欧米でEV販売に陰り 実は世界中ハイブリッドブーム！【日経プラス９】（2024年2月14日）

Summary

The video discusses the current state of electric vehicle (EV) adoption in Europe. It highlights the decline in traditional engine car sales, while hybrid vehicles (HEVs and PHEVs) are seeing significant growth. Despite government subsidies promoting EVs, their market share remains at 14.6%. Experts debate the challenges of transitioning to EVs, including political and economic issues, as well as the competition from Chinese EVs. The discussion also covers the impact of reduced subsidies in various countries and potential shifts in policy, including the influence of political decisions on the future of the automotive industry.

Takeaways

• 🚗 The share of combustion engine cars in Europe has dropped from over 90% in 2017 to below 50%, driven by the plan to ban new combustion engine cars by 2035.
• 🔋 Hybrid vehicles (HEV) and plug-in hybrids (PHEV) have seen significant growth, now making up 33.5% of the market.
• ⚡ Electric vehicles (EVs) have seen some growth but only hold a 14.6% market share, despite government subsidies.
• 💼 The initial surge in EV sales was driven by innovators and early adopters, but now the majority of people who needed or wanted to buy an EV have already done so.
• 🌍 The EU's push for EV adoption is seen as politically motivated, aimed at boosting the European automotive industry, but it hasn’t been as successful as hoped.
• 🛢️ The emergence of synthetic fuels, especially for high-end sports cars, indicates continued demand for combustion engines, alongside the EV push.
• 🇨🇳 A major concern is the increasing influx of cheaper Chinese-made EVs, leading the EU to investigate unfair competition and consider raising tariffs on Chinese imports.
• 💸 EV subsidies in major markets like Germany and France are being reduced or restricted, particularly for vehicles produced outside Europe, such as Tesla's Model 3.
• 🇺🇸 In the U.S., while EV sales are growing, hybrids are seeing faster growth, indicating a broader hybrid shift rather than a full EV shift.
• 📊 The EV market is seen as heavily influenced by political decisions, with potential shifts based on changes in leadership, such as the possibility of Trump repealing EV mandates if re-elected.

Q & A

What is the current trend in new car sales in Europe?

The share of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, which accounted for over 90% of sales in 2017, has fallen below 50% in Europe. Hybrid vehicles (HEV) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) have seen significant growth, with a combined market share of 33.5%, while electric vehicles (EV) currently hold a 14.6% market share.

What challenges does the EV shift face in Europe?

The EV shift in Europe has become a political issue. While there has been strong promotion of EV adoption, the reality is that the shift has not been as smooth as expected. This is due to issues like consumer reluctance, market saturation among early adopters, and challenges in maintaining political and financial support.

Why is hybrid technology gaining more traction than full EVs?

Hybrids are gaining more traction because they offer a balance between traditional engine reliability and electric innovation. Additionally, many consumers still prefer hybrids over full EVs due to concerns about charging infrastructure, range anxiety, and the higher cost of EVs.

How has the market for EVs been affected by government subsidies in Europe?

Government subsidies have been a significant factor in boosting EV sales, but many countries like Germany and France are scaling back or adjusting these incentives. For example, Germany's EV subsidy ended in December 2023, and France has restricted subsidies to exclude certain popular models like the Tesla Model 3.

What impact has the influx of Chinese-made EVs had on the European market?

The influx of Chinese-made EVs has raised concerns in Europe, with the European Commission investigating the impact of subsidized Chinese EVs on the market. There is a growing fear of unfair competition, which has led to considerations of raising tariffs on Chinese EV imports.

What is the current state of the EV market in the U.S.?

In the U.S., EV sales are growing but at a slower pace. EV purchases can benefit from up to $7,500 in tax credits, but the market has shown signs of slowing, with the growth rate declining from 80% to around 40% compared to the previous year. The U.S. market is also seeing stronger growth in hybrid sales compared to EVs.

How are hybrid and EV sales evolving in the U.S.?

While EV sales are growing, hybrids have been outperforming them in 2023. This suggests that the U.S. market is also experiencing a hybrid shift, similar to trends seen in Europe and other regions.

What role does consumer preference play in the U.S. EV market?

Consumer preferences play a significant role in the U.S. market. Many Americans prefer larger, powerful vehicles like full-size pickup trucks, which has impacted the success of EV versions of these vehicles. For example, the EV version of the Ford F-150 has seen reduced production due to lower-than-expected demand.

What might happen to the EV market if Donald Trump becomes president again?

If Donald Trump returns to office, he has indicated plans to roll back many of the EV-friendly policies put in place by the Biden administration. He has criticized these policies as harmful to the auto industry and has promised to rescind EV mandates on his first day in office.

How are automakers preparing for the uncertainty in the EV market?

Automakers, like Toyota, are adopting an 'all-round strategy,' developing various technologies to ensure they can respond to any market changes. While continuing to develop EVs, many manufacturers are heavily relying on hybrids in the short term to maintain profitability and consumer appeal.