US Air Force trains less than the Chinese and is 660 fighter pilots short of its goal

Summary

The US Air Force faces significant challenges that could hamper its effectiveness in a conflict with a peer opponent like China. Key issues include a pilot shortage, particularly among fighter pilots, which may reduce the number of missions performed daily. Additionally, the Air Force has seen a decline in annual flight training hours, potentially falling behind China's training efforts. These factors, combined with the loss of experienced instructors post-Cold War and the lure of commercial aviation careers, raise concerns about the readiness and proficiency of US Air Force pilots.

Takeaways

• 😲 The US Air Force faces a significant pilot shortage, particularly among fighter pilots, with a current shortfall of 660 active duty fighter pilots out of 3,800.
• 📉 Over the past decade, the US Air Force has experienced a decline in flight training hours, which could impact readiness and proficiency.
• 🚀 The potential impact of the pilot shortage includes a reduced number of missions that can be flown per day, with estimates suggesting up to 150 fewer fighter jets available for missions.
• 💺 Long missions and the physical demands on pilots mean that sometimes planes are ready for missions, but pilots are not, due to the intense preparation and recovery time required.
• 📉 The US Air Force's flight hours have dropped significantly from over 200 hours per year during the Cold War to less than 100 hours for the average active-duty fighter pilot.
• 🆚 In contrast, Chinese fighter pilots are reported to be flying 150 hours per year, suggesting they may be training more than their US counterparts.
• 💼 The shift of pilots to more lucrative commercial jobs and budget constraints have contributed to the decline in training hours for the US Air Force.
• 🛠️ Despite the reduction in flight hours, the US Air Force has been increasing its use of simulators for training, which has helped maintain some level of proficiency.
• 🌐 China's military spending surge and increased flight activity, including near Taiwan, suggest that their pilots may be training more intensively than previously thought.
• ⏳ The long-term effects of reduced training hours on the US Air Force's combat readiness and pilot proficiency remain uncertain, but they pose potential risks.

Q & A

Why is the US Air Force facing a pilot shortage?

The US Air Force is facing a pilot shortage due to a combination of factors including the post-Cold War downsizing, which resulted in a loss of many instructors, and the attraction of commercial airlines offering more lucrative jobs to pilots. Additionally, there is a lack of funding to fly combat jets as often as before, leading to disillusionment among new pilots who do not get to fly as much as they expected.

How does the pilot shortage impact the number of missions that can be performed per day?

The pilot shortage can lead to a reduction in the number of sorties per day. If a plane is ready for a mission but the pilot is not, this can result in up to 150 fighter jets not being able to perform missions, which could be significant in a large-scale war.

What is the current state of US Air Force pilot training hours?

US Air Force pilot training hours have been significantly reduced since the Cold War era, with the average active-duty Air Force fighter pilot now flying fewer than 100 hours per year, which is a substantial decrease from the over 200 hours per year during the Cold War.

How does the use of flight simulators in training address the issue of reduced flight hours?

Flight simulators have helped to mitigate the reduction in actual flight hours by providing a realistic training environment. Simulators can account for a significant portion of all training, with anecdotal evidence suggesting that around a third of all training was done in simulators a decade ago, and this figure may be even higher today.

What is the impact of long flight missions on pilots?

Long flight missions, which can last up to 7 to 8 hours, are physically taxing on pilots due to the extended time spent in a cramped cockpit. This can lead to fatigue and potentially affect the pilot's readiness to fly another mission on the same day.

How does the US Air Force's current pilot training compare with that of China's?

While the US Air Force has traditionally had a strong training program, recent reports suggest that Chinese fighter pilots may now be flying more hours per year than their US counterparts, possibly due to increased military spending and a focus on training in China.

What factors have contributed to the decline in US Air Force flight training hours?

The decline in flight training hours is attributed to budget constraints that led to less flying time, as well as a shift in focus towards the development of new technology systems and a change in the way training is conducted, with an increased reliance on simulators.

How does the age of US Air Force aircraft affect pilot training?

