I Said Hybrids Were The Future. Was I Right?

Summary

The video script discusses the current state of hybrid and electric vehicles, highlighting a stagnation in electric vehicle sales due to insufficient infrastructure and poor resale value. It points out that hybrid sales are increasing, particularly in the US and Europe, as they offer convenience and flexibility. The speaker predicts a continued rise in hybrid vehicles until electric grid upgrades are significantly improved. The script also touches on the potential for small nuclear reactors to become more attractive due to lagging grid connections.

Takeaways

• 🚗 The speaker initially predicted that hybrid vehicles will dominate the near-term future of transportation, which was met with skepticism by electric vehicle enthusiasts.
• 📈 Car sales numbers for the second quarter show an overall increase, but a closer look reveals that the majority of this growth is attributed to China, not a significant rise in battery electric vehicle sales in the US or Europe.
• 🔋 The speaker suggests that the lack of a rapid expansion in electric vehicle infrastructure is a major factor hindering the widespread adoption of electric vehicles.
• 🌐 A graph from Germany illustrates the slow progress in electric grid extension, with the actual progress falling far behind the original and revised plans.
• 📉 The resale value of electric vehicles is poor, which increases their overall cost and may deter potential buyers.
• 🏡 Demographic analysis indicates that electric vehicles are mostly owned by wealthier, eco-conscious households, suggesting a saturation point in this market segment.
• 🚍 Expert Jesse Jenkins points out that hybrid electric vehicles are well-suited for large vehicles like pickups and SUVs, which are popular in the US and have specific utility needs.
• 🛠️ The Ramcharger, a vehicle with both electric motors and a combustion engine, is highlighted as an innovative solution that can recharge batteries, despite the engineering challenges of combining two power systems.
• ⚡ The International Energy Agency reports warn that the slow expansion of electric grids in most countries will likely slow down the transition to electric vehicles.
• 💡 The lack of sufficient grid connections could make locally produced energy and small nuclear reactors more financially attractive for energy-heavy industries.

Q & A

What is the speaker's prediction for the near-term future of transportation?

The speaker predicts that the near-term future of transportation will involve more hybrid vehicles.

What did the speaker download from PWC and why?

The speaker downloaded a report from PWC containing car sales numbers for the second quarter of the year to provide data on the increase in hybrid vehicle sales.

Why does the speaker believe there has been no significant increase in battery electric sales in the United States?

The speaker believes the lack of significant increase in battery electric sales is due to the insufficient development of electric vehicle infrastructure.

What does the speaker mention about the electric grid extension in Germany?

The speaker mentions that the electric grid extension in Germany is lagging, as shown by a graph depicting the planned versus actual kilometers of new electric power lines.

What is one of the issues with electric vehicles that the speaker discusses?

One issue discussed is the poor resale value of electric vehicles, which makes them more expensive in the long run.

According to the speaker, which demographic group in the US is most likely to buy electric vehicles?

The demographic group most likely to buy electric vehicles in the US, according to the speaker, is eco-conscious upper middle-class homeowners.

What does Jesse Jenkins argue about the use of electric motors extended by gasoline?

Jesse Jenkins argues that electric motors extended by gasoline are great for vehicles like full-size pickups and massive SUVs, which are popular in America and Europe for their convenience.

What is the speaker's opinion on the engineering perspective of hybrid vehicles?

The speaker thinks the engineering perspective of hybrid vehicles is flawed because they have the weight and troubles of both battery-powered systems and combustion engines.

What does the speaker expect to see more of in the future until the electric grid upgrade catches up?

The speaker expects to see more hybrid vehicles in the future until the electric grid upgrade catches up, based on reports from the International Energy Agency.

What is the speaker's view on the potential increase in the attractiveness of small nuclear reactors?

The speaker views the potential increase in the attractiveness of small nuclear reactors as a consequence of the lack of sufficient grid connections and the need for locally produced energy.

What is the speaker's stance on the future of transportation in terms of what they want to happen versus what they think will happen?

The speaker clarifies that their predictions are not based on personal desires but on their analysis of what they think is likely to happen in the transportation sector.

Outlines

00:00

🚗 Hybrid Vehicles: The Future of Transportation?

The speaker begins by asserting that hybrid vehicles are the near-term future of transportation, despite criticism from Tesla enthusiasts. They provide a detailed analysis of car sales data from the second quarter, highlighting that while overall sales increased, the most significant growth was in China. In contrast, the United States and Europe saw little growth in battery electric vehicles but a notable rise in hybrid sales. The speaker attributes this to the slow development of electric vehicle infrastructure, making EVs inconvenient for many. They also mention the poor resale value of EVs, which adds to their cost. The speaker cites Ted Nordhaus from the Breakthrough Institute, who also predicts a shift towards hybrid vehicles due to policy and production trends. Demographic saturation in the EV market, particularly in wealthy areas, is noted as a factor contributing to the stagnation in sales. The speaker concludes by sticking to their prediction of a hybrid vehicle surge until electric grid upgrades are significantly improved, referencing the International Energy Agency's warnings on lagging electric grid extensions.

