TESLA Stock - Huge Week Coming Up! Big Move?

Summary

In this Tesla update video, the creator offers a detailed analysis of Tesla's stock performance, discussing its recent movement, market trends, and potential future scenarios. Key points include the stock's current price range between $300 and $340, with possible volatility post-earnings. The creator presents both bullish and bearish perspectives, highlighting technical indicators such as the SMI and EMA. While the market faces resistance, the creator remains optimistic about a potential breakout towards $400. The video concludes with a look at options flow and notable trades, emphasizing the uncertainty around Tesla's earnings.

Takeaways

• 😀 Tesla stock has recently been showing positive movement, closing over 3% up at just under $330 per share.
• 😀 The stock is currently in a large pennant pattern, with resistance around $340 and support near $300.
• 😀 The upcoming earnings report next Wednesday could lead to volatility, but it's likely that Tesla stock will remain within its current range for a while.
• 😀 The monthly chart for Tesla shows that the stock is nearing the apex of the pennant pattern, which could lead to significant price movement soon.
• 😀 A breakout above the pennant could potentially push Tesla stock towards $400, while a break below could lead it to $240.
• 😀 The 1-hour and 4-hour charts suggest that Tesla stock might be overextended and could experience short-term turbulence or consolidation.
• 😀 The stock is currently facing resistance at the $330-$333 range, a level that has been a challenge in the past.
• 😀 A bearish scenario for Tesla could see it rejecting near the Fibonacci 618 level, potentially falling to the $240 range if it loses $300.
• 😀 For bulls, the ideal scenario involves a push higher after a minor pullback, followed by an eventual breakout of the pennant towards $400.
• 😀 The MACD has shown a bullish crossover, signaling that bulls are regaining momentum, though caution is advised due to overbought conditions on multiple timeframes.
• 😀 Tesla's options flow was mixed, with some notable bearish bets being placed on the stock, including large purchases of 320 put options for August and 245 puts for next week.

Q & A

What is the current trend in Tesla stock according to the video?

Tesla stock is currently experiencing a range-bound movement, oscillating between $300 and $340. The speaker highlights a pennant structure forming on the chart, suggesting that the stock is in a consolidation phase. The stock is expected to experience volatility, especially after earnings, but a major breakout is not anticipated unless it surpasses $340.

What does the speaker expect in terms of Tesla stock's price movement in the short term?

In the short term, the speaker expects Tesla to continue moving within the $300 to $340 range, possibly seeing some chop or consolidation, especially post-earnings. The price could potentially test the $340 resistance, and the speaker envisions a breakout above that level could push the stock to $400.

What technical indicators are the speaker using to analyze Tesla stock?

The speaker uses several technical indicators to analyze Tesla stock, including the Stochastic Momentum Indicator (SMI) on 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily timeframes. The speaker also refers to Fibonacci retracement levels, EMA (Exponential Moving Averages), and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) for further insights into potential price movements.

What are the key resistance and support levels for Tesla stock?

Key resistance for Tesla stock is around the $332 to $333 range, which has been both a major resistance and support point in the past. On the lower end, the $300 level is considered a critical support. A break below $300 could lead to a significant drop to around $240, according to the speaker's bearish outlook.

What scenario does the speaker foresee for Tesla stock in a bullish case?

In a bullish case, the speaker expects a breakout above the current pennant structure, which could drive Tesla stock toward $400. The ideal scenario would include a strong move up, followed by a consolidation in the form of a bull flag around $320 to $315, before a potential surge to higher prices.

What is the speaker's outlook for Tesla stock in the bearish case?

In a bearish scenario, the speaker suggests that a failure to break above resistance or a drop below $300 could result in a decline to around $240. However, the speaker believes this outcome is unlikely, estimating the chances of it happening at just 20%.

How do the technical indicators suggest the stock might behave in the near future?

The technical indicators suggest that Tesla stock is entering overbought conditions on multiple timeframes, particularly with the SMI showing elevated levels on the 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily charts. The stock is likely to face resistance around $330 to $335, and the speaker expects a potential rejection or consolidation in this area before any significant move.

What role does the upcoming earnings report play in Tesla's stock movement?

The upcoming earnings report is expected to introduce volatility into Tesla's stock price. While the speaker anticipates that the stock may experience some consolidation, earnings could act as a catalyst for either a breakout or a significant pullback. The speaker suggests that earnings might not lead to a major move outside the pennant structure unless there's a strong surprise.

What does the speaker say about the options flow for Tesla stock?

The speaker mentions that the options flow for Tesla stock was mixed, but notable activity was observed, particularly with large purchases of put options. Some traders bought $320 puts for August 8th, and others took positions with $245 strike puts for the following week, which could indicate hedging or bearish expectations around earnings.

What is the long-term outlook for Tesla stock according to the speaker?

The long-term outlook for Tesla stock appears positive, especially if the stock can break out of its current range and continue to build on momentum. The speaker views the recent break of a lower high as a sign of a potential trend reversal, with a higher high set for bulls. If the stock continues to show strength, it could lead to a move toward the $400 range in the longer term.