The age of US Air Force aircraft can impact pilot training due to reduced availability for training sorties. Older planes may also require more maintenance, which can limit the time pilots have to train on actual aircraft.

What reforms have been implemented in Chinese pilot training to make it more realistic?

Chinese pilot training has undergone reforms to become more realistic, including allowing trainees to perform higher G maneuvers and experience spins. This is a shift from the more formal and risk-averse approach that was in place for decades.

What is the significance of the difference in training hours between US and Chinese pilots?

The difference in training hours between US and Chinese pilots could potentially impact the proficiency and readiness of pilots from both countries in a conflict scenario. While the US has a history of high-quality training, the increased flight hours of Chinese pilots may be leveling the playing field.

How might the US Air Force address its pilot shortage and training challenges?

The US Air Force could address its pilot shortage and training challenges by increasing funding for flight operations, improving retention rates by offering competitive career paths and benefits, and potentially reinstating some qualified personnel to cover part of the pilot shortage.

Outlines

00:00

🚀 US Air Force Challenges: Pilot Shortage and Training Woes

The US Air Force, recognized as the world's largest and most powerful, faces significant issues that could impact its performance in a conflict with a peer opponent like China. The video delves into the pilot shortage, particularly among fighter pilots, which stands at 15%, affecting the number of missions that can be performed daily. Additionally, the Air Force has experienced low training hours for a decade, with China potentially surpassing the US in annual flight hours. The shortage of pilots, exacerbated by fewer available instructors post-Cold War, switching to more lucrative commercial jobs, and reduced flight budgets, could lead to a decrease in sorties per day. The video also discusses the demanding nature of combat missions, the extensive planning and debriefing required, and the physical toll on pilots, suggesting that these factors might limit the Air Force's operational capacity.

05:00

🛫 Decline in US Air Force Flight Training Hours and Comparison with China

Historically, the US Air Force has prided itself on high flight training hours, which contributed to its proficiency. However, due to budget constraints in the early 2010s, the Air Force reduced flight hours, which have not fully recovered. The video contrasts this with the Chinese Air Force, which has been steadily increasing its flight hours. While the US Air Force has relied on simulators and multi-role training to compensate, the actual flight hours have dropped significantly, potentially impacting pilot proficiency. The video also examines the training methodologies and the shift in Chinese training practices to become more risk-tolerant and realistic. Despite the decline in US flight hours, the Air Force is still believed to maintain an edge in training quality. However, the long-term effects of reduced training on the US Air Force's capabilities remain uncertain, and the video suggests that China's increased flight hours could be a significant factor in future conflicts.

10:02

✈️ The Impact of Training Quality and Quantity on US and Chinese Air Forces

The video concludes by discussing the potential impact of training quality and quantity on the readiness of the US and Chinese Air Forces. While the US Air Force has traditionally had a strong training program, recent years have seen a decline in flight hours, which could affect pilot proficiency. In contrast, China's Air Force has been increasing its flight hours, suggesting that its pilots may be training more than their US counterparts. The video also notes that the quality of Chinese training has improved, moving away from a very formal and risk-averse approach to one that is more similar to the US, with increased risks and realistic training scenarios. Despite these changes, the US Air Force is thought to still hold some advantage in training quality. The video ends on a note of caution, emphasizing that while discussions about war are common, it is peace that ultimately unites us all.

Keywords

💡US Air Force

The US Air Force is the focus of the video, being described as the biggest and strongest in the world. It is integral to the video's theme as it discusses the challenges it faces, such as pilot shortages and training issues, which could impact its performance in potential conflicts.

💡Pilot shortage

Pilot shortage refers to the insufficient number of pilots available for military service, particularly for fighter pilots within the US Air Force. This issue is central to the video's narrative, as it explores how this shortage could limit the number of missions performed per day and affect overall military readiness.

💡Fighter pilots

Fighter pilots are military aviators trained to engage in air-to-air combat while flying fighter aircraft. The video emphasizes the acute shortage of these pilots in the US Air Force, which amounts to 15% of active duty fighter pilot slots being unfilled, potentially impacting the force's combat capabilities.

