Bitcoin Update: Is This a Trap?!?!
Summary
TLDRIn this market update video, the host dissects potential Bitcoin movements, offering specific entry points, stop losses, and targets for trades. They discuss the altcoin market's lack of similar growth despite Bitcoin's recovery, emphasizing the importance of counter-trading headlines and recognizing market patterns. The video also explores Ethereum's market behavior post-ETF, suggesting a potential price surge, and touches on Bitcoin dominance patterns, hinting at future altcoin opportunities.
Takeaways
- ๐ The video discusses potential future movements in Bitcoin and the possibility of a trade opportunity based on market analysis.
- ๐ The presenter references a post by Miles Deutscher, emphasizing the tendency of markets to top out at good news and bottom at bad news, advising counter-trading to headlines.
- ๐ The analysis includes a macro perspective on Bitcoin, noting a Range High and Range Low, and suggesting current market conditions may indicate a reversal pattern.
- ๐ The video mentions the pre-calculation of news releases by market makers, suggesting these are timed to manipulate market liquidity for their benefit.
- ๐ The presenter outlines a trading pattern known as a 'broken base', where liquidity is swept and market structure is broken, followed by a retest and potential entry point for a trade.
- ๐ฐ The presenter's plan for Bitcoin involves a retracement and continuation of the upward trend, with specific price points identified as potential entry and stop loss levels.
- ๐ซ A caution is given against trading during uncertain market conditions, advising to wait for clearer signals or better market setups.
- ๐ The video also covers Ethereum, suggesting it may follow a similar pattern to Bitcoin but with specific price points and historical trends to watch for potential support.
- ๐ Bitcoin dominance is discussed, with the presenter suggesting that a drop in dominance could lead to significant gains for altcoins.
- ๐ The presenter predicts that altcoins may continue to underperform in the short term but could experience substantial growth once Bitcoin dominance decreases.
- ๐ฎ The video concludes with advice for both short-term traders and long-term investors, highlighting the importance of timing and market conditions for potential gains.
Q & A
What is the main topic of the video?
-The main topic of the video is a market update focusing on the potential future movements of Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as the broader altcoin market.
What is the presenter's view on the market's reaction to news?
-The presenter believes that the market tends to top out at good news and bottom out at bad news, advising viewers to counter-trade the headlines in crypto.
According to the presenter, why should traders be cautious about trading during the first quarter of a candle?
-The presenter suggests that the first quarter of a candle is the hardest to trade because it represents an opening range where the market direction is uncertain, making it a risky period for trades.
What trading strategy does the presenter suggest for Bitcoin?
-The presenter suggests a reversal trading pattern, looking for a broken base setup where liquidity is swept, market structure is broken, and there is a retest and bounce.
What is the presenter's entry point and stop loss strategy for Bitcoin?
-The entry point is at the broken base after a retest, with a stop loss set at the liquidity point sweep. If Bitcoin goes below certain levels like 57k or 56.5k, it invalidates the setup.
What is the presenter's outlook for Ethereum after the Ethereum ETF release?
-The presenter expects Ethereum to follow a similar trend to Bitcoin after its ETF release, with an initial drop followed by a parabolic rise, potentially reaching 5K.
What is the significance of the 'broken base' pattern mentioned by the presenter?
-A 'broken base' pattern signifies a high-probability entry point in trading, where there is a clear break in market structure followed by a retest and bounce, indicating a potential reversal in the market trend.
What advice does the presenter give for traders who are unsure about their trades?
-The presenter advises traders who are unsure about their trades to sit on their hands and wait for better market conditions, emphasizing the importance of avoiding bad trades and setups.
How does the presenter analyze the potential movement of altcoins in relation to Bitcoin?
-The presenter analyzes the potential movement of altcoins by looking at Bitcoin dominance, expecting a shift from Bitcoin to altcoins once Bitcoin dominance starts to drop.
What is the presenter's view on the importance of counter-trading the news in the crypto market?
-The presenter views counter-trading the news as one of the most effective methods to make money in crypto, as it takes advantage of the market's tendency to react oppositely to news headlines.
Outlines
๐ Bitcoin Market Analysis and Trading Strategy
The speaker begins by discussing the potential future movements of Bitcoin, focusing on the importance of understanding market trends and potential trade opportunities. They provide specific entry points, stop losses, and targets for trading Bitcoin. The analysis includes a macro perspective on Bitcoin's price range, highlighting the impact of news on market tops and bottoms, and the importance of counter-trading headlines. The speaker also introduces a reversal trading pattern known as a 'broken base' and discusses the significance of liquidity and market structure in predicting price movements. They conclude with a strategy for Bitcoin, suggesting a retracement continuation pattern and a potential entry point around $59k, with a stop loss below $57k.
