we're talking Zeke Elliott forette

latavius Murray Joe Mixon Jamal Williams

Rashad white AJ Dylan Antonio Gibson

some of the least efficient runners in

the NFL now everybody was in his

comments saying what you guys are about

to say as well well the offensive line

sucks he was probably getting hit before

or at the line of scrimmage he then

dispelled that myth where uh initial

contact met at or behind the line of

scrimmage on average was 20% and then

average avoided tackle rate beyond the

line of scrimmage 17.5% so you actually

by having a bad offensive line the

running back of course has to now evade

that tackler more often which actually

leads to higher avoided tackle rates

saquon's bad offensive line should have

helped him it did not his avoided tackle

rate has actually still been super super

low and then if we look at as well well

maybe he was going up against heavy

boxes on a bad Giants team we look here

he dispelled this myth as well when you

look at runs against light boxes over

the last three years I believe he's 39th

in avoided tackle rate 41st in rushing

EPA per snap 45th in rushing success

rate among 46 qualifiers so all I'm

saying is that I don't think that he's

the talent that He once was and taking

him in the first round at the 112 or 111

like he is on ESPN is a really thin bet

and then you add on top of that I I know

that it seen as a positive that he's not

on the Giants anymore but D McFarland

laid it out here you look at the

year-over-year correlation of running

backs changing teams we usually want

them to stay on the same team their PPR

points their Rush attempts routes

targets are all much less sticky when

they move to new situation and we also

have a scenario here on the Eagles where

yes the offense will be better it'll be

the best offensive line he's had it'll

be the best scoring environment he's had

in his career but this is also a team

that doesn't really feature a running

back Jaylen Herz has never had a running

back finish inside of the top 15 in

points per game now of course we're

talking my sanders we're talking DeAndre

Swift but I just showed you saquin the

name value is there I 100% get it but he

is not by and large a massive upgrade

over those players and we're going to

have Jaylen Herz squeezing for

receptions he's not going to check it

down as often as a guy like Eli Manning

when seol was a rookie and had that

massive year and then the goal line

rushers are going to be split so he's

definitely going to have more touchdown

upside than he had in New

York but it's still going to be capped

at a ceiling now I get all the time

wasn't Jonathan Taylor dealing with the

same stuff with uh Richardson yes but I

would rather bet on the talent of

Jonathan Taylor Who's 25 years old no

torn ACL history is still on the same

team has juice it's just not the same

bet to me because he's not on the the

set the you know the back nine of his

career yet JT is still firmly in his

prime where that's not really the case

with saquin so again I would prefer a

bunch of other running backs in the

early second I'd prefer a bunch of

receivers at that one-w turn and I think

saquin is going to be a pick that people

end up regretting especially you know in

these home leagues where he's going 111

110 I've seen him go as high as 1 n 109

in some places uh and I just can't get

there now I do get a lot of comments on

these do not draft videos of it's a lot

of running backs you guys know I do

enjoy my wide receivers I take wide

receivers early and often but I wanted

to shine some light on some receivers

here because honestly the way that I

started this outline for this video

was not even early round busts but

really more so players I haven't drafted

yet in my high stakes draft that we

actually stream all the time we I think

we've streamed la like four of the last

four nights High Stak straps we stream

every night until kickoff make sure you

check those out but I was looking

through it like guys I haven't drafted

yet and then I also don't think I'll

probably end up with any of them and

Mike Evans fits that build now

Mike Evans isn't necessarily like an

awful pick but I think that he is a

pretty brutal pick especially at that

Yahoo rank of pick 20 and he's also in

your home League he's just a a bigname

player so he's going to go inherently

earlier and I think at the the back half

of the second round like 212 211 210 and

even in the early third when in these

consensus rankings you have to take him

over Cooper cup over Malik neighbors

over Jaylen wadle I just can't do it

even guys like DJ Moore and DK meaf I

would take over Mike Evans and here's

why when we look at Mike Evans he's

on I I'm hesitant to call it a bad

offense but it's a bottom 10 or so

offense in terms of Vegas projections as

highlighted by Connor Allen here he

looked through all the Vegas lines

before the season and found which teams

are projected to score the most points

Tampa Bay is 22nd on top of that you

