Why Putin is so hard to overthrow

Summary

The script delves into the power dynamics within Putin's Russia, focusing on Yevgeny Prigozhin's rebellion against the Russian establishment. It outlines how Putin's reliance on security services and siloviki to maintain power inadvertently led to internal strife. The narrative highlights Prigozhin's rise with Wagner Group, his public feud with military leaders, and the surprising lack of intervention during his rebellion, suggesting cracks in Putin's control.

Takeaways

• 📰 Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the private militia Wagner, made headlines on June 24, 2023, for leading an attack on Russian military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don and then marching towards Moscow.
• 🏰 Prigozhin was once a trusted ally of Vladimir Putin, but his rebellion indicated a serious internal threat to Putin's power.
• 🕵️ The KGB, the Soviet Union's intelligence service, is the origin of the security apparatus that Putin has used to consolidate power, which includes the FSB and other security services.
• 🛡️ Putin has constructed a 'wall' of security services, military, and siloviki (members of security services) to protect his power and eliminate challengers.
• 🔄 Putin employs tactics such as giving overlapping responsibilities to security services, forcing them to compete for his favor, and purging ambitious individuals to prevent internal threats.
• 🛑 The failure of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2023 posed a risk to Putin's power, leading to a shake-up within the military and security services.
• 💥 Prigozhin's Wagner group capitalized on the military's failures, recruiting from prisons and using brutal tactics in Ukraine, which increased its influence and Prigozhin's status.
• 🗣️ Prigozhin publicly criticized military leaders, a move that was unprecedented and showed his growing power and Putin's tacit approval.
• 🔍 The feud between Wagner and the military escalated to a point where Putin's security services did not intervene, revealing potential cracks in Putin's power structure.
• 🏁 Prigozhin's rebellion ended with his surrender before reaching Moscow, but it exposed the vulnerabilities within Putin's security apparatus.
• 🔄 Despite the rebellion, Putin has not purged the security services, and there have been continued interactions with Prigozhin, suggesting ongoing negotiations or power dynamics.

Q & A

Who is Yevgeny Prigozhin and what was significant about his actions on June 24th, 2023?

Yevgeny Prigozhin is the leader of a private militia known as Wagner, which has been fighting alongside the Russian military in Ukraine. On June 24th, 2023, his actions were significant because he led his troops to storm the Russian military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don and then headed towards Moscow, which was an unexpected rebellion against the Russian establishment.

What is the historical background of Russia's security services mentioned in the script?

The script traces the history back to the KGB, the notorious intelligence service of the Soviet Union, which was responsible for spying both domestically and internationally to maintain the power of the top leaders. After the fall of the Soviet Union, the KGB was broken up into smaller agencies, each with distinct responsibilities, such as the Federal Counterintelligence Service and the Foreign Intelligence Service.

How did Vladimir Putin consolidate power after becoming the President of Russia?

Vladimir Putin consolidated power by centralizing the FSB, the security service most resembling the old KGB, under his command. He expanded its responsibilities, absorbed other security services, and used it to target oligarchs and rival politicians who did not pledge loyalty to him. He also elevated other security services to create a new layer within the Russian state, alongside the military and the Interior Ministry.

Who are the 'siloviki' and what role do they play in Putin's administration?

The 'siloviki' are members and former members of Russia's security and military services. Putin elevated several of them into his inner circle, along with trusted politicians and military leaders. They are given power and wealth in exchange for their total subordination and loyalty to Putin.

What tactics has Putin used to 'coup-proof' his power?

Putin has used tactics such as giving security services overlapping responsibilities, forcing them to compete against each other for his favor, having them spy on each other, and frequently purging personnel who seem too ambitious or less loyal. These tactics have turned the services and inner circle members into rivals, ensuring that if one rises against him, the others will keep it in check.

What is the role of Wagner in Russia's military operations?

Wagner is a private militia that emerged around 2014 and has been used by Putin as a tool for achieving goals abroad. It has been involved in the invasion of Ukraine, fighting in Syria, and operating in other countries where Russia has interests. Wagner has been known for its brutal tactics and has suffered significant casualties.

Why did Yevgeny Prigozhin's rebellion in June 2023 pose a significant threat to Putin?

Prigozhin's rebellion was significant because it came from within Putin's trusted circle, challenging the stability of his power. It revealed that the security services, which were supposed to protect Putin, did not appear to stop Wagner's mutiny, indicating potential cracks in Putin's control.

What was the context of the rebellion by Yevgeny Prigozhin's Wagner group in June 2023?

