Netanyahu may be ‘going for a gigantic diversion’ with Lebanon war: Analysis
Summary
TLDRIn this discussion, Paul Rogers, Emeritus Professor of Peace Studies at the University of Bradford, analyzes the recent large-scale attacks in Lebanon. He suggests that while the US could potentially halt the conflict, internal politics prevent immediate action. Israel, under Netanyahu, appears to be avoiding a ceasefire, possibly using the conflict as a diversion until the US elections. Rogers highlights the challenges Israel faces in Gaza and the likelihood of air strikes over ground invasions in Lebanon. He also speculates on Hezbollah's resilience and the potential influence of the US elections on the Middle East's future.
Takeaways
- 🇺🇸 The United States is in a position to influence a ceasefire in Lebanon but is hesitant due to internal political reasons.
- 🕊️ Israel is not seeking a ceasefire at the moment, especially before the upcoming elections, and is focused on weakening Hezbollah's morale.
- 🚫 It is unlikely that Israel will attempt to occupy Southern Lebanon due to past experiences and the high cost in terms of troop losses.
- 🔄 The far-right in Israel may desire a re-occupation of Southern Lebanon, but such a move is not supported by the majority or practical considerations.
- 🛑 The 'Dahiya Doctrine' is being applied by Israel, which involves punishing the civilian population to weaken support for insurgents.
- 🔥 The Gaza Strip has been a site of the application of the Dahiya Doctrine, indicating a broader strategy by Israel.
- 🤔 Israel's inability to eliminate Hamas in Gaza suggests that the conflict there is not going as planned for them.
- 💥 Netanyahu might be using the conflict in Lebanon as a diversion tactic until the U.S. elections, hinting at the potential influence of those elections on the region.
- 🌐 The outcome of the U.S. elections could significantly impact the situation in the Middle East, with different policies potentially leading to different outcomes.
- 🔍 Despite recent Israeli successes, Hezbollah is expected to be resilient, possibly due to pre-planning and the ability to operate with minimal central coordination.
Q & A
What is Paul Rogers' view on the United States' ability to influence the situation in Lebanon?
-Paul Rogers believes that the United States has the power to call for a halt to the conflict within days if it decides to, but due to internal politics, it is not prepared to do so at the moment.
How does Rogers think the situation in Lebanon has impacted Hezbollah?
-Rogers suggests that Hezbollah was not entirely surprised by the events, although the scale may have been a shock. Hezbollah is likely prepared for such scenarios, even if they could not predict specifics.
What is Rogers' analysis of Israel's intentions regarding a ceasefire?
-According to Rogers, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu does not want a ceasefire before the next elections and is unlikely to change this stance regardless of the upcoming US presidential elections.
Why is Israel unlikely to occupy Southern Lebanon again, according to Paul Rogers?
-Rogers points out that Israel's previous occupation of Southern Lebanon between 1982 and 1990 was costly, with 500 troops lost to raids, leading to their withdrawal. The experience from 2006 also showed significant challenges and losses for Israel, making another occupation unlikely.
What is the Dahr Doctrine as mentioned by Paul Rogers?
-The Dahr Doctrine refers to a strategy of punishing the wider community to diminish support for insurgents, which has been applied in various conflicts, including by Israel in the Gaza Strip and historically by other nations.
How does Rogers assess the effectiveness of the war in Gaza from Israel's perspective?
-Rogers suggests that the war in Gaza is failing for Israel as they cannot eliminate Hamas, and any agreement that allows Hamas to maintain a presence in Gaza is unacceptable to them.
What does Rogers think might be the fundamental reason behind Netanyahu's actions in Lebanon?
-Rogers speculates that Netanyahu's actions could be a diversion tactic until the American elections, as the outcome could significantly influence the situation in the Middle East.
What type of military actions does Rogers expect from Israel in Lebanon?
-Rogers anticipates that Israel's actions will primarily involve air strikes, with the possibility of other disruptions, but not a major ground invasion.
How does Rogers describe Hezbollah's preparedness for the current situation?
-Rogers believes that Hezbollah is likely to be more resilient than expected, with individual groups or platoons having freedom of action and possibly pre-planned strategies that require minimal communication.
What does Rogers imply about the potential resilience of Hezbollah despite the challenges?
-Rogers suggests that Hezbollah's resilience could be higher than anticipated, as they have managed to maintain control despite previous losses and the current situation.
Outlines
🌎 Middle East Conflict Analysis
In this segment, Paul Rogers, an Emeritus professor of Peace Studies at the University of Bradford, provides an analysis of recent large-scale attacks in Lebanon. He discusses the United States' potential influence on a ceasefire, Israel's stance under Netanyahu, and the likelihood of a ground invasion. Rogers also touches on the historical context of Israeli-Hezbollah conflicts, the far-right's influence on Israeli politics, and the potential for a diversionary war leading up to the American elections.
🛡 Hezbollah's Resilience and Strategy
The second paragraph delves into Hezbollah's operational capabilities and strategies. Rogers suggests that despite Israel's military advancements, Hezbollah is likely to maintain resilience, possibly due to pre-planned operations that require minimal communication. He reflects on Israel's past loss of control in Gaza and the potential for Hezbollah to be more resilient than expected. The discussion concludes with Rogers' thoughts on the broader implications of the conflict and the importance of the upcoming American elections for the Middle East.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Ceasefire
💡Internal US Politics
💡Netanyahu
💡Hesah
💡Doctrine
💡Gaza Strip
💡Counterinsurgency
💡Resilience
💡Air Strikes
💡American Elections
Highlights
The United States could potentially call for a ceasefire in Lebanon within days but is currently hesitant due to internal politics.