05:04

🔒 Privacy and Convenience with NordVPN

In the second paragraph, the speaker transitions to discuss privacy concerns and their preference for NordVPN, a virtual private network (VPN) service. They explain that NordVPN enhances internet security by encrypting connections and preventing data spying or tracking. The speaker appreciates the threat protection features against malware and malicious ads that NordVPN provides. Additionally, they highlight the convenience of accessing geo-restricted content by connecting to NordVPN's global server network. The speaker encourages viewers to subscribe for more content and mentions a special offer using the link nordvpn.com/sabine or the coupon code SABINE.

Keywords

💡Hybrid Vehicles

Hybrid vehicles refer to automobiles that use a combination of an internal combustion engine and an electric propulsion system. They are designed to improve fuel efficiency and reduce emissions compared to conventional vehicles. In the video's context, the speaker predicts a near-term future where hybrid vehicles will dominate due to the slow development of electric vehicle infrastructure. The script mentions a significant increase in hybrid sales in the United States and Europe, indicating a market shift towards these types of vehicles.

💡Electric Vehicles (EVs)

Electric vehicles are those powered solely by electricity, stored in rechargeable batteries or another energy storage device. They are often seen as a more environmentally friendly alternative to traditional gasoline-powered vehicles. The video discusses the challenges faced by EVs, such as poor resale value and the lack of a robust charging infrastructure, which are hindering their widespread adoption.

💡Infrastructure

In the context of the video, infrastructure refers to the physical and organizational structures needed for the operation of a society or enterprise, particularly the electric grid and charging stations for EVs. The speaker points out that the lack of sufficient infrastructure for EVs, such as charging stations and an upgraded electric grid, is a major obstacle to their adoption, as illustrated by the slow progress in Germany's electric power line expansion.

💡Resale Value

Resale value is the amount for which an asset, such as a vehicle, can be sold at a future date. The video script mentions that the resale value of electric vehicles is poor, which makes them effectively more expensive over their lifetime. This is a significant consideration for potential buyers and impacts the overall cost-effectiveness of EVs.

💡Demographic Saturation

Demographic saturation refers to the point at which a product has reached the majority of its potential customers within a specific demographic. The script discusses how the demographic group most likely to buy electric vehicles in the US, typically wealthier and eco-conscious individuals, may be nearing saturation, which could contribute to the stagnation in EV sales.

💡Energy-Policy

Energy policy involves decisions and actions related to the production, distribution, and consumption of energy. The video references experts like Jesse Jenkins, who argue for the suitability of hybrid vehicles for specific demands, such as large vehicles in the US. This highlights the role of energy policy in shaping the types of vehicles that are developed and marketed.

💡NordVPN

NordVPN is a virtual private network (VPN) service provider mentioned in the video as a sponsor. VPNs are used to create secure, encrypted connections over the internet, allowing users to protect their privacy and access region-restricted content. The video uses NordVPN as an example of a product that can solve specific user needs, such as bypassing geo-restrictions.

💡International Energy Agency (IEA)

The International Energy Agency is an autonomous intergovernmental organization that provides policy advice to its member countries, particularly on energy issues. The video cites the IEA's reports warning about the lag in electric grid extensions, which supports the speaker's prediction that the transition to electric vehicles will be slowed down due to infrastructure challenges.

💡Small Nuclear Reactors

Small nuclear reactors are a type of nuclear power plant with a smaller capacity than traditional large-scale reactors. The video suggests that due to the lack of sufficient grid connections, locally produced energy, such as from small nuclear reactors, may become more appealing for energy-heavy industries. This keyword is part of the broader discussion on alternative energy solutions.

💡Eco-Conscious

Eco-conscious refers to being aware of and concerned about the environment and the impact of one's actions on it. The video describes a demographic of eco-conscious upper-middle-class individuals who are more likely to own electric vehicles. This term is used to characterize the current market for EVs and to discuss potential market expansion.

💡Full-Size Pickups and SUVs

Full-size pickups and SUVs are large, heavy-duty vehicles often used for towing and carrying heavy loads. The video mentions these vehicle types to illustrate the specific demands of the American market, suggesting that hybrid vehicles are better suited to meet these needs compared to purely electric vehicles, which may not have the same towing capacity or utility.

Highlights

Prediction that hybrid vehicles will dominate the near-term future of transportation.

Controversy with Tesla enthusiasts over the preference for hybrid vehicles.

Car sales numbers for Q2 show an overall increase, with a significant rise in China.

In the US, no significant increase in battery electric sales, but a rise in hybrid sales.

Similar trend in Europe with a focus on hybrid vehicles.

Ted Nordhaus from the Breakthrough Institute supports the shift towards hybrid vehicles.

Lack of electric vehicle infrastructure as a barrier to widespread adoption.

Electric grid extension in Germany is not progressing as planned.

Resale value of electric vehicles is poor, making them more expensive in the long run.