The rebellion occurred after the Russian military announced plans to absorb Wagner's troops, which threatened to cut off Prigozhin from his source of wealth and access to Putin. In response, Prigozhin led Wagner in a rebellion towards Moscow, claiming to target Russia's military leaders.

How did the Russian military's failures in Ukraine impact Putin's power?

The failures in Ukraine, such as the inability to capture Kyiv and only controlling parts of eastern and southern Ukraine, posed a risk to Putin's power by potentially lowering the confidence of his inner circle in his leadership abilities and increasing the risk of an internal overthrow attempt.

What was the aftermath of Yevgeny Prigozhin's rebellion for Russia's security services?

Surprisingly, Putin did not purge the security services for their inaction during Prigozhin's rebellion. It was reported that he continued to meet with Prigozhin and Wagner, suggesting that while the rebellion highlighted potential weaknesses in Putin's power structure, the overall system of protection around him remained unchanged.

What implications does the script suggest for the future of Putin's leadership?

The script suggests that Putin's leadership may be under more pressure than ever due to the rebellion and the ongoing war in Ukraine. It also implies that the internal feuds he stoked may be backfiring, and his grip on power could be weaker, although the structure of his security services remains in place.

Outlines

00:00

🔍 The Rise and Rebellion of Yevgeny Prigozhin

This paragraph introduces Yevgeny Prigozhin, a private militia leader who gained notoriety on June 24th, 2023, for leading an attack on the Russian military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don and subsequently marching towards Moscow. Prigozhin, a trusted ally of President Vladimir Putin, emerged as a serious threat from within Putin's inner circle. The script delves into the history of the KGB, the Soviet Union's intelligence service, and its transformation into various security services under Putin's rule. It also discusses the role of the siloviki, a group of security and military officials, in consolidating Putin's power and the tactics he employs to maintain control and eliminate challengers.

05:01

🛡️ Putin's Consolidation of Power and the Role of Security Services

The second paragraph details how Vladimir Putin, with his KGB background, used the FSB and other security services to consolidate his power after becoming president. He expanded the FSB's responsibilities, used it to target oligarchs and dissidents, and created a new protective service for himself. Putin's strategy involved giving overlapping responsibilities to different agencies, forcing them to compete for his favor, and having them spy on each other. This created a complex web of security services that served as a protective wall against internal and external threats, with siloviki members and trusted politicians forming his inner circle.

10:02

💥 The Wagner Group's Mutiny and Its Implications for Putin's Rule

The final paragraph discusses the Wagner Group, a private militia led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, which initially worked alongside the Russian military but eventually turned against it. The group's success in Ukraine, particularly in capturing the town of Bakhmut, elevated Prigozhin's status within Putin's inner circle. However, a power struggle ensued, leading to Prigozhin's rebellion in June 2023. His forces marched on Moscow, prompting Putin to publicly denounce him as a traitor. The rebellion highlighted potential cracks in Putin's power structure, as the security services did not intervene to stop the mutiny. Despite this, Putin has not purged the services, and there have been continued interactions with Prigozhin, suggesting ongoing negotiations or an uneasy truce.

Keywords

💡Yevgeny Prigozhin

Yevgeny Prigozhin is a Russian businessman and the leader of the Wagner Group, a private military contractor. In the video, he is portrayed as a significant figure who turned against the Russian establishment, leading his troops against the Russian military headquarters and towards Moscow, which is an unprecedented move considering his close ties with President Vladimir Putin.

💡Wagner Group

The Wagner Group is a Russian private military company that has been involved in various conflicts, including in Ukraine and Syria. In the script, it is highlighted as an entity that initially worked alongside the Russian military but later became a threat to the Russian establishment when its leader, Prigozhin, rebelled.

💡KGB

The KGB, or Committee for State Security, was the main security agency for the Soviet Union, responsible for intelligence and counterintelligence both domestically and abroad. In the video, the KGB is mentioned as the origin of Russia's current security apparatus, which plays a central role in maintaining the power of the state leaders, including Putin.

💡Siloviki

Siloviki is a term used to describe individuals from Russia's security and military services who have been elevated into positions of political power. In the video, they are depicted as a group that Putin has entrusted with power and wealth in exchange for loyalty, forming a crucial part of his power structure.

💡Boris Yeltsin

Boris Yeltsin was the first President of the Russian Federation, succeeding the Soviet Union's collapse. The script refers to him as the leader under whom the KGB was dismantled and restructured into smaller agencies, which later became integral to Putin's consolidation of power.

💡FSB

The FSB, or Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation, is the main security agency of Russia and the successor to the KGB. In the video, it is shown as an organization that Putin directly commanded and used to suppress opposition and consolidate his power.