Hezbollah was not entirely surprised by the attacks but the scale was shocking in the short term.
Israel is unlikely to seek a ceasefire before the next elections, reflecting Netanyahu's political stance.
The possibility of a Donald Trump presidency could significantly alter the situation post-January.
Israel's strategy aims to damage Hezbollah's psychology through military actions.
Israel is highly unlikely to attempt long-term occupation of Southern Lebanon due to historical precedents.
The far-right in Israel may desire occupation, but it is not a consensus and is unlikely to happen.
The Dahr Doctrine, named after a district in Beirut, suggests punishing the population to diminish support for insurgents.
The Gaza Strip has seen the Dahr Doctrine in action over the past year.
Israel's war in Gaza is failing as they cannot eliminate Hamas, creating a strategic dilemma.
Netanyahu's war in Lebanon could be a diversion tactic until the American elections.
The outcome of the American elections could have a significant impact on the Middle East.
Israel's military strategy will likely focus on air strikes and short-term probing attacks.
Hezbollah is expected to be resilient, with individual groups having freedom of action and pre-planned strategies.
Israel's loss of control in Gaza a year ago was a shock, indicating potential for unexpected outcomes.
Transcripts
and good news we've been able to fix
sound with Paul Rogers Emeritus
professor of Peace studies at the
University of Bradford uh Paul thank you
very much thanks for your patience we
got it fixed okay tell us your analysis
of the last 48 hours and the attacks
large scale attacks in
Lebanon well look at it from the
different perspectives for the United
States it wants some sort of ceasefire
the United States is in the position to
call this wall a halt within days if it
decided to do so but for various reasons
connected with internal us politics it's
not prepared to do that so in that sense
it is trying to get some sort of easing
of the current tensions and maybe a
cease fire on the hesah side they've
been expecting something like this at
some stage they were never sure and what
has happened I think has been quite a
shock to them in the short term but not
in the longer term as far as Israel is
concern I think it's it's pretty clear
that Netanyahu does not want to cease
fire of any form at the presid time
certainly not before the next elections
of of course we may may well have Donald
Trump in the white house then which will
put a very different complexion on
things come January and I think what
we're seeing now is Israel is trying to
damage the almost the psychology of
holah uh by what they're doing but the
thing one has to remember is that Israel
is highly unlikely to try to occupy
Southern Lebanon um H I think it was H
early on from from a man was saying that
essentially what they want is the
occupation of Southern Lebanon but you
know in
198 to jump in that was the far right
specifically right I asked her what the
far right wants because over the last
year we've seen Benjamin Netanyahu side
with them several
times no you're quite right this the
question more specifically to her about
the the far right but there are elements
within Israel society which probably
extends a bit beyond them who would like
to see s of occupation but that is
hugely different when the Israelis
occupied Southern Lebon between what was
it 82 and 90 that was when hesa was
actually formed as an opposition party
and over those eight years or so the
Israelis lost 500 of their troops uh to
different sorts of raids and essentially
they got out and in 2006 which was the
last major war the Israelis had huge
problems in trying to do even short-term
occupation to get launch sites and they
lost a lot of their key troops so what
one has to remember is whatever these is
it going to do it is highly unlikely to
involve any kind of ground incursion
above a very short probing attack which
means in turns that it's when the tah
Doctrine comes in you actually have to
try and publish um punish The Wider
community and I some ways I didn't I
didn't hear you there What doctrine
sorry the D Doctrine it it basically is
named after the district just south of
Central barut and this is where you
cannot win a war
uh of counterinsurgency if you like then
you have to try and punish the
population so that support for the
insurgents actually diminishes it's not
solely true of Israel other countries
have done it in different circumstances
notably the Russians at the time of the
gry wars but essentially this is would
it be fair to say that Doctrine has been
at play in the Gaza Strip for the last
year absolutely it's been very clear and
in many ways if you look at what some of
the Israelis strategic analysts are
saying they will certainly be open to
this but this in fact sir takes us to
the next point in in a sense the war in
Gaza is failing as far as Israelis are
concerned they cannot actually get rid
of Hamas and any kind of agreement which
allows Hamas any kind of presence in
Gaza um even just to exist there has to
be unacceptable so they are in a major
bind then it may well be that the
fundamental reason why Netanyahu is
going for this phase of a war in Lebanon
is a gigantic diversion at least until
the American elections I think a lot is
being pinned on the results of those
particular elections which does mean a
lot actually hinges on them as far as
the Middle East is
concerned okay when you say the reason
Netanyahu is going for this phase of the
war what is I mean what do you expect
that to actually look like because
you're also said you don't expect to see
a major ground invasion of Lebanon so
what do you think it's going to look
like
I think it'll be much more air strikes
basically there may well be other
disruptions they may be capable of
though doing other disruptions and
certainly what has happened in the last
48 hours makes life a lot more difficult
for hesah its leadership and its
Communications but one suspect that hbar
and Away was always prepared for
something like this even if it could not
be specific and if it was then what
we'll be prepared to do is to give the
individual groups uh the IND idual
platoon almost certainly at low level on
the hesar side freedom of action and
there will be some sort of pre-planning
which may not even require much in the
way of communications they're very
conscious of their ability to do this
but one has to remember that this has
seems to be an extraordinary achievement
for the Israelis but almost a year ago
they were absolutely shocked when they
lost control of Gaza so one has to
always look at it in the round and it
may well be that hesal itself is going
to be more um resilient than we would
expect it could be wrong on that but I
think that's highly likely and Paul
Roger Emeritus professor of Peace
studies at the University of Bradford we
thankful for your time this hour thank
you for joining us thank
you make sure to subscribe to our
channel to get the latest news from alaz
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