J-POW JUST SEALED THE MARKET'S FATE!!
Summary
TLDRDie Skriptanalyse zeigt, dass die Arbeitsmarktsituation und Inflation die wirtschaftliche Landschaft prägen. Die FOMC-Politik soll anpassen, und es wird erwartet, dass Zinssenkungen kommen. Aktien riefen nach Aussagen von Fed-Chef Powell positive Reaktionen hervor, während der Fokus auf Rohstoffe, Währungen und die geopolitische Situation liegt. Zusätzlich wird die Bedeutung von Gold als Schutz vor Inflation und wirtschaftlichen Unsicherheiten betont.
Takeaways
- 📉 Der Arbeitsmarkt wird in naher Zukunft keine erhöhten inflationsbedingten Druck ausüben; es wird keine weiteren Kühlungseffekte im Arbeitsmarkt gesucht oder begrüßt.
- 💹 Die Wirtschaft wächst weiterhin mit einem soliden Tempo, während Inflation und Arbeitsmarktdaten eine sich entwickelnde Situation zeigen.
- 🔄 Die Risiken für Inflation sind abgenommen, während die Risiken für Beschäftigung zugenommen haben; die FOMC-Sitzung hat beide Aspekte hervorgehoben.
- 🗺️ Die Zeit ist gekommen, die politischen Anpassungen vorzunehmen; die Richtung der Veränderung ist klar, während die Zeitabfolge und Geschwindigkeit von Zinssenkungen von zukünftigen Daten abhängen.
- 📈 Aktien rutschen nach, dass die Zentralbank Andeutungen für kommende Zinssenkungen gegeben hat; die Frage ist, wie groß die nächsten Zinssenkungen sein werden.
- 🏦 Vanguard teilt mit, dass der Aktienmarkt überbewertet ist, während die Bank Japan warnt, dass die Märkte instabil sind.
- 📊 Der Goldmarkt und die Reaktionen auf globale Märkte auf die Aussagen von J. Powell werden im Video analysiert.
- 📉 Ein Inside-Blick in den Goldmarkt zeigt, wie die Reaktionen auf die Aussagen von J. Powell den Goldpreis beeinflussen.
- 🌐 Die weltweiten Märkte reagieren auf die Aussagen von J. Powell, was die Bedeutung seiner Aussagen für globale Finanzmärkte betont.
- 📊 Die Analyse der Charttechnik zeigt, dass der S&P 500 nahe an einem Rekordhoch liegt und dass es bullishe Signale gibt, obwohl es auch bearish Divergence gibt.
- 💡 Die Diskussion um die Aussagen von J. Powell zeigt, dass er besorgt über den Arbeitsmarkt ist und dass er vor einer möglichen Rezession warnt.
Q & A
Was hat der Vorstandsvorsitzende der FED in seiner Rede in Jackson Hole angekündigt?
-Der Vorstandsvorsitzende der FED hat angekündigt, dass die Zeit gekommen ist, die Geldpolitik anzupassen, und dass es mit der Senkung der Zinssätze beginnen wird, je nach zukünftigen Daten und der Entwicklung der wirtschaftlichen Aussichten sowie des Risikogleichgewichts.
Wie hat der Vorstandsvorsitzende der FED die Arbeitsmarktsituation bewertet?
-Er hat sich geäußert, dass die Arbeitsmarktsituation abkühlt und dass er keine weitere Abkühlung will, da dies nicht seinem Mandat entspricht. Er ist zuversichtlich, dass die Inflation auf das FED-Ziel von 2% zurückgeht.
Wie hat die Aussage des Vorstandsvorsitzenden der FED die Aktienmärkte beeinflusst?
-Die Aussage hat zu einer Aufregung auf den Aktienmärkten geführt, da die Erwartung von Zinssenkungen für viele Investoren ein positiver Faktor ist, was zu einem Anstieg des S&P 500 und des Russell 2000 geführt hat.
Was hat Vanguard zu den US-Aktienmärkten gesagt?
-Vanguard hat erklärt, dass die US-Aktienmärkte überbewertet sind aufgrund unrealistischer Erwartungen an von künstlicher Intelligenz angetriebenem wirtschaftlichen Wachstum.
Was hat die Bank of Japan zur Stabilität der Märkte gesagt?
-Die Bank of Japan hat gewarnt, dass die Märkte instabil sind, und diese Warnung bezieht sich nicht nur auf ihren lokalen Markt, sondern auf globale Märkte.
Was könnte die bevorstehende Zinssenkung durch die FED auslösen?