have Dave Canalis leaving with this

tweet from Ryan Heath every single spot

that Canalis has come to the quarterback

play has improved if Baker Mayfield goes

back in terms of adjusted net yard yards

per attempt with just passing efficiency

if he goes back to that 483 2022 number

this whole offense is going to really

struggle and Mike Evans isn't going to

be as good as he was last year where he

was a wide receiver 10 finisher in terms

of points per game and you drafted him

in the sixth round which was massive

right that was a huge win and somebody

we were drafting as well on this channel

but

now we're drafting that in the late

second and last year was actually kind

of an outlier for Mike Evans over his

last five seasons he had a really really

strong year but I would bet against him

beating it we can see Over The Last 5

Years 13 touchdowns was up to par with

2021 and 2020 what happens if that goes

back down to 6 to8 touchdowns his

targets per around 23.5% was a 5year

high what if that comes down now with

the addition of Jaylen McMillan a new

offenseive coordinator Chris God now

going back full-time into the slot yards

PR run 2.32 again a five-year High

coming off of a baker Mayfield career

year if Baker Mayfield's efficiency dips

so does Mike Evans and then PFF grade

83.2 His Highest since

2019 we're talking about a 31-year-old

wide receiver you can kind of expect a

lot of these to regress back to the mean

and if we're talking like under two

yards per out run under 20% targets per

out running like six to eight touchdowns

he can still get I'm not saying that

he's not going to get his 10,00 yard

season he will I mean that's just what

Mike Evans does and I'm not going to bet

against that but he can hit a thousand

receiving yards and be like a backend

wide receiver to instead of that wide

receiver 10 and points per game he was

last year and what you're drafting him

at at the late second so I would just

rather pass you know you can take other

good receivers later you're going to get

you know Malik Neighbors in the fourth

you're going to get Stefan Diggs in the

fourth in these home leagues you're

going to get Wadd cup in the third

you're going to get even in the fifth

tank Del T Higgins R Rashi rice so I

would just rather shy away from Mike

Evans if there's a guy like Devon Anan

on the board or nicoo Collins that's the

direction I'm going and just to put a

cherry on top again I'm not calling for

the fall off here but he can absolutely

get like if he ends up with like a th000

yards and seven touchdowns that's a loss

in the second rounder at the two3 turn

this is where he's at in terms of Ryan

Heath's wide receiver performance by

career year year 11 at this point this

when we start to see a little bit more

of a dip again I think that he can be

okay but wide receiver 13 uh I think

he's more likely to end up as like wide

receiver 23 than he is wide receiver 13

now moving on from that you know we're

putting we're putting our neck on the

line here right these are early picks

for a reason but we're going to again

try and look into a crystal ball and

talk to the players that might Bust or

underperform in their ADP and Sam

leaport is one of them now I have no

issue with Sam L pora the player I think

he's a good player it's really for me

more that you can get Trey McBride in

the fifth round and you can get D con

Kade in the fifth

round and it feels Rich to have to take

leaport at 302 with those guys available

later when we look at Underdog's

projections they their pick them lines

where they have higher or lowers you can

see here with Sam loraa he's projected

for 12.6 PPR points per game right 81.5

receptions 875 and a half receiving

yards 7 and a half receiving touchdowns

and that's you know a sizable advantage

over McBride Andrews cancade uh Pitts KD

right I I included like the top seven or

so tight ends here and you can see their

consensus rank on the end here's the

thing when we talk about just receptions

and yards though and we take out the

touchdowns right points per game with no

touchdowns samor at 9.9 Trey McBride at

9.4 dong kid at 9.3 so you're paying two

rounds extra really just for touchdowns

and when we look at correlation this is

a really cool stickiness chart from Ryan

Heath yards have a 71 correlation

year-over-year targets 73 whereas

touchdowns are just. 52 they're all over

the place right we just saw that Mike

Evans chart where sometimes he'll score

13 sometimes he'll score six sometimes

he'll score eight and you're really just

paying a premium on the Porta for those

7.5 receiving touchdowns and who's to

say even though canate is a 5.5

projection McBride is a 4.5 projection

who's to say that they can't outscore

leaport in terms of touchdowns it

wouldn't be all that crazy for that to

happen right especially being concade in

a really good offense that's going to

score touchdowns it just feels like

you're paying a premium I think you know

if you could get aort in the fourth

versus McBride In The Fifth and Canad in

