楽天の株価が急騰！社債はどうなる？KDDIに買収される？今後の可能性について解説します

Summary

The video discusses the recent performance of Rakuten, focusing on its mobile business, financial struggles, and potential acquisition. Despite a positive stock rally following the latest financial report, Rakuten faces significant debt, including high-interest loans. The speaker speculates about the company's future, with a potential exit strategy or acquisition by a competitor like KDDI. Additionally, strategic moves such as offering free SIM cards to stockholders and external partnerships like with Itochu are mentioned. The analysis highlights Rakuten's uncertain future and the possibility of major restructuring or sale.

Takeaways

• 😀 The recent financial results from Rakuten have shown positive growth, with stock prices continuing to rise, reaching a market capitalization of approximately 1.7 trillion yen.
• 😀 Rakuten's financial foundation remains weak, with substantial debt, including car loans at a 12% interest rate in the US, which could pose risks if the yen weakens.
• 😀 Despite financial struggles, Rakuten has made efforts to reduce borrowing, cutting down loans by about 40%, and has taken steps to raise capital through various financial instruments like non-voting preferred shares.
• 😀 To attract new customers, Rakuten has offered free SIM cards and a year’s worth of mobile service to shareholders who held stock as of December 2023, aiming to boost subscriber numbers.
• 😀 A significant corporate partnership has emerged, with Itochu Corporation shifting its corporate mobile services to Rakuten Mobile, signaling growing corporate adoption of the service.
• 😀 KDDI is making strategic moves in the telecom sector, buying up shares in Lawson and looking to strengthen its position in mobile payments and other peripheral areas, signaling potential consolidation in the market.
• 😀 Rumors suggest that Rakuten’s sports team, the Rakuten Eagles, may be up for sale, as the company faces ongoing financial pressures, including the looming repayment of billions of yen in debt.
• 😀 Rakuten Mobile is scaling back its infrastructure investments, relying more on KDDI’s roaming services, which may point toward a potential exit from the mobile business in the near future.
• 😀 There’s a possibility of Rakuten Mobile merging with or being acquired by KDDI, especially as Rakuten’s ownership share in its mobile business has fallen below 30%, making it a more likely target for acquisition.
• 😀 The financial troubles facing Rakuten could lead to major restructuring within the company, with KDDI potentially taking control, marking a significant shift in the Japanese telecom industry.
• 😀 The scenario mirrors past business exits, such as when former CEO Maezawa sold StartToday, but in Rakuten’s case, the company might emerge in a new form after navigating these financial challenges.

Q & A

What was the result of Rakuten's recent earnings announcement?

Rakuten's recent earnings announcement showed that their stock price continued to rise, even reaching a limit-up during the announcement day. As of now, the market capitalization is around 1.7 trillion yen, after previously dipping below 1 trillion yen.

How has Rakuten's financial situation been described in the transcript?

Rakuten's financial situation is still considered difficult, with liabilities of approximately 25 billion yen in dollar-denominated bonds, which have high interest rates of around 12%. Despite some improvements in reducing debt, the company still faces significant financial challenges.

What strategies has Rakuten employed to manage its financial troubles?

Rakuten has been issuing high-interest bonds and stocks, including a new type of bond-like stock offering, and also distributing SIM cards to shareholders to increase the number of subscribers and improve its image.

Why did Rakuten distribute SIM cards to its shareholders?

Rakuten distributed SIM cards to shareholders as a strategy to boost subscriber numbers and create a positive perception among investors. By offering free mobile service for a year, they aimed to encourage shareholders to use their services, potentially increasing Rakuten's user base.

What is the financial risk associated with Rakuten's debt?

Rakuten faces significant financial risk due to its reliance on foreign-denominated bonds, which are vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations. With yen depreciation, the company could face higher costs in servicing its debt, particularly in US dollar-denominated bonds.

How is Rakuten's mobile business structured, according to the transcript?

Rakuten's mobile business is undergoing restructuring, shifting towards a model where they heavily rely on KDDI's roaming services. They have outsourced operations, including base station management, and reduced investment in their own infrastructure, which raises questions about the future of Rakuten Mobile.

What potential acquisition is discussed in the transcript?

The transcript discusses the possibility of Rakuten being acquired by KDDI or a similar company. The company's financial struggles and the sale of assets, including their sports team and bank shares, have led to speculation that Rakuten could be a target for acquisition.

What role do external companies like Itochu play in Rakuten's mobile business?

Itochu is collaborating with Rakuten by moving their corporate mobile services to Rakuten Mobile. This partnership indicates a potential shift towards broader corporate adoption of Rakuten's services, but also reflects Rakuten's current strategy of outsourcing and reducing operational costs.

How has Rakuten's relationship with KDDI evolved?

Rakuten has become increasingly reliant on KDDI for network infrastructure, especially through roaming agreements. The company's reliance on KDDI has raised concerns about whether Rakuten's mobile division might eventually be absorbed into KDDI's operations.

What does the speaker suggest might happen to Rakuten's future?

The speaker suggests that Rakuten's financial troubles may eventually lead to the company being acquired by KDDI, as its market share and stock performance could make it an attractive acquisition target. They speculate that Rakuten's exit could be similar to other high-profile business sales in Japan, such as the sale of ZOZOTOWN.