-Die Zinssenkung könnte die Tiere der Finanzmärkte wecken und zu einem Anstieg der Aktienmärkte führen, was wiederum die Realwirtschaft beeinflusst, da ein guter Aktienmarkt zu mehr diskreterem Konsum führt.
Was hat die FED-Zukunftspreis für Zinssätze nahegelegt?
-Die FED-Zukunftspreis legt nahe, dass die Zentralbank mit der Zinssenkung beginnt und dass die Endzinssatzniveaus etwa 3% um Weihnachten nächsten Jahres sein könnten, was auf eine Erwartung einer Rezession hindeutet.
Was hat der Vorstandsvorsitzende der FED über die Inflation gesagt?
-Er hat angedeutet, dass die Inflation nach unten tendieren und er glaubt, dass sie auf das FED-Ziel von 2% zurückkehren wird, was darauf hindeutet, dass er die Inflation unter Kontrolle denkt.
Was hat der Vorstandsvorsitzende der FED über die Gefahren für den Arbeitsmarkt gesagt?
-Er hat darauf hingewiesen, dass die Aufsicht auf beide Seiten seiner doppelten Aufgabe ist und dass die Gefahren für beide Seiten des Mandats beachtet werden müssen, was darauf hindeutet, dass er sowohl Inflation als auch Arbeitslosigkeit beobachtet.
Was hat die Aussage des Vorstandsvorsitzenden der FED über den Goldmarkt bewirkt?
-Seine Aussage hat zu einer Abnahme der Bond-Renditen geführt, was die Goldpreise unterstützt hat, da Gold als Alternative zu veränderlichen Bond-Renditen wahrgenommen wird.
Outlines
📉 Arbeitsmarkt und Inflation: Warten auf die Zinssenkung
Der erste Absatz behandelt die Aussagen von Fed-Chef Jerome Powell aus seiner Rede in Jackson Hole. Powell deutet darauf hin, dass die Arbeitslosigkeit angestiegen ist und die Inflation nachlässt, was darauf hindeutet, dass die Fed bald mit der Senkung der Zinsen beginnen könnte. Die Aktienmärkte haben positiv reagiert, und es wird diskutiert, ob es eine 50-Basis-Punkt- oder 25-Basis-Punkt-Senkung geben wird. Auch die Auswirkungen auf Gold, Rohstoffe und die Währung werden berücksichtigt.
💰 Inflation und Vermögenswirkung: Die Rolle des Geldmarktes
In diesem Absatz wird erläutert, wie die Vermögenswirkung des Aktienmarktes die Realwirtschaft beeinflusst. Es wird auch auf die Struktur der Inflation in den USA eingegangen, die durch die Geldversorgung beeinflusst wird. Historische Daten zeigen, dass Inflation in Wellen kommt und dass die Fed in der Vergangenheit zu spät mit der Reaktion auf Inflation reagiert ist, was zu weiteren Schwankungen geführt hat.
🏦 Zentralbankenpolitik und ihre Auswirkungen auf den Aktienmarkt
Dieser Absatz konzentriert sich auf die Auswirkungen der Zentralbankenpolitik auf den Aktienmarkt, insbesondere auf kleinere Kapitalisierungsunternehmen, Regionalbanken und Kryptowährungen. Es wird diskutiert, wie politische Ereignisse, wie die Unterstützung von Robert Kennedy Jr. für Donald Trump, die Marktmeinungen über die Wahlchancen beeinflussen und somit den sogenannten 'Trump-Trade' beeinflussen.
📊 Analyse der Wirtschaftsdaten und der Rezession
Der vierte Absatz behandelt die Analyse der aktuellen Wirtschaftsdaten und wie diese auf eine mögliche Rezession hindeuten. Es wird auf die unterschiedlichen Meinungen von Experten und Finanzinstituten eingegangen, die sich auf eine kommende Rezession konzentrieren, und es werden auch die Auswirkungen von Zinssenkungen auf den Aktienmarkt diskutiert.
📈 Rohstoffe, Gold und die Reaktion auf die Jackson Hole Rede
In diesem Absatz werden die Reaktionen der Rohstoffmärkte auf Powells Rede und die Auswirkungen auf den Ölmarkt und den Goldpreis diskutiert. Es wird auch auf die geopolitischen Risiken und die Rolle der US-Regierung bei der Befüllung des Strategic Petroleum Reserve eingegangen.
🚀 Kryptowährungen, Gold und wirtschaftliche Ereignisse der kommenden Woche
Der letzte Absatz fasst die Entwicklungen im Kryptowährungsmarkt, insbesondere die Vor- und Nachteile von Bitcoin und Gold als Alternativen zu fiat-Währungen, zusammen. Es werden auch die bevorstehenden wirtschaftlichen Ereignisse der kommenden Woche und die Erwartungen für die Ergebnisse von Nvidia diskutiert.