๐ Advanced Trading Techniques and Ethereum Outlook
The speaker delves into advanced trading techniques, emphasizing the value of high-quality confirmation criteria in trading decisions. They discuss the concept of 'broken base' patterns with double confirmation as a strong indicator for trend continuation. The speaker also provides a detailed analysis of Bitcoin's potential to reach $100K once it breaks out of its current range, offering specific profit-taking levels. Additionally, they touch on the difficulty of trading during the first quarter of any time frame and advise patience in waiting for better market conditions. The speaker then shifts focus to Ethereum, discussing its current market position, potential support levels, and the impact of the Ethereum ETF on its price.
๐ก Market Insights on Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoins
The speaker provides insights into Bitcoin dominance and its correlation with the overall crypto market, highlighting historical patterns and potential future trends. They discuss the possibility of Bitcoin dominance decreasing, which historically has led to significant gains in altcoins. The speaker identifies key resistance levels for Bitcoin dominance and suggests that a drop could signal a bullish period for altcoins. They also address the current state of altcoins in relation to Bitcoin's performance, offering a strategic approach for short-term and long-term investors, and encouraging viewers to look for altcoins that may outperform the market despite current conditions.
๐ Final Thoughts and Call to Action
In the concluding paragraph, the speaker summarizes their outlook on the crypto market, reiterating the potential for altcoins to experience significant growth following a period of Bitcoin dominance. They invite viewers to subscribe to the channel for more market predictions and to like the video. The speaker also encourages viewers to join their private Discord for access to trade entries and exclusive market insights, offering a direct link in the video description for interested individuals.
Mindmap
Keywords
๐กMarket Update
๐กBitcoin
๐กEntry, Stop Loss, and Targets
๐กAltcoin
๐กLiquidity
๐กReversal Pattern
๐กMarket Structure
๐กCounter Trend Trading
๐กRisk-Reward Ratio
๐กBitcoin Dominance
Highlights
Market update discusses potential Bitcoin and Ethereum movements, with trading strategy insights.
Advice on counter-trading headlines in crypto markets, as market tops often follow good news and bottoms follow bad news.
Analysis of Bitcoin's macro perspective, noting the Range High and Range Low, and current market structure implications.
Explanation of the 'broken base' reversal trading pattern and its significance in market analysis.
Discussion on the importance of reading news beyond the surface to understand market makers' intentions.
Strategy for identifying entry points in trading using liquidity sweep and market structure break.
Bitcoin's potential retracement to 59k as a possible support level for a continuation pattern.
Emphasis on the high probability of a trade with a double confirmation pattern in crypto markets.
Bitcoin's future price targets, with a prediction of reaching 100K and the rationale behind it.
Trading advice for difficult periods, such as the first quarter of a candle, and the importance of patience.
Analysis of Ethereum's market structure, liquidity points, and potential support levels.
Discussion on the impact of the Ethereum ETF and its comparison to the Bitcoin ETF's market influence.
Prediction of Ethereum's price surge following a retracement, with a target of 5K.
Bitcoin dominance chart analysis and its correlation with the performance of altcoins.
Strategic approach for timing altcoin entries based on Bitcoin dominance levels.
Highlighting the potential for altcoins to provide significant returns during market dominance shifts.
Invitation for viewers to join a private Discord for trade entries and market insights.