the fifth and find one round differences

in anything but 302 is a premium pick

we're talking 254th ranked on sleeper I

haven't drafted Lea yet and it's just

because I see those top five tight ends

Kelsey leapa McBride Andrews and Cade

almost all in the same tier to the point

where I don't really want to pay extra

for lorta and pay that premium and

you're kind of looking at a 2v2 here

of you take leor in the third and then

you come back around later and you

probably take like you know Z flowers in

the fifth so you can either have leapor

and Z flowers or you can take like

Cooper cup or niik Collins in the third

and then come back around in the fifth

and take Trey McBride or King Kade I

like the trade-off of the the TR McBride

concade and just get cup or niik Collins

to me it's just a bigger tier gap

between the receivers there in terms of

round three versus round five so again

it's not even necessarily like Sam laor

the player I think is bad but we could

see some regression where last year a

lot of his production came off of like

10 plus touchdowns he didn't even hit

10,00 receiving yards which is something

that Kyle pittz has done in the past as

a rookie we'll see he could definitely

make take a step forward here Alan R st

Brown is still in this offense as well

uh I just don't think that he's he's

worth taking two rounds ahead of the

other tight ends we have a a big crop of

good tight end Targets this season so

I'm a little bit less likely to take Sam

lorta at the two3 turn then we have

Brandon auk man Brandon iuk and I think

it's because these home League sites

right he's at the consensus 303 as the

wide receiver 14 these consensus play uh

places right ESPN actually has him

ranked just fine at 36 but sleeper has

him 26 and Yahoo has him

24th that feels like a lot right that

feels like a lot we're talking about on

sleeper I would have him you know he's

ranked 26th I would have him behind

Devonte Smith at this point in time and

here's

why he is somebody who is of course Uber

Uber talented right we have this tweet

from Jacob Gibbs in terms of players

with over 300 routes and over three

yards per rout run he is one of the

youngest players to ever do it second

youngest after Nico Collins in a list

with just Julio Jones Cooper cup Tyreek

Hill that is rare air that means he's a

very very talented receiver and last

year we saw as well his efficiency

numbers were crazy expected points for

game at 10.5 he ended up being the wide

receiver 41 in expected points per game

this is just based off your targets your

Red Zone targets your ad do and he

outproduced that by 5.2 so he was the

wide receiver 41 in usage the wide

receiver 15 in points per game and I say

this to say he's a very talented

receiver but you're threading such a

such a fine needle he hit one of the

best efficiency seasons of all time

right three plus yards per out run five

plus F per game and even still he was

just the wide receiv receiver 15 in

points per game that was maxed out

efficiency wide receiver 15 in points

per game consentes wide receiver 14 and

the biggest concern I have is that

before the hold out stuff I was open to

making that bet and saying you know what

he's just that good he'll have that

efficiency again he'll be a top 15 wide

receiver again I have a hard time you

know again three plus yards per out run

just a list of niik Collins Julio Jones

Cooper cup Tyreek Hill you have to be on

your game to hit a three plus yards per

out run season and that's why he needs

to hit wide receiver 15 numbers in this

offense and if you're holding out and

you're taking time away from football I

just don't expect him to just get right

back on the field and carry that same

efficiency it might start slow you know

you have sort of established connections

with Debo and KD and some of you might

say well what about the volume just

going up well you still have Debo there

you still have KD there you still have

mcaffrey there and this is a team over

the last three seasons that has been

32nd 26th and 29th in pass attempts this

is not a team that's going to pass the

ball they're a low volume passing

offense they still have a ton of weapons

you would need an injury for his volume

to go up and then we also have these

reports now apparently the 49ers are

still working on a deal with auk Niners

Insider says that the team has had talks

with the commanders and Steelers and

don't expect him in the team huddle in

week one now our week one status is up

in the air he's taking time off from

football to the point where I don't know

that he's going to be able to sustain

the efficiency he had last year and then

we also have the idea that he could go

to the commanders and have a worse

quarterback or he go to the Steelers and

have a worse quarterback so I've moved

him down to the bottom of that tier

where you have you know Devonte Smith DK

meaf DJ Moore uh all of those guys I've

just moved him to the back I'm not