📉 Aktienmarktanalyse und Aussichten für die Fed-Zinssenkung
Schließlich bietet der letzte Absatz eine Zusammenfassung der aktuellen Aktienmarktanalyse und der Erwartungen für die bevorstehenden Zinssenkungen durch die Fed. Es wird auch auf die bevorstehenden Arbeitslosenzahlen und deren mögliche Auswirkungen auf die Entscheidungen der Fed eingegangen.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Inflation
💡Labor Market
💡Monetary Policy
💡Stock Market
💡Interest Rates
💡Recession
💡Quantitative Easing
💡Gold
💡Cryptocurrency
💡Earnings Report
Highlights
劳工市场不太可能很快成为提高通胀压力的源头。
市场对进一步冷却的劳工市场条件不感兴趣或欢迎。
经济继续以稳健的步伐增长,但通胀和劳工市场数据显示出不断演变的情况。
通胀上升的风险已经减少,就业下降的风险增加。
政策调整的时机已到,降息的方向清晰,时点和步伐将取决于即将到来的数据。
股市在J pal表示即将降息后上涨。
Vanguard认为股市被高估。
日本银行警告市场不稳定。
全球市场对Jal的反应。
堪萨斯银行CEO因诈骗被判24年监禁。
J pal在杰克逊霍尔的演讲中强调了对就业市场的担忧。
J pal对通胀回落至美联储2%目标的信心。
市场预计美国将开始降息周期。
如果8月就业报告显示疲软,可能会有50个基点的降息。
通胀的结构性问题比政府的价格控制要深远得多。
黄金市场和70年代的牛市对比。
零售商对市场的不同信息表明消费者支出的混合信号。
Cara Group报告销售增长并上调全年销售增长预期。
小盘股、比特币和地区银行因特朗普胜利的可能性增加而上涨。
RFK退出总统竞选并支持特朗普可能影响选举结果。
Vanguard认为美国股市因对AI驱动的经济增长预期不切实际而被高估。
BCA Research预测美国将出现衰退,即使现在降息也无法避免。
美联储降息时,股市有时会进入下跌趋势。
全球市场对央行政策转变的不稳定反应。
美国生产力的增长与其货币强势的相关性。
商品市场对Jackson Hole演讲的反应,特别是石油和黄金。
非西方中央银行对黄金的大量购买。
加密货币世界中发生的一起诈骗案件导致堪萨斯一家银行的CEO被监禁。
比特币ETFs为投资者提供了一种安全的投资比特币的方式。
英伟达的财报将是下周市场最大的事件之一。
下周经济日历的重点是耐用商品、消费者信心、GDP增长率和通胀数据。
Transcripts
it seems unlikely that the labor market
will be a source of elevated
inflationary pressures anytime soon we
do not seek or welcome further Cooling
in labor market conditions overall the
continue the economy continues to grow
at a solid Pace but the inflation and
labor market data show an evolving
situation the upside risks to inflation
have diminished and the downside risks
to employment have
increased as we highlighted in our last
fomc statement we are attentive to the
risks to both sides Sid of our dual
mandate the time has come for policy to
adjust the direction of travel is clear
and the timing and pace of rate Cuts
will depend on incoming data the
evolving Outlook and the balance of
risks coming up today stocks rally after
J pal says rate cuts are coming just how
big is he going to cut next month
Vanguard says the stock market is
overvalued Bank of Japan warns markets
are unstable Global markets react to Jal
an inside look into the gold market and
a Kansas Bank CEO just got sent to jail
for 24 years as a big one today guys
let's
[Music]
go and there we have it guys we didn't
get the classic rug pull fact it was
quite a bullish day out there but JP
coming in as expected and pretty much
telling the market directly he's going
to start cutting rates next month and
stick with me cuz I'll dive into that
soon just looking at the S&P 500 now
within a Stones Throw of all-time highs
40 points away with the market color
looking very bullish across the board
now I'm just looking on my main
technical chart here here did just get
the third reversal signal fire off today
last time we got that back in the middle
of July time to top pretty well and we
do have a bit of a bearish Divergence on
the DSi as well however just keep in
mind in technical analysis especially
when charting stock indices or stocks
bearish signals hold much less strength
than bullish signals do in other words
they're not as accurate we can see that
with my reversal signals back in June
and that's because one of the most
bullish things stock IND the sees and
stocks can do is get technically
overbought and stay there for an
extended period of time time markets can
just grind higher on really low
volatility and so we at a bit of a
technical Crossroads in the stock market
this double top bearish Divergence could
play out however we are getting a lot of
other technically bullish signs out
there which I'll show you later on in
this video as well for example why the
Russell 2000 small cap ETF ripped up
over 3% today I'll show you the reasons
why I think that's happened and it's not
to do with JP either because the same
thing I'm talking about is also helping
to get Bitcoin ripping today over 6%
along with regional Banks up over 5% as
well and we'll come back to the charts
later on and I'll show you everything
else that's moving out there to help
give you the overall picture of
financial markets so you can make better
decisions first let's just talk a bit
about what J pal said today in this
really highly anticipated speech from
Jackson Hall the big takeaway is he said
and I quote the time has come for policy
to adjust and just looking in Barons at
some key points of JP's speech this
morning he really talking about the jobs
Market a lot I got the impression
listening to him he's starting to worry
a bit about the jobs Market that last
jobs report first Friday of this month
where unemployment jumped to 4.3% may
have sent a shiver down his spine and
he's worried about this getting away
from him and so he wants to get out in
front of a potential recession and we
heard that with him saying like I'd been
saying recently the risks have moved
from the upside in inflation to the
downside in the economy pointing out the
labor market is cooled enough he doesn't
want to see any more cooling that's not
his mandate he's confident inflation
heading back down to the fed's 2% goal
seems pretty chuffed with himself to be
honest almost like he declared