Transcripts
what's up everyone welcome back to
another market update in this video
we're simply breaking down what's likely
to happen to bitcoin next and whether or
not there's any potential trade if there
is I'm going to be giving you my exact
entry as well as stop loss and targets
and then after that we're going to look
at ethereum because let's face it even
though Bitcoin is up a consider amount
from the lows at 53,000 the altcoin
market hasn't been giving a similar
reaction if anything it seems that
everything is still balancing on a
knife's edge and that everything can
fall at any given moment so without any
further Ado before I get into this video
just an interesting post that I saw from
Miles deutcher shout out to Miles this
is yet another one of those scenarios
where the market tends to top out at
good news and the market tends to bottom
at bad news so listen to all of you
people who are new to crypto make sure
that you are counter trading the
headlines if the headlines is good then
chances are it's probably the top
headlines are bad well chances are
that's probably the bottom this by the
way was from the Trump speech SL
strategic Reserve hype which marked the
top at least for the moment and does
that mean that Bitcoin is going to just
go on a full-on tank again because the
last time we had bad news it was over
here and the last time we had good news
which is Mount GX looking at the
previous two instances where we had good
news and bad news this was bad news this
was good news and they both seem to Mark
the market top and bottom so doesn't
mean that you know here is you know the
end I wouldn't necessarily say so purely
for one main reason if we look at
Bitcoin from the macro perspective you
can see that we have a Range High and we
have a range low currently after taking
out the range low with the mount GX news
by the way all of this news is all
pre-calculated it's all priced in
there's a reason why they're only
releasing the news after it has swept
the range lows and there's no more
liquidity left to take there is a reason
why this happens similarly there's also
a reason why they release the good news
at the peak for every retail Trader and
their mom to get into Bitcoin before
they start dumping the markets whatever
these market makers are doing is not in
your favor they are out here to make
money not to help you make money so
learn to read one step deeper into the
news and one of the most effective
methods to make money period in crypto
is just a counter Trend the news there's
a reason why they saying buy the rumor
sell the news has always been an age-old
saying because it works looking back at
Bitcoin going back to that range we can
see that the range low has been taken
out and yet the Range High hasn't yet
been taken out if we look purely at
Market structure we can see that you
have a high there that's a low and then
right here is a lower high and then
right here is a lower low and right now
you are in the process of forming a
lower high so it only makes sense that
the market is actually going to tank
from here on out right not exactly in my
opinion like there is always point where
you get a reversal and in my opinion
this is one of those times look at it
this way right in order for the market
to Target any more like swing lows you
would need to come all the way down to
50K now is that likely it depends on the
context as of right now the fact that
you have swept the short-term liquidity
over here and then immediately proceed
to break Market structure is actually a
really great sign for the market to do a
reversal in fact this is my bread and
butter reversal trading pattern and in
order to look at this reversal this is
something known as a broken base where
you sweep liquidity right sweep
liquidity immediately break Market
structure retest and boot right that's
the setup plus the fact fact that you
have very clear you know equal highs
right here 1 2 3 4 highs over at 71k
which is the all-time high this
retracement is just you know part of a
reversal pattern you're going to retrace
and then you are going to continue the
trend upwards that is my plan for
Bitcoin at least for the foreseeable
future at the point where this gets
invalidated is if Bitcoin basically goes
below like 57k 56.5 like if Bitcoin goes
below these levels then you know fair
enough all bets are off then at that
point you know there is it's not
unlikely that we go down to 50 and even
below 50 K but until that happens
there's actually a really good chance
that you know we can bet on this being
some kind of a retracement continuation
pattern and taking a look at the
specifics of where I expect this
retracement to come usually when we're
looking at a broken base we usually look
for the previous level you know the
place where Market structure got broken
to act as support which it did One two
times and then the market went higher
granted now that that's failed we have
to look slightly lower and in this case
it's time to hop onto the 4 Hour chart
to see if there is something that I
might have missed on the daily chart and
as of right now I see that this area
here might be a point of Interest so
let's go back to the daily chart to see
if that confirms as well and boom right
you have also confirmation on the daily
chart that this is a fairly Gap worth
noting which is at around 59k if you
return back to 59k this would still be
very much within the realm of a
retracement and that the market could
potentially pump from here on out now
bonus points if this move right here
also sweeps liquidity you have two lows
right here and if you sweep liquidity
and then immediately pump to break
Market structure I'm just giving you an
example example based on current price
for all we know price could totally
develop like this right where you have
liquidity over here that gets swept
heading into this level and then you
break Market structure this would be
broken base and then this retest here
would be your ideal entry right feel
free to screenshot this but this
essentially would be what is known as a
double confirmation so you have that
initial broken base right here and then
you have another broken base that occurs
here and this my friends is one of the
highest probability entry criterias that
you can ask for in entirety of crypto if
you get that it is a sign that well I'm
not going to advise you on what to do
but at least for me that is a sign that
I should put big money behind the trade
and the reason to that is because we
