ETH/BTC Outlook

Summary

In this video, the host delves into the Ethereum to Bitcoin valuation, a key metric for gauging the altcoin market's health. They discuss the historical trend of altcoins losing ground to Bitcoin until the ETH/BTC valuation hits the 0.03 to 0.04 range, which has recently been reached. The host also explores potential market outcomes, including the possibility of the valuation falling further, and emphasizes the importance of this ratio as a leading indicator for altcoin performance. They conclude by highlighting the significance of this metric in understanding the broader crypto market dynamics.

Takeaways

• 🚀 The speaker discusses the Ethereum (ETH) to Bitcoin (BTC) valuation, a metric used to gauge the health of the altcoin market.
• 📉 The ETH/BTC valuation has been a focus for years, and it's believed to be instrumental in understanding the overall market movements of altcoins.
• 🎯 The speaker predicted that altcoins would continue to lose value relative to Bitcoin until the ETH/BTC valuation reached the 0.03 to 0.04 range, which has now been hit.
• 🔑 Despite Ethereum's transition to proof-of-stake, deflationary mechanisms, and potential ETF, monetary policy has been the dominant factor affecting its valuation relative to Bitcoin.
• 📊 The speaker emphasizes that market movements don't always align with fundamental analysis, and sometimes broader economic policies take precedence.
• 💡 Historical data suggests that the ETH/BTC valuation bottomed when U.S. interest rates were cut and the Federal Reserve began expanding its balance sheet, which has not yet happened in the current cycle.
• 🤔 The speaker suggests softening the bearish bias on the ETH/BTC ratio, acknowledging that while it may not go lower immediately, it could still reach sub 0.04 by the end of the year.
• 📉 The speaker notes that Bitcoin dominance has not yet reached the anticipated top of around 60%, and without a rate cut or Fed balance sheet expansion, the potential for ETH/BTC to drop further remains.
• 📊 The script mentions the importance of monitoring the supply of ETH, which has recently become inflationary contrary to expectations, potentially signaling a market bottom.
• 📅 The speaker highlights the seasonality of Bitcoin, suggesting it tends to perform better in Q4 than Ethereum, which could influence short-term market dynamics.
• 🌐 The ETH/BTC valuation is considered a compass for the altcoin market; its direction can indicate overall market sentiment for altcoins.

Q & A

What is the primary focus of the video?

The primary focus of the video is the Ethereum to Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) valuation and its significance in understanding the altcoin market.

Why is the ETH/BTC valuation important for the altcoin market?

The ETH/BTC valuation is considered instrumental in helping understand the general health of the altcoin market, as it provides insights into whether the altcoin market will perform well or face challenges.

What range did the speaker predict for the ETH/BTC valuation, and has it been reached?

The speaker predicted the ETH/BTC valuation would range between 0.03 to 0.04, and it has recently hit the upper target of 0.04.

What are some of the factors the speaker believes influence the ETH/BTC valuation?

Factors include monetary policy, market movements, and historical trends, rather than fundamentals like proof of stake, deflationary mechanisms, or ETFs.

What historical event does the speaker reference when discussing the bottoming of ETH/BTC in the last cycle?

The speaker references the interest rate cuts in July 2019, which preceded the bottoming of the ETH/BTC valuation in the last cycle.

What is the speaker's prediction for Bitcoin dominance and its relation to the ETH/BTC valuation?

The speaker predicts Bitcoin dominance will likely top around 60% and that this will coincide with the ETH/BTC valuation finding its bottom, potentially after rate cuts.

How does the speaker view the impact of monetary policy on the ETH/BTC valuation?

The speaker believes that monetary policy often trumps other factors, suggesting that until there is looser monetary policy, fundamentals like proof of stake or deflationary mechanisms will not significantly impact the ETH/BTC valuation.

What is the current trend of Ethereum's supply, according to the speaker?

The speaker notes that Ethereum's supply has turned inflationary in recent months, adding about 60,000 ETH per month, which could potentially go inflationary by the end of the year.

What are the speaker's thoughts on the future movements of the ETH/BTC valuation?

The speaker thinks ETH/BTC could still go below 0.04 before the end of the year, but if it doesn't, then 0.04 may be considered the low. The speaker is also open to the possibility of ETH/BTC finding relief and bouncing back in the short term.