accomplished on inflation set the soft
Landing for the econom is in play and
bottom line he's about to start cutting
interest rates in the United States and
start embarking on an easing cycle
following his Global counterpart and I'd
say you'd be a little bit nervous what
the next unemployment rate is going to
print at First Friday of September we
get a look at the August jobs data kind
of left the door open that he could
start off big with 50 basis point cut
could have helped the stock market get
excited a little bit today also pulling
back bond yields a little bit as well
with more weakness in the US dollar
affirming the price price of gold and a
few other Commodities today as well I'll
show you on the charts a bit later on so
that is going to be a big print on the
first Friday next month jobs report
unemployment rate that comes in at 44
4.5 he may just go ahead with a 50 basis
point cut according to Goldman Sachs
they expect the August employment report
will be stronger than the July report
and that the FED will cut by 25 basis
points next September but think 50 basis
point cut would be likely if the
unemployment report is soft again and
that's pretty much exactly what I think
as well and there's a look at at the FED
fund Futures pricing of interest rates
going out in the future give a bit more
weight today to a 50 basis point cut but
still about 2/3 of a 25 basis point cut
and I'm going to continue to put my odds
of a 25 basis point cut at 70% however
after today just confirmed what I
thought I'm going to give no chance to
them staying on hold and I'd give it
about a 30% chance the unemployment rate
could tick up and that would induce Jay
to start off really strong with 50 basis
points and get things underway however
that could make him sweat as well
because cutting 50 basis points could
really ignite animal spirits and risk on
markets as well and that wealth effect
can play through to the real economy
most wealthy people have a large part of
their wealth in the stock market when
their portfolio is doing well they're
much more likely to make discretionary
purchases and it's kind of a halo effect
from there so even though inflation's
definitely been coming down and it
appears everything's good for now don't
be fooled inflation could still very
well come back even if the government
does Impe price controls on your local
grocery store inflation's much more
structur and deeper than that with the
biggest part of it being the supply of
money think about the total amount of
goods and services versus the total
amount of currency the more currency you
have naturally the higher o prices are
going to be and so you can thank your
government for being responsible for
about 80 90% of inflation and here's a
look at a 100-year chart of the
year-over-year change of inflation in
the United States and what's one thing
you notice about this chart that's kind
of different to a lot of other financial
markets well one thing that sticks out
to me about the structure of this chart
straight away and what's different to a
lot of financial markets as you see kind
of persistent Trends in the stock market
and commodities up and down whereas this
one's very spiky spikes up spikes down
and it comes in waves it's not just this
nice long downtrend then uptrend it's up
down up down just like we saw in the
1970 Fed was cutting rates in the
mid-70s as well as inflation was coming
down caused a second and larger wave and
sure there's always differences each
time even though there's similarity
geopolitics very similar now to back
then however the US was much more
dependent on the Middle East for oil
back then compared to now however what's
different now is quantitative easing we
didn't have a Federal Reserve create $9
trillion out of thin air and pump it
into markets back then either nor did we
have interest rates at rock bottom for
15 years and so wouldn't it surprise a
lot of people if we did another Spike up
and who knows maybe even higher in the
coming years cuz the fact is no one
knows for sure what inflation is going
to do in a year or two from now JP's not
even sure what the jobs report's going
to come in in 2 weeks from now and I'd
say if this doesn't happen that would be
the unusual thing a lot of people
markets J pal honestly thinking
inflation is just going to do like this
for the rest of the decade that would be
a true Goldie Locks period but I'd say
it's almost impossible given the supply
of US dollars out there and the
likelihood the next hiccup we get in
markets or the economy they're just
going to do the same thing again it's
just hard to see inflation for the
United States dollar getting below 2% or
1% we'd have to see a really deep dark
recession to get that deflation although
that would be shortlived cuz I'd say
they'd just flood the heck out of
markets if that happened anyway way and
so if that potential Resurgence in
inflation over the coming years thanks
to Loca monetary policy does emerge then
what can us as investors do to at least
hedge against that well I've said it a
million times I'll say it once more gold
just looking back at the price of gold
in the 1970s had a huge bull market that
first wave of inflation pulled back
going into the mid-70s and just like
inflation it just shot up to a brand new