💡Oligarchs

Oligarchs refer to a small group of individuals who rapidly acquired wealth and influence in the post-Soviet Russia during the 1990s. In the script, they are mentioned as rival factions that were battling for power and were targeted by Putin's FSB for not pledging loyalty to him.

💡Security Services

Security services in the context of the video refer to the various intelligence and law enforcement agencies under Putin's command, such as the FSB, FSO, and MVD. They are portrayed as a 'wall' that protects Putin's power by eliminating threats and maintaining control.

💡Coup-proofing

Coup-proofing is a strategy used by leaders to prevent internal threats to their power, such as a military coup. In the video, Putin's tactics of giving overlapping responsibilities to security services, making them compete for his favor, and purging personnel are described as methods of coup-proofing his regime.

💡Mutiny

A mutiny refers to an open rebellion against authority, particularly within military or hierarchical organizations. In the script, the term is used to describe Prigozhin's rebellion against the Russian military and establishment, leading his Wagner Group troops towards Moscow.

💡Inner Circle

The inner circle in the video refers to the group of close confidants and high-ranking officials around Putin, including siloviki and military leaders, who are given power and wealth in exchange for loyalty. The script highlights the inner circle's importance in maintaining Putin's power and the potential risk when one of its members, like Prigozhin, rebels.

Highlights

Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the private militia Wagner, stormed Russian military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don and led troops towards Moscow on June 24, 2023, posing a threat to President Putin.

The rebellion by Prigozhin, a trusted ally, exposed internal divisions within Putin's power structure.

The KGB, the Soviet Union's intelligence service, was the precursor to the complex security apparatus that Putin uses to maintain power.

Putin's rise to power involved leveraging the FSB, the successor to the KGB, to consolidate control and eliminate opposition.

Putin's reliance on the siloviki, members of security and military services, to form an inner circle of loyalists.

The use of security services to spy on each other and maintain a balance of power, reminiscent of Soviet-era tactics.

Putin's strategy of giving security services overlapping responsibilities to keep them in check and compete for his favor.

The formation of Wagner, a private militia, which became a tool for Putin's foreign policy objectives.

Yevgeny Prigozhin's background in criminal activities and his rise to power through connections with Putin.

Wagner's involvement in key battles in Ukraine, including the brutal tactics used in the town of Bakhmut.

The internal feud between Wagner and the Russian military, which Putin allowed to escalate for his own benefit.

Prigozhin's rebellion in June 2023, which revealed cracks in Putin's power structure and the lack of a unified response from security services.

The potential implications of the rebellion for Putin's leadership, suggesting a weaker grip on power than previously thought.

The lack of purge in the security services following the rebellion, indicating a possible ongoing negotiation or compromise.

The ongoing war in Ukraine continues to pressure Putin's leadership, while the internal dynamics within his security apparatus remain uncertain.

Transcripts

- [Sam] On June 24th, 2023, this man was all over the news.

Yevgeny Prigozhin was the leader

of a private militia that's been fighting

alongside the Russian military in Ukraine.

The problem, however,

on June 24 was that he was going the wrong way.

That morning, his troops stormed

Russian military headquarters

in the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don.

- [Reporter 1] Armored vehicles and military helicopters

in Russia's Rostov region.

- [Sam] By that afternoon, he was leading his troops

toward the Russian capital of Moscow.

- [Reporter 2] Wagner vehicles

that are heading towards Moscow.

- [Sam] And along the way, he explained why.

(Prigozhin speaks in foreign language)

- [Sam] Prigozhin was suddenly the most serious threat

Russian president Vladimir Putin had ever faced.

The real surprise though was where he came from.

- [Catrina] This was a threat coming

from inside the house.

This was someone close to him who he had trusted,

was really seen as a political ally.

- [Sam] For more than 20 years,

Putin has constructed a seemingly impenetrable wall

of secret police, intelligence agencies,

and military groups around himself

and used it to eliminate anyone who challenged his power,

that is until one of them threatened to bring it all down.

So who are the ones that keep Putin in power

and why did one of them rebel?

(speaker speaking in foreign language)

(tense music)

- [Reporter 3] Its products are riots,

terror, and mass murder.

Its tools are lies, deceit, blackmail,

sabotage, war and revolution.

Its single goal is conquest. It is the KGB.

- [Sam] The Committee for State Security was

the Soviet Union's notorious intelligence service

and it's where this whole story begins.

The KGB consisted of hundreds of thousands

of agents whose mission was to spy both in foreign countries

and inside the Soviet Union.

It monitored Soviet dissidents, media organizations,

and even members of the ruling Communist Party,

all in service of one main goal,

keeping the top leaders of the Soviet Union in power.

