How to Beat PrizePicks With Math: $200,000 in Winnings!

Summary

Derek, a professional sports bettor, shares his journey of making nearly $200,000 in gross winnings using data, statistics, and a strategy called line comparison. Despite being banned from PrizePicks for his success, he reveals how to beat the platform using plus EV betting, focusing on props with high chances of hitting. Derek explains the importance of selecting optimal slip types and using sharp sportsbooks for edge, ensuring long-term profitability. He also introduces tools he's developed to help others replicate his success, offering a free trial for those interested in joining his Discord community for expert picks and strategies.

Takeaways

• 😀 Derek is a professional sports bettor who made nearly $50,000 in net profit on PrizePicks using math, statistics, and data without watching games or knowing players.
• 😀 PrizePicks banned Derek for his consistent profitability, limiting him to only $5 per slip and $25 per day in bets.
• 😀 The ultimate goal of playing on PrizePicks is to choose props with the highest chance of hitting, which requires identifying mispriced odds through line comparison with sharp sportsbooks like FanDuel.
• 😀 Line comparison involves comparing PrizePicks odds with odds from sports books to identify where PrizePicks has mispriced a prop, giving bettors an edge.
• 😀 Using tools like a no-vig calculator, bettors can determine the true odds of a prop and assess its likelihood of hitting, ensuring they target profitable bets.
• 😀 A prop is considered profitable if it has a high probability of hitting, such as the example where RJ Barrett's under 6.5 rebounds was favored to hit at 56%.
• 😀 In PrizePicks, not all bet slip types are equal; two-man power slips and five- or six-man flex slips are the most profitable, with the latter requiring a hit rate of just 54.34% to break even.
• 😀 Three-man flex slips are considered inefficient, as they require a very high hit rate just to break even, making them unprofitable in the long run.
• 😀 Optimal slip types on PrizePicks include two-man power, sometimes four-man power, and five- or six-man flex slips, which offer more leeway and higher profit potential.
• 😀 Derek uses a proprietary tool in his Discord server to scan sharp sportsbooks like FanDuel and Pinnacle for profitable props, sending out the best bets every 30 seconds.
• 😀 The Beat The Sportsbooks Discord offers a free 3-day trial of the tool, with a paid subscription option for $49/month after the trial period. It also includes AI-driven picks with a historical 60%+ hit rate on esports.

Q & A

What is the main strategy used by Derek to profit from PrizePicks?

Derek uses a strategy called 'Plus EV betting,' which focuses on leveraging statistical data and odds comparison to find bets with the highest probability of success. He compares PrizePicks' odds to those of sharp sportsbooks to identify mispriced props.

What happened that led to Derek being banned from PrizePicks?

Derek was banned from PrizePicks after consistently making profitable bets based on statistical analysis. He claims that his success was so significant that PrizePicks limited his bets to $5 per slip and $25 per day.

What is the concept of line comparison, and why is it important in sports betting?

Line comparison involves comparing the odds on PrizePicks with those of sharp sportsbooks like FanDuel to find discrepancies. This helps identify props that have a higher chance of hitting, providing a betting edge.

How does Derek determine the odds for a given prop using a sportsbook?

Derek uses a 'no-Vig calculator' to calculate the fair odds of a bet by plugging in the odds from a sportsbook. For example, if a player’s over/under is set at -12 and -18, the calculator helps determine the fair probability for each outcome.

Why does Derek suggest using the 'no-Vig calculator' for calculating fair odds?

The no-Vig calculator helps strip out the vig (the bookmaker’s margin), allowing bettors to get an accurate view of the true probability of an event. This ensures that bets are based on fair odds, enhancing profitability.

What are the most profitable types of slips to use on PrizePicks?

The most profitable types of slips are the five-man flex and six-man flex. These types only require hitting 54.34% of individual props to break even, which allows for more flexibility and greater profit potential.

Why should bettors avoid three-man slips on PrizePicks?

Three-man slips are considered unprofitable because they require hitting an exceptionally high percentage of props to break even (around 57.74%), making them a risky choice for consistent profits.

What is the 'implied percentage' in sports betting?

The implied percentage refers to the odds of a particular outcome occurring based on the sportsbook’s odds. This helps determine whether a bet is favorable and how much edge it gives a bettor.

How does correlation between props affect profitability on PrizePicks?

Using correlation between props can increase profitability, especially in four-man power slips. Correlated props, such as betting on two related outcomes (e.g., a player to score and assist), can offer better odds and increase the likelihood of success.

What role does the Discord tool play in finding profitable PrizePicks bets?

Derek's Discord tool scans sportsbooks like FanDuel and Pinnacle every 30 seconds to identify the most profitable props on PrizePicks. It automates the process of finding high-value bets and sends them to users in a spreadsheet format.