all-time high going from $100 an ounce
to almost $900 an ounce in about 4 years
and here we are looking at gold today
he's already the March higher and it's
done pretty well in the last 4 years and
I'd say that's got a lot to do with the
explosion in the supply of new US
dollars for which gold primarily priced
in so just getting back to the data
looking at the Market's pricing of us
interest rates going out in the future
pricing a terminal rate about 3% to be
hit by about Christmas next year pretty
aggressive and you could say consistent
with an expectation of a recession
occurring in that time as well not a big
deep dark one that could take rates
below 2% good news is the Fed does have
a lot of ammo to work with if we do get
a recession being 500 basis points above
zero but I'd agree with Muhammad alaran
I think the Market's pricing in too many
Cuts pretty much ignoring all risk of a
Resurgence and inflation and I guess
this has been a pretty good outcome for
the economy markets and JP now they've
got unemployment turning up it could
have been worse it could have started
turning up when inflation was still
tracking at 4% and there was the risk of
that stagflation scenario emerging and
so fed fund Futures and the bond market
are either convinced inflation's going
to rock bottom or there's going to be a
sharp contraction in the economy to
justify pretty Swift rate cutting cycle
however what about retailers what are we
hearing from them well the message is
quite mixed a lot of companies that have
cut prices like Walmart Target TJX
they're reporting strong quarters
indicating stability with the consumer
we've seen others saying a lot of
consumers are pulling back on their
discretionary spend becoming a bit more
careful with what they buy not really
doing a whole lot of Home Improvement
but it again depends what company you
listen to we just got earnings today
from hot new restaurant group listed on
the stock market Cara Group reporting
their net sales jump 30 5%
year-over-year and raising their full
year outlook to sales growth up to 92%
and this was a bit of a turnaround from
a softer q1 they had they're seeing
higher foot traffic people coming in to
get a juicy steak and of course this is
more the top end of the consumer like I
said if the stock market's Still rocking
they're still happy to be out there
doing plenty of discretionary spending
and the market will reward the companies
that benefit from that we can see that
with Cara Group up a huge 19.6% today on
big volume breaking out to Highs having
a really good year which again is not
normally a thing you would see in a bare
Market a real discretionary stock acting
like this and so you probably saw the
Russell 2000 rip up over 3% today well
Mega cap Tech wasn't that real excited
just up barely 1% and it's normally the
big Tech growth stocks that respond to
the prospect of lower rates and even
though we did get a bit of a bump up in
the semis 2.4% that was nothing compared
to home builders up 4.2% and Regional
Banks up a whopping 5% on big volume
really big solid move there on the
charts and so no doubt A dois J pal
definitely helped small caps Bitcoin
coin and Regional Banks rip up today
however what I think really helped it is
this guy here Robert Kennedy Jr pulling
out of the presidential race and
endorsing Donald Trump which I think's
got financial markets increasing their
odds of a trump Victory and that's why
we' seen the Trump trade coming back on
with small caps Bitcoin and Banks said
to be the biggest beneficiaries of a
trump White House which favors more
domestic company and so RFK could be
Bridging the Gap by a lot of people
caught in the center of this election
and helping them switch over to the red
side and that certainly appears to be
the price action in markets today as
Trump and Vance are more Pro crypto and
Bitcoin than Camila Harris really strong
move there in Bitcoin and we can just
see in the spread of small caps versus
large caps which shut up really big
after the assassination attempt on Trump
then a bit over a week later Biden
pulled out and then Camila Harris which
has been real amazing to watch as last
time she was running for president she
was polling at 4% she had to pull out of
the race apparently now she's 54% and
with that increase in her odds of
winning the election the huge rotation
into small caps that Trump trade had
been getting Unwound this last couple of
weeks however as you can see on the
chart here today we got a big bump up
and I think that's due to rfk's
endorsement of trump likely increasing
his chances of winning have at the same
time we've seen Cala Harris's popularity
grow in the polls we've seen the US
dollar come on off hard as the Market's
getting worried about potential
socialist policies overspending over
taxation leading to a devaluation in the
US dollar flight of capital from us
markets from foreign investors amongst
other things and that's not my political
opinion that's simply the price action
in financial markets and as has been
widely reported from a lot of Wall
Street research houses as well but just
as a side note if you do want my opinion
on anything it's kind of refreshing to
hear a politician like RFK talk about
improving People's Health talk about
improving the diet getting rid of seed
oils getting rid of Highly processed