What does the speaker suggest about the patience required in following market predictions?

The speaker acknowledges that predicting market movements can be challenging and requires patience, as it often takes a long time for predictions to play out, as seen with the ETH/BTC valuation hitting 0.04 after several years.

How does the speaker suggest investors view the altcoin market relative to ETH/BTC movements?

The speaker suggests that if the ETH/BTC valuation is expected to go down, it generally indicates a challenging period for the altcoin market, whereas an upward movement in ETH/BTC would be favorable for altcoins.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Ethereum's Valuation Against Bitcoin

The speaker discusses the Ethereum to Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) valuation, a metric used to gauge the health of the altcoin market relative to Bitcoin. They've been tracking this metric for a long time and believe it's instrumental in understanding market movements. Historically, altcoins have been expected to lose value compared to Bitcoin until the ETH/BTC valuation reaches a certain range (0.003 to 0.004). The speaker notes that this valuation has now hit the upper target of 0.004, which they had predicted years ago. They also discuss how despite Ethereum's improvements (proof of stake, deflationary mechanisms, potential ETF), the market has responded based on monetary policy rather than these fundamentals, emphasizing that market movements don't always align with what seems logical based on asset characteristics.

05:01

📉 Historical Analysis of ETH/BTC and Market Cycles

The speaker continues by analyzing the historical performance of the ETH/BTC valuation, noting its correlation with U.S. interest rates and Federal Reserve's balance sheet activities. They highlight that the valuation didn't bottom until after interest rate cuts in the previous cycle and that total assets on the Fed's balance sheet made a significant turn before the bottom was reached. The speaker suggests that while the ETH/BTC ratio may have reached its peak, it could still go lower before the end of the year, especially considering Bitcoin's dominance hasn't topped at 60% and the Fed hasn't cut rates or expanded its balance sheet yet. They also mention the possibility of a bounce in the ratio and the importance of not assuming the market has bottomed out prematurely.

10:04

🤔 Speculating on Future ETH/BTC Trends

In this paragraph, the speaker speculates on potential future trends for the ETH/BTC valuation. They suggest that the market could be entering a phase of final capitulation, potentially breaking established trend lines. The speaker also considers the possibility of a bounce that might not lead to a new low for the rest of the year, suggesting that the current 0.4 level could be the low if it doesn't drop further by December. They discuss the importance of being open-minded about the potential for the valuation to go slightly lower, given the current economic conditions and historical patterns.

15:06

🔍 Analyzing ETH Supply and Market Confidence

The speaker examines the supply of Ethereum, noting a recent trend towards inflation rather than deflation, which contrasts with the narrative around Ethereum's merge to proof of stake. They discuss how the market's confidence in altcoins seems misplaced, given that many altcoins haven't yet reached the lows seen in previous cycles. The speaker suggests that the market may have been overly optimistic, failing to recognize that the conditions that led to a bottom in the last cycle (such as rate cuts and balance sheet expansion) have not yet occurred. They also highlight the importance of tracking all Bitcoin pairs to understand the broader market movement.

20:08

📊 ETH/BTC Valuation and its Impact on Altcoins

The speaker concludes by reiterating the importance of the ETH/BTC valuation as a compass for the altcoin market. They suggest that if the valuation goes down, it's generally not good for altcoins, and vice versa. The speaker reflects on the journey of tracking this valuation and the challenges of waiting for market movements to align with their predictions. They also hint at the possibility of the ETH/BTC valuation returning to the levels where the recent bubble began, which they estimate to be around 0.003 to 0.004. The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding market cycles and the influence of monetary policy on crypto valuations.

Keywords

💡Ethereum

Ethereum, often abbreviated as 'ETH', is a decentralized, open-source blockchain system that features smart contract functionality. In the video, Ethereum is discussed in relation to its valuation against Bitcoin, which is a key metric for assessing the health of the altcoin market. The script mentions Ethereum's transition from proof of work to proof of stake and its deflationary mechanism, which are part of its fundamental attributes being analyzed.

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin, denoted as 'BTC', is the first and most well-known cryptocurrency. It serves as a benchmark for the valuation of other cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum. The video script discusses the 'eth Bitcoin valuation', which is the ratio of Ethereum's value to Bitcoin's, as a way to gauge the overall market sentiment and performance of altcoins relative to Bitcoin.