💡Training woes

Training woes highlight the difficulties and challenges faced by the US Air Force in providing adequate flight training to its pilots. The video discusses how reduced flight hours and changes in training methodology may have affected pilot proficiency and readiness for combat scenarios.

💡Flight hours

Flight hours refer to the total amount of time a pilot spends flying, which is a critical measure of their experience and training. The script mentions that the US Air Force has seen a significant reduction in annual flight hours for pilots, which could impact their ability to perform complex missions.

💡Mission planning

Mission planning involves the strategic preparation for a military operation, including briefings, flight preparation, and debriefings. The video script describes how extensive mission planning is key to efficient pilot operations, but the demanding nature of such planning can be taxing on pilots and affect the number of sorties they can fly per day.

💡Sorties

Sorties are individual operational flights by military aircraft. The video discusses the potential reduction in the number of sorties that can be flown due to pilot shortages, which could be significant in large-scale conflicts and affect the overall effectiveness of the Air Force.

💡Peacetime vs. Wartime

The video contrasts the differences in pilot operations between peacetime and wartime scenarios. In peacetime, there is less demand for flight hours and mission planning, whereas in wartime, the demand increases significantly, exacerbating existing issues like pilot shortages and training deficiencies.

💡Commercial airliner pilot jobs

The script mentions that existing pilots often switch to commercial airliner pilot jobs due to higher pay and less demanding schedules. This trend contributes to the pilot shortage in the US Air Force, as it loses experienced personnel to the civilian sector.

💡Chinese fighter pilots

The video compares the training and flight hours of US Air Force pilots with those of Chinese fighter pilots. It suggests that Chinese pilots may be flying more hours per year, which could potentially give them an advantage in terms of training and readiness, despite potential differences in training quality.

💡Multi-role planes and pilots

Multi-role planes are aircraft designed to perform multiple types of missions, such as air-to-air combat and ground attack. The video mentions that having multi-role pilots and planes can increase the flexibility and effectiveness of the Air Force, but it also requires specific training for each role.

Highlights

The US Air Force faces a serious pilot shortage, especially among fighter pilots, impacting its operational capabilities.

The pilot shortage amounts to 660 active duty fighter pilots, representing a 15% shortfall.

Reserve forces are also affected, with 15% of overall pilot slots unfilled.

In peacetime, pilot names under canopies are mostly for show, as pilots fly whatever plane they're given.

Long missions can be physically taxing, potentially limiting the number of sorties per day.

The US Air Force struggles to remedy the pilot shortage due to post-Cold War downsizing and a lack of training capacity.

Pilot training hours have been significantly reduced since the Cold War, affecting proficiency.

US pilots may have received less training for certain tasks compared to their Soviet counterparts.

Flight hours for US Air Force pilots have fallen to less than 100 hours per year on average.

Simulator training has increased, but the Air Force still recognizes the need for more actual flight hours.

Chinese fighter pilots are reported to have increased their flight hours, possibly surpassing US pilots.

Chinese military spending and increased flight activity suggest a potential training advantage.

Despite the training hours, the quality of US Air Force pilot training may still hold an edge over China.

China's pilot training has historically been more formal and cautious, with recent reforms allowing for more realistic training conditions.

The impact of reduced training on future US Air Force capabilities is uncertain but concerning.

Older aircraft in the US Air Force may limit the availability for training, affecting overall readiness.

The US Air Force's current situation is not ideal, with potential implications for its effectiveness in a peer opponent war.