The KGB even spied on the military,

the other major force keeping these leaders in power.

(upbeat instrumental music)

By pitting the KGB against the military,

the Soviet leaders maintained a firm grip on power

for decades until one day, they collapsed.

- [Reporter 4] The Soviet Union is dying.

Ooh, the trappings of totalitarianism

in Russia are falling away.

It was the Communist Party itself,

the backbone of the Soviet state.

- [Sam] When the Soviet Union fell, so did the KGB,

and the new Russian President Boris Yeltsin broke it up

into several smaller agencies

with distinct responsibilities.

The Federal Counterintelligence Service was

to prevent threats within Russia.

The Foreign Intelligence Service was

in charge of spying in other countries.

The Federal Protective Service was to protect the president.

And others were responsible for things

like border control, electronic eavesdropping,

and even Russia's many secret underground bunkers.

These are Russia's security services.

In the 1990s, they were dysfunctional and weak,

while around them, new factions were on the rise.

Rival politicians and a new class

of ultrawealthy businessmen called oligarchs were battling

for power under a weakening Yeltsin.

In the midst of all of this,

a young Vladimir Putin had risen

to the right place at the right time.

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(steady music)

In the 1980s, Putin was a KGB officer in East Germany.

Then in the 90s,

he went from a mid-level bureaucrat

to the head of the FSK since renamed the FSB,

then to the head of Russia's Security Council

where he coordinated with all of Russia's security services.

Next, to became Yeltsin's Prime Minister.

Then when Yeltsin suddenly resigned,

he chose the 47-year-old Putin to succeed in.

(Putin speaking in foreign language)

- [Sam] Putin immediately set out to consolidate power,

and he started by calling on the only people he knew

and believed he could trust.

The FSB was the security service

that most resembled the old KGB.

It even worked out of its old building.

Quickly after becoming president,

Putin pulled the FSB directly under his command,

then expanded many of its responsibilities

and had it absorb other security services.

He then directed it to arrest oligarchs

that didn't pledge loyalty to him

and investigate rival politicians.

The FSB also trumped up fake charges

against countless human rights activists,

journalists, and dissidents.

This is how Putin captured so much power in the early 2000s.

He then elevated the other security services

to create a new layer in the Russian state

alongside the military

and the sprawling Interior Ministry, the MVD.

Putin was pulling Russia's thousands of spies,

police officers, and soldiers onto his side.

And like bricks in a wall,

they blocked anyone from rising up against him.

- You have a leader in Putin who really grew up

with that KGB background and has a sense

of how to use these security services to his own ends.

- [Sam] This is Catrina Doxsee,

an expert at the Center for Strategic

and International Studies.

- They purposefully operate in the shadows.

- [Sam] Members and former members

of these services were known as the siloviki,

and Putin elevated several of them into his inner circle

along with some trusted politicians and military leaders.

This was a collection

of close confidants who Putin gave power and wealth to

in exchange for their total subordination and loyalty.

Those influential members of the inner circle

with the siloviki who worked with Putin

before he was president,

like the head of the Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev,

who worked with Putin in the KGB back in the 70s.

Same as the head of the FSB, Alexander Bortnikov,

and the head of the SVR, Sergei Naryshkin,

worked with Putin in the 1990s.

Since they owed their positions to Putin,

they helped keep this wall of security services

and military firmly on Putin's side as he continued

to eliminate challengers well into the 2010s.

- [Reporter 5] The Russian leader doesn't even try

to be subtle anymore.

Opposition leader Boris Nemtsov is murdered steps

from Red Square.

- [Reporter 6] Alexei Navalny, who survived a poisoning

from a nerve agent that CNN helped trace back

to Russian intelligence and the FSB.

Navalny is now in solitary confinement

in one of Russia's most brutal penal colonies.

- [Sam] With all his challengers defeated,

the only factions left

that could hypothetically threaten his power were

in this wall.

So Putin has developed some tactics to coup-proof it.

- Putin and various Russian leaders

before him have always harbored this fear

of the threat from within.

- [Sam] First, Putin gives

the security services overlapping responsibilities.

For example, the SVR, FSB,

and military all have formed units in charge

of spying in other countries.

And Putin has created a new service

in charge of protecting himself,

a responsibility long held by the FSO and MVD.

He's forcing the services

to compete against each other for his favor.

Putin also has them spy on each other.

Just like under the Soviet Union,

the FSB has many agents inside the military,

and FSB agents are often arrested by other FSB agents.

Finally, Putin frequently purges personnel

in these services.

If someone seems too ambitious,

they're replaced with someone less threatening

and more loyal.