💡Altcoin

Altcoin is a term used to describe any cryptocurrency other than Bitcoin. The script discusses the performance of the altcoin market in general, using the eth Bitcoin valuation as a metric to identify whether altcoins are likely to perform well or face challenges. The video suggests that altcoins may continue to lose value relative to Bitcoin until certain conditions are met.

💡Valuation

Valuation in the context of the video refers to the process of determining the value of an asset or, in this case, a cryptocurrency relative to another. Specifically, the eth Bitcoin valuation is the ratio of Ethereum's value to Bitcoin's, which helps in understanding the general health and trends within the altcoin market.

💡Market Dominance

Market dominance is the proportion of a cryptocurrency's market capitalization relative to the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies. The script discusses Bitcoin's market dominance and suggests that altcoins will likely continue to lose value relative to Bitcoin until Ethereum's valuation against Bitcoin reaches a certain range.

💡Proof of Stake

Proof of Stake (PoS) is a consensus algorithm used by Ethereum to secure its network, which was transitioned from the original Proof of Work (PoW) system. In the video, the shift to PoS is mentioned as a fundamental change for Ethereum, which theoretically should have reduced the supply of ETH and potentially increased its value.

💡Deflationary

A deflationary cryptocurrency is one whose supply decreases over time. The script mentions Ethereum's deflationary mechanism post the merge (transition to PoS), which is expected to reduce the overall supply of ETH. This is considered a positive fundamental for the value of Ethereum.

💡ETF

ETF stands for Exchange-Traded Fund, and in the context of the video, it refers to a proposed Ethereum-based ETF that could have potentially increased demand for Ethereum. The script notes that despite having a deflationary mechanism and the prospect of an ETF, Ethereum's valuation against Bitcoin still fell due to broader monetary policy factors.

💡Monetary Policy

Monetary policy in the video refers to the actions of a central bank, like the Federal Reserve, that influence the supply of money in an economy. The script argues that despite positive fundamentals, Ethereum's valuation against Bitcoin was more influenced by broader monetary policy, such as interest rate changes, rather than the cryptocurrency's inherent features.

💡Interest Rates

Interest rates are the cost of borrowing money and are a key component of monetary policy. The video script discusses how changes in US interest rates have historically impacted the eth Bitcoin valuation, suggesting that the bottoming of this valuation ratio is linked to interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

💡Market Cycles

Market cycles refer to the recurring patterns of economic activity that include periods of growth and contraction. The script mentions market cycles in the context of the crypto market, noting that the eth Bitcoin valuation has historically bottomed after certain events in the economic cycle, such as interest rate cuts.

💡Supply and Demand

Supply and demand is an economic principle that states the price of a good or asset is determined by how much of it is available (supply) and how much people want it (demand). In the video, the discussion of Ethereum's supply becoming inflationary post the merge and its potential impact on the eth Bitcoin valuation illustrates how changes in supply can influence the price dynamics of a cryptocurrency.

Highlights

Discussion on Ethereum's valuation in comparison to Bitcoin.

Importance of the ETH/BTC valuation for understanding the altcoin market's health.

Historical tracking of the ETH/BTC valuation on the channel.

Expectation that altcoins will continue to bleed back to Bitcoin until the ETH/BTC valuation reaches 0.03 to 0.04.

ETH/BTC valuation hitting the upper target of the predicted range at 0.04.

Analysis of market movements and the impact on the general altcoin market.

The influence of monetary policy on the valuation, despite positive fundamentals like proof of stake and deflationary mechanisms.

Historical comparison of ETH/BTC valuation with US interest rates and Federal Reserve's balance sheet.

Prediction that Bitcoin dominance might top around 60%, correlating with potential interest rate cuts.

Speculation on the potential bounce of ETH/BTC and its implications for the market.

Consideration of the ETH supply dynamics post the merge and its potential impact on valuation.

Discussion on the seasonality of Bitcoin versus Ethereum and its market implications.

Analysis of all Bitcoin pairs and their historical performance in market cycles.

The potential for ETH/BTC to bottom out when Ethereum's supply becomes inflationary compared to the merge.

Strategic hedging advice in the context of the crypto market's volatility.