don't get this high quality confirmation
criteria that often broken base sure
happens every day happens few times a
day even but with the double
confirmation that is just a really
strong indicator that the trend is going
to continue in that way and that there
are interested parties to move the price
in that direction that is the game plan
essentially you want to wait for this
area to get hit ideally there should be
you know some kind of liquidity in fact
let me just draw it out for you guys so
that you guys can take a screenshot boom
boom so you sweep liquidity break Market
structure return this is your entry
point and your entry is going to be
right here with a stop at the liquidity
Point sweep and then your target which I
believe this is a good segue into
talking about targets Bitcoin is going
to hit 100K like once it breaks out of
this range 100K is pretty much certain
so you don't even have to really take
profit anywhere else 100K 95k 98k they
all work but if you want something a
little bit more precise I guess these
would be your levels and even if Bitcoin
were to only go to 94k this would be a
50% trade with a 5% stop loss that gives
you a risk reward of 10 to1 which if you
ask me is a good trade to take any day
of the week now as for right now just
one last bit of advice that I will give
you in terms of Bitcoin and this was
inspired by a tweet that I saw earlier
which is the first quarter of a candle
is always the hardest to trade right the
first week of the month the first day of
a week first quarter of a day I.E Asia
the first hourly candle of a Killzone
now for those of you who don't know what
is Killzone don't worry this is outside
of the premise of this video but what he
means to say is that the first week
right the opening is something that we
call an opening range the opening range
is always hard to trade because we don't
always know what is the direction for
example if we were to look for a trade
right here right now it'll be hard right
because not only is within this range
here price is currently in a premium
zone so we don't really want to go long
because we don't want to buy in a
premium but at the same time the fact
that it's also really close to the
discount and the fact that we have
untapped liquidity right up here with
all those relatively equal highs means
that you know a short might not be such
a good idea like if in the immediate
short term like if you're just taking a
trade that last like a day sure right
just take a short maybe down to there
and you close it out but yet this is the
amount of profit that you might stand to
profit from which is like a 3% move
compared to this a 50% move which by all
accounts I do expect to form sometime
next week rather than this week so just
one bit of advice this is saying that
not every day is a trading day not every
week is a trading week and it's very
much true sometimes not every quarter is
a trading quarter not every month is a
trading month so if you are unsure of
exactly what trade that you want want to
take right now then the best advice
would just be to sit on your hands
because everybody can make money in
trading is avoiding all the bad days and
bad setups in between that causes us to
have a lot of difficulty when it comes
to trading and if you can wait just till
next week where better market conditions
are going to show itself then boom
you've got much better trading
conditions so before I get into how this
will all play out for altcoins because I
think that's something that a lot of
people would be interested to know like
how is this move on bitcoin going to
affect the altcoins let's take a look at
ethereum first now this one's going to
be relatively quick you have your range
high range low in the Range High you
have two points of liquidity in the
range low you have relatively equal lows
although that level has already been
swept you take a look here this is the
low and this low is a lower low so
technically the liquidity here has
already been swept although given the
fact that currently price is looking
quite weak I wouldn't be surprised if
you form basically like a micro range
you should imagine like this box here
this is your Range High which you just
took out and then that's your range low
which you could take out before you do
some kind of a reversal so essentially
we might be looking for a broken base
type of pattern over here with an entry
around here like right here right now
would not be the best entry like sure
you can say that okay this is your
broken base because you have you know
technically broken Market structure
although I would like to see a more
clear Market structure break in my
opinion at the moment I will not suggest
you know buying in a discount over here
such as this like ethereum is already in
a discount and if we were to compare it
to bitcoin Bitcoin is not yet in a
discount so if Bitcoin dumps etherum is
going to continue to dump and so chances
are this golden retracement zone is not
going to hold for ethereum like the
first level that I would personally look
at is this candle body low here and I
believe that this is your true monthly
open from last month and price as you
can see has not yet returned back to
that area so there's a very high
likelihood that this will be the key
area that will serve as support for
ethereum if you remember clearly on
bitcoin we looked for a PD somewhere
along the 705 which actually has already
been tapped terms of ethereum and
usually the second tap doesn't have as
much probability as the first one given
the fact that you've tapped into the
area and you failed to make a new high
in fact you're coming back down that's
not the most confidence inducing sign
that I could see on ethereum for a long
and hence this is a level that I'll will
be looking at which also lines up with a
liquidity sweep on the candle body and
potentially a reversal from here on out
and the exact level that we'll be
looking at is 2935 on coinbase if you're
on a different exchange feel free to
just adapt this to your own exchange for
example if you are using binance then
that number would be 2929 right but the
lines and the candle closes everything
is still the same and in terms of
ethereum do not sleep on this they have
just went through the ethereum ETF last
time we went through a Bitcoin ETF which
I in another video everything is playing
out exactly as I've discussed in that
video so far so if you want to get more
like Market predictions just like this