Electric vehicle sales stagnation in the US due to market saturation among eco-conscious buyers.

Jesse Jenkins argues for the suitability of hybrid vehicles for specific American and European demands.

Introduction of the Ramcharger by Stellantis, a hybrid vehicle with two electric motors and a combustion engine.

Critique of the engineering logic behind combining electric and combustion engines in a single vehicle.

Expectation of more hybrids until the electric grid infrastructure improves significantly.

Reports from the International Energy Agency warn that electric grid extensions are lagging.

The potential for locally produced energy and small nuclear reactors to become more attractive due to grid limitations.

A disclaimer that the prediction is based on current trends and not personal preference or endorsement.

Promotion of NordVPN for secure internet connections and privacy protection.

Transcripts

A few months ago I told you that the  near-term future of transportation is  

hybrid vehicles. This rather predictably  pissed of all the Tesla bros who think  

I don’t know what I’m talking  about. They’re right of course,  

I have no idea what I’m talking about or why  anyone is listening to me, and yet here you are,  

listening to me. While you’re here let’s  look at the car sales numbers for quarter 2.

I downloaded this report from PWC so you don’t  have to, because they insist on putting you  

on an email list for this. These are the total  sales numbers in the second quarter of this year  

compared to the previous year. At first sight  that looks pretty good. Hey, they all went up.  

But hold your confetti. At second sight, you will  notice that the part that increased most is China.

If you look at the breakdown for the United  States you can see that there’s been basically  

no increase in battery electric sales, but  a significant increase in hybrid sales.  

Same thing in Europe, where 5+5 means  the 5 largest European economies plus 5  

smaller ones sprinkled on top so that  the Americans don’t get to confused.

Of course, I haven’t been the only to point  out that hybrids are a likely development.  

Ted Nordhaus from the Breakthrough  Institute recently wrote about this too,  

arguing that “The most likely shift in the  focus of both policy and vehicle production,  

it seems to me, will be toward various  types of gas/electric hybrid vehicles.”

My main reason for saying a switch  to more hybrid is likely was that  

the infrastructure for electric vehicles  isn’t coming along quickly enough. And for  

many people that means electric vehicles  will remain too much of an inconvenience. 

In case you are wondering how it is going  with the electric grid extension in Germany,  

I just the other day came across this charming  graph. It shows the planned new kilometers for  

electric power lines. The red curve is the  original plan, the orange the first revision,  

the blue the second revision. And the red dots are  what actually happened. It’s all going just fine.

There’s also that now that electric vehicles have  been around for some while people are starting to  

notice that the resale value is poor which  effectively makes them even more expensive.

Nordhaus in his article also points out that  at least in the US part of the reason for  

the stagnation in electric vehicle sales is  that the demographic group most likely to buy  

them is near to being saturated. A study  from last year found that in California,  

electric vehicles are predominantly registered  in the wealthiest zip codes areas. I haven’t seen  

numbers from Europe, but I suspect that it’s  a similar thing here. The people I know who  

have electric vehicles are all house owners  that I’d loosely describe as eco-conscious  

upper middle class. Demographically  it’s not the big bulk of people.

Another good argument comes from  Jesse Jenkins, an expert on energy  

policy at Princeton University who argues more  specifically that electric motors extended by  

gasoline are great for quote the “uniquely  American demand for full-size pickups and  

massive SUVs.” Because let’s face it,  if it can’t haul a boat, three kids,  

and a small village, is it even American?  Though I would argue they’re also great for  

the European demand for convenience because  how else do you get the IKEA bed back home.

Jenkins writes that had his insight after  learning about the new Ramcharger from  

Stellantis. The Ramcharger has two electric  motors, combined with a combustion engine that  

runs on gasoline and can recharge the batteries.  Jenkins writes “I think it’s brilliant.”  

Which is basically the same I said about the  Nissan Quashqai when I first heard about it.

From an engineering perspective, this  is an incredibly stupid idea because  

you have the weight and troubles  of both the battery powered system  

and the combustion engine. But then again  from an engineering perspective we should  

have been using electric vehicles all  along, so maybe not the best argument.

I think for the time being I’ll stick by  my prediction that we’ll see more hybrid  

in the future until the electric  grid upgrade seriously catches up. 

I base this expectation mainly on reports from  the international energy agency which has warned  

repeatedly that electric grid extension are  lagging behind in most countries. And the most  

obvious consequence of this, I think, will  be to slow down the transition to electric.

The second consequence I expect is that  in lack of sufficient grid connections,  

locally produced energy will  look increasingly appealing,  

especially when it comes to energy-heavy industry.  That is going to make small nuclear reactors  

financially much more attractive. But that’s  another story and shall be told another time.

And as always, I’m not saying that this is what  I want to happen or that I think it’s good that  

this happens, it’s just what I think is going to  happen. If you want more unformed opinions that  

you complain about, don’t forget to subscribe.  Spoiler alert: There’ll be more bad jokes.

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