foods really taking a stand against big
food big farmer the industrial military
complex sensorship I'm sure a lot of
people agree with a lot of what this guy
says I believe his heart's in the right
place and so he could have a real
material effect on this election and
kind of be the swing factor in it all as
he does have quite a large following and
if he's directing people to vote for
Trump he very well just may help him get
across the finish line and all that does
have an effect on financial markets and
us as investors who is leading the US
economy for the next four years and so
he's got guts I'll give him that to
stand up to all these state-run agencies
and call for a complete overhaul of the
system because it's true most causes of
death in the United States is Diet
related and so at the very least it
should be looked at cuz America does
have much lower standards when it comes
to food quality and what can be added
into food compared to other Western
countries and a lot of data and science
attributes that to the big Divergence of
the life expectancy in the United States
versus the health expenditure per person
when you compare that to other country
down the bottom is the spending from 0
to 10,000 per person per year on Health
on the left is life expectancy so
basically America spends way more per
person on health and lives a lot less
compared to these other developed
countries and a big part of that is a
huge cost of Healthcare in America a lot
of people don't seek it because of it
but also a big difference between
America and other countries is the
quality of food generally speaking that
is it's not in every city not in every
instance but just looking at the broad
view of the data RFK is right there is
room for improvement and it should be
looked at for everyone's benefit anyway
I digress getting back to the stock
market interesting to hear Vanguard
normally really conservative doesn't
really like to make big calls and their
business pretty much r runs on
accumulating assets keeping people
invested in the stock market actually
came out today and said US stocks are
overvalued because of unrealistic
expectations for AI powered economic
growth they said firms would need a grow
profit by 40% annually for the next 3
years to match valuation that's double
the annualized rate of the 1920s when
electricity lit up the nation and it's
true looking at long-term stock market
valuations in the United States they are
pretty lofty got some pretty high
expectations of growth in the future
that if are not met could trigger a
decade of underperformance we've also
got BCA research coming out and said a
recession is coming in the US and even
rate Cuts now cannot prevent it they
said every single one of us now believes
there's a recession and that's exactly
the opposite of what the market believes
pointed to a deteriorating US Labor
Market us manufacturing falling to an
8-month low and that things are breaking
down quite rapidly now and it's true
there is definitely a few signs of
softness out there developing in the
economy and just like the inverted Bon
yield curve another thing that's hard to
escape from is the fact a lot of the
time when the the FED Cuts rates here in
the black line the stock market can
quite often go into a draw down that was
especially the case 2008 going into 09
and in the early 2000 did get a bit of a
rate cutting cycle starting in 2019 in
Co but that draw down in the market
pretty much just lasted a month then
prior to the 2000s we did get a little
bit of cutting in the mid90s didn't
really get a draw down we did get a big
easing cycle in the early 90s did have a
short sharp lived recession and draw
down the stock market but it held up
pretty good considering all that and so
it's not reasonable to expect a draw
down in the stock market that are
companies a Fed easing cycle and it's
not really a good sign either when
you've got the world's arguably third
most important Central Bank and their
governor warning that markets are
unstable he's not just talking about his
local market either he's talking about
Global Market we are in the mids of a
transition in Central Bank policy that
can bring about some volatility two
months out from what could be a hotly
contested US federal election
geopolitics still elevated valuation
questionable and the fact now we got the
FED starting monetary policy easing
while the bank of Japan's also signal
more potential monetary policy
tightening increasing their rates we may
not have seen the end of the Yang carry
trade unwind we most certainly could
have another episode or two similar to
what we saw earlier this month on the
5th Black Monday in Japan it's spilled
over to the rest of the world and that's
because the gap between the interest
rates in the States and Japan is
narrowing and that could cause more of
these leveraged y carry trades to be
Unwound and so like I've been saying the
bond market has really been forecasting
this almost throwing tantrum and
demanding JP start cutting rates yields
dropped a little bit more today see that
in the 2-year down to 392 at the bottom
end of this range it's been in the last
2 weeks and the tenure as well at 380
and I'd say that's the market giving
some possibility that JP could cut 50
basis points and I'd say the bond