Reflection on the journey of tracking the ETH/BTC valuation and its significance for the audience.

Final thoughts on the ETH/BTC valuation and its role as a compass for the altcoin market.

Closing remarks and call to action for subscribers and Into The Cryptoverse premium.

Transcripts

hey everyone and thanks for jumping back

into the

cryptoverse today we're going to talk

about ethereum more specifically we're

going to talk about the eth Bitcoin

valuation if you guys like the content

make sure you subscribe to the channel

give the video a thumbs up and also

check out the sale on intothe

cryptoverse premium at intothe

cryptoverse

docomo valuation is is something we've

been tracking for quite a long time on

the channel

um it's it's a metric that I think helps

identify the General Health of the

altcoin market now that doesn't mean

that some altcoins can't

outperform and go against the grain and

in fact we've seen that happen right

there are definitely some alts that have

outperformed and and they've even

outperformed Bitcoin but and thinking

about sort of the General market

movements right over Market movements

the the altcoin market as a whole not

just a few cherry-picked altcoins to

make the case when we talk about the

altcoin market as a whole I do think

that the eth Bitcoin valuation is

instrumental and helping us understand

you know is the altcoin market going to

do well or does it face some you know

some troubles and one of the things that

we've said this year and and really for

the last two and a half years is that

altcoins will likely continue to bleed

back to

bitcoin until the eth Bitcoin valuation

goes to the 003 to 004 range now eth

Bitcoin just hit 04 okay so the upper

Target of the range that we said a long

time ago years ago has finally been hit

after after all this time it's finally

been hit okay and and essentially it's

this range right here right

03 to

004 so this is the range that I I said a

while back would likely be sort of the

eventual

Target by the end of the having year

right I've said many times I do think we

could see dominance

top in September at the earliest could

also top in December potentially

um but it's really nice to see how all

this has played out you know and and it

has been difficult obviously going

against what a lot of people want to

hear and and you know what might make

sense just based on what people say

right fundamentals proof of stake

deflationary

ETF and and you can see this is a great

example of how at the end of the day

none of that actually

mattered

because of monetary policy that doesn't

mean it won't ever matter that's the

thing and that that is what I want

people to understand is that I think a

lot of people might look at it and say

well none of it ever never none of it's

ever going to matter and it's just going

to bleed forever

because you had the transition from

proof of work to proof of State you had

the you know you had this deflationary

mechanism right that theoretically

reduces the supply which is not being

reduced right

now and the spot ETF and all three of

those things you know are not bad things

right they're all good in their own

right but my argument all along was you

know the market doesn't actually have to

make sense based on that

stuff sometimes monetary policy trumps

all of that and this is a great example

of that it doesn't mean that that stuff

doesn't matter at all it's just that

it's probably not going to

matter until looser monetary policy

arrives as it relates to the eth Bitcoin

valuation okay again it doesn't mean it

won't ever

matter it's just that the market doesn't

care about

that until looser monetary policy

arrives and one of the reasons we've

talked about this before is you know if

you were to go look at say

us interest rates right simply just us

interest rates and you looked at at at

at where eth Bitcoin bottomed just last

cycle right we know that it didn't even

bottom until after interest rates

occurred if I can find the

um the the arrow right we know it didn't

bot them until after interest rates

actually occurred and and that is you

know that's the uh the thing that I've

highlighted many many times right we had

interest rates interest rate Cuts in

July of 2019 and then eth Bitcoin

shortly bottomed you know bottom very

shortly later okay so this cycle I just

said look you know last cycle I saw all

that happen and I recognized back then

that it would have just been better to

stick with Bitcoin over

ethereum until Bitcoin dominance tops

which is likely going to be around 60%

and is likely going to occur around the

time of rate Cuts now we still have not

had a rate cut right and remember last

cycle eth Bitcoin didn't even bottom

until two months after rate cuts and so

that is what has kept me on the right

side of the eth Bitcoin chart because

again you know if you go back and look

most most analysts I think have not been

calling for this

drop apart from say you know hardcore

Bitcoin Maxis right but they'll they you

know that's sort of the argument of for

any coin against Bitcoin and you know to

some degree there are most alts do

eventually bleed against Bitcoin

but this has played out right I mean it

has played out eth Bitcoin has tagged

04 which is the upper

Target of the range we set a long time

ago so then I want to talk about you

know what to generally expect from here

