NVDA Stock - Can Bulls Save NVIDIA?

Summary

In this Nvidia update, the creator delves into recent stock movements, discussing Nvidia's performance relative to other stocks like SMH and QQQ. With earnings approaching on Wednesday, the focus is on the uncertainty and potential market reactions. The creator shares a technical analysis, highlighting Nvidia's recent behavior and potential future movements, including the possibility of a 'dead cat bounce.' They emphasize the importance of the 180-183 price range and the risk surrounding earnings. The creator also gives insights into market patterns and shares their thoughts on how technical analysis can help predict stock movements.

Takeaways

• 😀 Earnings for Nvidia are coming up on Wednesday, creating uncertainty about how the market will react.
• 😀 The speaker does not pretend to know what will happen with Nvidia's earnings, emphasizing the unpredictability of market reactions.
• 😀 Despite Nvidia's recent performance (up 1.72%), it's underperforming compared to the broader market (SMH and QQQ).
• 😀 The current price movement of Nvidia suggests a potential 'dead cat bounce', with a short-term target of $180, but a long-term bearish outlook.
• 😀 The speaker highlights that Nvidia needs to break and hold above $180 to become more bullish, with $183 as the key level to confirm the trend reversal.
• 😀 The speaker views the current price action as a bear flag and a potential bull trap, warning of the risk of further downside.
• 😀 A major breakdown and subsequent rally up to the Fibonacci levels are seen as typical of dead cat bounces, where the stock fails to maintain momentum.
• 😀 The speaker explains that Fibonacci retracements are crucial to understanding the stock's potential move, with 180 being an important resistance level.
• 😀 Until Nvidia breaks above the $183 level, the speaker remains skeptical of a bullish reversal, viewing the current rally as a bear market rally.
• 😀 The technical indicators (MACD and SMI) on the daily chart show potential for a positive move, but the speaker remains cautious due to earnings uncertainty and overall market conditions.
• 😀 The speaker emphasizes that no trade is ever guaranteed, and while there are better opportunities in the market, Nvidia may still offer a trade if key levels are broken.

Q & A

What is the main topic of the video?

The video primarily discusses Nvidia's stock performance and technical analysis leading up to its earnings report on Wednesday, with a focus on whether it could be a bull or bear trap.

What is the significance of the 174 price level for Nvidia's stock?

The 174 price level is crucial because Nvidia has consistently held above it in recent days. The fact that it hasn’t closed below this level recently is seen as a positive sign in the short term.

What is the target price for Nvidia in the short term?

The target price for Nvidia in the short term is around 180, possibly even 179, depending on the price action over the next few days.

What is the speaker's view on Nvidia’s current movement?

The speaker views Nvidia’s recent movement as potentially a dead cat bounce, meaning that it could be a temporary rally before a significant drop. They remain cautious about its future performance.

Why does the speaker consider the current move a 'dead cat bounce'?

The speaker considers it a dead cat bounce because of the substantial breakdown Nvidia experienced earlier, followed by a recovery that could be short-lived. The speaker suggests this is a typical pattern where the stock rallies after a large decline, but ultimately drops again.

What needs to happen for the speaker to change their opinion on Nvidia's stock?

For the speaker to change their view, Nvidia must break and hold above the 180 level, and more importantly, surpass 183. A break above 183 would indicate a reversal and could lead to a more bullish outlook.

How does earnings play a role in Nvidia’s potential price movement?

Earnings introduce a lot of uncertainty. The speaker acknowledges that earnings could significantly affect the stock's movement, and because of this, they are cautious in their analysis. Earnings results could either validate the bullish or bearish scenario.

What does the speaker mean by 'Fibonacci retracement' in this context?

The speaker is using Fibonacci retracement levels as a tool to predict potential levels of support and resistance. They note that the 180 price level is near a key Fibonacci retracement level, and if Nvidia fails to break above it, the downside risk remains high.

What are the key technical indicators mentioned for Nvidia's stock?

The key indicators mentioned are the MACD (which is showing a higher low) and the SMI (which is curling upwards). These suggest potential bullish signs on the daily chart, though the speaker remains skeptical due to other factors.

Why does the speaker believe there are better opportunities in the market than Nvidia right now?

The speaker believes that, based on Nvidia's current chart pattern and the uncertainty around earnings, there are other stocks with more attractive setups. They emphasize that there are better trading opportunities at the moment.