Market's still nervous about the US
economy however along with the stock
market we've just got a big Divergence
in highe bonds they're not nervous about
the economy at all actually breaking out
to 52 we highs today with high yield
credit spreads really tame 3.2 2 1 on
top of treasuries so markets are
basically expecting the economy to
contract just not a real deep dark
recession but almost a soft Landing or
no landing and even though the US dollar
is weak at the moment and is worried
about what future government policy has
in store for it the fact is US dollar
Reserve is not going anywhere anytime
fast it's still used in the vast
majority of global transactions and the
fact is and I can testify for this as
well as I've been fortunate enough to
travel around the world Americans just
work a lot harder than most other
Western developed countries we can see
that in productivity over the last 20
years has exploded more than the Euro
Zone and United Kingdom and so one of
the big ways how they work out
productivity is the GDP of the economy
divided by the amount of labor hours
work and so America's obviously
technologically out up front but also
Americans work a lot harder than their
counterparts in Europe a lot of
Americans will be lucky to get a day off
for their birthday week or two a year
many of them unpaid however it's not
unusual in Europe to get someone's out
of office reply they've gone on summer
vacation for 6 weeks they'll get back to
you then but my point is a country's
productivity correlates with the
strength of their currency as it keeps
their output strong keeps foreign
Capital coming in and this is just
another reason why the United States
dollar will be the preferred currency
for many many years it's just under
threat at the moment and just moving on
to commodity markets and the reactions
we're getting out of them after Jackson
Hole this morning oil getting a nice
bounce off its support Zone as this
could help demand for oil taking the
pressure off consumers with interest
rates giving a bit more cash and we also
got news the Biden administration had
been buying the dip planishing the
Strategic petroleum Reserve as promised
and that's just another one of the big
reasons keeping crude oil kind of a
gridlock sideways pattern starts getting
to the low 70s government can start
refilling spr still a lot of
geopolitical risk out there starts
getting too high they'll threaten to
release from the spr and the fact is the
worlds a wash with Supply and there is
demand worries as well so it's hard to
see it going above 86 anytime soon we'
have to get a real material supply shock
out of the Middle East for that which
even though we're not getting the
headlines of late it appears Iran may
have backed down however we don't know
that for sure United States continuing
to build up a military presence in the
Middle East one of the largest we've
ever seen in our lifetimes so they're
ready for a full-on regional war in the
Middle East and there's still the tail
risk of that happening which could also
be helping keeping the price of gold
firm in addition to a Davis J pal that's
a Tailwind for the price of gold as well
since it competes for investors Capital
it's less yield on bonds gold looks more
appealing because it's a non-yielding
asset and Bank of America is bullish on
the shiny medal saying investors should
keep buying it is they're worried as
well Fed rate Cuts could bring back
inflation which is bullish for gold
definitely got some momentum investors
are coming back to it we still haven't
broken out to inflation adjusted highs
from 1980 nonwestern central banks can't
get enough of it either Poland using
their recent economic strength further
buy up a lot of gold they're aiming for
it to be 20% of their bank's reserves
and we can see that in this chart here
of the 10 years up until late last year
there been a huge amount of net buying
in Gold Russia's added over 12200 tons
China 1100 turkey 400 Poland India and
other brics nations really moving away
from the US dollar and it's not just
those foreign central banks a lot of
people have worries about the world like
I said you can think of gold as
insurance on your wealth especially if
you've got a lot of it denominated in
the US dollar the fact is it's been a
store of wealth for humans for 6,000
years as many of actual practical uses
and doesn't rely on digital
Communications Network and that's the
main difference between gold and Bitcoin
Bitcoin also has its advantages that
gold doesn't have why a lot of investors
have both good way to diversify out a
fiat currency at least as a hedge or
insurance policy cuz even with how much
real estate's gone up in these last
couple of years pretty much 100 years
ago 10 kilos of gold equal the same
amount as an average house price just
like it does today in other words even
though house prices have gone up a lot
inflation adjusted that's thanks to the
huge increase in supply of US Dollars
gold Hedges out that risk because it's
priced in US dollars so it's insurance
against inflation and the debasement of
your local currency as well and they're
not just gobbling up gold they're also
gobling up silver we've seen that with
China world's still discovering what can
be used with gold and silver we just saw
