楽天の中間決算について解説します

Summary

In this video, the speaker discusses the financial performance of Rakuten for the 2024 fiscal year, focusing on its ongoing challenges with Rakuten Mobile's continued losses. Despite significant revenue growth from its financial and e-commerce sectors, the company struggles with high costs and a substantial deficit. The speaker highlights the sale and leaseback of mobile infrastructure, a new strategy to reduce debt, while expressing concerns over the long-term impact of high-interest rates and debt obligations. Despite these challenges, the speaker remains optimistic about Rakuten's stock potential, reflecting on strategic decisions and market conditions.

Takeaways

• 😀 The video is recorded at Oita Airport and discusses the financial results for Rakuten's June 2024 fiscal year.
• 😀 Rakuten Mobile continues to face significant losses, with a net loss exceeding 30 billion yen despite achieving record revenue from its other businesses.
• 😀 Despite financial struggles, Rakuten Mobile's subscriber count is growing rapidly, exceeding 7 million contracts.
• 😀 CEO Mitsuya is focusing on corporate sales and reducing capital expenditures to curb losses.
• 😀 Rakuten is introducing a new financial concept: 'Pre-Marketing Cash Flow,' highlighting how advertising spending impacts its profitability.
• 😀 Rakuten Mobile's EBITDA is still negative, though there is optimism about it soon turning positive due to reduced investment in infrastructure.
• 😀 A key point in the earnings report is the sale of Rakuten Mobile's infrastructure to the Macquarie Group for 200-300 billion yen, which is expected to generate funds for future investments.
• 😀 Rakuten will lease back its infrastructure from Macquarie Group under a sale-and-leaseback model, an arrangement that could involve high-interest costs (possibly over 10%).
• 😀 The high interest rates and currency exchange risks associated with the financing model could lead to long-term financial burdens for Rakuten, despite potential short-term cash flow improvements.
• 😀 The low ARPU (average revenue per user) for Rakuten Mobile is a challenge, with the company needing to raise this metric to improve profitability in comparison to its competitors.

Q & A

What are the current financial challenges faced by Rakuten Mobile?

Rakuten Mobile continues to face significant financial challenges, with its operating losses reducing but still reporting a net loss of over 30 billion yen. Despite record-high revenues from sectors like finance and e-commerce, Rakuten Mobile's poor performance is dragging down the overall financial situation.

How has Rakuten Mobile's subscriber growth been impacted?

Rakuten Mobile has seen explosive growth in its subscriber base, surpassing 7 million contracts. This growth is considered a positive development, although the company still struggles with profitability.

What strategic efforts has Rakuten’s management undertaken to reduce losses?

Rakuten's management, led by Mitsu, has focused on reducing capital investment, particularly by cutting back on equipment investments, which has helped reduce the loss margin. Additionally, they are working hard on corporate sales to boost revenue.

What does the concept of 'Pre-Marketing Cash Flow' refer to in Rakuten's financial reports?

The 'Pre-Marketing Cash Flow' concept introduced in Rakuten's financial statements refers to the idea that if Rakuten Mobile ceases all marketing efforts, the cash flow could turn positive, indicating that marketing costs are currently a major factor in the negative cash flow.

What are the potential risks associated with Rakuten's debt and financing structure?

Rakuten has structured its financing through a sale-and-leaseback deal with Macquarie Group, potentially involving interest rates above 10%. This, combined with foreign exchange risks and the long-term financial burden, could negatively impact Rakuten's overall financial health.

How does Rakuten's use of the sale-and-leaseback model affect their financial strategy?

The sale-and-leaseback strategy allows Rakuten to raise capital by selling its mobile infrastructure and leasing it back. This strategy helps alleviate immediate financial pressures but locks Rakuten into long-term lease obligations, potentially with high-interest rates and foreign exchange risk.

Why does Rakuten Mobile struggle with profitability despite a growing number of contracts?

Despite the growing number of subscribers, Rakuten Mobile struggles with profitability due to its low Average Revenue Per User (ARPU), which is more than 1,000 yen lower than its competitors. Unless they can increase ARPU, profitability will remain a challenge.

What role does equipment investment play in Rakuten Mobile’s financial recovery?

Rakuten Mobile's recovery hinges on reducing its equipment investment. While they have completed much of the infrastructure setup, future investments are expected to be lower, which should help improve EBITDA and eventually lead to profitability.

What is the significance of Rakuten’s stock price in the context of its financial performance?

Rakuten’s stock price has seen an increase, with the value rising from around 800 yen to over 1,000 yen, despite the ongoing losses in its mobile segment. The stock price surge suggests that investors are optimistic about Rakuten’s broader business prospects, including its financial and e-commerce segments.

What can be expected of Rakuten Mobile’s future given its current financial situation?

Rakuten Mobile’s future is uncertain, as it faces challenges in becoming profitable due to high interest rates, a heavy reliance on corporate sales, and the need to improve ARPU. However, with significant subscriber growth and a diverse revenue base, there may be long-term potential if these challenges are addressed.