Not even the members of his inner circle are safe

from these purges.

Putin's tactics have purposely turned the services

and those in the inner circle into bitter rivals

so that if one of them rises up against him,

the others will keep it in check.

So it was no surprise

when Putin allowed a a new group to form.

Wagner is a militia that emerged around 2014.

Although it was technically illegal under Russian law,

it quickly became one of Putin's most useful tools

for achieving goals abroad.

Wagner helped the Russian military invade Ukraine in 2014

and helped it fight in Syria beginning in 2015.

Wagner also operated in several more countries

that Russia had an interest in.

The person in charge of Wagner was named Yevgeny Prigozhin.

He was an entrepreneur who built several companies,

including one that catered meals for the Kremlin,

where he caught Putin's eye.

- Prigozhin in his young adulthood was a criminal

and he did eventually build

up this business empire using this sort

of gang mafia-style politics.

That sort of background and appetite to take on violence,

to do whatever it takes to succeed,

that really made him stand out to Putin.

- [Sam] So Putin had Prigozhin's Wagner work

alongside the Russian military,

and for years, they seemed to work well together,

but that would change when Putin made the biggest mistake

of his reign.

- [Reporter 7] Vladimir Putin ordering an all-out air

and ground assault on its neighbor.

(frantic music)

- [Sam] Russia's invasion of Ukraine hasn't gone well.

The Russian military first failed

to capture the capital Kyiv, and within a few months,

only controlled parts of the east and south of Ukraine.

For Putin, these failures pose a huge risk to his power

by possibly lowering his inner circle's confidence

in his ability and increasing the risk

that one of them might try and overthrow him.

So Putin has doubled down on his playbook.

He had FSB leaders arrested for providing bad intelligence

in the lead up to the invasion.

He fired more than 100 members of the National Guard,

including its second-in-command,

and fired several military generals.

For Prigozhin though, this was good news.

- He saw this opportunity for Wagner to be presented

as the competent ones.

(Prigozhin speaking in foreign language)

- [Sam] Prigozhin swelled Wagner's ranks

by recruiting men from Russia's prisons,

then pushed them to the front of key battles in Ukraine,

most notably in the town of Bakhmut.

There, Wagner's reported to have used brutal tactics

and suffered tens of thousands of killed and wounded.

But on May 20th, 2023, they captured it.

Wagner's success led it to overlap more

with the Russian military,

while also elevating Prigozhin into Putin's inner circle,

where he began to publicly criticize the military leaders.

(Prigozhin speaking in foreign language)

- Prigozhin has come out publicly saying things

that no one else could get away with saying in Russia.

- [Sam] But Putin didn't step in to stop Prigozhin

because the feud benefited him.

- He could play the two sides off of one another,

thus using each of them to limit the other and in a way,

can disperse some of that pressure from landing on him.

- [Sam] So Putin allowed the feud to escalate.

- Shoigu, Gerasimov! (speaks in foreign language)

- [Sam] Finally, in June, 2023,

Putin's military leader struck back

by announcing they would absorb Wagner's troops,

essentially cutting off Prigozhin from the thing

that gave him wealth and access to Putin.

So on June 23rd, 2023,

in order to survive, Prigozhin rebelled.

(pensive music)

As his forces raced towards Moscow,

Prigozhin claimed he was planning

to remove just Russia's military leaders,

but Putin was forced to go on national television

and call Prigozhin a traitor.

For the first time,

the world could see that Putin didn't have total control

and it was because the feuds he stoked

between his subordinates were backfiring on him.

- This was someone close to him who he had trusted,

that he had given a surprisingly long leash to.

That shock factor was really part

of what gave this such a large impact.

(pensive music continues)

- [Sam] Just before reaching Moscow,

Prigozhin agreed to surrender,

but his rebellion revealed a much bigger problem for Putin.

His wall of security services did not appear

to try and stop Wagner's mutiny,

and many of Putin's top military

and security service leaders were nowhere to be seen.

- We did have evidence that some

of the intelligence services were aware

that Prigozhin was planning something,

but it was unclear as why actions weren't taken

to really stop the advance before it could begin.

- [Sam] This wall has for years successfully defended him

from outside challengers,

but it didn't appear totally willing

to stop one from coming from the inside.

It's a sign that Putin's grip

on power could be weaker than ever before.

Equally suspicious is

that Putin hasn't purged the security services

for their inaction,

and he's reportedly met with Prigozhin and Wagner repeatedly

since their mutiny.

That means for the time being,

the war in Ukraine will continue

to put pressure on Putin's leadership,

but his wall of protection remains unchanged,

cracks and all.

(moderate music)

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