yesterday Samsung developing a new
silver battery for Ev with a lot better
specs compared to others and just like
AI there could be a global race for who
can accumulate the most precious metal
and just getting back to crypto always
keeps it interesting and entertaining
doesn't it quite often getting these
headlines a crypto scam sank a Kansas
bank and got a CEO sent to jail for 24
years CEO was caught in a pig butchering
scam and for those you don't know what a
pig butchering scam is it's a classic
one as old as the hills named after the
method of farmers fattening pigs up
before being slaughtered criminals
develop a relationship with victims and
convince them to keep sending money
promising lucrative returns from
Investments only to disappear with the
funds later on so it's a common scam
you'll see someone will reach out to you
and they'll offer you something that
pretty much always sounds too good to be
true like guaranteed returns they'll ask
you to send a little bit they'll send
you a little bit more back they develop
a relationship or convince you that
they've found some sort of magic potion
and then they go big then they say okay
send me 10,000 20,000 50,000 whatever it
is and then off they go and so it's kind
of unbelievable a CEO of a bank fell
victim to this and him stealing 47
million from his bank to put in what he
thought to be a legitimate crypto
Investments now he's got quarter Century
in The Slammer and I guess this is what
just makes these Bitcoin ETFs so
appealing cuz a lot of the crypto world
is so muddy murky unregulated offshore
full of crooks criminals everything in
between and so if you can buy an ETF
with black rock as your custodian it's
the safest way for many investors small
and large institutional money for them
to play Bitcoin at the Black Rock
Bitcoin trust I bit now 21 A2 billion
assets under management actually got a
good bit of volume in there today as
well and just looking out to the next
week kind of the tail Ander Q2 earning
season still a few retailers to come in
chewy Foot Locker ab cobby and Fitch
Dollar General Best Buy and a few others
but the big one Nvidia Wednesday after
close that's the biggest event next week
and I'd say the expectation is for them
to beat on EPS estimates Market will be
really looking for Rosy guidance we
don't want to hear any signs of their
customers pulling back on purchases or
planning to pull back on purchases that
could develop a woring narrative of Mega
cap Tech starting to dial down that AI
capex spend have a Jensen hang is pretty
good at developing excitement getting
the hype train going even though he has
been selling a lot of stock in this
period here in fact over $800 million
worth this will be a real test for the
market can Nvidia break out to new
all-time highs help to take semis and
the NASDAQ with it or is it going to
disappoint and we're going to get a big
gap down and the narrative and feel of
the Market's really changed cuz like I
said just looking at the semiconductor
etf's definitely lost momentum this last
few months is consolidating and could be
potentially developing like a head and
shoulders type formation it's not able
clean take out these highs so we could
get a real look at that with nvidia's
earnings next Wednesday just looking at
the economic calendar next week starting
things off with durable goods first up
Monday consumer confidence Tuesday
Wednesday not much Thursday we get a
look at the GDP growth rate rate for Q2
how much did the United States economy
grow in the second quarter consensus is
it did at an annualized rate of 2.8%
that'll be the biggest economic data
print we get next week going into Friday
get a bit of inflation data out from the
Euro Zone they expected to come in
year-over-year 2.3% and then we get some
pce inflation data from the states
headline expected to come in 2.5% core
2.6% year-over-year along with consumer
sediment so that'll be pretty important
one as well to finish the week out GDP
pce and Nvidia ear top three events for
next week and that's pretty much a wrap
for the daily market review this week
guys and there we are on the weekly
chart of the Spy little bit of a bearish
Divergence along with those reversal
signals on The Daily however like I said
they carry a lot less weight than
bullish signals Market's kind of at a
testing Point here at least technically
going back to the daily chart pressing
up against all-time highs with nvidia's
earnings and GDP data then the real big
one will be in two Friday's time jobs
report that's what the Market's really
going to be looking at it's where the JP
starts cutting by 25 bases points or 50
basis points as it's all but certain
that he is definitely going to start
easing pretty much told us that directly
today and like I said in my opinion he's
worried about the jobs Market getting
away from him thinks inflation's all
good for now and the stock market and
high bonds is liking that narrative even
though the US government 10e bond yield
still could be pricing in a recession
around the corner as well either way as
always we'll follow the tape and I'll
keep breaking it down for you every day
thanks very much for sticking with click
Capital have a great weekend and I'll
see you Monday night cheers
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