taking him until like the very very late

third or early fourth it's just too much

is up in the air and it's too thin of

like again you need 99.9 percentile

efficiency from a player that could

potentially start slow and hasn't been

in practice or you know getting game

reps in so I just think it's a tough bet

to make even though I do like the talent

and before this hold out stuff was very

much fine drafting in the third round

then we have Michael Pitman and we we

honestly shout out Michael Pitman in

like every single one of these do not

draft videos but

his price is just ridiculous man 306 by

consensus he's going as the 20th ranked

player on ESPN as the wide receiver 10

on ESPN uh pick 40 on sleeper pick 35 on

Yahoo and this is how you know that his

price is out of whack is on Underdog

where it's wide receiver heavy he's

going in the fourth round on Underdog

he's going at the 306 by consensus he's

going in the second round of ESPN he's

going in the third round of Yahoo again

fourth round on Underdog which is best

ball three wide receivers One Flex

usually is pretty wide receiver heavy

now I will say shout out to Underdog

fantasy make sure you check them out use

promo code Ron when you sign up and

they'll match your first deposit up to

$1,000 we now have like a cool look at

this thing go we have a cool animated uh

promo code thing here but you can find

the link in the description the comment

section down below and you can hop into

these lobbies and kind of just get a

feel for what these drafts look like uh

and you can kind of see even if it's a

wide receiver heavy format the players

are ranked as efficiently as possible

where these rankings here are from Real

Money real money is on the line the

sharpest drafters in the world are

drafting here and that's why Michael

Pitman at wide receiver 25 on Underdog

but he's wide receiver 17 by consensus

that is just awful value any way you cut

it now when we talk about why he's

ranked this way on Underdog and why

people who are putting money down don't

really like Michael Pitman it's for this

reason he last year was very good and he

was actually somebody we were drafting a

ton of he was wide receiver 14 in points

per game he had 109 receptions but just

15 of them came from came from Anthony

Richardson and we look here he had 12

games without Richardson 16 points seven

points per game that's amazing four

without him just or four with Anthony

Richardson but without Gardner mchu he

had 13 points per game not so great and

to me he's just a bad fit for Richardson

who is going to scramble a ton there's

not going to be a lot of Pat stems in

this offense then you

also have Richardson who likes to push

the ball downfield he had the highest

Ada among the first round quarterbacks

in 2023 right that's Bryce young that is

CJ strad and pitman's average up the

target over his entire career is 8.6 J L

his career a do 8.1 so we're talking

about like a really low a do player the

same reception upside of 109 still isn't

there you have ad Mitchell running out

of the slot instead of Michael pman now

you have a guy who's like operating on

the outside but his ad dot super low and

then you also have the idea that Shane

styken likes to run the ball in close

this is a good tweet from Jacob Gibbs

here the past three Shane styken seasons

have all resulted in more rushing

touchdowns than passing touchdowns even

including the Herbert rookie season Sten

has a 41% Red Zone pass rate only four

teams post at a lower rate than that in

2023 41% Red Zone pass rate that is

going to be a lot of Anthony Richardson

Zone Reed a lot of Jonathan Taylor up

the gut four touchdowns in this offense

most of these touchdowns will be to

Anthony Richardson or Jonathan Taylor

leaving Michael Pitman as the odd man

out so now we have lower PPR upside in

terms of receptions just based on

Richardson scrambling instead of

checking it down or looking to throw the

ball deep and then less touchdowns

because it'll just be Richardson and

it'll be Jonathan Taylor pounding it

into the end zone so I have a very tough

time taking Pitman anywhere near where

he goes in these home League drafts I

personally have him right now as a fifth

rounder in my rankings now our sixth

player is going to be Alvin kamaro he's

going at the

410 by consensus pick 33 on ESPN um he

when we talk about dead zone running

backs of guys that are just simply

projections for workloads and nothing

else Kamar fits the bill I just simply

can't take him when we look at it

year-over-year from jaob gibes here his

avoided tackle rate by season has just

gone down every single year since

2019 last year he was sixth worst in

tackle avoidance rate and when we see

that this is where we can kind of see

running backs start to decline and yes I

understand okay well he just has kendre

Miller and Jamal Williams behind him but

that's the Trap he's on the 25th

projected scoring offense it's going to

just be a PPR scam but not as good as it

was last year uh and in the fourth round