okay because this has been a a long ride

now one thing to keep in mind with

regards to eth bitcoin is that it is

tagged this trend line again right so

you can see this let me actually remove

um actually before we get to that I just

want to mention one more thing if you

look at at at total assets held by the

Federal Reserve that was another thing

that helped identify where eth Bitcoin

bottomed last cycle right it was when

total assets on the balance sheet of the

FED made a u-turn that's where eth

Bitcoin bottomed and that hasn't

happened yet okay

so where does eth Bitcoin go from here

now the first thing I will say right and

again this happens a lot is that at some

point in the future it's probably going

to bounce and then everyone's going to

wonder well is that it now that it's at

0.4 right now that it is hit

0.4 I think it makes sense

to soften up the bearish bias on the eth

Bitcoin ratio right soften it up what I

mean by that is not that it can't go

lower it's just that I think the window

for it to go lower is just between now

and the end of the year if it does not

go lower by the end of December then

0.004 is likely the

low but there's a lot of time between

now and the end of December

right the reason why I still think it

makes sense to be open to the idea that

eth Bitcoin could eventually go sub .04

is because Bitcoin dominance has not hit

60% which I think is what the top is

going to be and we know last cycle it

didn't bottom until after rate cuts and

once the FED began to expand their

Valance sheet neither of those two two

things have occurred yet now that

doesn't mean that Bitcoin can't bounce

in fact there's been many times where it

has bounced off of this trend line and

many times where people wrongly assumed

that that was the bottom right I mean

it's happened so much and you know it is

exhausting right I mean it is exhausting

sort of having the same arguments over

and over and over again with people

but I think it's safe to say that you

know the views that I any I I I'd like

to come out and say when I'm wrong a lot

I really do I I hope you guys have seen

that this year I do say when I'm wrong

but this is one thing that I I I really

do think that you know I've been on the

right side of for the last several years

and

um you know I mean it's hit 0.4 it's

bounced back up to

042 you know the bullmark sport Bin's

got to be a lot higher I mean it's all

the way back at 0.5 right I mean it's

it's so much higher than the current

levels so then the question is is like

what's going to happen from here well

one option is that eth Bitcoin bounces

and and then doesn't actually roll back

over again for a couple more months okay

that that sometimes happens where you

know it hits a low like here was in

October and then it came back down in in

January um here's another example where

it hit a low in April and then it came

back down in in May okay so that happens

a lot and you know it's important to be

aware that something like that could

certainly happen again there is also a

chance that it breaks the trend line

okay now I'm not saying that has to be

your base case of course but sometimes

the way you actually enter into final

capitulation is to break the trend line

that you thought you would never break

right and and that sort of leads to that

final capitulation again that doesn't

have to happen but you know if if eth

Bitcoin did something like this you know

and did end did that or something that

could actually Mark the final

capitulation low and then it sort of

builds it way back up in in

2025 if on the other hand right instead

of doing something like that if it were

to just sort of bounce around

here then by the end of the year that

would probably mean that 04 would be the

low if it's unable to take that out I

mean what I mean by that is that if it's

not able to take out 04 before end of

year then I would say 04 would be the

low but because Bitcoin dominance is not

at

60 and because the FED has not cut and

because they have not begun to expand

their balance sheet that's why it still

makes sense to be

open-minded about it going slightly

lower now in the grand scheme of

things eth Bitcoin has dropped from the

highs it's dropped

54% now some people will say it's

holding up well but again this whole

Market has fooled them into thinking

it's holding up well as it just

continues to slowly go down and it's

been a you know and part of I I think

the hardest part for me was in my own

mind being very sure that this was a

likely outcome and just having to spend

so long waiting for it right that's like

the hardest part just waiting you know

being confident that it's likely going

to happen but not being obviously 100%

sure because no one can predict the

markets but being very sure that that

the that the most likely scenario is is

something like this and just having to

wait years you know to watch it play out

um so you know we'll see where where e

Bitcoin goes in the short term but I do

think that you know it could certainly

bounce around a little um and and I I

think there's still a risk of it going

sub .04 it might not happen immediately

one of the things that we've talked

about before you know we' be looking at

like monthly candles on on eth bitcoin

and I mean you can see that it seems

like it's getting into this like final

you know sort of

capitulation that you've seen the last

couple of Cycles where it just really