Transcripts

the US Air Force is the biggest and

strongest in the world that much is

known but it has some serious issues

that you may not know about this video

will go in depth on two of those both

which might impact its performance in a

peer opponent War like against China we

will cover the US Air Force pilot

shortage especially acute when it comes

to fighter pilots how might that impact

the number of missions performed per day

and will cover the Air Force training

woes for a decade now the Air Force

training hours have been quite low so

much so that China likely overshot them

in pure hours flowing per year how did

that happen how much are us and China

flying per year watch the video to find

[Music]

out let's go straight in the Air Force

is short on Pilots for some years now

the Air Force has been several 100

Pilots short 6% of active duty Air Force

pilot spots are not taken almost all of

those are fighter pilot slots making the

problem worse the shortage amounts to

660 active duty fighter pilots against

3,800 active duty fighter pilots so we

can see the fighter pilot shortage

amounts to 15% which is a lot Reserve

forces lock even more pilots some 12200

meaning 15% of overall slots are empty

situation hasn't really improved in the

last 2 years now the Air Force does

always have more pilots than seats on

their planes for example it has twice as

many bomber Pilots than there are pilot

and co-pilot seats on all us active

bombers combined and it has over 1.7

Pilots for every pilot seat on tactical

planes but in a war combat missions can

be very demanding and Pilots will fly

whatever plane is available in their

unit even in peacetime pilot names

written under canopies are mostly for

show Pilots play whatever plane they're

given past experience in Wars has proven

that extensive Mission planning

briefings and debriefings are key to

efficient Pilots all missions in war are

planned one way or another for a single

Mission an average pilot might spend

several hours in Mission planning with

his unit followed by a 2-hour briefing

then up to an hour of flight prep taxing

around the runway and so on followed by

whatever flight time the actual Mission

requires finally an hour for postflight

paperwork and review of inair camera

footage and again an hour or two to

debrief some missions will be short just

half an hour of flight time if it's an

interception those won't be planned as

much but especially in the Pacific

against China some missions may involve

Great distances in Flight refueling and

possibly several hours in the cockpit if

long time on station is required ired

even 7 to 8 Hour missions would not be

rare so anywhere from 12 to 15 hours of

prep flight and debrief per day might be

the norm in the Pacific Long missions

sitting for hours in a cramped cockpit

are notoriously taxing on the body long

story short there might often be

situations where a plane does a mission

and is ready even the same day but the

pilot is not ready 10 or 15% fewer

sorties per day might not be trivial in

a large War for a thousand planes

available on paper that might mean up to

150 fighter jets not actually doing

missions that's why insufficient pilot

numbers might be an issue sad issue is

hard for the Air Force to remedy it

downsizes the force after the Cold War

losing many instructors now it doesn't

have the capacity to train enough new

pilots at once and existing Pilots often

switch jobs earlier than before choosing

more lucra commercial airliner pilot

jobs the fact that there is not enough

money to fly combat Jets as often as

before is also an issue and eager new

pilots may get disillusioned when they

see how little they actually fly per

year during peace time in Wartime some

of those pilot debriefs might be

compressed and other pilot qualified

Personnel might be reinstated as actual

Pilots to cover part of the shortage but

it's still an

issue however here's the really ugly

part pilot training that has for the

longest time since World War II been a

strong point for the US Air Force during

the Cold War us Pilots were famously

getting over 200 hours of flight time

per year while soet Pilots were managing

120 more training usually means greater

proficiency at most tasks but it can

also mean that certain tasks require

their own training for example Soviets

had very few inlight refueling planes

and thus very few soet Pilots trained

for that us Pilots relied on such

refueling so part of their 200 plus

annual hours was spent training for sad

activity effectively that could mean

fewer hours trained for the same stuff

that the Soviets trained for similarly

Soviet Pilots were often trained for

either air combat or ground combat many

US Pilots received training for both

again possibly leveling the field a bit

of course having malti roll planes and

multi-roll Pilots effectively means more

planes for any given task so it is

desirable to multitask and multiroll

anyway come the early 2010s the US DOD

was strapped for cash and the Air Force

decided it was wise to fly less and

somehow that mostly stuck even to today

the monthly flight figures per pilot

have fallen to abysmal levels from their

Cold War era highs figures come from the

Air Force's Alman publication sadly for