you're passing on Malik neighbors you're

passing on

um K meaf Devonte Smith here in these

consensus rankings in terms of Home

leagues I just can't get there I'd

rather take Kenneth Walker who goes in

this range I'd rather take James koku

goes in this range if you really want a

running back here this is where I'm also

taking like tight ends and Elite

quarterbacks to me Alvin Kamara is just

a pretty brutal bet uh you can also get

you know right at this four five turn as

well tank Dell Rashi rice T Higgins so

to me Kamar in the fourth round just

very clear Dead Zone running back uh

that I want nothing to do with and our

last player our seventh player that I am

not drafting inside of the top six

rounds of fantasy drafts is Keenan Allen

he's going at the 607 as the wide receiv

receiver 31 as high has picked 64 over

on sleeper and people don't understand

like yes he had the best year of his

career last year but it

wasn't it wasn't because he played his

best football if that makes sense he was

a big beneficiary from Kell Moore uh

here you can see when Allen was used in

pre- snap motion Kell Mo usually uses

this guy out of the slot with pre- SNAP

motion it's why people are very high on

either AJ brown or Devonte Smith based

on who they think is going to have this

role in Kell Moore's offense in Philly

uh he had a 35% Target Prout run as a

pre- snap motion guy 13.2% first downs

per route run without motion 26% targets

per route run 99.9% first downs per

route run which is just fine but it's

not like Keenan Allen was a monster and

had his best career ever this is like a

pretty standard Keenan Allen year and I

think that we're going to have a bit of

a come down here he's changing teams new

quarterback new system and and he has

looked pretty brutal in the preseason so

far now I will say it is just preseason

but so far he has ranked 250th of 285

qualifying receivers you have guys like

Hayden Wings looking at his film and

saying he doesn't move the same way that

he's moved in the past and then you also

have the downside that Shane Waldren

puts him in the jsn role that we all

hated from last year people keep saying

oh it's going to be Roman dun I don't

think so Roman dun's final year in

college he had a 15.5 yard ADOT

downfield only played 17.4% of his snaps

from the slot on the the other side

Keenan Allen has much similar numbers to

jsn where he's at 9.9 yard adott 59%

slot rate to jsn 6.4 yard ad Dot and 69%

Slot rate now I might say well 9.9 yard

ad out is much further downfield than

jsn 6.4 well jsn ad out in college was n

yards plus and Shane Waldron then took

that down and forced him to pee in this

role we could 100% see this happened to

Keenan Allen so the downside of age

falling off due to you know age and

injury he's missed a ton of games over

the last two years we've seen these wide

receivers change teams then completely

fall off right in the past where we've

seen Julio Jones go to Tennessee you've

of course you know seen a lot of other

ones that I don't really I don't want to

mention it in a bad way but of course

you've seen like Andre Johnson go to the

Colts you've seen uh a lot of things not

work out Brandon Marshall to the Giants

I'm trying to think there's a lot of

these guys that later in their careers

they change teams and it just doesn't

work out as planned here so I just can't

do it there's almost never a time where

I'm on the clock and Keenan Allen is

available but romad dun isn't either I

just prefer romad dun straight up I know

that that's aot a hot take but if I'm on

the clock and they're both there I'm

taking Rome uh it would have to be a

scenario for me where Roman dun is not

on the clock but Keenan Allen is for me

to ever end up with him on my roster and

that just hasn't happened and we do

structure our teams for the back half of

the season and usually these veterans

sort of tail off as a season goes on

whereas the rookies end up being the

league winners down the stretch like

Rashi rice Jaden Reed Z flowers and puka

AA all were last year and I think romad

dun has a much better chance of being

that than of course a guy like Keenan Al

now that is going to do it for us today

if you want to make sure you're avoiding

sinking your team with busts in these

early rounds make sure you check out the

the rankings over on patreon.com Ron

Stewart you can find them in the

description and the comment section down

below I have my top 200 cheat sheet with

tiers and my target rounds for each

player and they are based completely off

of all the research we do from all these

videos where I have all of these guys

pushed down so you won't be drafting

them you'll be drafting the guys with

rb1 upside early and filtering your

teams down the strategies that we

outline on this channel but if you can

support there just leave a like again

almost at 50,000 subscribers so make

sure if you're not already subscribe if

you're new and I will see yall in the

next

[Music]

one like this fr

I