starts to bleed into you know into I

mean it might even bleed into I mean you

can see this one over here you had three

red candles and then it bottomed in

September there's a chance that you see

something similar like that right you

got three red candles right here you

know what happens if it does break below

this trend line in September and then

that ends up being the low and then

maybe it actually corresponds to you

know the First Rate cut of 50 basis

points last time eth Bitcoin did not

bottom on the First Rate cut but the

last time the First Rate cut was only 25

basis points if it's 50 basis points

maybe that would make it more likely for

it to just simply bottom out in in

September and then what you could see

happen would be something like that

where you know it it it might find a low

in September and then sort of double

bottom in December that's also an option

right that's also an option um and of

course you know it could always go back

up to the bullmark sport band and test

that as well but

I think that the eth Bitcoin

ratio is getting

close to whatever the low is going to be

if it's not already there

okay my base case my base case is that

it will go below

.004 but if by the end of the year it

hasn't then my base case will be that 04

is the low so I just want to be clear

about that right I I think eth Bitcoin

will go up in 2025 is what I think so in

2025 I think e Bitcoin will go up it's

just there's a lot of time between now

and the end of the year and in terms of

seasonality you know Bitcoin tends to

have better seasonality in Q4 than

ethereum um and and and that's you know

that's kind of where I think we are

right now and and so when we talked

earlier about about eth Bitcoin and how

it's useful for for understanding the

altcoin market one of the things you've

probably noticed over the last year is

that so many people have been so

confident in the altcoin market right so

many people have been so confident and

one of the reasons is because you know

they were looking at it and they were

saying oh well the altcoin market is

just here right it's it's basically

there they were unwilling to accept that

maybe it's here maybe it was here back

in

2019 just before the FED cut rates I

think that was what people missed right

they were looking at this they were

looking at the having year but they

should have been looking at 2019 not the

having year because 2019 is when the FED

cut rates right if you overlay us

interest rates that's when the FED cut

rates last cycle and so to me this was

always the more likely you know outcome

and you can see that that is more or

less what has been

happening and the reason the reason that

we knew that that was a likely outcome

again there were still no guarantees but

the reason we thought that hey people

might be getting ahead of themselves is

because when you looked at all Bitcoin

pairs when you looked at those you could

say well you know all these people are

are are so confident right that that

that they're right and that altcoins

have already gone through this entire

process but the thing that they're

missing is that last cycle when all

Bitcoin pairs when altcoins were making

that move that people were hoping they

were making a few months ago they had

already visited the range lows right

whereas this cycle they haven't visited

the range lows yet and so I think that

was sort of the missing component for a

lot of people this cycle is that that

actually didn't play out in 2023 like it

did in 2019 and so you're actually

seeing it play out in 2024 because it

didn't actually play out in 2023 if it

had played out in 2023 then I would have

been right there with you thinking that

it was more likely to be something

similar to that but it didn't play out

in 2023 and you know I think it's a

necessary component of the crypto space

um that altcoins are oscillators against

Bitcoin at best and I think that is what

helped keep me on the right side of of

the market by seeing look guys all

Bitcoin pairs still need to run the lows

and they and they just simply haven't

done that yet and we know that last

cycle all Bitcoin pairs collapsed into

their lows they started the collapse one

month before the First Rate cut one

month before the First Rate cut and you

know you can kind of see something maybe

similar will play out again right I mean

all Bitcoin pairs it's one month about

before the First Rate cut and you know

they're at 39 they're they're they're

below the the initial Wick low at

0.004 um potentially back testing it and

you know I I think there's a good case

to be made that it's going to go down to

0.25 and that in that process I I think

you'll see Bitcoin dominance go to

approximately 60%

so you know all this has played out um

one of the things that I've mentioned as

well is this website over here right

where you're tracking the supply of eth

you know and I I I I've mentioned this

many many times but you know really it

it has turned inflationary in recent

months and I I don't really think I

don't know how many people are looking

at this

but I mean over the last 30 days the

supply is up 56,000 eth right now over

the last basically since the merge it's

obviously still down but it's only down

to -

262,000 whereas back in April it was at-

457,000 so essentially you you've added

about 200,000 e to supply since April if

you continue at this pace right if you