2023 the Air Force chose not to disclose

their figures hopefully they've got

nothing to hide issue with data used is

that it uses two different measurement

systems in the early 2010s it shows all

tactical aircraft together which may

include planes other than Fighters data

from 2018 onward is more precise

anecdotally however there were reports

of old F-15 and F-16 Pilots hitting

milestones years ago so 15 years ago it

does seem as if fighter pilots were more

easily hitting 130 and sometimes even

170 hours per year even that is a far

cry from the Cold War era 200 hours per

year fast forward to a few years ago and

it's evident those figures fell to fewer

than 100 hours for the average active

duty Air Force fighter pilot with

Reserve Pilots like Air National Guard

ones fairing even a bit worse it was

only in 201 22 that some visible rise in

training hours happened but even that is

far far from figures needed to be

proficient at a multitude of tasks it

has to be said of course that simulators

have helped a great deal in the last

decade or two 10 years ago a third of

all training was done in simulators

today that is likely to be even higher

but still given that we see an attempt

to increase actual flight hours it is

apparent the Air Force also sees those

sub 100h hour figures as inadequate that

has been happening for some years now so

there may be a whole generation of

Pilots which never really trained enough

all that is compounded with more and

more pilots leaving for more profitable

jobs right after their 10e stint in the

Air Force ends overall average

competency of an Air Force fighter pilot

today is likely somewhat worse than 10

or 15 years ago advanced technology can

help compensate for that but only to a

degree to put all that in context how do

those figures compare with Chinese ones

only sporadic claims of training hours

exist and not all are equally reputable

but some semblance of a trend can be

surmised in 1995 a Rand Think Tank paper

claimed China's fighter pilots flew 100

to 110 hours per year that was basically

just half the US figures back then in

2007 us DOD Presser report claim Chinese

fighter pilots flew 120 hours a year

that was already closer to us figures as

by 2017 not many Pilots were hitting 170

hours judging by those rare milestones

and National Guard Pilots were already

doing under 100 hours back then military

balance 2018 publication said that in

2017 China's bomber attack and fighter

pilots average from 100 to 150 hours per

year using us ratios per type its

plausible fighter pilots were near the

upper range of that Spectrum back in

2012 Air Force magazine actually

suggested up to 200 hours of fight time

for China but let's leave that out as a

suspect outlier 2022 saw xus officer

John vanal say Chinese fighter pilots

are doing 150 hours per year based on

anecdotal reports there were instances

in Chinese media where a certain flanker

pilot would hit say 1,700 hour mil Stone

in 10 years but it's possible such

figures aren the norm or the average

during that 2017 to 2022 time frame

active duty US Air Force pilots were

doing 100 to 130 hours or 25% less

National Guard Pilots were basically

flying $100 hour per year over a third

less all that of course assumes Chinese

estimates are true but given the Surge

and Chinese military spending and uptick

in their flight activity there frequent

exercises near Taiwan it does seem

plausible China fighter pilots do train

more than US Air Force fighter pilots

and that may have been the case for

several years now more of course doesn't

have to mean that the training itself is

of the same quality US Air Force

aircraft being on average quite old

which we talked about in a previous

video also doesn't help old planes are

less available and with less planes

available less training can be done with

money being prioritized for other things

like developing new technology systems

to Trump the Chinese training may be

taking a back seat overall the US still

plausibly holds some pilot training

advantage over China for the longest

time China's Air Force training was very

formal and wrote it took roughly twice

as long as us pilot training with all

the officer training included for both

sides China safeguarded their trainees

and avoided risk in training that was

the way for decades the demand Landing

training was in a way informally

occurring only for active duty Pilots

once they reached their Frontline unit

only after 2017 after some reforms came

into place did Chinese pilot training

become more like the US one taking more

risks allowing traines to do higher G

Maneuvers to experience spins and so on

so China's Air Force has produced only

several years of Pilots trained under

reasonably realistic conditions so far

even if those Pilots do fly a lot once

they get to their Frontline units the US

Air Force still holds some Edge when it

comes to training quality and if the

flight hours increased soon the issue

that besets it could be partially

mitigated just how much the training

deficiency of the past and of today will

bite the US Air Force in the future

that's impossible to say but it's not a

good situation to be

in and remember bov may talk about war

but only real peace can bring us all

together