Influence Diagram Episode

Summary

This episode explores the concept of influence diagrams, using them to illustrate the negative feedback loop in traditional project management (PM). It explains how long projects, often a result of traditional PM, lead to less business value and increased project failures. The presenter suggests that the common response to these failures—to improve PM—may actually be part of a 'death spiral' that perpetuates the problem. The discussion encourages enterprises to consider alternative approaches like Agile or Scrum to break this cycle.

Takeaways

• 📊 Influence diagrams are visual tools to represent how two factors influence each other.
• 🔄 The concept of feedback in influence diagrams can create a cycle of cause and effect.
• 🍽️ An example given is eating leading to weight gain, illustrating a direct influence.
• 🔁 The presence of an even number of inverse relationships in a diagram results in positive feedback.
• ⏳ Positive feedback in this context can lead to a negative outcome, termed as a 'death spiral'.
• 🔍 The script uses a death spiral to describe the traditional project management approach leading to long projects.
• 🛠️ Long projects due to traditional project management can result in less business value.
• 📉 Less business value can lead to more failed projects, creating a negative feedback loop.
• 🔄 The script suggests that trying to improve traditional project management might not break this negative cycle.
• 🚀 The speaker advocates for considering Agile or Scrum as an alternative to traditional project management to escape the death spiral.
• 🤔 The episode aims to make enterprises think about whether their focus on traditional project management is beneficial in the long run.

Q & A

What is an influence diagram according to the script?

An influence diagram is a visual representation of how two or more things influence each other. It helps to understand the causal relationships and feedback loops between different elements.

How does the script illustrate the concept of eating and gaining weight using an influence diagram?

The script uses an example where eating directly contributes to weight gain, showing a simple cause-effect relationship in an influence diagram.

What is the significance of feedback in influence diagrams?

Feedback in influence diagrams is crucial as it shows how changes in one element can affect another and potentially create a loop, which can be either positive or negative.

Can you explain the term 'positive feedback' in the context of influence diagrams?

Positive feedback in influence diagrams refers to a situation where a change leads to further changes of the same kind, often amplifying the initial effect. However, it can be part of a negative outcome, as in the case of a 'death spiral'.

What is a 'death spiral' as mentioned in the script?

A 'death spiral' is a type of feedback loop where positive feedback leads to a series of events that ultimately have a negative outcome or consequence.

How does traditional project management (PM) relate to long projects in the script's influence diagram?

The script suggests that traditional PM, with its focus on extensive requirements gathering and development, can lead to longer project durations, which in turn can affect business value negatively.

What is the connection between long projects and business value as per the script?

The script implies that longer projects, often a result of traditional PM approaches, can result in less business value due to delayed outcomes and potential market changes.

How does the script link less business value to failed projects?

The script suggests a feedback loop where less business value from long projects can lead to more failed projects, indicating a negative impact on organizational success.

What is the typical organizational response to failed projects as described in the script?

The script indicates that organizations often respond to failed projects by trying to improve their traditional PM practices, which may not address the root cause of the issue.

What is the script's suggestion for organizations experiencing a death spiral in project management?

The script suggests that organizations might want to consider alternative approaches like Agile or Scrum, which could potentially break the negative feedback loop and improve project outcomes.

What is the main takeaway from the script regarding project management and influence diagrams?

The main takeaway is that influence diagrams can be a useful tool to visualize and understand the complex relationships and feedback loops in project management, and that traditional approaches may not always be the best solution.