look at at at at what's happened in in

in in 30 days supply of E's going up

about 60,000 e or so a month again by

the end of the year at this pace it

would go inflationary even when compared

to the merge

which might actually correspond to a

local a a macro bottom on the eth

Bitcoin pair just as it goes

inflationary right wouldn't that be

interesting goes

inflationary people finally are like

okay fine and then that ends up being

theow I mean it's possibility right I I

wouldn't I wouldn't put it past the

market for eth Bitcoin to bottom out

when it goes inflationary I mean you

know as as compared to the merge that

would be and the reason why it's

interesting because it's kind of like it

it seems like it could play out like

that right I mean 60,000 e a month you

got about you know four months a little

over four months before it would go INF

inflationary as measured from the merge

it's already August so September October

November December right December now if

it is December it could either be a

double bottom maybe you get one low in

September and then a second a double

bottom in December the other option

right the other I think equally valid

option could be that if e Bitcoin Co

finds some type of relief in the short

term and bounces back up then normally

when that happens it takes a couple of

months for it to then go back down and

put in a lower low right and we've seen

this happen many many times um I mean

even back over here right in May I said

all right when it's get when it gets

this bounce normally you would it would

you would expect it make take about two

months right and then you got June July

and you can see that really at the very

end of July and then early August that's

where it broke down again so you know if

it were to bounce again then that could

take you all the way out until October

before it's coming back down to these

levels again I I it's always worthwhile

to hedge I think um and I I do think

that eth Bitcoin is is actually pretty

close to the lows uh whatever those lows

end up being but I'm just trying to put

out you know the hey these are my

thoughts and um and it's really nice to

see this how how it has played out and

you know I think a lot of people sort of

Mis like they mistake me for someone

that you know wants to see something

happen whereas I'm just saying I just

think this is going to happen right it's

not that I necessarily want what I talk

about to happen it's just what I think's

going to happen based on what you know

historically happens during tighter

monetary policy periods right and I

think that's the trick with investing

and what drives a lot of people um to

make bad decisions is they you know they

they sort of they they listen to my view

about it but they're not willing to to

actually digest that view because you

know it it goes against what they want

to see happen in their portfolio right

so they just ignore it um but again you

know it's more so just a um a thought of

like this is what I thought was going to

happen and and for some reason I decided

to be very vocal about it I I don't

really think I'll be as vocal in the

future but uh it is not I mean it's it

feels like it's been a really long

journey and if you've been on me if

you've been on the journey with me

thanks for being here I I do appreciate

it um and I think we're getting close to

the

end so we'll see you know we'll see

where it ultimately goes as I've said

before a lot of times when you get these

sort of these bubble phases they

eventually return to where it started

from and and that would be what I would

consider sort of right around here um

and that's why you know 03 to 04 always

seem to make the most amount of sense um

because before that right it was just

sort of steadily increasing I wouldn't

considered that to be sort of a bubble

and then it really went up quickly and

that was kind of where the bubble

started and now it's just kind of coming

back down to where that bubble started I

don't think it has to come back down

here but you know that 003 to 04 range

has always you know made I think the

most amount of sense to

me so those are my views on on the eth

Bitcoin valuation um and of course you

know as it as it relates to a lot of

different metrics that we've you know

we've talked about as well that's

important eth Bitcoin is is sort of a

compass for the altcoin market if if you

have a reason to think eth Bitcoin is

going to go down that's generally not a

good thing for alts if you think eth

Bitcoin is going to go up that's

generally a good thing for alts so

that's where we stand I again I you know

I I we've been talking about it for

years thank you for coming along the

journey um and and if you'd ever you

know if you if you were right there with

me every step of the way and and

kind of thinking that all right these

are all just lower highs and and and

people are too impatient you guys know

you guys know how I feel because you

know I've I mean these are weekly

candles I mean look how many weeks this

has taken um and here we are after all

this time after all this time so we'll

see what happens here in the short term

with e Bitcoin um 042 I mean it's just

kind of crazy to look at it right I mean

042 here we are and uh it's been a long

it's been a long time coming but it go

and wrap it up there guys thank you for

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