make sure you subscribed to the channel
and drop a like because it truly makes
my day and in that video I basically
said that for about 2 weeks after the
ethereum ETF gets released I'm be
surprised if you just start dumping it's
normal we've seen it happen on the
Bitcoin ETF as well like if we go back
onto Bitcoin usdt this is the day that
the Bitcoin ETF got released and for the
next 12 days basically it dropped by 20%
and ethereum so far has been following a
similar trend for about 10 days you've
lost about 133% if the price were to
drop all the way down to this area here
it would line up with close to a 20%
retracement but after that Bitcoin went
absolutely parabolic and I'm expecting
ethereum to do the same as well so do
not sleep on ethereum ethereum is going
to hit 5K like way faster than you think
and at every point above that is just
going to be like really really fun times
and by the way if you're interested in
all of the plays that I'm taking in
regards to the eem ETF in order to
profit like a cool 10x over the next few
months we'll link that video that I did
on the ethereum ETF down below
everything that I've said in that video
now even though I posted that video
about 10 days ago everything in that
video is still very much relevant
because frankly put the move hasn't
started yet we are still very much in
the retracement period and so if you
don't want to miss out on that feel free
to check out the video after you finish
this video now that ethereum is out of
the way it's time to talk about altcoins
for a bit because I think that's the
question that a lot of people are
wondering about it's like okay what's
going to happen to allcoins then because
even though Bitcoin has been pumping all
coins haven't been performing and well
if you take a look at Bitcoin dominance
you can actually see a very clear p
pattern between this and the price of
Bitcoin so go down to the daily chart so
even though Bitcoin has been pumping
Bitcoin dominance has been pumping right
alongside it so this right here if you
can see the cursor on the left and on
the right this is the point when Bitcoin
dominance started pumping that's also
the point when Bitcoin itself started
pumping right now the star of the show
is Bitcoin but I actually expect that to
take a breeder quite soon so if you take
a look at the Bitcoin dominance chart
right now you can see that clearly you
have a Range High with 1 two three highs
currently you've just taken out the high
and you have your range lows so the last
time that the entire crypto markets
basically just went absolutely parabolic
was earlier this year specifically it
was the period between December to
pretty much like February and during
that period the Bitcoin dominance
actually fell from 55% all the way down
to 51% right so that's about a 4% drop
and the range lows as it's sitting
currently at least for the very first
level is at 53.7% which is right about
3% from where we currently at right now
and of course you have a level slightly
lower than that which is sitting at
around 53% and if we just take a look at
Bitcoin dominance right now currently at
56.2% and first potential area that you
could like remotely consider as like a
range low I wouldn't necessarily use
this I would much rather you use this is
about 3% lower than where price
currently is and with a 4% dump all
coins went pretty much by 10 to 20x and
if we get a 3% dump from here on out
then we get a 5 to 8X return over the
next few months as the dominance goes
down all in all currently dominance is
sitting you know close to resistance I
understand like for some people they
might look at this and be like okay you
know there's a lot of Blank Space Just
Right Above This level like if price
actually finds support here and it just
like go straight up all coins are going
to absolutely bleed out and don't get me
wrong that is also a valid scenario that
could play out the first level of
resistance in the case that you do want
to look at is at 57.3 we just go back on
the daily chart sorry the weekly chart
and just extrapolate this low or if you
want to line it up with the top of this
Fab Gap be roughly 57.3 to 57.4% that
would be the first level in fact I would
expect some kind of a rejection off of
this level down to perhaps there all in
all I'd say that you know everything's
still going too plan like sure all coins
are going to continue to bleed out at
least for the moment but I think the
time when it starts reversing is going
to be either from here on out or at
around 57.3% which lines up to the
scenario that we discussed on bitcoin if
we see a retracement then all coins are
going to continue to bleed out but then
after that as everything goes up I think
all coins are going to start looking a
lot better if you're a long-term
investor this means absolutely nothing
to just continue holding on to your bags
and like sell sometime close to the end
of the year there'll be a good time when
your bags will be up between 5 to 10x
but if you are a short-term investor or
if you're someone who's not yet got into
crypto yet or at least not got enough of
crypto yet then that is the scenario
that I would follow if you want to time
your altcoin entries like feel free to
follow that alongside Bitcoin but the
Bitcoin dominance chart might be your
better friend if you're looking purely
at altcoins of course there are always
altcoins that are going to be outliers
even though the market condition isn't
particularly good right now there are
still going to be a handful of coins
that are absolutely killing it and if
you can find those coins then you know
you're going to do pretty good then just
focus on the technicals of that coin
itself and you're going to do pretty
good of course if you want me to make a
price prediction on a coin that you
would like to see drop it down in the
comment section below and I might just
get to it but for now I've already made
a couple videos on salana mem coins as
well as ethereum ETF beta coins that I'm
looking to focus on over the upcoming 3
to 4 months and right now they're all
still very very relevant so make sure
you go check them out after the end of
this video and if you'd like to join my
private Discord where you can get access
to all of my exact trade entries as well
as my coaches and just get Alpha handed
to you on a platter then click the first
link in the description box below reply
to the first email with Alpha and I'll
speak more to you then bye-bye
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